President Trump & the USA

[leicsmac]

31 minutes ago, MattP said:

This is a brave piece from the (liberal leaning) New York Times by Bret Stephens.

I think a lot of the press and many in the Democrats may have realised they have a bit too far this time in the way they approached this, Cory Booker's comments for me were the most pertinent and really let the mask slip as to what this was all about for the Democrats, elide the question of what it was about as upholding due process was never the intention.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/04/opinion/trump-kavanaugh-ford-allegations.html

 

1

I can see where the guy is coming from with respect to due process - it is important and it's better a thousand guilty men go free than an innocent one be found guilty.

 

However, while false accusations are a concerning thing they are vastly outnumbered by the number of rapes that are either not pursued by police or simply unreported. The low cleanup rate surrounding rape, above all other crimes, is so very frustrating because it is unique in that way, and also unique among such crimes as being (as the guy says) always, without fail, unjustifiable - the only possible reason to rape is to exercise power and dominance over someone you consider beneath you, there is no other reason for it. That means it holds a special place in that pantheon of crimes as it is so inextricably tied to abuse of power IMO. With all of that said...I can't think of a good way to get more rapists the punishment they deserve without calling due process into question - I wish there was a way.

 

Also, I have no doubt that the Dems have their own agenda for delaying things as the article says, but then the Repubs and Trump in particular have their own reasons for wanting him alone too...

 

https://hillreporter.com/the-supreme-court-case-fueling-republicans-rush-to-confirm-brett-kavanaugh-8463

[Wymsey]

The US Senate backs Brett Kavanaugh for Supreme Court..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45774174

Edited 6 October 2018 by Wymeswold fox

[leicsmac]

4 hours ago, Wymeswold fox said:

The US Senate backs Brett Kavanaugh for Supreme Court..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45774174

Yeah, pretty much along party lines in the end (50-48 with one abstention), one Dem (Manchin) crossed the line to save his own rear end in West Virginia but it wouldn't have made a difference if he hadn't because in a tie Pence would have had the casting vote.

 

Guess we'll see how this affects things in November, if much.

 

Edit: Also, I think this has all showed a divide that is deeper along ideological lines than those of identity - "pushes for gender equality, by a number of measures are more popular with Democratic men than Republican women".

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-rescued-kavanaughs-nomination-by-making-it-about-metoo/

Edited 7 October 2018 by leicsmac

[Alf Bentley]

7 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Yeah, pretty much along party lines in the end (50-48 with one abstention), one Dem (Manchin) crossed the line to save his own rear end in West Virginia but it wouldn't have made a difference if he hadn't because in a tie Pence would have had the casting vote.

 

Guess we'll see how this affects things in November, if much.

 

Edit: Also, I think this has all showed a divide that is deeper along ideological lines than those of identity - "pushes for gender equality, by a number of measures are more popular with Democratic men than Republican women".

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-rescued-kavanaughs-nomination-by-making-it-about-metoo/

 

Good point that last one. I really hope this country isn't inevitably going down that same road of bitter ideological polarization, but fear that it is. 

 

The turnout of Democrat and Republican voters in the mid-term elections will be interesting - and so will the results, obviously. 

I feel a November BBC News elections all-nighter coming on, trying to understand that strange (or not so strange?) and fascinating country.... 

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Good point that last one. I really hope this country isn't inevitably going down that same road of bitter ideological polarization, but fear that it is. 

 

The turnout of Democrat and Republican voters in the mid-term elections will be interesting - and so will the results, obviously. 

I feel a November BBC News elections all-nighter coming on, trying to understand that strange (or not so strange?) and fascinating country.... 

There does seem to be a lot of that polarisation going round in a lot of places, and you're right, it never ends well.

 

 

Where the midterms end up I frankly have no idea, there's a whole host of outcomes and each of them has explanations that are plausible. The one thing I can say with some certainty is that if turnout is overall high that will favour the Dems.

Edited 7 October 2018 by leicsmac

[Guest MattP]

15 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

The one thing I can say with some certainty is that if turnout is overall high that will favour the Dems.

That's a bit naive, it depends where that high turnout is. No point in the Democrats racking up numbers in areas they already hold.

 

I'll have a look in more depth at the seats over the next few weeks but mid terms are usually pretty bad for the incumbent. 

 

As an aside I'm glad Kavanagh was elected - I have doubts about him and his competence but the message of not electing him based on an allegation the accuser won't even take up with law enforcement would have been terrible IMHO. 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

That's a bit naive, it depends where that high turnout is. No point in the Democrats racking up numbers in areas they already hold.

 

I'll have a look in more depth at the seats over the next few weeks but mid terms are usually pretty bad for the incumbent. 

 

As an aside I'm glad Kavanagh was elected - I have doubts about him and his competence but the message of not electing him based on an allegation the accuser won't even take up with law enforcement would have been terrible IMHO. 

1

Yeah, hence me saying overall turnout. If it's only high in certain places that could push things one way or the other, but it's no secret that there's a correlation between high total voter turnout across the country and across all demographics and better Dem performance.

 

Of course, there's honestly no way of knowing if that's going to be the case or not - and midterms do tend to be bad for the incumbent, that's another reasonable assumption, but quite frankly given everything that's happened we could both end up looking like idiots come November 7th after something completely unexpected happens.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

 

Some more good analysis from Nate Silver on it.

 

WRT Kauvanagh tbh it was always going to be difficult to get a Repub (or even two, as it turned out was needed) to flip even with the way things turned out - in a way both parties used this as a way of rallying their voters for November IMO and once again it highlights the ideological polarisation. How this has highlighted the way sexual assaults are treated in the US is a whole 'nother discussion.

[bovril]

4 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Good point that last one. I really hope this country isn't inevitably going down that same road of bitter ideological polarization, but fear that it is. 

 

Indeed. I consider myself as quite a liberal person but there are too many defenders of the faith on both sides, liberal and conservative. Too many people who have convinced themselves that they're right and the opposition is not only wrong but dangerously wrong and needs to be defeated and preferably humiliated. A plague on both their houses. 

[leicsmac]

10 hours ago, bovril said:

Indeed. I consider myself as quite a liberal person but there are too many defenders of the faith on both sides, liberal and conservative. Too many people who have convinced themselves that they're right and the opposition is not only wrong but dangerously wrong and needs to be defeated and preferably humiliated. A plague on both their houses. 

Yep, and moreso, both of them hate what they call the "centrists" because they believe they stand in the way of the ideological war that they want.

 

I guess such polarisation has always been a thing but I reckon it really became a bigger factor in the US when Obama was elected - quite frankly, some folks simply couldn't handle a black guy being President, some other folks took umbrage at those folks, and things have gone from there.

[leicsmac]

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20181008-no-civility-is-not-yet-dead-in-politics

 

An interesting study on the nature of political debate right now...apparently discourse isn't quite done for yet, which holds hope that polarisation might be done for in future too.

Edited 9 October 2018 by leicsmac

[Finnaldo]

 

 

 

Slightly worrying scenes, protest over a shooting, but they set up (from what I can scrap together) an illegal roadblock, no police in sight and you have ANTIFA running the whole thing. No wonder it ended up like this.

 

 

 

[leicsmac]

15 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

 

 

 

Slightly worrying scenes, protest over a shooting, but they set up (from what I can scrap together) an illegal roadblock, no police in sight and you have ANTIFA running the whole thing. No wonder it ended up like this.

 

 

 

Sigh.

 

There needs to be a counter to the right-wing populism active in the US right now (someone from Portland got stabbed to death a while back because of it), but taking a course of action that sets the world on fire only works if you want to be king of the ashes.

[leicsmac]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/politics/nikki-haley-united-nations.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

 

Haley has had enough, it would seem.

[Guest MattP]

36 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/politics/nikki-haley-united-nations.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

 

Haley has had enough, it would seem.

Interestinhg, I had that £20 on her to be the Republican candidate in 2020 last year at 25/1.

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Interestinhg, I had that £20 on her to be the Republican candidate in 2020 last year at 25/1.

It wouldn't surprise me if this is indeed her move to stick the knife in Trumps back in prep for her own run. How well that works is going to depend a lot on the midterms and how the rank and file Repubs think Trump will do in 2020, I guess. 

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45818176

 

Example of what I meant by the recent post in the general politics thread.

[MC Prussian]

41 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45818176

 

Example of what I meant by the recent post in the general politics thread.

Have you read the article?

The guy brought it onto himself:

Quote

The woman asked if the children were OK, and requested to speak to them. When Mr Lewis refused, the woman followed him home and called the police.

It could've all ended a lot differently. The woman was (at least that is my impression) following common sense. A man (who happens to be black) has two children with him that obviously aren't his and who refuses to let the children speak. That's it.

I don't see how one can read so much into it.

[MC Prussian]

On 09/10/2018 at 12:15, Finnaldo said:

Slightly worrying scenes, protest over a shooting, but they set up (from what I can scrap together) an illegal roadblock, no police in sight and you have ANTIFA running the whole thing. No wonder it ended up like this.

 

On 09/10/2018 at 12:32, leicsmac said:

Sigh.

 

There needs to be a counter to the right-wing populism active in the US right now (someone from Portland got stabbed to death a while back because of it), but taking a course of action that sets the world on fire only works if you want to be king of the ashes.

I could happily do without Antifa and right-wing nutters, they're both a cancer to society.

 

Just because some people on one side adhere to violence doesn't give the other side automatic rights to existence as some kind of counter-balance.

Skewed logic.

Edited 11 October 2018 by MC Prussian

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, MC Prussian said:

Have you read the article?

The guy brought it onto himself:

It could've all ended a lot differently. The woman was (at least that is my impression) following common sense. A man (who happens to be black) has two children with him that obviously aren't his and who refuses to let the children speak. That's it.

I don't see how one can read so much into it.

And the reason she called this particular guy out (and say, not another babysitter in the area walking with kids, I'm assuming there are some) was...?

 

His reaction to her calling him out isn't great but it's neither here nor there - there was no reason whatsoever for her to profile him like that in the first place, and she clearly did, otherwise you'd be having lots more stories of babysitters being stopped because bystanders think the kids with them are somehow being kidnapped.

 

Not to mention the other stories of police being called for various innocuous scenarios linked in the article.

 

4 minutes ago, MC Prussian said:

 

I could happily do without Antifa and right-wing nutters, they're both a cancer to society.

 

Just because some people on one side adhere to violence doesn't give the other side automatic rights to existence as some kind of counter-balance.

Skewed logic.

2

I'm assuming you meant "violence" rather than "existence" here, unless you're referring to the existence of organisations rather than people themselves?

[MC Prussian]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

And the reason she called this particular guy out (and say, not another babysitter in the area walking with kids, I'm assuming there are some) was...?

 

His reaction to her calling him out isn't great but it's neither here nor there - there was no reason whatsoever for her to profile him like that in the first place, and she clearly did, otherwise you'd be having lots more stories of babysitters being stopped because bystanders think the kids with them are somehow being kidnapped.

 

Not to mention the other stories of police being called for various innocuous scenarios linked in the article.

It's in the article, I'll gladly post the quote again:

Quote

The woman asked if the children were OK, and requested to speak to them. When Mr Lewis refused, the woman followed him home and called the police.

 

[MC Prussian]

12 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I'm assuming you meant "violence" rather than "existence" here, unless you're referring to the existence of organisations rather than people themselves?

Extremists on both sides tend to adhere to violence, so in order to stop it you'd have to dissolve the organizations or school of thinking in their respective entirety.

 

Education can go a long way, these people just act like sheep never questioning their own motives, something I'll never understand. I see similarities in the way the masses on both sides in the US are led by University-educated people, especially (but not solely) on the left of the spectrum.

Edited 11 October 2018 by MC Prussian

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, MC Prussian said:

It's in the article, I'll gladly post the quote again:

 

Apologies for my lack of clarity.

 

I meant: what gave her the reason to go near that particular guy and the children in the first place and ask unsolicited about their wellbeing, before any kind of response?

[MC Prussian]

Just now, leicsmac said:

Apologies for my lack of clarity.

 

I meant: what gave her the reason to go near that particular guy and the children in the first place and ask unsolicited about their wellbeing, before any kind of response?

Obviously because it was her assumption - and she was proven right - that he can't be the biological father of these two children.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/white-parents-black-babysitter-reported-stranger-police-call/story?id=58400770

A simple "I am their babysitter - you can come with me and talk to the parents" would've gone a long way.

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, MC Prussian said:

Extremists on both sides tend to adhere to violence, so in order to stop it you'd have to dissolve the organizations or school of thinking in their respective entirety.

 

Education can go a long way, these people just act like sheep never questioning their own motives, something I'll never understand. I see similarities in the way the masses on both sides in the US are led by University-educated people, especially (but not solely) on the left of the spectrum.

Agree that the fringes is where you tend to find the most violence, and yes - the office class of both areas of the fringes are often very smart. Not that there's a really effective left-wing fringe group in the US anyway, not the way we'd think of it; thinking Bernie Sanders (pretty much a typical Nordic social democrat) has some good points puts you squarely in Commieville over there given the way the Overton Window is.

 

4 minutes ago, MC Prussian said:

Obviously because it was her assumption - and she was proven right - that he can't be the biological father of these two children.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/white-parents-black-babysitter-reported-stranger-police-call/story?id=58400770

A simple "I am their babysitter - you can come with me and talk to the parents" would've gone a long way.

Yep, it was her assumption, and also that because these kids couldn't be the kids of the babysitter that they were somehow under duress and so she needed to ask about their welfare. I wonder if she's ever also thought or assumed that when seeing white kids with a white babysitter and subjected them to the same line of questioning?

 

I definitely agree that there were ways to talk this down and stop it from escalating, but really she had zero business getting involved in the first place and while it can't be certain the reason she started asking questions here was because of race it is pretty damn likely IMO.

[Innovindil]

They're both dickheads imo. 

 

The woman is a nosey cow and should leave the dude alone, even if she is trying to check on these kids. 

 

The bloke is a bell because instead of just letting the nosey cow ask the kids if they knew who he was, he wanted to be unnecessarily difficult and escalate the situation. 

 

It's about time common sense made a comeback. Instead of this ridiculous tit for tat bullshit.