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AnotherShitSeason

40/1 for the drop I see

By AnotherShitSeason, in Leicester City Forum

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted

Skybet:

 

1/6 - top half finish.

 

I wish I knew what the financial and transfer position of the club is, If we are planning on keeping that same squad and don't have to sell that's there to pile into, no way will we finish below 12th this season.

  • 3 weeks later...
Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted

80/1 now with BetVictor if anyone thinks we'll collapse so bad we can finish below Yeovil, Bournemouth, Doncaster, Millwall etc....

Guest Bilo

Guest Bilo

Posted
Posted

80/1 now with BetVictor if anyone thinks we'll collapse so bad we can finish below Yeovil, Bournemouth, Doncaster, Millwall etc....

 

I'll imagine there are a few hyper-pessimists who expect that to happen and consider that price good value.

 

I don't think I'd have a go if it was 800/1, the result would still be the same. 

Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted

Huge jump after last night.

150-1 with William Hill.

Teams at the bottom look poor this year, 45 might keep you up so nearly half way there.

Guest Col city fan

Guest Col city fan

Posted
Posted

Huge jump after last night.

150-1 with William Hill.

A few more wins and it'll be 1500/1

:thumbup:

  • 2 weeks later...
Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted

Upto 300/1 with Victor.

 

Probably half way there to what we need to stay up.

Corky

Corky

Posted
Posted

If we finish below Yeovil, Charlton, Sheffield Wednesday, Barnsley, Millwall among others Pearson deserves the sack and never invited back. 

Walker

Walker

Posted
Posted

Skybet:

 

66/1 - to be relegated.

 

5/4 - top 6 finish.

 

1/6 - top half finish.

 

6/4 - top Midlands club.

 

25/1 - Chris Wood top goalscorer.

33/1 - Dave Nugent top goalscorer.

66/1 - Jamie Vardy top goalscorer.

 

10/1 - finish 1st.

 

Oh hindsight is a great thing!

Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted

33/1 on Nuge top goalscorer wouldn't have been a bad bet.

 

Shame someone couldn't get inside info on the fact he was our new penalty taker, could have had a real old fashioned gamble.

Kitchandro

Kitchandro

Posted
Posted

Nah, it's just probability. Fair enough if you don't understand how probability works. I can't be bothered to explain further.

 

Want to explain to me the probability of us going down now?

 

Because you can offer me 500-1, 1,000-1 or 1000,000,000-1; we still aint going down. And we never were.

 

40-1 was a shit price and so was 66-1.

GingerrrFox

GingerrrFox

Posted
Posted

Want to explain to me the probability of us going down now?

 

Because you can offer me 500-1, 1,000-1 or 1000,000,000-1; we still aint going down. And we never were.

 

40-1 was a shit price and so was 66-1.

 

Hahahaha ****ing tell em! But to be fair I probably would have stuck a £ on 1000,000,000-1.

Kitchandro

Kitchandro

Posted
Posted

You aren't quite getting it - odds are a mark of probability: the shorter the odds the more likely the outcome - with 66/1 we're talking a 1 in 66 chance of it occurring - so if you were to simulate the season 66 times, would we get relegated more than once? If so the odds are nice because they're longer and so give a bigger payout than the actual probability is. It doesn't matter that the season happens once, we aren't measuring the outcome but rather the possibility of an outcome occurring.

Still, anyone who bets these in earnest rather than an insurance against disaster needs their head checking.

 

This is an interesting question.

 

If we repeated this season 66 times one after the other, each previous season would affect the next one. So you see, the fact we only play the season once is significant.

 

Because, if we played the season once, then went back in time 65 times and did it again, in theory the exact same thing would happen 66 times, unless someone did something to change the space/time continuum.

 

So I say to you, what specific things would change in these 66 different seasons to affect the space time continuum?

 

Because if we ran the season 66 times and did the exact same things, we'd have exactly the same outcome.

 

And I'd suggest the continuum would have to be affected dramatically for us to go down.

 

Also, football is far more predictable than say, horseracing. But that's a different argument.

Xen

Xen

Posted
Posted

Bookies' odds and probability are not the same thing, at all.

 

They're trying to make a profit, so they'll offer odds regardless of how implausible something is - and hapless mugs will snap it up thinking that they could get a good deal. It just isn't going to happen.

That's why they're raising the odds now - because people aren't betting (as they are twigging that it's a certain loss), so they're making it more attractive for them to 'gamble' away their money. It's stupid betting.

MooseBreath

MooseBreath

Posted
Posted

Bookies' odds and probability are not the same thing, at all.

They're trying to make a profit, so they'll offer odds regardless of how implausible something is - and hapless mugs will snap it up thinking that they could get a good deal. It just isn't going to happen.

That's why they're raising the odds now - because people aren't betting (as they are twigging that it's a certain loss), so they're making it more attractive for them to 'gamble' away their money. It's stupid betting.

Obviously the bookies set odds longer than what they perceive the probability to be, otherwise they wouldn't make any money.

Still doesn't take anything away from the fact that if you think the probability is higher than the odds, then it's good value.

I'd probably need around 10,000-1 at this stage.

Kitchandro

Kitchandro

Posted
Posted

Bookies' odds and probability are not the same thing, at all.

 

They're trying to make a profit, so they'll offer odds regardless of how implausible something is - and hapless mugs will snap it up thinking that they could get a good deal. It just isn't going to happen.

That's why they're raising the odds now - because people aren't betting (as they are twigging that it's a certain loss), so they're making it more attractive for them to 'gamble' away their money. It's stupid betting.

 

Exactly.

Guest Bilo

Guest Bilo

Posted
Posted

Good price. I'll maybe invest a bit extra.  :thumbup:

 

lol lol

 

How are you still posting on this?

 

If I'd humiliated myself to this extent online, I'd be attempting to bribe the mods with sexual favours to remove all evidence of my stupidity.

 

If I'd embarrassed myself to this extent in real life, I'd be standing in front of the 8:03 to St. Pancras.

Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted

Right then, which visionaries have got onboard with the 40/1? Must be a good few more by now??

 

Looking better & better as the days go by right!?

 

Just 1 week away from pre-season now. Squad weaker than last season. No new signings coming in. Untested youth due to be pushed through to the first team as a emergency measure. Nugent crocked. 90% of rival Championship sides doing the business & strengthening with some very astute signings.

"Boots On Fire" :rolleyes:  & his worthless cronies here for the long haul & pocketing thousands each week from the bench...all whilst planning their latest sports car purchase & tweeting each other re their latest high end home cinema upgrades. 

 

Ps. Here's a tip, do it £10 a week for the next 5 weeks, spread the load.

Mad £2K holiday to the Seychelles this time next year.  :thumbup:

 

Here to help. 

 

Heroic stuff.

 

Classic comments.

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