FT General Election Poll 2019

[Guest MattP]

Just now, LiberalFox said:

I don't see how we can stop Scotland leaving the UK, support for the SNP and independence is really high among the youth up there it seems inevitable they'll leave at some point in the next 20 years. Sad times.

Agree, sad but I'm not going to cry about it.
 

Be interesting to see if they pass a law to make sure they can't leave without a deal when entering into negotiations with us.

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

I get the feeling Jo Swinson cares as much about remaining as Nigel Farage does about leaving - they might both have their eyes on bigger things if they can destroy the main opposition on their side of the argument.

 

If you are a fanatical Europhile it might be best to leave anyway, then rejoin with all in.

Yeah, it's becoming clearer by the day what her actual intentions are and I don't think anyone other than the most ardant Centrist Dad #FBPE types, like those fvcking idiots who donated to an attractive girl in her 20s who basically wanted to go interrailing around Europe under the guise of putting 'Bollocks to Brexit' stickers up at famous landmarks, will be gormless enough to buy into it. Think she needs to temper her expectations a bit...

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

5 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

 

True, but it seems like an all the eggs in one basket scenario. They've only just started to recover from the mess they made by getting into bed with Cameron, and calling out Labour but not the Tories surely won't do much to convince any Labour/Lib Dem swing voters, of which I imagine there are a fair few?

 

I understand the reasoning for those marginals, but I can't help but think that they're only encouraging more Tory voters, as opposed to gaining Labour. 

Absolutely, they're campaigning on being the only remain party but damaging any chance of making that happen by putting tactical remainers off their party. My biggest fear is that the Lib Dems and Labour, plus a selection of Greens, effectively end up fighting over the last chip whilst Boris and co gallivant off with the 12oz steak. 

 

I understand your point. But a situation where the Lib Dems attracted a lot of Tory Remainers but very few Labour tactical voters could work out well.

 

In LD target seats, the Labour vote is mainly very small, so LD success/failure will mainly depend on their ability to attract Tory Remainers.

Meanwhile, in Lab/Con Remain marginals, there's a risk that Remainers switching to the LDs will hand Labour Remain seats to the Tories......so a sharp Lab/LD divide might be no bad thing.

 

Everyone's pointed out the advantage for the Leave side in the Remain vote being more splintered (Lab/LD/Green/SNP etc), though Farage might change that.... 

 

However, a point that hasn't been made enough is that the Remain parties are mainly fishing in different pools, whereas the Tories & Brexit Party are largely fishing in the same pool (Labour Leave seats).

There are very few seats where both Labour & the LDs have a chance of winning, barring an earthquake. But Farage's best targets are also precisely the seats that Johnson needs to hold or win to gain a majority.

A couple of days ago, I was feeling very pessimistic.....now I'm not so sure.....and the Tories effectively HAVE to win a majority as they've alienated almost everyone else.

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

However, a point that hasn't been made enough is that the Remain parties are mainly fishing in different pools, whereas the Tories & Brexit Party are largely fishing in the same pool (Labour Leave seats).

There are very few seats where both Labour & the LDs have a chance of winning, barring an earthquake. But Farage's best targets are also precisely the seats that Johnson needs to hold or win to gain a majority.

A couple of days ago, I was feeling very pessimistic.....now I'm not so sure.....and the Tories effectively HAVE to win a majority as they've alienated almost everyone else.

Tories were 8/11 to win a majority last night, back to 6/5 against today. That's the seriousness of what Farage have done, all whilst his mob are still an even longer price than that just to win one seat.

[David Guiza]

4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

1. I understand your point. But a situation where the Lib Dems attracted a lot of Tory Remainers but very few Labour tactical voters could work out well.

 

In LD target seats, the Labour vote is mainly very small, so LD success/failure will mainly depend on their ability to attract Tory Remainers.

Meanwhile, in Lab/Con Remain marginals, there's a risk that Remainers switching to the LDs will hand Labour Remain seats to the Tories......so a sharp Lab/LD divide might be no bad thing.

 

Everyone's pointed out the advantage for the Leave side in the Remain vote being more splintered (Lab/LD/Green/SNP etc), though Farage might change that.... 

 

2. However, a point that hasn't been made enough is that the Remain parties are mainly fishing in different pools, whereas the Tories & Brexit Party are largely fishing in the same pool (Labour Leave seats).

There are very few seats where both Labour & the LDs have a chance of winning, barring an earthquake. But Farage's best targets are also precisely the seats that Johnson needs to hold or win to gain a majority.

A couple of days ago, I was feeling very pessimistic.....now I'm not so sure.....and the Tories effectively HAVE to win a majority as they've alienated almost everyone else.

1. Yep, that is effectively what i'm hoping for. If the Lib Dems have any sort of success then presumably it will be through one of two ways; attracting non-Tories to vote for them which could end up in significant Tory gains due to split remain/left/centre vote, or the situation you refer to whereby remain Tories, or centrist Tories are put off by the current Government and go for LibDems. I'm very much hoping that it's the latter. 

 

2. Very true. My only gauge in that respect is social media, which of course must be taken with a pinch of salt at best, which very much seems split from a Brexit perspective. You have the hardcore Leavers, basically the opposite of @Voll Blaus description #FBPE types, who have Brexit Party plastered all over their profiles and want no deal, the chunnel to be bricked up and for us to move a few further miles away from mainland Europe, and then you've got your Boris and or Tory supporting Brexiters. Be interesting to see just how that is split.

 

I sincerely hope that both Boris' and Farage's egos prevent Boris from agreeing to NF's proposals and for NF from keeping his face out of the press. 

 

If I were a betting man, I would predict something like a repeat of the 2017 results with a tight Tory win, Labour to lose a few and LibDems to gain a few, which doesn't really suit anyone, particularly the Brexit campaign. 

[Strokes]

5 hours ago, HappyHamza said:

I'll say two things:

1- I have no idea who moose was and I am not he

2- he must have been a highly intelligent fellow for you to be so mistaken though 

Did you pick a Hamza mask because his hair would hide the Antlers?

[bovril]

All this BP vs Con stuff, wasn't that why we had the referendum in the first place? 

[Salisbury Fox]

1 hour ago, LiberalFox said:

I don't see how we can stop Scotland leaving the UK, support for the SNP and independence is really high among the youth up there it seems inevitable they'll leave at some point in the next 20 years. Sad times.

I disagree, looking at the figures there is still major support for the union despite the perception that the SNP have overwhelming support.  I mean there were almost 500k more votes for Labour and the Scottish Conservatives alone than the SNP got. The SNP enjoy the level of representation that they do largely due to FPTP. 
 

2017 election results

Edited 1 November 2019 by Salisbury Fox

[Stadt]

I'd imagine I'm not alone in finding general politics a bit tedious, especially whilst Brexit ambles along but elections and campaigns fascinating. All the polls and predictions can mean f uck all, one soundbite can ruin a campaign, one trivial thing can make one. I don't know if helps or hinders my interest that I haven't got a horse in the race.

 

I don't want the Tories in but I find Labour and Lib Dems unpalatable.

[Guest MattP]

13 minutes ago, bovril said:

All this BP vs Con stuff, wasn't that why we had the referendum in the first place? 

Yeah. And now Boris has cleared out pretty much every Remainer from the party Farage still guns for them.

 

I get the feeling big Nige won't ever vote for a deal unless it commits us to bombing Belgium.

[Alf Bentley]

33 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

 

2. Very true. My only gauge in that respect is social media, which of course must be taken with a pinch of salt at best, which very much seems split from a Brexit perspective. You have the hardcore Leavers, basically the opposite of @Voll Blaus description #FBPE types, who have Brexit Party plastered all over their profiles and want no deal, the chunnel to be bricked up and for us to move a few further miles away from mainland Europe, and then you've got your Boris and or Tory supporting Brexiters. Be interesting to see just how that is split.

 

If I were a betting man, I would predict something like a repeat of the 2017 results with a tight Tory win, Labour to lose a few and LibDems to gain a few, which doesn't really suit anyone, particularly the Brexit campaign. 

 

Your second sub-category of "Boris and/or Tory supporting Brexiters" could also be split. I think there are a fair few who plan to vote Tory because Boris "has charisma", "is a natural leader", "is the sort who gets things done" or "will get Brexit done", but would not be voting Tory otherwise. Would be useful if Boris could somehow disgrace himself during the campaign so as to lose some of those votes......entirely possible but no guarantee it'll sway many votes as he's Teflon-man as regards public disgrace.

 

The identity of your first sub-category of "hardcore Leavers" is crucial. If Farage does well who will he be taking votes from - and if he does badly, who (if anyone) will his votes go to? There might be a strong clue to that in the 2017 election result, when the UKIP vote crashed after they'd done so well in 2015. In Labour Leave seats, about 2/3 of the ex-UKIP vote seemed to go to the Tories & about 1/3 to Labour, though some probably didn't vote at all. Hence, Labour lost a few Leave seats but not as many as expected as there was a bigger UKIP/Labour overlap than had been appreciated. Even so, a 2/3 - 1/3 split suggests that Farage contesting Labour Leave seats would help Labour marginally. If he pulls out of such seats or his vote is very low, then that's likely to help the Tories marginally.

 

I'd expect the Lib Dems to gain a few & the SNP to gain a fair few. A couple of days ago, I was also expecting the Tories to take a lot from Labour - and win a clear majority. Now, I'm not so sure, provided Corbyn doesn't make an arse of himself (entirely possible, but he performed surprisingly well in 2017) & Farage runs a decent number of candidates and picks up at least 5-10% vote. The Tories could easily lose 20-30 seats to the Lib Dems & SNP....and would then need to pick up at least 40 from Labour to get the majority they need.....quite a big ask. 

[LiberalFox]

Honestly, all realistic outcomes feel like shit for the country. Wish I could feel more optimistic. 

[HappyHamza]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

Nope, back in on Monday.

 

Yourself?

Yes, hence only posting during a break. 

I'd like to imagine that you found other things to do with your day  off as well as spending all of your day posting in this thread. 

 

[Heathrow fox]

1 hour ago, Salisbury Fox said:

I disagree, looking at the figures there is still major support for the union despite the perception that the SNP have overwhelming support.  I mean there were almost 500k more votes for Labour and the Scottish Conservatives alone than the SNP got. The SNP enjoy the level of representation that they do largely due to FPTP. 
 

2017 election results

I agree.We still haven’t got to the bottom of which currency an independent Scotland would use.Im taking it they would apply to join the EU in a post Brexit world.That would surely result in cut backs to their government spending,to fit in with the strict EU rules.Would they be able to continue giving free university tuition and medical prescriptions?Would the EU even want Scotland?Would the EU let Scotland use the Euro?

If the rest of the Union has left the EU,and there are restrictions to FOM,Scotland will become one of the destinations of choice for cheap labour.What would the border situation be?Its definitely not a foregone conclusion that Scotland would vote for independence.

[Trav Le Bleu]

Am I the only one who thinks they, ironically, the Brexit party could well make Brexit less likely, or even scupper it all together, by dividing the vote too much?

 

I know Farage has been talking of an Alliance, but surely the best way is to pull out altogether and say, if you want to leave, vote Tory.

 

But I think Farage's ego would never allow that.

[BlueSi13]

7 hours ago, MattP said:

Back to the GE.

 

Nigel Farage is now the biggest danger and obstacle to Brexit in this country.

 

 

Yup can see it now.  "Farage, the man who won Brexit and then gave it away"

 

He's playing an extremely dangerous game.   The fact that remainers are celebrating after his speech today should make all those who have so far supported and donated to the Brexit Party stop and pause.

 

Boris's deal isn't perfect, but after three years of bitter infighting that has damaged relationships between family, friends, coworkers and communities it gives us an orderly transitional withdrawal that looks toward a free trade deal in future.  Better to take a scrappy 1-0 win rather than lose everything.

 

Said it once and I'll say it a million times, if Boris doesn't get a majority Brexit is dead and buried and it's never coming back.

 

Edited 1 November 2019 by BlueSi13

[StanSP]

Bit shit how the first TV debate announced is just Tory vs Labour? As if none of the other parties haven't gained some popularity over the last few years. 

[Legend_in_blue]

I think Boris is in trouble.  Farage will scupper his plans good and proper.  People will begin to see through him.

 

I'd rather the Lib Dems pick up the pieces.  

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, HappyHamza said:

Yes, hence only posting during a break. 

I'd like to imagine that you found other things to do with your day  off as well as spending all of your day posting in this thread. 

I did, I worked on a personal project I have (whilst doing those posts), spent time with my family (anyone reading this seriously do it, you miss it so much when they are gone as I am doing now having lost two so close to me this year), then I had a few drinks with friends and now I'm ready for bed. 

 

If you are interested tomorrow I'm up early for breakfast watching the rugby, going to see friends, then watching soccer saturday, then out for dinner with the wife.

 

It beats signing up for a website on numerous occasions under different personas doesn't it because you are scared to tell people who you are. Why do you do this? 

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, BlueSi13 said:

Yup can see it now.  "Farage, the man who won Brexit and then gave it away"

 

He's playing an extremely dangerous game.   The fact that remainers are celebrating after his speech today should make all those who have so far supported and donated to the Brexit Party stop and pause.

 

Boris's deal isn't perfect, but after three years of bitter infighting that has damaged relationships between family, friends, coworkers and communities it gives us an orderly transitional withdrawal that looks toward a free trade deal in future.  Better to take a scrappy 1-0 win rather than lose everything.

 

Said it once and I'll say it a million times, if Boris doesn't get a majority Brexit is dead and buried and it's never coming back.

 

Nailed it.

[String fellow]

If the losers of the GE are unhappy with the result, will they try to overturn it by using any means possible, including legal means, if they think that the winners told porkies? Perhaps the losers will insist on a confirmatory GE! Why do I fear that we haven't yet heard the last of SWMBO (Gina Miller)? Personally, I'm totally disillusioned by British politics and British politicians, and I suspect the future political historians will look back at this period in our history with incredulity.

[Charl91]

20 minutes ago, String fellow said:

If the losers of the GE are unhappy with the result, will they try to overturn it by using any means possible, including legal means, if they think that the winners told porkies? Perhaps the losers will insist on a confirmatory GE! Why do I fear that we haven't yet heard the last of SWMBO (Gina Miller)? Personally, I'm totally disillusioned by British politics and British politicians, and I suspect the future political historians will look back at this period in our history with incredulity.

 

Nope, apparently saying anything is fair game. Labour may as well accuse Tories of spending £2 billion per year on shooting puppies and kittens, because apparently it doesn't matter what you promise, or whether there's even an iota of truth in what you say, as long as you're on the "winning side".

 

Once you "win" then everyone has to get behind you, no complaints, regardless of what you've said or done previously. 

 

 

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

39 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

If you are interested tomorrow I'm up early for breakfast watching the rugby, going to see friends, then watching soccer saturday, then out for dinner with the wife.

 

 

Did I just see someone, in a low key sort of way, come out as married? 

[Nick]

There’s a Lib Dem & SNP relationship bubbling I would think. There’s a demographic of voters who are Tory remain who won’t vote for Boris or Corbyn but have seen the Tory defection of numerous MP’s to the Lib Dem’s and a whole load of Labour remain and a separate section that simply won’t vote for Corbyn.... it’ll take an almighty swing but I do wonder if there’s appetite for it.

[Nick]

5 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Did I just see someone, in a low key sort of way, come out as married? 

That’s worthy of a thread in itself.