Starmer Next Labour Leader

[Lionator]

On 13/12/2019 at 09:08, Lionator said:

Yeah absolutely. Most likely Long-Bailey I reckon. Their grip on the party is irreversible from my perspective. Even this morning the likes of Owen Jones and Ash Sarker are in complete denial that this country will not vote for a socialist government. It’s ideology over realism and at the end of the day we need to accept that this is a centrist country, it always will be and in this election, bizarrely, Johnson was closer to the centre, therefore won, oh and Brexit. 

So things have moved on a bit and are looking surprisingly positive. We have 6 confirmed standing with maybe 1 or 2 more to follow. We have,

 

Clive Lewis - Seems like a decent bloke and is making good sounds but doesn't have the support to mount a serious challenge.

Emily Thornberry - Just no.

Lisa Nandy - Again seems to have good ideas and would be the second best person for actually bringing the party back together. The left seem to hate her though. 

Jess Phillips - Personally can't stand her, me me me, although I can see why people would support her. Realistically will be too divisive to win and still wants a second referendum.

Rebecca Long-Bailey - Dim witted, gave Corbyn 10/10 for his election performance, will be the choice of the irrational left of the party. Please no.

Keir Starmer - Not outstanding but clearly the safe pair of hands the party needs right now. Has reached out to all sections of the party and could unite the party. Needs to shake off Brexit baggage. 

 

Yougov poll indicates that Starmer is the clear favourite which surprised me a bit, as you can see from my earlier post I thought that the momentum grip was too tight but I think he appeals to enough people on that side of the party to get enough votes to see him over the line. Then and only then can Labour start to be taken seriously as a credible opposition again. 

[Strokes]

4 minutes ago, Lionator said:

So things have moved on a bit and are looking surprisingly positive. We have 6 confirmed standing with maybe 1 or 2 more to follow. We have,

 

Clive Lewis - Seems like a decent bloke and is making good sounds but doesn't have the support to mount a serious challenge.

Emily Thornberry - Just no.

Lisa Nandy - Again seems to have good ideas and would be the second best person for actually bringing the party back together. The left seem to hate her though. 

Jess Phillips - Personally can't stand her, me me me, although I can see why people would support her. Realistically will be too divisive to win and still wants a second referendum.

Rebecca Long-Bailey - Dim witted, gave Corbyn 10/10 for his election performance, will be the choice of the irrational left of the party. Please no.

Keir Starmer - Not outstanding but clearly the safe pair of hands the party needs right now. Has reached out to all sections of the party and could unite the party. Needs to shake off Brexit baggage. 

 

Yougov poll indicates that Starmer is the clear favourite which surprised me a bit, as you can see from my earlier post I thought that the momentum grip was too tight but I think he appeals to enough people on that side of the party to get enough votes to see him over the line. Then and only then can Labour start to be taken seriously as a credible opposition again. 

I’d give it time for momentum to tell the sheep who they’re backing before taking approval ratings serious.

They never planned for this to happen and were not remotely prepared, so have not had a chance to mobilise yet.

I’m convinced RLB will win.

[Guest MattP]

5 minutes ago, Strokes said:

I’d give it time for momentum to tell the sheep who they’re backing before taking approval ratings serious.

They never planned for this to happen and were not remotely prepared, so have not had a chance to mobilise yet.

I’m convinced RLB will win.

Just wait until the actual campaign starts and Momentum get going.

 

They'll hit Starmer with everything they have got - one of the nutters from Novara Media said they've got to destroy him to point where he withdraws from the race.

 

It all depends what the numbers are inside the party now and how many of the "supporters" will pay the £25 to vote. A few of the Corbyn cult might not bother this time around.

[Lionator]

7 minutes ago, Strokes said:

I’d give it time for momentum to tell the sheep who they’re backing before taking approval ratings serious.

They never planned for this to happen and were not remotely prepared, so have not had a chance to mobilise yet.

I’m convinced RLB will win.

She's as thick as mince, I would like to think that the election has woken enough people in the party up to the major limitations of that side of the party.

[Lionator]

Just now, MattP said:

Just wait until the actual campaign starts and Momentum get going.

 

They'll hit Starmer with everything they have got - one of the nutters from Novara Media said they've got to destroy him to point where he withdraws from the race.

 

It all depends what the numbers are inside the party now and how many of the "supporters" will pay the £25 to vote. A few of the Corbyn cult might not bother this time around.

You're a bit late, it's already started! 

 

I do appreciate the whole Brexit thing doesn't paint him in a great light but he's already stated that it's done now and all he's bothered about is getting a good trade deal. If he can really push that then it hopefully won't do too much damage with the wider electorate.

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, Lionator said:

She's as thick as mince, I would like to think that the election has woken enough people in the party up to the major limitations of that side of the party.

I genuinely hope you’re right, Corbyn was a disaster for not just the Labour Party but for the country. She would be even worse.

As much as I don’t agree with Starmer, he stands head and shoulders above all the other confirmed candidates. He is at the very least a credible human.

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, Lionator said:

You're a bit late, it's already started! 

 

I do appreciate the whole Brexit thing doesn't paint him in a great light but he's already stated that it's done now and all he's bothered about is getting a good trade deal. If he can really push that then it hopefully won't do too much damage with the wider electorate.

 

As I've said I think Starmer is by far the most competent of the lot, he's probably the best choice of the lot.

 

(Although I think unless the next five years is a total disaster Boris wins again anyway, he's up there with Thatcher and Blair when it comes to electoral stardust)

 

Ian Lavery standing is a cracker as well - he was responsible for this PMQ stunner, imagine being this incompetent you use your own question to drop your own party in the shit.

 

As an aside - in just nine years it's amazing how different the two major parties now look compared to that.

[Guest MattP]

11 minutes ago, Strokes said:

I genuinely hope you’re right, Corbyn was a disaster for not just the Labour Party but for the country. She would be even worse.

As much as I don’t agree with Starmer, he stands head and shoulders above all the other confirmed candidates. He is at the very least a credible human.

At least you know Starmer wont have communist advisors who cant clear security, wont spout Russian propaganda at PMQ's and wont be caught mixing with holocaust deniers.

 

A lot of the MP's who just a few weeks ago were asking us to make Corbyn the PM should be totally ashamed to be honest. Integrity should never recover from it.

 

I think the longer time goes on the Corbyn period will look more and more insane - when we look back with a clear head it will be mental a man like that once led HM opposition. 

Edited 7 January 2020 by MattP

[Strokes]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

As I've said I think Starmer is by far the most competent of the lot, he's probably the best choice of the lot.

 

(Although I think unless the next five years is a total disaster Boris wins again anyway, he's up there with Thatcher and Blair when it comes to electoral stardust)

 

Ian Lavery standing is a cracker as well - he was responsible for this PMQ stunner, imagine being this incompetent you use your own question to drop your own party in the shit.

 

As an aside - in just nine years it's amazing how different the two major parties now look compared to that.

I know he had his faults but I do miss Cameron.

[Strokes]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

At least you know Starmer wont have communist advisors who cant clear security, wont spout Russian propaganda and PMQ's and wont be caught mixing with holocaust deniers.

 

A lot of the MP's who just a few weeks ago were asking us to make Corbyn the PM should be totally ashamed to be honest. Integrity should never recover from it.

 

I think the longer time goes on the Corbyn period will look more and more insane - when we look back with a clear head it will be mental a man like that once led HM opposition. 

Have we got any bookies odds on the next Labour Leader? I might put my money where my mouth is and put a wedge on RBL.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Strokes said:

Have we got any bookies odds on the next Labour Leader? I might put my money where my mouth is and put a wedge on RBL.

She's 5/2 at bet365.

 

Starmer 8/11 fav

Nandy 9/1

Phillips 12/1

25/1 bar

 

At this stage in 2015 though Jeremy Corbyn was 100/1. (Probably the only time in history the bookies underestimated the stupidity of a large part of the public)

[Guest MattP]

PMQ's will be well worth a watch tomorrow - if Corbyn does start defending the Iranian regime his backbenchers are under no obligation now to sit there, free reign to stand up and have a go at him.

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Lionator said:

So things have moved on a bit and are looking surprisingly positive. We have 6 confirmed standing with maybe 1 or 2 more to follow. We have,

 

Clive Lewis - Seems like a decent bloke and is making good sounds but doesn't have the support to mount a serious challenge.

Emily Thornberry - Just no.

Lisa Nandy - Again seems to have good ideas and would be the second best person for actually bringing the party back together. The left seem to hate her though. 

Jess Phillips - Personally can't stand her, me me me, although I can see why people would support her. Realistically will be too divisive to win and still wants a second referendum.

Rebecca Long-Bailey - Dim witted, gave Corbyn 10/10 for his election performance, will be the choice of the irrational left of the party. Please no.

Keir Starmer - Not outstanding but clearly the safe pair of hands the party needs right now. Has reached out to all sections of the party and could unite the party. Needs to shake off Brexit baggage. 

 

Yougov poll indicates that Starmer is the clear favourite which surprised me a bit, as you can see from my earlier post I thought that the momentum grip was too tight but I think he appeals to enough people on that side of the party to get enough votes to see him over the line. Then and only then can Labour start to be taken seriously as a credible opposition again. 

 

I'm not far off sharing this assessment. I'm a bit less sold on Starmer yet (though he's definitely a serious option) and a bit less hostile to Phillips (though I can imagine her grating with regular exposure).

 

I'd like to hear more from Lewis and Nandy, as I've liked what I've heard so far, though neither is guaranteed to get nominated by enough MPs/MEPs (21?) to get onto the ballot paper.

My guess is that Starmer, Long-Bailey & Phillips will be on the ballot paper, possibly Nandy, but that Lewis & Thornberry might miss out.

 

Here's Long-Bailey's piece for Tribune: https://tribunemag.co.uk/2020/01/rebecca-long-bailey-labour-leadership-socialism  

One look at that is enough for me to cross her off the list! Jesus! By all means praise some of the policies like the Green New Deal, but viewing "Jeremy" as a God, seeing anyone before him as "Tory-lite" & announcing that "we need a proud socialist....driven by their principles and an unwavering determination to see democratic socialism in our lifetime" ?!? No, thanks, Rebecca. I don't think we should spend the rest of our lifetimes (and you're much younger than me) banging our heads against the wall in pursuit of some Hard Left utopian wish list of "democratic socialism". I want to see Labour become a credible alternative pragmatic, in-touch left-leaning govt within 1-2 years - and preferably leading the national govt in 5 years. For all their massive flaws, Blair & Brown did a lot more for this country than Corbyn ever did.

 

I'm not sure that Phillips said she still wanted a 2nd referendum, did she? She didn't rule out Labour going into the next election calling for the UK to rejoin the EU......which was very unwise. While I could imagine us rejoining in 10-20 years, and I suppose there's a sliver of a chance that it could happen sooner, it's very unlikely people will want to go through a reverse Brexit process ("Brentrance"?) within 5 years.....Even if Brexit immediately proves a complete and obvious disaster, would the public recognise it as such and want to rejoin? I can imagine a lot of folk being in denial or blaming other people or other causes. Starmer's focus on ensuring a good trade deal, protecting rights & ensuring a close UK-EU relationship post-Brexit makes a lot more sense. Foot-in-mouth moments like this are what makes me doubt the wisdom of choosing Phillips as leader.

 

So, I could be down to choosing between Starmer, Nandy & Lewis, whichever make it onto the ballot.... 

[LiberalFox]

It'll probably be Starmer unless he manages to completely mess it up or someone else gets some momentum(no pun meant couldn't think of a better word). If I was actually Labour I'd probably want Clive Lewis. Unless the country goes to shit I reckon Johnson will win again next time out anyway.

 

Best way for momentum to stop Starmer would be to ask Corbyn to back him.

Edited 7 January 2020 by LiberalFox

[Tuna]

Not impressed one bit by Clive Lewis on Newsnight last night.

[Jon the Hat]

Shower if shit the lot of them.

when Yvette Cooper looks a million times better than anyone standing...

[urban.spaceman]

[Alf Bentley]

10 hours ago, Tuna said:

Not impressed one bit by Clive Lewis on Newsnight last night.

 

Me neither - and I've been favourably disposed to him before. Too little political/strategic direction, too much "process" and too much manoeuvring for votes.

 

Nothing wrong with some of his ideas (openness to other centre-left parties/campaign groups, electoral reform, involvement of members in policymaking) but too much such "process" & too little on the party's main purpose & political priorities left him seeming a bit dithering & vacuous to me - not a good leadership look. Also, fair enough to share the blame for electoral failure more broadly than just Corbyn, but I could almost see the cogs whirring in his brain - seeking not to alienate Hard Left MPs/members while distancing himself a bit from Corbyn and presenting himself as a change.

 

All reports suggest that Nandy was the stand-out performer at the hustings for Labour MPs last night. Apparently there's not even a single Labour MP openly backing Thornberry.....so starting to look as if phase 2 of the contest (candidates seeking support of constituency parties, unions & affiliated organisations) might be Long-Bailey, Starmer, Phillips & Nandy.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

Oh just give the job to Diane Abbott.

[Guest MattP]

11 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Oh just give the job to Diane Abbott.

Labour have always had an obvious "joke" candidate in these leadership elections since I've followed politics, Margaret Beckett in the 90', Diane Abbott in 2010, Jeremy Corbyn in 2015. 

 

This year its actually quite hard to see who the joke candidate is as there are more of them than serious candidates. Lavery has done us a favour dropping out but it could be either of Long-Bailey, Phillips, Thornberry or Lewis.

 

(Concur with those about Lewis on Newsnight as well, five more years of "you're racist" really isnt what is needed, if you genuinely want to go down that route go full pint and give it to David Lammy)

[oxford blue]

I like the Matt cartoon on RBL:

[Bilo]

The reality is that if, as looks likely, Starmer becomes leader the LP becomes a serious party again. 

 

No more scraping the barrel for a Shadow Cabinet, (I'm looking forward to Benn vs Raab and Cooper vs Patel,) probably jettisoning the real swivel-eyed Corbots who think the Canary, Novara Media and Skwawkbox are serious news outlets and, on that subject, the likes of Aaron Bastani, Ash Sarkar et al become utterly irrelevant again. 

[Manini]

23 hours ago, Strokes said:

I know he had his faults but I do miss Cameron.

He made PMQs very very interesting 

[Tuna]

Barry Gardiner has joined the race:

 

 

[Lionator]

9 hours ago, MattP said:

Labour have always had an obvious "joke" candidate in these leadership elections since I've followed politics, Margaret Beckett in the 90', Diane Abbott in 2010, Jeremy Corbyn in 2015. 

 

This year its actually quite hard to see who the joke candidate is as there are more of them than serious candidates. Lavery has done us a favour dropping out but it could be either of Long-Bailey, Phillips, Thornberry or Lewis.

 

(Concur with those about Lewis on Newsnight as well, five more years of "you're racist" really isnt what is needed, if you genuinely want to go down that route go full pint and give it to David Lammy)

Fortunately Barry Gardiner has put himself forward tonight to save the joke candidate tradition.