FT General Election Poll 2019

[purpleronnie]

27 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

 

"It's in your nature to destroy yourselves" - Cyberdyne Systems Model 101 

People love Boris and dislike Corbyn, personality politics is the order of the day.  I've seen so many voters say they dislike Corbyn but when pressed on 'why' they usually have no answer its all a little odd.  I remember reading a focus group findings when it listed all the labour policies but didn't tell the audience which party it was from, it was well really received and when they were asked which party the policies we're from they said 'conservatives' when they were told it was Corbyn's labour party they suddenly changed their minds.

 

We all know that Corbyn is the most smeared politician and it certainly seems to be working. 

 

If Labour can have such a successful manifesto and the Tories can have such a disastrous one and yet Labour still can't win then they never will as long as Corbyn is the leader......surely after Labours defeat in next months election he will finally step down.

[Alf Bentley]

8 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

 

Appeasing Unionist parties for a potential alliance maybe?

 

Good point. Though the Brexit Party didn't stand candidates in N. Ireland for the Euro elections either - and the DUP were still allied to the Tories then, and they stood against the Tories....

 

I think the sad truth that Ulster Unionists need to face is that most Brexiteers, indeed many on the Right generally, would be quite happy to lose N. Ireland - and Scotland & Wales, for that matter - so long as they get Brexit for England.

[Guest MattP]

40 minutes ago, purpleronnie said:

We all know that Corbyn is the most smeared politician and it certainly seems to be working. 

 

If Labour can have such a successful manifesto and the Tories can have such a disastrous one and yet Labour still can't win then they never will as long as Corbyn is the leader......surely after Labours defeat in next months election he will finally step down.

He isn't smeared at all - if he was he would take legal action against those smears like everyone else does, he doesn't though as he would lose.

 

That's why whenever a big story like that breaks, be it the wreath laying or the train stuff, they tweet out to the followers legal action is coming, get it out to all the members etc - then just quietly drop it a bit later and no one notices. 

 

Don't bank on him stepping down either, one of the journalists asked him at the launch of that would happen if he lost - the crowd shouted "noooooooooo" and he said he wasn't about him but the party.

 

Very possible even if they deny the Tories a majority he refuses to go and blames it on the Lib Dems, leading to another election or a Tory/Labour minority.

[David Guiza]

On the subject of famous supporters, here's a big loss for Corbyn. Losing the support of one of the most unpopular men in English football, and a man who's business employed a woman who was so scared about losing her zero hour contract job that she gave birth in a warehouse toilet, cut the umbilical cor with a box cutter and returned to work. 

[Guest MattP]

39 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Good point. Though the Brexit Party didn't stand candidates in N. Ireland for the Euro elections either - and the DUP were still allied to the Tories then, and they stood against the Tories....

 

I think the sad truth that Ulster Unionists need to face is that most Brexiteers, indeed many on the Right generally, would be quite happy to lose N. Ireland - and Scotland & Wales, for that matter - so long as they get Brexit for England.

Not heard or seen the evidence many Brexiteers would be prepared to lose Wales? Certainly agree on the other two though. 

 

The next election is a nightmare for Unionists in Scotland and Ireland - The Tories pushing a deal that upsets them, Labour offering up a second independence referendum.

 

Although aren't you voting Green anyway? Aren't they favour of Welsh and Scottish independence?

[HappyHamza]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

Which governments deliberately kill the innocent "all the time"?

Not the government but the US police seem to do this

[HappyHamza]

Do you not have a job to do today Matt?

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Much like 'back of the queue' Obama

Yeah, either both are ok or neither.

 

Tbh being at the "back of the queue" when it comes to trade with the administration in charge right now might not be a bad thing given their policy decisions.

 

(That's depending on if it actually *is* the same administration and not one under President Warren/A N Other as of next November.)

[Guest MattP]

17 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

Do you not have a job to do today Matt?

Nope, back in on Monday.

 

Yourself?

[Guest MattP]

9 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Yeah, either both are ok or neither.

 

Tbh being at the "back of the queue" when it comes to trade with the administration in charge right now might not be a bad thing given their policy decisions.

 

(That's depending on if it actually *is* the same administration and not one under President Warren/A N Other as of next November.)

Being at the back of the queue for a trade deal isn't good with anybody unless your intention is to punish the poorest - tariffs hurt those people the most.

 

Don't let your hatred of Trump override common sense.

[Alf Bentley]

21 minutes ago, MattP said:

Not heard or seen the evidence many Brexiteers would be prepared to lose Wales? Certainly agree on the other two though. 

 

The next election is a nightmare for Unionists in Scotland and Ireland - The Tories pushing a deal that upsets them, Labour offering up a second independence referendum.

 

Although aren't you voting Green anyway? Aren't they favour of Welsh and Scottish independence?

 

Yes, my comment about Brexiteers happily losing Wales was speculative - and Wales voted narrowly for Leave (though not the Welsh-speaking parts).

Any prospect of Wales going independent is a lot more distant than either Scottish independence or a united Ireland, anyway.

Though if the other 2 left, leaving Wales alone as the small fry with big brother England, I imagine that could boost support for Welsh independence.

 

I'll be surprised if the SNP don't take most seats in Scotland - and if the DUP don't lose at least a couple (possibly more) in N. Ireland.

 

The Scottish Green Party is separate from the England & Wales party - and does support independence, at least partly because of Brexit.

As someone not attracted to nationalism, I regret that. But I wouldn't be voting for the Scottish Greens - and it's their business, really.

I couldn't find any reference to the Green Party of England & Wales - or the semi-autonomous Welsh Green Party - supporting Welsh or Scottish independence?

[leicsmac]

17 minutes ago, MattP said:

Being at the back of the queue for a trade deal isn't good with anybody unless your intention is to punish the poorest - tariffs hurt those people the most.

 

Don't let your hatred of Trump override common sense.

I'm of the opinion that any trade agreement the Trump administration would reach with the UK would be as damaging to the poor as tariffs in the long term anyway tbh - such an agreement would be by definition lopsided massively in their favour.

 

His whole foreign policy is based on the idea of "no friends, only enemies or subordinates" - the UK can only merely decide which of those it wishes to be.

 

That of course, is going nothing into entering trade agreements with countries with dodgy human rights records in the first place - of course, the UK has previous with China and the Saudis in that regard, to name but two.

[Guest MattP]

17 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Yes, my comment about Brexiteers happily losing Wales was speculative - and Wales voted narrowly for Leave (though not the Welsh-speaking parts).

Any prospect of Wales going independent is a lot more distant than either Scottish independence or a united Ireland, anyway.

Though if the other 2 left, leaving Wales alone as the small fry with big brother England, I imagine that could boost support for Welsh independence.

 

I'll be surprised if the SNP don't take most seats in Scotland - and if the DUP don't lose at least a couple (possibly more) in N. Ireland.

 

The Scottish Green Party is separate from the England & Wales party - and does support independence, at least partly because of Brexit.

As someone not attracted to nationalism, I regret that. But I wouldn't be voting for the Scottish Greens - and it's their business, really.

I couldn't find any reference to the Green Party of England & Wales - or the semi-autonomous Welsh Green Party - supporting Welsh or Scottish independence?

On current polling I think te SNP are set to make serious gains unless there can be some sort of Unionist bloc vote again, I know Ian Blackford looks like he's going to be leaving as the Tories and Labour seem to be happy to let the Lib Dems overturn his majority, although that's only from a Twitter source.

The Scottish Greens were pro-independence long before Brexit and were vocal proponents of it even during the first referendum when conventional wisdom said staying in the UK was the only way to remain a member of the European Union.

 

I can't actually find a link or clarification that the English and Welsh Greens support this but I presume they surely do though as it wouldn't make sense for them not too?

[David Guiza]

Not overly keen with Swinson's regular attacks on Labour, whilst offering nothing against Boris and the Tories. I understand that she's trying to get Labour voting remainers on side, but flat out ignoring the party in power and not going for the blue remainers, of which there are plenty, seems odd.

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

On current polling I think te SNP are set to make serious gains unless there can be some sort of Unionist bloc vote again, I know Ian Blackford looks like he's going to be leaving as the Tories and Labour seem to be happy to let the Lib Dems overturn his majority, although that's only from a Twitter source.

The Scottish Greens were pro-independence long before Brexit and were vocal proponents of it even during the first referendum when conventional wisdom said staying in the UK was the only way to remain a member of the European Union.

 

I can't actually find a link or clarification that the English and Welsh Greens support this but I presume they surely do though as it wouldn't make sense for them not too?

 

"Conventional wisdom" wasn't very wise, with hindsight....  

 

I presume the English & Welsh Greens respect the right of the Scottish Greens to self-determination.....as I do. 

I can certainly understand that stance now, if Scotland is dragged out of the EU against its will. If they were advocating it before, I'd have disagreed with them.....but that's their business as I'm not in Scotland.

 

In general, I don't see the sense in creating new small nations at a time when the economy, capital and communications are becoming ever more global. My instinctive antipathy to Brexit is for similar reasons.

I do see the sense in democratic autonomy within larger units: Scottish devolution within the UK, national & regional democracy within the EU, while the bigger democratic units exert more power/influence on the global playing field.

 

Anyway, as I said before, if I vote Green (probable) it'll just be doing my trivial little bit to help push the environment up the agenda of the big parties - a luxury that I have as my vote won't matter otherwise, living in what is now one of the safest seats in the country. 

[ousefox]

 

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

Not overly keen with Swinson's regular attacks on Labour, whilst offering nothing against Boris and the Tories. I understand that she's trying to get Labour voting remainers on side, but flat out ignoring the party in power and not going for the blue remainers, of which there are plenty, seems odd.

 

Blue Remainers are likely to be hostile to Corbyn & suspicious that the Lib Dems might jump into bed with Labour - and almost all potential Lib Dem gains are Tory seats, unless they achieve a truly massive swing.

 

I suppose such hostility also serves the purpose of reassuring Tory Remainers that they don't risk helping Corbyn if they defect to the LDs.

[Guest MattP]

13 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

Not overly keen with Swinson's regular attacks on Labour, whilst offering nothing against Boris and the Tories. I understand that she's trying to get Labour voting remainers on side, but flat out ignoring the party in power and not going for the blue remainers, of which there are plenty, seems odd.

Not just this - but in the South West there are quite a few Tory/Lib marginals. 

 

Many of the Liberal voters down there do go between the two and are as hostile to Labour as they are to the Conservatives, if they want to grab those seats anything that looks like propping up Labour or Corbyn is a total no-go.

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, David Guiza said:

Not overly keen with Swinson's regular attacks on Labour, whilst offering nothing against Boris and the Tories. I understand that she's trying to get Labour voting remainers on side, but flat out ignoring the party in power and not going for the blue remainers, of which there are plenty, seems odd.

It's borderline insane. The only way back to Remain or for the Lib Dems to have any kind of kingmaking power after this election is to prevent a Tory majority. Her current strategy isn't going to get the people she needs to vote tactically to do so.

[leicsmac]

23 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

"Conventional wisdom" wasn't very wise, with hindsight....  

 

I presume the English & Welsh Greens respect the right of the Scottish Greens to self-determination.....as I do. 

I can certainly understand that stance now, if Scotland is dragged out of the EU against its will. If they were advocating it before, I'd have disagreed with them.....but that's their business as I'm not in Scotland.

 

In general, I don't see the sense in creating new small nations at a time when the economy, capital and communications are becoming ever more global. My instinctive antipathy to Brexit is for similar reasons.

I do see the sense in democratic autonomy within larger units: Scottish devolution within the UK, national & regional democracy within the EU, while the bigger democratic units exert more power/influence on the global playing field.

 

Anyway, as I said before, if I vote Green (probable) it'll just be doing my trivial little bit to help push the environment up the agenda of the big parties - a luxury that I have as my vote won't matter otherwise, living in what is now one of the safest seats in the country. 

If only more people thought like that Alf - not from just UK policy, but encouraging the UK to talk to the rest of the world to follow suit, too.

[WigstonWanderer]

3 hours ago, Beechey said:

Ooooh Jeremy Corbyn!

Does anyone else see a little leprechaun wearing a pointed yellow hat at the top of Scotland?

[David Guiza]

15 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Blue Remainers are likely to be hostile to Corbyn & suspicious that the Lib Dems might jump into bed with Labour - and almost all potential Lib Dem gains are Tory seats, unless they achieve a truly massive swing.

 

I suppose such hostility also serves the purpose of reassuring Tory Remainers that they don't risk helping Corbyn if they defect to the LDs.

 

10 minutes ago, MattP said:

Not just this - but in the South West there are quite a few Tory/Lib marginals. 

 

Many of the Liberal voters down there do go between the two and are as hostile to Labour as they are to the Conservatives, if they want to grab those seats anything that looks like propping up Labour or Corbyn is a total no-go.

True, but it seems like an all the eggs in one basket scenario. They've only just started to recover from the mess they made by getting into bed with Cameron, and calling out Labour but not the Tories surely won't do much to convince any Labour/Lib Dem swing voters, of which I imagine there are a fair few?

 

I understand the reasoning for those marginals, but I can't help but think that they're only encouraging more Tory voters, as opposed to gaining Labour. 

10 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

It's borderline insane. The only way back to Remain or for the Lib Dems to have any kind of kingmaking power after this election is to prevent a Tory majority. Her current strategy isn't going to get the people she needs to vote tactically to do so.

Absolutely, they're campaigning on being the only remain party but damaging any chance of making that happen by putting tactical remainers off their party. My biggest fear is that the Lib Dems and Labour, plus a selection of Greens, effectively end up fighting over the last chip whilst Boris and co gallivant off with the 12oz steak. 

[Guest MattP]

25 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

It's borderline insane. The only way back to Remain or for the Lib Dems to have any kind of kingmaking power after this election is to prevent a Tory majority. Her current strategy isn't going to get the people she needs to vote tactically to do so.

I get the feeling Jo Swinson cares as much about remaining as Nigel Farage does about leaving - they might both have their eyes on bigger things if they can destroy the main opposition on their side of the argument.

 

If you are a fanatical Europhile it might be best to leave anyway, then rejoin with all in.

Edited 1 November 2019 by MattP

[LiberalFox]

I don't see how we can stop Scotland leaving the UK, support for the SNP and independence is really high among the youth up there it seems inevitable they'll leave at some point in the next 20 years. Sad times.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

56 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

Not overly keen with Swinson's regular attacks on Labour, whilst offering nothing against Boris and the Tories. I understand that she's trying to get Labour voting remainers on side, but flat out ignoring the party in power and not going for the blue remainers, of which there are plenty, seems odd.

Plenty more remain Labour voters to go for, than Conservative ones.