GingerrrFox Posted 31 July 2013 Posted 31 July 2013 You may as well burn your money. Value for us going down would be closer to 80/1 with all things considered. Great bet my arse.
Guest MattP Posted 19 August 2013 Posted 19 August 2013 66/1 now with Sportingbet if any of you Positive Pete's fancy topping up your bet.
hackneyfox Posted 19 August 2013 Posted 19 August 2013 I wouldn't take the bet as I'm certain the owners would change the manager should we be looking like getting relegated. The team is good enough for at least a top half finish, for me it is only the manger who is holding us back.
Fox92 Posted 19 August 2013 Posted 19 August 2013 I wouldn't take the bet as I'm certain the owners would change the manager should we be looking like getting relegated. The team is good enough for at least a top half finish, for me it is only the manger who is holding us back. The manager who has us in this position is holding is back?
SmithyFox12 Posted 19 August 2013 Posted 19 August 2013 Only 50/1 with Sky Bet. 12/1 to be the outright winner. 7/2 to be promoted. 80/1 for Jamie Vardy to be top goal scorer
MooseBreath Posted 19 August 2013 Posted 19 August 2013 I won't be taking it but could see why some might consider a fiver on 66-1. We've seen how thus team can capitulate. If theoretically we ran this season 66 times, would we get relegated once? That's the question you need to answer.
Kitchandro Posted 19 August 2013 Posted 19 August 2013 I won't be taking it but could see why some might consider a fiver on 66-1. We've seen how thus team can capitulate. If theoretically we ran this season 66 times, would we get relegated once? That's the question you need to answer. Well no, because the season only runs once. It's only good value if we actually get relegated, otherwise you're losing money. 66-1 I'd say is about right. It's a big price because we shouldn't get relegated, there's no evidence to suggest we're that bad. This is what bookies do. It looks an attractive price so people think ooh I'll have some of that, It's only a fiver. It's easy money for them. People will bet on anything if the odds look good.
Corky Posted 19 August 2013 Posted 19 August 2013 I wouldn't take the bet as I'm certain the owners would change the manager should we be looking like getting relegated. The team is good enough for at least a top half finish, for me it is only the manger who is holding us back. At least he's got one quality then in managing to sign decent players.
hackneyfox Posted 19 August 2013 Posted 19 August 2013 The manager who has us in this position is holding is back? When we start playing the ball around and start getting shots on target, let alone scoring, I may change my mind. I did last season and then he reverted to playing it safe.
Zingari Posted 19 August 2013 Posted 19 August 2013 Well no, because the season only runs once. It's only good value if we actually get relegated, otherwise you're losing money. 66-1 I'd say is about right. It's a big price because we shouldn't get relegated, there's no evidence to suggest we're that bad. This is what bookies do. It looks an attractive price so people think ooh I'll have some of that, It's only a fiver. It's easy money for them. People will bet on anything if the odds look good. just like Aurora's Encore at 66-1 in this years grand national
MooseBreath Posted 19 August 2013 Posted 19 August 2013 Well no, because the season only runs once. It's only good value if we actually get relegated, otherwise you're losing money. If you think it would happen once in 66 or less runs then the bet is good value. Not sure what you're disagreeing with?
Oasisedup Posted 20 August 2013 Posted 20 August 2013 If you think it would happen once in 66 or less runs then the bet is good value. Not sure what you're disagreeing with? Well if it's 66/1 and you think it'll only happen once in 66 times then it's not good value is it? In fact, if you believe that then you believe the bookies have it exactly right. Save your money.
GingerrrFox Posted 20 August 2013 Posted 20 August 2013 People in this thread are a Bookie's best friend. With the level of some teams in this division being drastically below ours, for a team that has lost none of it's vital players to go from playoff semi-finalists to relegation is ridiculous and the price of 66/1 is not value at all. Value as I said in July is closer to 80/1 (now it's even 100+) but I still wouldn't touch it with a barge pole.
Kitchandro Posted 20 August 2013 Posted 20 August 2013 If you think it would happen once in 66 or less runs then the bet is good value. Not sure what you're disagreeing with? Because the season doesn't run 66 times! It runs once, And the likelihood of us getting relegated this season is low IMO. You and me obviously don't agree with the idea of good value. To me, good value means you actually think it might happen. If you think it almost definitely won't it's a waste of a fiver. Your way of thinking about it is what the bookies want you to think.
Kitchandro Posted 20 August 2013 Posted 20 August 2013 just like Aurora's Encore at 66-1 in this years grand national Personally I'd just call that a race that slightly resembled a Grand National
The Horse's Mouth Posted 20 August 2013 Posted 20 August 2013 Only 50/1 with Sky Bet. 12/1 to be the outright winner. 7/2 to be promoted. 80/1 for Jamie Vardy to be top goal scorer I'm tempted
MooseBreath Posted 20 August 2013 Posted 20 August 2013 Because the season doesn't run 66 times! It runs once, And the likelihood of us getting relegated this season is low IMO. You and me obviously don't agree with the idea of good value. To me, good value means you actually think it might happen. If you think it almost definitely won't it's a waste of a fiver. Your way of thinking about it is what the bookies want you to think. Nah, it's just probability. Fair enough if you don't understand how probability works. I can't be bothered to explain further.
The Doctor Posted 20 August 2013 Posted 20 August 2013 Because the season doesn't run 66 times! It runs once, And the likelihood of us getting relegated this season is low IMO. You and me obviously don't agree with the idea of good value. To me, good value means you actually think it might happen. If you think it almost definitely won't it's a waste of a fiver. Your way of thinking about it is what the bookies want you to think. You aren't quite getting it - odds are a mark of probability: the shorter the odds the more likely the outcome - with 66/1 we're talking a 1 in 66 chance of it occurring - so if you were to simulate the season 66 times, would we get relegated more than once? If so the odds are nice because they're longer and so give a bigger payout than the actual probability is. It doesn't matter that the season happens once, we aren't measuring the outcome but rather the possibility of an outcome occurring. Still, anyone who bets these in earnest rather than an insurance against disaster needs their head checking.
The People's Hero Posted 23 August 2013 Posted 23 August 2013 40/1. ??? I've got far far far better matched on bet fair and already laid it off. I've now got a risk free bet which could bag me a significant amount. No possible loss
Guest MattP Posted 23 August 2013 Posted 23 August 2013 40/1. ??? I've got far far far better matched on bet fair and already laid it off. I've now got a risk free bet which could bag me a significant amount. No possible loss How did you manage to lay off considering the start to the season?
The People's Hero Posted 23 August 2013 Posted 23 August 2013 I've backed and laid several times each time backing at greater odds than I've laid. Just lay the bait on betfair and some idiot will usually take it where Leicester are concerned.
Hirsty The Blue 94 Posted 25 August 2013 Posted 25 August 2013 As big as 150/1 now if you still fancy it .
Guest MattP Posted 28 August 2013 Posted 28 August 2013 I've backed and laid several times each time backing at greater odds than I've laid. Just lay the bait on betfair and some idiot will usually take it where Leicester are concerned. Didn't think the price would have gone in your favour at any point though if you backed in the off season to be able to lay off for a profit. Bugger all liquidity on there either and only £48 has been traded on us at between 30's and 50's to go down.
Guest MattP Posted 28 August 2013 Posted 28 August 2013 I've found some more interesting odds: http://www.thesackrace.com/news/9th-july-2013/nigel-pearson-early-favourite-in-the-championship-sack-race Not a bad start then. 2/1 fave out to 33/1 after just a handful of games. http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/next-manager-to-leave-post
SmithyFox12 Posted 28 August 2013 Posted 28 August 2013 Skybet: 66/1 - to be relegated. 5/4 - top 6 finish. 1/6 - top half finish. 6/4 - top Midlands club. 25/1 - Chris Wood top goalscorer. 33/1 - Dave Nugent top goalscorer. 66/1 - Jamie Vardy top goalscorer. 10/1 - finish 1st.
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