Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Guest MattP]

18 minutes ago, toddybad said:

 That bit isn't. But bear in mind what i regard as soft brexit. If you get your way we won't be tariff free with the eu, our most important customer and retailer. 

My intention is to have a tariff free deal with the EU.

[Fox Ulike]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

We have no intention of making it more difficult to trade, our aim is a full free trade deal, we haven't suggested any protectionism at all.

 

We just want to trade freely with as many people as possible and not be handcuffed to a political union to do so.

Well if they can pull that off then we'll all be smiling: the cake-and-eat-it Brexit!

 

But haven't the EU consistently said that it's not going to be possible? (Hence other posters references to unicorns and fantasyland I think).

 

 

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Fox Ulike said:

Well if they can pull that off then we'll all be smiling: the cake-and-eat-it Brexit!

 

But haven't the EU consistently said that it's not going to be possible? (Hence other posters references to unicorns and fantasyland I think).

They've said we can't have full single market access. I've no doubt a tariff free deal would be possible given it appears anything is possible with this lot if you throw enough cash at them. Hopefully we'll soon find out what they want and then it's our job to make non-EU trade worth that much to the treasury it creates that cash and more.

 

We should all be trying to have our cake and eat it, let's see how much cake we get.

[Fox Ulike]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

They've said we can't have full single market access. I've no doubt a tariff free deal would be possible given it appears anything is possible with this lot if you throw enough cash at them. Hopefully we'll soon find out what they want and then it's our job to make non-EU trade worth that much to the treasury it creates that cash and more.

 

We should all be trying to have our cake and eat it, let's see how much cake we get.

And we're going to get better trade deals as an independent nation with a GDP of $2.6tr, then we are as part of the EU with a GDP of $16tr?

 

I think this is where the unicorns come in to it!

 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

And we're going to get better trade deals as an independent nation with a GDP of $2.6tr, then we are as part of the EU with a GDP of $16tr?

 

I think this is where the unicorns come in to it!

Well at least we can do them without it collapsing because a state in Belgium decides it doesn't want it.

 

Hence taking back control. Our future is soon going to be in our own hands and that's a wonderful thing.

[Fox Ulike]

46 minutes ago, Webbo said:

The EU put a 16% tariff on oranges last year to protect Spanish farmers. Now we don't grow oranges in this country, so why have we got to pay more for our oranges?

 

Well, as you say, to protect the Spanish farmers from cheaper South African imports. Britain benefits if the rest of the EU does well too.  Those Spanish farmers stay in business and maybe they buy British farm machinery.

 

Would you be against it if the EU took measures to protect British industries in the same way?

[Webbo]

Just now, Fox Ulike said:

 

Well, as you say, to protect the Spanish farmers from cheaper South African imports. Britain benefits if the rest of the EU does well too.  Those Spanish farmers stay in business and maybe they buy British farm machinery.

 

Would you be against it if the EU took measures to protect British industries in the same way?

Yes I would. Protectionism makes things more expensive for consumers and protects inefficient industries.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Fox Ulike said:

Well, as you say, to protect the Spanish farmers from cheaper South African imports. Britain benefits if the rest of the EU does well too.  Those Spanish farmers stay in business and maybe they buy British farm machinery.

 

Would you be against it if the EU took measures to protect British industries in the same way?

That reminds me whilst we are on South America. 

 

Cheaper Argentinian steaks and Chilean wine, 33% tariff on both at the minute to protect France and Italy. 

 

We can do so much better when we have the option to buy both at a similar price. 

[Fox Ulike]

Just now, MattP said:

Well at least we can do them without it collapsing because a state in Belgium decides it doesn't want it.

 

Hence taking back control. Our future is soon going to be in our own hands and that's a wonderful thing.

You can't really answer economic questions with slogans and rhetoric. You might as well have answered "Because of the Unicorns" as much as "We're taking back control".

 

So i'll answer my own question: We're not  going to get better trade deals as an independent nation with a GDP of $2.6tr, then we are as part of the EU with a GDP of $16tr.

 

Let me ask you another: If we don't manage to get the free trade deals that you think are possible, would you then be anti-Brexit?

[Webbo]

Just now, Fox Ulike said:

You can't really answer economic questions with slogans and rhetoric. You might as well have answered "Because of the Unicorns" as much as "We're taking back control".

 

So i'll answer my own question: We're not  going to get better trade deals as an independent nation with a GDP of $2.6tr, then we are as part of the EU with a GDP of $16tr.

 

Let me ask you another: If we don't manage to get the free trade deals that you think are possible, would you then be anti-Brexit?

Why won't we get better a better deal? When you've got the vested interests of 28 different countries wanting their own concessions it's harder than just a deal between 2.

[Fox Ulike]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

That reminds me whilst we are on South America. 

 

Cheaper Argentinian steaks and Chilean wine, 33% tariff on both at the minute to protect France and Italy. 

 

We can do so much better when we have the option to buy both at a similar price. 

 

8 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Yes I would. Protectionism makes things more expensive for consumers and protects inefficient industries.

 OK fair points... but what about exports? Are Argentina and Chile going to step in and purchase British products if they become too expensive to ship to the EU?

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, Fox Ulike said:

 

 OK fair points... but what about exports? Are Argentina and Chile going to step in and purchase British products if they become too expensive to ship to the EU?

We don't sell bargain basement products anyway. It's services or prestige goods usually.

[foxinexile]

Interesting speech from May. One of the things I was glad to see was the dropping of the gung-ho language she's used previously. I imagine since the election, she's realised that Brexit isn't the main priority for the general UK population and it was good to see her lose the hard rhetoric and be a little more (dare I say it??) statesmanlike. 

 

I'm not sure how I'd feel if I'd voted Leave though. Brexit means Brexit etc. etc. etc. The idea of a transitional period is a sensible one, but something that's only recently been raised once it was clear (and obvious from the start) that we could not entangle everything and also agree a new trade deal within two years; impossible and impractical. At the time of the referendum, or the triggering of A50, I don't recall any speeches made about needing this transition period?

 

I did think her language was a little vague though. A period of "around" two years, but no definite end date. And with this leading up to the next election, I do wonder if this transition phase will perhaps be the model which our future relationship is based on? As a Remain voter, that would not sit well with me (sorry, only full membership of the EU will ever do!) but as a Leave voter, I'd be feeling pretty concerned.  

Edited 22 September 2017 by foxinexile

[Fox Ulike]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

Why won't we get better a better deal? When you've got the vested interests of 28 different countries wanting their own concessions it's harder than just a deal between 2.

All those deals have already been negotiated and are in place.

 

We'll be reinventing the wheel, but with only around 1/8th of the clout of the EU. 

 

As I said before, we already trade with the World. I think it's a bit of a fantasy to imagine that this is going to suddenly be transformed and plug the gap left by any trade shortfall with France/Germany etc.

 

[Guest MattP]

7 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

You can't really answer economic questions with slogans and rhetoric. You might as well have answered "Because of the Unicorns" as much as "We're taking back control".

 

So i'll answer my own question: We're not  going to get better trade deals as an independent nation with a GDP of $2.6tr, then we are as part of the EU with a GDP of $16tr.

 

Let me ask you another: If we don't manage to get the free trade deals that you think are possible, would you then be anti-Brexit?

But the EU struggles to put trade deals together, it's pointless being worth 16trillion if a Belgian politician decides to just say no for all of us which has happened. 

 

No I won't be anti-Brexit, I believe in British independence - if we fail to secure trade deals I'll vote to change our government. 

[Fox Ulike]

29 minutes ago, MattP said:

But the EU struggles to put trade deals together, it's pointless being worth 16trillion if a Belgian politician decides to just say no for all of us which has happened. 

 

No I won't be anti-Brexit, I believe in British independence - if we fail to secure trade deals I'll vote to change our government. 

The Wallonians only delayed CETA by a matter of months. It's not a good argument.

 

And the point is it's done now (almost). Free trade with Canada. Woo-hoo! ... Oh wait....not for Britain once we leave the EU though. Surely, SURELY you have to regard that as madness?

 

I've no problem with people wanting British independence - although I think you'll be disappointed that it really makes very little difference to people's lives. I wish though that people could be more open about the Economic issues that we are going to face. If you feel that these are worth the pain of British independence, fine. I respect that.  But let's not pretend that the economic issues that Brexit will probably throw up won't be significant and damaging. A lot of people will be left with the nice feeling of British independence, and jobless and penniless. It's what we voted for.

 

Anyhoo, gotta go. Nice debating with yourself and Webbo. It's good to get an informed picture of the Leave case - rather than the nonsense that the Daily Mail and Sun spew out!

Edited 22 September 2017 by Fox Ulike

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Fox Ulike said:

The Wallonians only delayed CETA by a matter of months. It's not a good argument.

 

And the point is it's done now (almost). Free trade with Canada. Woo-hoo! ... Oh wait....not for Britain once we leave the EU though. Surely, SURELY you have to regard that as madness?

 

I've no problem with people wanting British independence - although I think you'll be disappointed that it really makes very little difference to people's lives. I wish though that people could be more open about the Economic issues that we are going to face. If you feel that these are worth the pain of British independence, fine. I respect that.  But let's not pretend that the economic issues that Brexit will probably throw up will be significant and damaging. A lot of people will be left with the nice feeling of British independence, and jobless and penniless. It's what we voted for.

 

Anyhoo, gotta go. Nice debating with yourself and Webbo. It's good to get an informed picture of the Leave case - rather than the nonsense that the Daily Mail and Sun spew out!

You as well, do pop in thread more often. 

[Webbo]

Just now, Fox Ulike said:

The Wallonians only delayed CETA by a matter of months. It's not a good argument.

 

And the point is it's done now (almost). Free trade with Canada. Woo-hoo! ... Oh wait....not for Britain once we leave the EU though. Surely, SURELY you have to regard that as madness?

 

I've no problem with people wanting British independence - although I think you'll be disappointed that it really makes very little difference to people's lives. I wish though that people could be more open about the Economic issues that we are going to face. If you feel that these are worth the pain of British independence, fine. I respect that.  But let's not pretend that the economic issues that Brexit will probably throw up will be significant and damaging. A lot of people will be left with the nice feeling of British independence, and jobless and penniless. It's what we voted for.

 

Anyhoo, gotta go. Nice debating with yourself and Webbo. It's good to get an informed picture of the Leave case - rather than the nonsense that the Daily Mail and Sun spew out!

Canada said this week that they were going to extend the trade deal to Britain as  soon as we leave and we can build on it over time. We're the fifth biggest economy in the world with huge consumer spending. Why wouldn't any country want to do a trade deal with us?

[lifted*fox]

https://m.moodys.com/Research.html?docid=PR_372649

 

Downgraded from Aa1 to Aa2. 

 

Things are looking up eh guys? 

 

 

Still, what do these finance guys know? If MattP reckons things are on the up then we should probably just go with that. 

Edited 23 September 2017 by lifted*fox

[Kopfkino]

Ahh yes Moody's - let us remember the ratings agencies and the securities they gave top ratings to which ended up not being worth the paper they were written on and then the resulting financial crash.

 

Funnily enough, sterling has hit it's lowest net short position for 2 years so the markets obviously don't seem to mind.

 

The decision seems to be on the back of the fact they were hoping for a Norwegian-style agreement and fair enough that hasn't materialised so they've gone down a notch. But let us also note the heavy reference to the government yielding to pressure to loosen the purse strings. I dare say many who will be crowing at this bit of news will also be the folk that voted for economic illiteracy/further credit downgrades just over 3 months ago.

[Guest MattP]

5 hours ago, lifted*fox said:

https://m.moodys.com/Research.html?docid=PR_372649

 

Downgraded from Aa1 to Aa2. 

 

Things are looking up eh guys? 

 

 

Still, what do these finance guys know? If MattP reckons things are on the up then we should probably just go with that. 

Yeah the finance guys get everything right, outstanding record in the last decade

[Realist Guy In The Room]

Doesnt matter if they're right or wrong to downgrade.  Fact is they have.  Now we can pretend that means nothing but that combined with May's speech yesterday truly has me worried that a massive U-turn (an even bigger one!) is coming.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, KingGTF said:

Ahh yes Moody's - let us remember the ratings agencies and the securities they gave top ratings to which ended up not being worth the paper they were written on and then the resulting financial crash.

 

Funnily enough, sterling has hit it's lowest net short position for 2 years so the markets obviously don't seem to mind.

 

The decision seems to be on the back of the fact they were hoping for a Norwegian-style agreement and fair enough that hasn't materialised so they've gone down a notch. But let us also note the heavy reference to the government yielding to pressure to loosen the purse strings. I dare say many who will be crowing at this bit of news will also be the folk that voted for economic illiteracy/further credit downgrades just over 3 months ago.

The only thing I'm going to point out here is that neoliberal economics is 35 years old. Before 35 years ago it didn't exist to be the economically literate staging post you pretend it is. You'll know that it is economically illiterate to make cuts atca time of financial crisis as osborne did. You'll also know that withdrawing funding from an economy reduces growth. Finally you'll understand that a party that likens monetary policy to household income and expenditure is a party that's lying to it's people. 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, toddybad said:

The only thing I'm going to point out here is that neoliberal economics is 35 years old. Before 35 years ago it didn't exist to be the economically literate staging post you pretend it is. You'll know that it is economically illiterate to make cuts atca time of financial crisis as osborne did. You'll also know that withdrawing funding from an economy reduces growth. Finally you'll understand that a party that likens monetary policy to household income and expenditure is a party that's lying to it's people. 

Have you seen our current budget deficit now compared to 2010? We've actually reduced it as a % of GDP more than any other country in the G8 who have all tried various ways.

 

I get you don't like it but the argument that it "didn't work" is falling down the toilet and we didn't have to go anywhere near as far as Ireland or Spain did in how fast they cut and how much they reduced corporation tax by.

 

It's possible by 2021 now we'll even be running a budget surplus providing Hammond doesn't turn into Father Christmas. 

[Guest MattP]

We "only" borrowed 5.7million last month.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9a9a138e-9ea6-11e7-9a86-4d5a475ba4c5