Alf Bentley Posted 2 October 2018 Share Posted 2 October 2018 32 minutes ago, Strokes said: If Labour were to vote down a last ditch deal, with the result being no deal. They would be in essence be saying, no deal is better than a bad deal Depends what alternatives there are, IF any deal is presented to Parliament (EU sounding pretty hostile today). Would the vote on the deal be a confidence vote? Probably not, but if it was then that would presumably trigger either an election or a change of PM. Would an amendment to the motion on the proposed deal be presented, calling for a second referendum? Or calling for the govt to go back and renegotiate? Then, even if it was straight Deal or No Deal () and Parliament voted the deal down, Parliament would still have the option, days or weeks later, to vote down the govt or vote for another referendum.....though it would only happen if a significant number of Tory or DUP MPs backed that.... Busy time for party whips calculating vote numbers in different camps over the coming weeks, and working out what they might or might not be able to get through parliament. Clear as mud still! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
breadandcheese Posted 2 October 2018 Share Posted 2 October 2018 Presumably, voting down a deal is dependent on whether article 50 can be extended, which in itself is dependent on the EU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 2 October 2018 Share Posted 2 October 2018 1 minute ago, breadandcheese said: Presumably, voting down a deal is dependent on whether article 50 can be extended, which in itself is dependent on the EU? My impression is that there's very little chance of the EU agreeing to extend Article 50 / negotiations without a divorce deal. Verhofstadt was very hostile to the idea this morning - and it would need unanimous support from all 27 other EU members and every EU institution, I think. The UK probably still has an option to rescind its Article 50 request to leave - but that would involve cancelling Brexit altogether, which looks highly unlikely unless an election or referendum takes us in that direction first. More realistically: - There'll be some sort of deal with the EU (final divorce deal & outline agreement on future EU-UK trade), approved by Parliament, that includes a transition period until December 2020. We leave the EU in March but effectively stay as non-voting members, enjoying benefits, making payments and negotiating a free trade deal until Dec. 2020, when we leave definitively, with or without a trade deal. - There'll be no EU/UK deal in Oct/Nov or any deal is voted down by Parliament. Then, there'll probably be some sort of skeleton agreement by March covering basic stuff like security, EU/UK citizens & aviation, plus bitter legal disputes over the divorce deal and no EU-UK free trade deal on the horizon. I presume the UK Parliament will take the Deal or No Deal decision on the assumption that Article 50 would NOT be extended. It would probably take too long for all the EU countries/institutions to decide, even if an extension was requested. If May comes back with a deal and it gets voted down, Parliament will effectively be voting for an unprecedented volume of shit to hit the fan, I think - full-scale political/economic/social crisis with all sorts of repercussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strokes Posted 2 October 2018 Share Posted 2 October 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said: Depends what alternatives there are, IF any deal is presented to Parliament (EU sounding pretty hostile today). Would the vote on the deal be a confidence vote? Probably not, but if it was then that would presumably trigger either an election or a change of PM. Would an amendment to the motion on the proposed deal be presented, calling for a second referendum? Or calling for the govt to go back and renegotiate? Then, even if it was straight Deal or No Deal () and Parliament voted the deal down, Parliament would still have the option, days or weeks later, to vote down the govt or vote for another referendum.....though it would only happen if a significant number of Tory or DUP MPs backed that.... Busy time for party whips calculating vote numbers in different camps over the coming weeks, and working out what they might or might not be able to get through parliament. Clear as mud still! Maybe I’m being a bit naive Alf, but should we have another referendum and the result was reversed. Can we alone decide to retract article 50 or do we need approval from the EU27? Because that could be a huge waste of time otherwise. Edited 2 October 2018 by Strokes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 Shadow Cabinet Minister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 8 minutes ago, MattP said: Shadow Cabinet Minister. Not quite as catchy as the original...... "Maggie, Maggie, Maggie! Out! Out! Out!" Could be reissued as "Tory-Tory-Tories! Out! Out! Out!" perhaps? Feel free to sing along, Matt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnderbyFox Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 Great timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 3 minutes ago, EnderbyFox said: Great timing The reaction to her speech could be savage today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strokes Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 20 minutes ago, MattP said: The reaction to her speech could be savage today. I might not agree with May and would welcome a change but I’m not in favour of a change of direction at this hour. why didn’t they make their move after Chequers in June when she was vulnerable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 On 27/09/2018 at 10:14, Strokes said: They are waiting to support anything that will bring down the government. That is their only goal. Likely true. But they have no hope of winning a general election if they do. British Politics looks so bad from over here at the moment. Anyway all I read here is about Labour and Conservatives (with a bit of BNP (or whatever their name is now) thrown in) . Can someone tell me what the Lib Dems are upto? How can they be so out of the picture when the two big parties are stinking the joint up so much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guvnor Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 10 minutes ago, FIF said: Likely true. But they have no hope of winning a general election if they do. British Politics looks so bad from over here at the moment. Anyway all I read here is about Labour and Conservatives (with a bit of BNP (or whatever their name is now) thrown in) . Can someone tell me what the Lib Dems are upto? How can they be so out of the picture when the two big parties are stinking the joint up so much? Vince Cable...…………. I rest my case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strokes Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 11 minutes ago, FIF said: Likely true. But they have no hope of winning a general election if they do. British Politics looks so bad from over here at the moment. Anyway all I read here is about Labour and Conservatives (with a bit of BNP (or whatever their name is now) thrown in) . Can someone tell me what the Lib Dems are upto? How can they be so out of the picture when the two big parties are stinking the joint up so much? They are lead by a corpse, is it any wonder they seem dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 19 minutes ago, Strokes said: I might not agree with May and would welcome a change but I’m not in favour of a change of direction at this hour. why didn’t they make their move after Chequers in June when she was vulnerable? My guess is because they didn't have the votes to depose May then, so were keeping their powder dry for a more promising moment. I think party rules only allow 1 vote of confidence in the leader per year, so if they tried and failed they'd have to wait another year to try again. They had the 48 votes needed to trigger a confidence vote in June, as they have now - but did/do they have the support of 160 Tory MPs to win such a vote? Highly unlikely. Without losing such a vote, May has no obligation to go (though she might if the vote was close) so there'd be no leadership contest, as I understand it. I presume there's much more chance of a leadership challenge once the Brexit divorce negotiations are complete and she comes back with a deal (or no deal) - unless she somehow does a very good deal. Where that would leave Brexit and politics, though, I haven't a clue. Time would be very tight for any new leader to try to negotiate a different deal, so we could be heading for a choice between No Deal, election and referendum.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strokes Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: My guess is because they didn't have the votes to depose May then, so were keeping their powder dry for a more promising moment. I think party rules only allow 1 vote of confidence in the leader per year, so if they tried and failed they'd have to wait another year to try again. They had the 48 votes needed to trigger a confidence vote in June, as they have now - but did/do they have the support of 160 Tory MPs to win such a vote? Highly unlikely. Without losing such a vote, May has no obligation to go (though she might if the vote was close) so there'd be no leadership contest, as I understand it. I presume there's much more chance of a leadership challenge once the Brexit divorce negotiations are complete and she comes back with a deal (or no deal) - unless she somehow does a very good deal. Where that would leave Brexit and politics, though, I haven't a clue. Time would be very tight for any new leader to try to negotiate a different deal, so we could be heading for a choice between No Deal, election and referendum.... My beef is with the people who wouldn’t vote her down then but will now. What’s changed that they would support her in June but not now? I would have expected her to stand down once the deal was done anyway, I might be wrong but I think her health has taken a bit of a battering since she became Prime Minister. Edited 3 October 2018 by Strokes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 7 minutes ago, The Guvnor said: Vince Cable...…………. I rest my case. Speaking as a leftish Remainer, he's been a massive disappointment. With the Tories largely committed to Brexit (if divided about what sort) and Labour's deliberate ambiguity, he had a massive opportunity given that 48% were opposed - not to mention widespread dissatisfaction over other issues. He's singularly failed to seize that opportunity. Granted, the Lib Dems always get much less media coverage than the big 2 parties outside election time. Even so, there are ways of raising your profile and gaining support for your policies - through eye-catching public campaigns etc. He's failed big time on that front. Shame, as he's one of the more intelligent, thoughtful, articulate politicians out there - and one of very few who anticipated the risks of the 2008 financial crisis. Maybe he's just a natural administrator, but not leader - someone who could do a good job with a brief but is no good at appealing to the public or inspiring others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sol thewall Bamba Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 Coming out to Dancing Queen actually rate that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 1 hour ago, FIF said: Likely true. But they have no hope of winning a general election if they do. British Politics looks so bad from over here at the moment. Anyway all I read here is about Labour and Conservatives (with a bit of BNP (or whatever their name is now) thrown in) . Can someone tell me what the Lib Dems are upto? How can they be so out of the picture when the two big parties are stinking the joint up so much? The Liberal Democrats have become a joke, quite rightly as well. The behaviour of the party after the referendum was absolutely disgraceful, prepared to just railroad democracy for an attempt at some cheap short-term support, at least most of the "peoples vote" crowd had the sense to at least wait until the inevitable government cock up to try and reverse the decision on he basis on that it wasn't what was promised, they just went ahead with it from the off. Coupled with that they also appointed a guy who wasn't just as terribly annoying as the average Guardian reading sandal wearing member but he also decided that despite not liking consenting men putting their penis into other consenting men (something even most Tories these days can't be arsed to argue against) he was the man to lead the Liberal Democrats, so you ended up with a political party named the Liberal Democrats that were led by someone totally illiberal with a party message that was completely undemocratic. After the obvious failure of that they then somehow managed to replace him with a leader that was even worse, even by their standards that was astonishing, appointing a bumbling old corpse who should be used as treatment for insomniacs, a man whose speeches have probably been booed at funerals. They do have hope though, keep a look out for a girl called Layla Moran, could be destined for big things, already being talked about as future leader, only elected last year and comes across very well. Being half-Palestinian she'll probably be able to take 50% of Labour's membership in one swoop when Mossad finally kill off Jezza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Innovindil Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 Surprisingly a very good speech from May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 Only seen excerpts on the lunchtime news, but May seems to have really upped her game today: much more fluent and self-confident than usual, a bit of humour about last year's conference disasters, some anti-Corbyn rhetoric to encourage unity, an air of optimism instead of the usual grimness, even a few new policy ideas. Can't see it doing her much good now unless she somehow extracts a great deal from the EU - and even then I cannot imagine the Tory party allowing her to lead them into another election after the 2017 debacle. She'd be in a much better position now, though, if she had performed like that in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 48 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said: Coming out to Dancing Queen actually rate that. Came across well, making her seem less robotic (even if her dancing still was) and more humorous. She should do an Abba Greatest Hits show next year, though... - At Waterloo, Macron did surrender - The winner takes it all, the loser standing small - When you're near me, darling, can't you hear the SOS? - Honey, I'm still free, take a chance on me - Mama mia, here we go again - Chiquitita, tell me what's wrong etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 50 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: Only seen excerpts on the lunchtime news, but May seems to have really upped her game today: much more fluent and self-confident than usual, a bit of humour about last year's conference disasters, some anti-Corbyn rhetoric to encourage unity, an air of optimism instead of the usual grimness, even a few new policy ideas. Can't see it doing her much good now unless she somehow extracts a great deal from the EU - and even then I cannot imagine the Tory party allowing her to lead them into another election after the 2017 debacle. She'd be in a much better position now, though, if she had performed like that in the past. It was, but she has given goos speech before and then rolled back on them (Lancaster and Mansion House) so I won't start cheering her yet. I don't think it matters what deal she comes back with though if the Labour party intention is to vote it down whatever, it means she'll need a united DUP, ERG and Tory Remainers to get it through the house and that's impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban.spaceman Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 47 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: Came across well, making her seem less robotic (even if her dancing still was) and more humorous. She should do an Abba Greatest Hits show next year, though... - At Waterloo, Macron did surrender - The winner takes it all, the loser standing small - When you're near me, darling, can't you hear the SOS? - Honey, I'm still free, take a chance on me - Mama mia, here we go again - Chiquitita, tell me what's wrong etc. "Knowing Me Knowing EU, it's the best we can do" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 4 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said: "Knowing Me Knowing EU, it's the best we can do" I'm not an Abba fan, much prefer Snoop Moggy Mogg or FaRage against the Machine. Yep, coat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 3 minutes ago, MattP said: I don't think it matters what deal she comes back with though if the Labour party intention is to vote it down whatever, it means she'll need a united DUP, ERG and Tory Remainers to get it through the house and that's impossible. I tend to agree with that assessment. The doubt that I have is whether all those groups (Labour Moderates, DUP, ERG, Tory Remainers) will hold firm to their positions and vote a deal down....if May comes back with a half-decent deal. If the DUP can be persuaded to accept a few extra checks on GB->NI food/farm trade, it sounds as if a solution to the Irish border issue can be agreed. The other key divorce issues (payment & EU/UK citizens) shouldn't be insuperable obstacles - and the big issue of future EU-UK trade can be fudged for negotiation over a transition period lasting until Dec. 2020. If May comes back with a deal like that, will those different groups hold firm, even if it means political/economic chaos and uncertainty that could result in No Deal, in an election (and hypothetically a Corbyn Govt) or in a referendum (and hypothetically the complete loss of Brexit)? Mind you, so far Arlene Foster seems to be ruling out ANY extra checks on GB/NI trade, so even a deal like that might be unachievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 3 October 2018 Share Posted 3 October 2018 10 minutes ago, MattP said: I'm not an Abba fan, much prefer Snoop Moggy Mogg or FaRage against the Machine. Yep, coat. I wonder if a new leader will take the stage to Bobby "Boris" Pickett & the Crypt-Kickers next year? I'll join the cloakroom queue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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