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Sly

The Championship Thread 2023/2024

By Sly, in Leicester City Forum

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Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

Might do the same. Lump a juicy 500 on. If we end up top 2, it'll be 500 well spent. Basically just doubling my season ticket. Worth every penny. 

 

**** it up, a tasty 3.5k compo.

 

Edit, I did the same prior to Burnley away in the last promotion campaign. Worth every penny.

Odds do seem generous, surely its already shrunk by now lol, bookies usually super tight.

Oasisedup

Oasisedup

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

Odds do seem generous, surely its already shrunk by now lol, bookies usually super tight.

Generous?

 

If you wanted to bet on us to go up with that firm, the best odds you can find is 1/20. An implied probability of 95%.

 

7/1 for us to not go up automatically is an implied probability of 12.5%.

 

7/1 is not really generous at all. 

 

Fans seem to be significantly underestimating our prospects, which is perhaps not surprising given collapses of recent years.

 

Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Oasisedup said:

Generous?

 

If you wanted to bet on us to go up with that firm, the best odds you can find is 1/20. An implied probability of 95%.

 

7/1 for us to not go up automatically is an implied probability of 12.5%.

 

7/1 is not really generous at all. 

 

Fans seem to be significantly underestimating our prospects, which is perhaps not surprising given collapses of recent years.

 

By their standards it seems generous to me.  I was expecting something like maybe 2/1 at best.

 

The 1/20 for going up is more in line with what I would expect.  Of course the combined odds show they have their house advantage bedded in.

Edited by Chrysalis
CheeseHead

CheeseHead

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

By their standards it seems generous to me.  I was expecting something like maybe 2/1 at best.

 

The 1/20 for going up is more in line with what I would expect.  Of course the combined odds show they have their house advantage bedded in.

Anyone who is absolutely convinced that we will drop into the playoffs will definitely feel that 7/1 is generous!

Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted
Just now, CheeseHead said:

Anyone who is absolutely convinced that we will drop into the playoffs will definitely feel that 7/1 is generous!

I dont think you need to be convinced its happening.  But I suppose if you think its extremely unlikely it seems bad, but I see it as a 50/50 right now.  Which to me would equate to a 2/1 odds.

CheeseHead

CheeseHead

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Chrysalis said:

I dont think you need to be convinced its happening.  But I suppose if you think its extremely unlikely it seems bad, but I see it as a 50/50 right now.  Which to me would equate to a 2/1 odds.

So you'll be lumping on?

Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CheeseHead said:

So you'll be lumping on?

I have been known to throw the occasional small bet every few years, but I dont have a skybet account and cant be bothered to make one.

 

Last one I think was on shakespeare getting sacked which was similar odds to this and I felt they had the odds ridiculously loose.  That one was a win.

CheeseHead

CheeseHead

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Chrysalis said:

I have been known to throw the occasional small bet every few years, but I dont have a skybet account and cant be bothered to make one.

 

Last one I think was on shakespeare getting sacked which was similar odds to this and I felt they had the odds ridiculously loose.  That one was a win.

If I honestly believed it was 50-50, I would be lumping on!

  • Like 1
Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, CheeseHead said:

If I honestly believed it was 50-50, I would be lumping on!

I will if bet365 (or betfair, I think have an account) offer the same bet.  But only a small bet, I am not really someone who bets anything more than very small sums every now and then.

Edited by Chrysalis
STEVIE B

STEVIE B

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Bazly said:

There are now 4 sides odds on to be promoted this season, who would figure?

Are you sure that's correct ? 

Edited by STEVIE B
Chelmofox

Chelmofox

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, STEVIE B said:

Are you sure that's correct ? 

This is how Betfair Exchange has it. Southampton and Ipswich above evens.  

 

image.png.f1f64f2091242463ad41803028bc1113.png

  • Like 2
filbertway

filbertway

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

I dont think you need to be convinced its happening.  But I suppose if you think its extremely unlikely it seems bad, but I see it as a 50/50 right now.  Which to me would equate to a 2/1 odds.

Sorry, but 50/50 would be evens and not 2/1 :D 

Number 6

Number 6

Posted
Posted

Updated Opta projections showing about a 91% chance of automatic promotion. Still high but obviously has dropped a lot over the last 5 weeks. Find the fixture difficulty ratings interesting. Southampton got a lot of tough games and a lot of games just in general!

 

Championship Predictions: Can Leeds Overhaul Leicester at the Top of the Table? https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/championship-predictions-promotion-relegation/

Guest leatherhead32

Guest leatherhead32

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, trugerkem said:

Surely if you believe Leicester won’t get promoted the best bet would be Leeds winners Ipswich 2nd at 18/1 

very good tip . i cashed out 2 days pre leeds at 600 rather than seeing if we won title and get 770 due to cash in hand rather than feeling anger at any of our lads ( i support at matches moaning never does any good) but your heads up worth nipping back to bookies . cheers

Lambert09

Lambert09

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, trugerkem said:

Surely if you believe Leicester won’t get promoted the best bet would be Leeds winners Ipswich 2nd at 18/1 

what about southampton  lol

 

still think they are more likely than ipswich 

Leicester_Loyal

Leicester_Loyal

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, FrankieADZ said:

Boro with a third win on the bounce, quiet the battle for 6th in the league, 5 points between 6th and 11th

 

 

They also still have to play Leeds, Ipswich and Saints, be nice if they take at least 4 points from those 3 games. 

Dan

Dan

Posted
Posted

They're a strange side Middlesbrough. Their ceiling on their day is pretty high. Definitely a side who could take points off one of those three.

  • Like 1
Ric Flair

Ric Flair

Posted
Posted
On 13/03/2024 at 02:17, Dan LCFC said:

They're a strange side Middlesbrough. Their ceiling on their day is pretty high. Definitely a side who could take points off one of those three.

They seem to be much more dangerous this season by not dictating play, we've seen this before with teams that can't break down teams themselves except those who won't sit back.

Foxmeister

Foxmeister

Posted
Posted
On 11/03/2024 at 18:15, Bazly said:

There are now 4 sides odds on to be promoted this season, who would figure?

That actually makes sense 2 of the 4 will definitely go up and the other 2 will be the first 2 in the betting for the play-offs. Were it a random 3 from 4 then each club would be 1/3.

Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/03/2024 at 14:05, trugerkem said:

Surely if you believe Leicester won’t get promoted the best bet would be Leeds winners Ipswich 2nd at 18/1 

Problem with that, it requires both to fall in place that order.  ut the odds arent bad as well, also tempting.

Edited by Chrysalis
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