40/1 for the drop I see

[AnotherShitSeason]

lol

 

How are you still posting on this?

 

If I'd humiliated myself to this extent online, I'd be attempting to bribe the mods with sexual favours to remove all evidence of my stupidity.

 

If I'd embarrassed myself to this extent in real life, I'd be standing in front of the 8:03 to St. Pancras.

 

I can only conclude you must be a very weak & fragile human being then mate.

 

I on the other hand stand by my views. To the death!

 

Another deluded sort getting a hard on because we've managed to scrape past Yeovil & Barnsley. 

[Guest Bilo]

I can only conclude you must be a very weak & fragile human being then mate.

 

I on the other hand stand by my views. To the death!

 

Another deluded sort getting a hard on because we've managed to scrape past Yeovil & Barnsley. 

 

You think we're going to finish behind the likes of Yeovil, Millwall, Barnsley, Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Doncaster after gaining 23 points from the opening 30 available. I therefore hardly think you're in a position to call anybody deluded.

 

There's standing by your views and then there's the same kind of crazed, blinkered thinking that makes King Canute look shrewd.

 

You've humiliated yourself, kid. I didn't see you here when we played Wigan, current FA Cup holders, off the park.

 

Still; if you want to make the bookies richer, knock yourself out. I'm sure you'll give the staff a good laugh.

[AnotherShitSeason]

You think we're going to finish behind the likes of Yeovil, Millwall, Barnsley, Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Doncaster after gaining 23 points from the opening 30 available. I therefore hardly think you're in a position to call anybody deluded.

 

There's standing by your views and then there's the same kind of crazed, blinkered thinking that makes King Canute look shrewd.

 

You've humiliated yourself, kid. I didn't see you here when we played Wigan, current FA Cup holders, off the park.

 

Still; if you want to make the bookies richer, knock yourself out. I'm sure you'll give the staff a good laugh.

 

After Wigan I was too busy celebrating a fantastic win of course. 

 

Let's see where we are come Christmas. I'll then review the situation & deliver my analysis. 

 

Let's just say I've not got my jelly, ice cream & party poppers out just yet.

 

...ss you obviously have, Kid.

[Guest MattP]

After Wigan I was too busy celebrating a fantastic win of course. 

 

Let's see where we are come Christmas. I'll then review the situation & deliver my analysis. 

 

Let's just say I've not got my jelly, ice cream & party poppers out just yet.

 

...ss you obviously have, Kid.

 

What are you seeing as an acceptable season?

 

Midtable I presume considering you have tipped us to go down, would be beyond your wildiest dreams that wouldn't it?

[Harry - LCFC]

Anyone else find ASS to be their favourite poster? I do, makes me laugh like no other, comically negative. 

 

I miss our conversations though. 

[The Doctor]

This is an interesting question.

 

If we repeated this season 66 times one after the other, each previous season would affect the next one. So you see, the fact we only play the season once is significant.

 

Because, if we played the season once, then went back in time 65 times and did it again, in theory the exact same thing would happen 66 times, unless someone did something to change the space/time continuum.

 

So I say to you, what specific things would change in these 66 different seasons to affect the space time continuum?

 

Because if we ran the season 66 times and did the exact same things, we'd have exactly the same outcome.

 

And I'd suggest the continuum would have to be affected dramatically for us to go down.

 

Also, football is far more predictable than say, horseracing. But that's a different argument.

 

 

You clearly have no clue of how probability works. So, imagine someone had a simulation of 66 seasons running concurrently: would we finish in the bottom three in at least one of those simulations? if yes, then 66-1 is fair, if we'd finish in more than one of those simulations in the bottom 3 then 66-1 is great odds, if less then you're being sold short.

 

 

Stop talking about each season affecting each other because that has absolutely nothing to do with probability. The easiest way to explain it is: imagine a dice. roll it 20 times and what are the odds a 5 would be one of the results? We're talking that sort of thing on a much larger scale; the previous results have **** all bearing on the next result.

[Harry - LCFC]

You clearly have no clue of how probability works. So, imagine someone had a simulation of 66 seasons running concurrently: would we finish in the bottom three in at least one of those simulations? if yes, then 66-1 is fair, if we'd finish in more than one of those simulations in the bottom 3 then 66-1 is great odds, if less then you're being sold short.

 

 

Stop talking about each season affecting each other because that has absolutely nothing to do with probability. The easiest way to explain it is: imagine a dice. roll it 20 times and what are the odds a 5 would be one of the results? We're talking that sort of thing on a much larger scale; the previous results have **** all bearing on the next result.

 

I actually accept Kitchandro's point that if you start off in the same position (exactly the same that is) then the result will be the same. That's just what will happen, laws of physics and time and all that.

 

Seeing as you're going into such detail about this topic you might want to take a philosophical viewpoint that I've considered before: The outcome of this season is a certainty, we just don't know what that certainty is. If you knew all the variables and knew how to assess the knock on effects then you'd be able to give an exact prediction on the outcome of this season, it's just that we know so few of these variables so we have to guess.

 

One could argue there is no such thing is probability, only unpredictability.

[cjslcfc]

I actually accept Kitchandro's point that if you start off in the same position (exactly the same that is) then the result will be the same. That's just what will happen, laws of physics and time and all that.

 

Seeing as you're going into such detail about this topic you might want to take a philosophical viewpoint that I've considered before: The outcome of this season is a certainty, we just don't know what that certainty is. If you knew all the variables and knew how to assess the knock on effects then you'd be able to give an exact prediction on the outcome of this season, it's just that we know so few of these variables so we have to guess.

 

One could argue there is no such thing is probability, only unpredictability.

 One thing is certain. We aren't getting relegated. So no odds would even tempt me to make a bet

[AnotherShitSeason]

What are you seeing as an acceptable season?

 

Midtable I presume considering you have tipped us to go down, would be beyond your wildiest dreams that wouldn't it?

 

An acceptable season would be a play-off place. An even more acceptable season would be promotion. Obviously.

Where have I tipped us to go down? Can you even read English?

Go to the bottom of the class young Sir. And refer to my visionary insight via post numbers #17 & #58

 

 

Anyone else find ASS to be their favourite poster? I do, makes me laugh like no other, comically negative. 

 

I miss our conversations though. 

 

I'm always here for you Harry. You know that. 

Helpful advice to guide you though those formative years. I like to think that when you look back on things in later life you'll see me as wise old uncle who put you on the path to greatness, without you realising it at the time. 

[Ric Flair]

Just had another nifty on us.

[MooseBreath]

I actually accept Kitchandro's point that if you start off in the same position (exactly the same that is) then the result will be the same. That's just what will happen, laws of physics and time and all that.

Seeing as you're going into such detail about this topic you might want to take a philosophical viewpoint that I've considered before: The outcome of this season is a certainty, we just don't know what that certainty is. If you knew all the variables and knew how to assess the knock on effects then you'd be able to give an exact prediction on the outcome of this season, it's just that we know so few of these variables so we have to guess.

One could argue there is no such thing is probability, only unpredictability.

The existence of variables is why on each occurrence you will get a different result. Variables vary. You can't know the outcome, only assess the probability of each outcome occurring. That's where probability theory comes in. Probability theory is hundreds of years old and has been developed by some of the greatest mathematical minds to ever live. That's why you sound a bit silly dismissing it. There is nothing really debatable about it. The theory is correct.

[Guest MattP]

An acceptable season would be a play-off place. An even more acceptable season would be promotion. Obviously.

Where have I tipped us to go down? Can you even read English?

Go to the bottom of the class young Sir. And refer to my visionary insight via post numbers #17 & #58

 

You have seen us finishing between 22th and 24th as a serious enough option you have parted with money on it.

 

Then you say you think anything belows 6th would be unacceptable.

 

The logic isn't strong on this one.

[ADK]

It depends how you want to look at it. If I throw a coin you might say the odds of heads and tails is evens, yet the actual result is going to depend on how the coin is thrown and is governed by the laws of physics.

[The Doctor]

I actually accept Kitchandro's point that if you start off in the same position (exactly the same that is) then the result will be the same. That's just what will happen, laws of physics and time and all that.

 

Seeing as you're going into such detail about this topic you might want to take a philosophical viewpoint that I've considered before: The outcome of this season is a certainty, we just don't know what that certainty is. If you knew all the variables and knew how to assess the knock on effects then you'd be able to give an exact prediction on the outcome of this season, it's just that we know so few of these variables so we have to guess.

 

One could argue there is no such thing is probability, only unpredictability.

 

No it won't - variables vary, and with so many variables to consider in football you'll never get the exact same results twice. You can start in exactly the same way, but say you run the same season concurrently in 2 simulations; well after the start the variables kick in to play and won't come out the same. Maybe in one Kasper breaks a finger at the end of August and Logan is our keeper for the following months, in the other that doesn't happen... the events will never be exactly the same if you were to rerun the season.

 

Still the issue we've got is that Kitchensink has absolutely no clue of how probability works and is going on about it just being done once as if that's some how relevant...

[Dan]

It could be evens or a million to one, you'll get the same amount of money back in May.

[Dan]

You clearly have no clue of how probability works. So, imagine someone had a simulation of 66 seasons running concurrently: would we finish in the bottom three in at least one of those simulations? if yes, then 66-1 is fair, if we'd finish in more than one of those simulations in the bottom 3 then 66-1 is great odds, if less then you're being sold short.

 

 

Stop talking about each season affecting each other because that has absolutely nothing to do with probability. The easiest way to explain it is: imagine a dice. roll it 20 times and what are the odds a 5 would be one of the results? We're talking that sort of thing on a much larger scale; the previous results have **** all bearing on the next result.

 

But it isn't as easy as rolling a dice is it?

Just had another nifty on us.

 

Erm...

[The Doctor]

But it isn't as easy as rolling a dice is it?

 

Erm...

 

No, there's a lot more variables and potential outcomes than dice rolling, I was trying to simplify it because he doesn't have a clue how probability works.

[Dan]

No, there's a lot more variables and potential outcomes than dice rolling, I was trying to simplify it because he doesn't have a clue how probability works.

 

I see what you mean, but to make it one bit comparable, you'd need a biased dice - and I mean a dice that will land on Leicester over Yeovil nearly every time, for example.

[Kitchandro]

You clearly have no clue of how probability works. So, imagine someone had a simulation of 66 seasons running concurrently: would we finish in the bottom three in at least one of those simulations? if yes, then 66-1 is fair, if we'd finish in more than one of those simulations in the bottom 3 then 66-1 is great odds, if less then you're being sold short.

 

 

Stop talking about each season affecting each other because that has absolutely nothing to do with probability. The easiest way to explain it is: imagine a dice. roll it 20 times and what are the odds a 5 would be one of the results? We're talking that sort of thing on a much larger scale; the previous results have **** all bearing on the next result.

 

Well, if you're simplifying it like that (which is so the wrong way to think about something like this if you're gambling on it) then no, we wouldn't. Why would we? Let's assume for a second we finish top 6 this season. Why would we finish bottom 3 in the exact same circumstances?

 

How the hell is that like rolling a dice We're not rolling a dice, we're playing football. It's not that unpredictable, so probability that exists when rolling a dice barely exists at all in this circumstance. I understand probability, the thing is though that our performance this season has almost nothing to do with probability. It's not based on chance, it's based on how good the team is comparatively to others.

 

Are you taking January into account; in these 66 seasons do we buy different players in the window? Are we starting it on the first day of the season or in the summer before we've compiled a squad? Which variables are changing? And why are they changing? If they are changing, what has it got to do with this season, which is what we're betting on?

 

This is why your point isn't relevant to what we're talking about. We play the season once, we only have to avoid relegation once and if you think we're almost definitely going to avoid it once it makes no difference whether the odds are 2-1, 40-1 or 100,000,000-1, it's still money down the drain.

 

So sorry to piss all over your scientific explanations (I know you love that) but you're completely wide of the mark here.

[Harry - LCFC]

The existence of variables is why on each occurrence you will get a different result. Variables vary. You can't know the outcome, only assess the probability of each outcome occurring. That's where probability theory comes in. Probability theory is hundreds of years old and has been developed by some of the greatest mathematical minds to ever live. That's why you sound a bit silly dismissing it. There is nothing really debatable about it. The theory is correct.

 

And I'm saying if you knew all the variables then you could predict the outcome. If you know how fast a die is rotating and in what direction, if you know how far it has to fall, if you know how hard the surface that it's going to fall on is then you can know how it will land. This is logical to me.

 

I don't dismiss probability theory but I do say it is used due to insufficient information.

[MooseBreath]

This is ridiculous. I give up.

[ealingfox]

Bookie's odds are not a mark of probability at all, they are prices, considered and manipulated artificially by the bookies to make as much money as possible. A bookie pricing us 66/1 in no way means that they think if the season ran 66 times we'd be relegated once. Maybe in their listings there are some markets which are based on calculable probability (the roulette machine for instance), but there's no way you could suggest relegation odds have been properly calculated. You'd be talking about a series of 46 events providing one outcome, each with hundreds, probably thousands of variables within each one, and then with an endless number of variables unattached to the 46 events, it would be impossible.

[The Doctor]

I see what you mean, but to make it one bit comparable, you'd need a biased dice - and I mean a dice that will land on Leicester over Yeovil nearly every time, for example.

 

However when the difference between reality and a thought experiment is too much for the bonehead to understand, going into weighting of dice etc. would make things far too complex for them.

 

Well, if you're simplifying it like that (which is so the wrong way to think about something like this if you're gambling on it) then no, we wouldn't. Why would we? Let's assume for a second we finish top 6 this season. Why would we finish bottom 3 in the exact same circumstances?

 

How the hell is that like rolling a dice We're not rolling a dice, we're playing football. It's not that unpredictable, so probability that exists when rolling a dice barely exists at all in this circumstance. I understand probability, the thing is though that our performance this season has almost nothing to do with probability. It's not based on chance, it's based on how good the team is comparatively to others.

 

Are you taking January into account; in these 66 seasons do we buy different players in the window? Are we starting it on the first day of the season or in the summer before we've compiled a squad? Which variables are changing? And why are they changing? If they are changing, what has it got to do with this season, which is what we're betting on?

 

This is why your point isn't relevant to what we're talking about. We play the season once, we only have to avoid relegation once and if you think we're almost definitely going to avoid it once it makes no difference whether the odds are 2-1, 40-1 or 100,000,000-1, it's still money down the drain.

 

So sorry to piss all over your scientific explanations (I know you love that) but you're completely wide of the mark here.

 

Yes we only play the season once but that means sweet **** all - probability is essentially a thought experiment, where we consider every variable (and in football there are loads - injuries, suspensions, weather rearranging fixtures, refereeing decisions...) and work out the likelyhood that something will occur: So if you've got a probability that were you to run 40 simulations concurrently then in at least one of those event X would happen, then odds of 41/1 or longer for that event are good odds because they take it as being more unlikely than it actually is, so the pay-out is greater than it 'should' be.

 

I'm wide of the mark?  I'm not the one who thinks that the number of times it's run in reality have any bearing in probability theory.

[Corky]

All we know is that 3 out of 2 posters are wrong on this subject.

[Captain...]

I know we all want to show how smart we are, even though everyone is more or less saying the same thing, but are arguing because people are saying it in a different way, it doesn't detract from the point that the odds of 40/1 or 66/1 are ridiculous odds. It is nothing to do with probability or thought experiments, it's because we have the same team and same management from last season where we finished 6th and a spot kick away from Wembley.

 

Yes things can change and there are many variable, but the exact same 11 players (with the lose of Keane but some good additions and more experience) and management team that finished 6th are not going to finish in the bottom 3, not when there are teams like Yeovil, Doncaster and Barnsley in this league.

 

There is often a surprise relegation candidate, but that is usually a relegated team from the Prem or a team that has changed their manager, like we did with Sousa, or a team that has lost its best players, or signed too many new players. We are also a big enough club with enough money behind us to make changes should we have a horrendous start, like we did with Sousa. There are many variables but we have control over some of them, I know there are no guarantees in football, but us going down requires not only us to have a very very bad season, but every shit club in the league to have an excellent season. 40/1 66/1 100/1 are terrible odds, even in a league as unpredictable as this.