FT General Election Poll 2019

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

 

10+ points ahead in the polls is basically immaterial.

 

Tory-held seats but with a more Remain-leaning electorate and a slim majority are under severe pressure from the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the SNP. This could be as much as 45 seats at risk according to DeltaPoll.

It's not immaterial

 

Obviously it's hard to predict as constituency voting could be volatile bit you would still much rather be 10pts ahead than behind.

[Guest MattP]

Anyway first post election called polling......

 

 

 

[Gerard]

On 30/10/2019 at 10:55, Bobby Hundreds said:

I'll vote tactically against Brexit but expect it's a lost cause in South Leicestershire.

 

South Leicestershire for me as well and I'll vote the best party to stop Brexit and to keep the Tories out. 

 

Tories won with 61.4% of the vote in 2017

Labour 28.5%

Lib Dem 4.2%

 

I went on that tactical voting website and it amazingly recommended I vote Lib Dem. I'll have to look further into that. 

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Gerard said:

South Leicestershire for me as well and I'll vote the best party to stop Brexit and to keep the Tories out. 

 

Tories won with 61.4% of the vote in 2017

Labour 28.5%

Lib Dem 4.2%

 

I went on that tactical voting website and it amazingly recommended I vote Lib Dem. I'll have to look further into that. 

The Lib Dems did this last time - got all the apps and websites out that just told 90% of the country to vote Lib Dem

[Mickey O'Neil]

1 hour ago, ousefox said:

 

 

I'm just trying to work out how much of a single issue this election is going to be. Do all the other policies/personalities go out the window? 

For the vast majority, I think the GE is about Brexit, despite us wanting to discuss or vote on policies regarding the NHS/Crime/police etc. It’s tactical voting (and yes, reading your posts, I know you know that). I’m answering your question and not being facetious by the way. 

Brexit needs to be put to bed one way or another before many people can move on. 

 

On a side note, it's amazing how many lefties bash Boris, yet look away from Corbyn’s antisemitic agenda and his support of the IRA. 

 

I certainly won’t vote Lib Dem’s. I know all politicians live in dreamland, but to think the world will just dismantle its nuclear weapons is on another level. 
 

I protest-voted 3 or 4 years ago and would do the same this time. However, in this current situation, it’d be wasted. I’m just voting on the Brexit situation. 

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

The Lib Dems did this last time - got all the apps and websites out that just told 90% of the country to vote Lib Dem

Haha, snide bastards. Everyone seems to be getting excited about them running Rees-Mogg close. Lo and behold, it turns out Labour have come second there in every election he's stood in.

[RoboFox]

The Conservative backbenchers acting like schoolyard bullies. F***ing disgraceful c**ts.

 

At least Theresa May has the conscience to take them to task.

 

 

[Guest MattP]

The audience at this Labour campaign launch haven't been properly briefed I don't think. When Corbyn shouts "Who are you with?!" I'm sure the response is supposed to be "the people" rather than "you".

 

Interesting though, he wouldn't commit to giving the current shadown cabinet jobs in government (bye bye Thorberry and Watson) and seemed to avoid the question on abolishing Eton, he wouldn't answer whether he would vote leave or remain in a second referendum.

On hs plus side for him it's clear he's going to try and push the Trump/NHS line, that's probably going to play well on the doorstep.

 

 

 

[Guest MattP]

9 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Haha, snide bastards. Everyone seems to be getting excited about them running Rees-Mogg close. Lo and behold, it turns out Labour have come second there in every election he's stood in.

They always have been, heard so many stories about them, Labour and the Tories get upto some shit but this lot on the ground are a different league. 

 

I mean just look at the smallprint here.

 

 

[Guest MattP]

Hahaha this response...

 

[RoboFox]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

They always have been, heard so many stories about them, Labour and the Tories get upto some shit but this lot on the ground are a different league. 

 

I mean just look at the smallprint here.

 

 

Real talk, though.

You're a human being with a 1.5kg organ in your skull so ****ing amazing it defies the laws of its own construction, and you use it to decide they want to vote for a c**t like JACOB REES-MOGG?! 

 

Even the most ardent Tory voters I know think the guy's a ****ing joke. A caricature.

 

 

[Stadt]

On 30/10/2019 at 02:00, Stadt said:

Spoiled ballot, probably. This is the first year I've actually bothered to register to vote in Sheff. More than you can say for most places your vote actually matters here though - will look at all the prospectives and the party manifestos to come to a decision. Every major party is deplorable in my eyes though so will need some convincing to vote for anyone. 

Well I said that but these were the figures last time hahaha, safe as houses Labour seat

 

General election 2017: Sheffield Central^[11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Paul Blomfield	33,963	70.9	+15.9
	Conservative	Stephanie Roe	6,215	13.0	+1.8
	Green	Natalie Bennett	3,848	8.0	-7.8
	Liberal Democrat	Shaffaq Mohammed	2,465	5.1	-4.5
	UKIP	Dominic Cook	1,060	2.2	-5.2
	Yorkshire Party	Jack Carrington	197	0.4	N/A
	Pirate	Rob Moran	91	0.2	N/A
	SDP	Joe Westnidge	38	0.1	N/A

 

Will be voting for the Pirate party if they stand  

[Guest MattP]

7 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

You're a human being with a 1.5kg organ in your skull so ****ing amazing it defies the laws of its own construction, and the people of North East Somerset use it to decide they want to vote for a c**t like JACOB REES-MOGG?! 

 

Even the most ardent Tory voters I know think the guy's a ****ing joke. A caricature.

 

Inbreeding genuinely must be rife in that area. It's the only answer.

Quite like him personally, I also think it's important all different viewpoints are representated in parliament and it doesn't bother me if someone is educated and posh, in addition to that at these times of constitutional crisis I think the more people in the house with a vast knowledge of Erskine May is actually quite important, on all sides of the house.

Maybe that just makes me thick though

[Finnaldo]

16 minutes ago, MattP said:

They always have been, heard so many stories about them, Labour and the Tories get upto some shit but this lot on the ground are a different league. 

 

I mean just look at the smallprint here.

 

 

 

 

The Libs Dems are honestly the slimiest bastards I've seen. 

 

I live in Bosworth constituency and Tories have held it for 50 years next year, Lib Dems have been the second biggest party since 2010 and their main campaign slogan since has been 'Labour can't win here'.

 

When I went to the local debate at the last election the Lib Dems candidate's argument was in basic terms: "The Tories are clearly going to get a majority, Labour can't win here, at least I'll fight for our constituency"

 

....he finished third behind the Labour candidate  

[RoboFox]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Quite like him personally, I also think it's important all different viewpoints are representated in parliament and it doesn't bother me if someone is educated and posh, in addition to that at these times of constitutional crisis I think the more people in the house with a vast knowledge of Erskine May is actually quite important, on all sides of the house.

Maybe that just makes me thick though

 

Matt, lets be honest you could get a farmyard animal and as long as someone stuck a Conservative rosette on it, you'd be slapping on the factor 50 and bathing in the sunshine emanating from it's arse. 

 

According to you, Tories are basically impervious to criticism, but his voting record is nothing short of disgraceful.

 

Someone with his views should be absolutely nowhere near politics in the 21st century.

[Guest MattP]

17 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

 

The Libs Dems are honestly the slimiest bastards I've seen. 

 

I live in Bosworth constituency and Tories have held it for 50 years next year, Lib Dems have been the second biggest party since 2010 and their main campaign slogan since has been 'Labour can't win here'.

 

When I went to the local debate at the last election the Lib Dems candidate's argument was in basic terms: "The Tories are clearly going to get a majority, Labour can't win here, at least I'll fight for our constituency"

 

....he finished third behind the Labour candidate  

 

There is an old story in Glenfield about the referendum party candidate campaignng at the turn of this century that hadn't kept up with the boundary changes (I think Charnwood and South Leicestershire were created and various parts of Blaby went to either) and completely miscalulated that the village had gone into South Leicestershire instead of Charnwood where it stills sits today.

So for days on end he was walking the streets and knocking on the doors of a village trying to get votes that wasn't even in the constituency he was standing in and didn't even have a candidate for his party

[Guest MattP]

11 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

Matt, lets be honest you could get a farmyard animal and as long as someone stuck a Conservative rosette on it, you'd be slapping on the factor 50 and bathing in the sunshine emanating from it's arse. 

 

According to you, Tories are basically impervious to criticism, but his voting record is nothing short of disgraceful.Someone with his views should be absolutely nowhere near politics in the 21st century.

This bollocks again? I haven't voted Tory at the last three elections I've been to the ballot box at, I wouldn't vote for at least 20 of the current crop of candidates as they don't represent my views.

 

As for the last line - that's up for the public to decide. If you want to block religious people from standing for office I'd say that shows more about your intolerance tha his.

[rachhere]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

They always have been, heard so many stories about them, Labour and the Tories get upto some shit but this lot on the ground are a different league. 

 

I mean just look at the smallprint here.

 

 

Thanks for that. I think I might save it as an example of misrepresentation of data when I am next running a research methods class! 

[StanSP]

 

 

[Guest MattP]

38 minutes ago, StanSP said:

 

 

I really hope this isn't the case. It's bad enough seeing the Lib Dems all doing the chicken run without seeing it from the Prime Minister. 

 

I mean what's the point anyway? If Boris seriously can't hold Uxbridge the Tories are back to William Hague numbers anyway. 

 

Where is his source for this? He doesn't even seem be a journalist and more a left-wing campaigner looking at his tweets.

[David Guiza]

11 minutes ago, MattP said:

I really hope this isn't the case. It's bad enough seeing the Lib Dems all doing the chicken run without seeing it from the Prime Minister. 

 

I mean what's the point anyway? If Boris seriously can't hold Uxbridge the Tories are back to William Hague numbers anyway. 

 

Where is his source for this? He doesn't even seem be a journalist and more a left-wing campaigner looking at his tweets.

I imagine it's an educated guess on the basis of Alan Duncan's resignation and how safe that seat is in comparison to his current spot. 

 

Really doesn't send out a great message if it's true, as you mention. 

[Alf Bentley]

18 minutes ago, MattP said:

I really hope this isn't the case. It's bad enough seeing the Lib Dems all doing the chicken run without seeing it from the Prime Minister. 

 

I mean what's the point anyway? If Boris seriously can't hold Uxbridge the Tories are back to William Hague numbers anyway. 

 

Where is his source for this? He doesn't even seem be a journalist and more a left-wing campaigner looking at his tweets.

 

There are clearly some rumours out there as a Labour MP was teasing him in the Commons about rumours he was scarpering to Sevenoaks.

 

If there is any truth in it, I can only think they're being pessimistic / ultra-cautious about there being massively more tactical voting than before.

Labour finished 2nd in Uxbridge in 2017 with the Lib Dems polling less than 2000 votes.

 

Labour did exceptionally well in London in 2017, but I reckon they could go backwards there this time, not least due to some Remain voters switching to the LDs - unless tactical voting is at unprecedented levels.

I'd expect Labour to lose a few London seats, not gain more - though LDs might take a few (but not Uxbridge from such a low base, surely?).

 

Certainly wouldn't be a good look, if true - cue plenty of jeering if so. Might just be bullshit....

 

Edit: Mind you, I was forgetting that Richard Tice of the Brexit Party was rumoured to be standing against him.....if that's true, maybe they fear losing due to a split Right/Leave vote? 

 

[purpleronnie]

Might as well give Boris a majority now.  I have very little interest if I'm honest. 

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

There are clearly some rumours out there as a Labour MP was teasing him in the Commons about rumours he was scarpering to Sevenoaks.

 

If there is any truth in it, I can only think they're being pessimistic / ultra-cautious about there being massively more tactical voting than before.

Labour finished 2nd in Uxbridge in 2017 with the Lib Dems polling less than 2000 votes.

 

Labour did exceptionally well in London in 2017, but I reckon they could go backwards there this time, not least due to some Remain voters switching to the LDs - unless tactical voting is at unprecedented levels.

I'd expect Labour to lose a few London seats, not gain more - though LDs might take a few (but not Uxbridge from such a low base, surely?).

 

Certainly wouldn't be a good look, if true - cue plenty of jeering if so. Might just be bullshit....

 

Edit: Mind you, I was forgetting that Richard Tice of the Brexit Party was rumoured to be standing against him.....if that's true, maybe they fear losing due to a split Right/Leave vote? 

 

It's a strange seat looking at it - back in 2015 it's about 75% Tory and UKIP yet closed up in 2017. Did he lose that many remainers to Labour?

 

As you say as well - who takes it? A swing to Labour doesn't look likely, let alone one of 5% and the Liberals have nothing at all to say they can challenge.

 

If the Brexit party does stand in this it will pretty much confirm they don't really care about leaving and the real aim is to replace the Conservative party.

 

If he does move the internal polling must be pretty bad.

[Innovindil]

6 hours ago, ousefox said:

 

Would you vote Labour if they were the party advocating Brexit and the Tories remain? Given that Corbyn is the lifelong Eurosceptic and Johnson seemed to choose it for his own personal interest it's an interesting question.

 

I'm just trying to work out how much of a single issue this election is going to be. Do all the other policies/personalities go out the window?

I wouldn't vote labour ever. So the question is a bit moot. But that's more to do with past than present. 

 

Of course it's not a single issue election, but to deny brexit is a big issue is impossible. Bar brexit, I've seen no reason why I wouldn't vote tory. At least before we had the whole austerity thing as an actual opposition point (even if I didn't particularly agree with it). Now with the coffers opening for nhs/police/education etc etc it seems the best anyone can come up with is "BUT BORIS?!" or "muh secret murican meetings". 

 

Meanwhile there has been summaries all day on the radio of the opening salvos, tories have gone with education/police/NHS etc etc, labour have gone with "we'll hunt the rich like Foxes!" and the lib dems have ridiculously just come out with "stop brexit!". I honestly couldn't name another lib dem policy, how on earth could I vote for them when I disagree with their one policy?