Carl the Llama Posted 3 October 2013 Posted 3 October 2013 I see what you mean, but to make it one bit comparable, you'd need a biased dice - and I mean a dice that will land on Leicester over Yeovil nearly every time, for example. Actually they tie together well, think of it like playing an RPG: Â Say the odds of City beating Yeovil are 2 to 1, then we'll allocate 2 thirds of possible outcomes on the dice roll to City and one third to Yeovil (1-4=City and 5&6=Yeovil, for instance).
MajorDanby Posted 3 October 2013 Posted 3 October 2013 Where did all the talk of probability and its relation to betting odds come from? Betting odds have nothing to do with probability.  Odds from bookies are all based on the number of people betting and the price. They calculate the odds they can offer based what people of betting. i.e. even of the favourite were to win, they are still in the black. Its all a mathematical formula; however, with slight variations between companies.  I can't believe I am posting in this thread - I never post.  -MD (Historic forum stalker)
Guest MattP Posted 21 October 2013 Posted 21 October 2013 500/1 with BetVictor now. Â 12 games gone and we are 18 points off the relegation places. Probably need another 15 points to be safe.
Renart Posted 21 October 2013 Posted 21 October 2013 Bookie's odds are not a mark of probability at all, they are prices, considered and manipulated artificially by the bookies to make as much money as possible. A bookie pricing us 66/1 in no way means that they think if the season ran 66 times we'd be relegated once. Maybe in their listings there are some markets which are based on calculable probability (the roulette machine for instance), but there's no way you could suggest relegation odds have been properly calculated. You'd be talking about a series of 46 events providing one outcome, each with hundreds, probably thousands of variables within each one, and then with an endless number of variables unattached to the 46 events, it would be impossible. Â Â Just read through some/all/as much as I could handle without screaming (delete as appropriate) of the stuff on here and found the above post tucked away that everyone seems to have ignored in a race to prove something that I am not entirely sure that they understand themselves. This is the truth - now everybody else shut up!Â
CosbehFox Posted 21 October 2013 Posted 21 October 2013 500/1 with BetVictor now.  12 games gone and we are 18 points off the relegation places. Probably need another 15 points to be safe.  22 more points required to stay up, that's based on the past 11 seasons.  I could mention how many more wins would achieve a points total which would see us promoted (according to the last 11 seasons) but I did it publicily in February and our season went into melt down.
Renart Posted 21 October 2013 Posted 21 October 2013 22 more points required to stay up, that's based on the past 11 seasons.  I could mention how many more wins would achieve a points total which would see us promoted (according to the last 11 seasons) but I did it publicily in February and our season went into melt down.  Please don't do it!Â
XLM Posted 21 October 2013 Posted 21 October 2013 I guarantee when we reach 50 points the first thing Nigel will say in the post match interview is; "Well Ian I think we'll be safe from the drop this season".Â
Corky Posted 21 October 2013 Posted 21 October 2013 500/1 with BetVictor now. Â 12 games gone and we are 18 points off the relegation places. Probably need another 15 points to be safe. Â But our squad is worse than about 20 other teams, and we didn't win a pre-season game.
Jon25747 Posted 21 October 2013 Posted 21 October 2013 But our squad is worse than about 20 other teams, and we didn't win a pre-season game. Unless we get Nugent out of the squad, I like those odds
Turtles Head Posted 2 November 2013 Posted 2 November 2013 Thought i'd refresh this thread after today's result. OP must feel like a bit of a clown in all fairness.
MooseBreath Posted 3 November 2013 Posted 3 November 2013 Just read through some/all/as much as I could handle without screaming (delete as appropriate) of the stuff on here and found the above post tucked away that everyone seems to have ignored in a race to prove something that I am not entirely sure that they understand themselves. This is the truth - now everybody else shut up! Nobody has said bookies set their odds by probability though. If you're assessing the value of odds then you do assess through probability whether you realise it or not.
Guest Bilo Posted 3 November 2013 Posted 3 November 2013 1000/1 in most places for us to get relegated now.  Go on, ASS. That's an opportunity for you to waste invest some more money.
AnotherShitSeason Posted 3 November 2013 Author Posted 3 November 2013 Thought i'd refresh this thread after today's result. OP must feel like a bit of a clown in all fairness. Â Nope. You missed my post on page 2 where I said 'For the record there's no chance we'll get relegated. Don't waste your money.' then?
Guest shearfox Posted 3 November 2013 Posted 3 November 2013 you wasted your money there, you could have got much better odds now...
AnotherShitSeason Posted 3 November 2013 Author Posted 3 November 2013 you wasted your money there, you could have got much better odds now... Â 1000/1 is worth a quid you thinking?Â
Guest Bilo Posted 3 November 2013 Posted 3 November 2013 Go nuts. Put another £20 on it. Having worked in a betting shop, I can tell you the staff there need a good laugh from time to time.
deanolegend1989 Posted 27 December 2013 Posted 27 December 2013 100 billion to 1 penny and I still wouldnt be arsed to do it. fact is reading through this thread is almost embarresing. This siilly 66 seasons ran 1 time we'd go down is rubbish. If we started this season again & every single squad was the same, we'd NEVER be relegated..not in 10 billion seasons. We can never prove it because there are so many independant variables the main thing being, every single player in the league has an effect and every single one of them could be peaking and declined at every second of their life and its hard to see it in a majority of the circumstances. It clearly is hypothetical but we would never of been relegated because we are a good team. The odds will never have hindsight so they give odds due to the unpredictability of 22 players changing an outcome rather than a 1 v 1 sport.
pazzerfox Posted 27 December 2013 Posted 27 December 2013 I'll be having £25-50 on that and then lay us off. I can see us starting very badly this season and then Pearson will be removed and we'll improve. I'd bet everything I own on us not being in the top 6 this season for sure. Jeez, i bet you're glad you didn't bet all you own on not finishing in the top 6!!!!
Guest shearfox Posted 27 December 2013 Posted 27 December 2013 You can now get odds of 2000/1 for relegation
tartanowl Posted 28 December 2013 Posted 28 December 2013 You've probably already got more points than we will finish with!
Corky Posted 28 December 2013 Posted 28 December 2013 You've probably already got more points than we will finish with! Â Not confident of promotion then?
tartanowl Posted 28 December 2013 Posted 28 December 2013 Not confident of promotion then? I've just about given up hope of automatic.
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