Alf Bentley Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 So...any other saddos like me planning to sit up and watch the results this evening? On from 11pm on BBC1 or 2, I think, but some results due soon after 10pm, so probably on news channels before then. Anyone have any predictions? Or any comments, once the results have come in? I love these big election occasions. I got some American beers in for the US Presidential Election and have just been down "The Offie" to get some Euro beers for tonight - 7 different countries (if I drink all 7, I won't be in a good state tomorrow). Particularly looking forward to the Swedish smoked porter and the Belgian Lambic Gueuze... Will mainly be interested in the UK results, of course, but not entirely. I find these events quite educational, as I rarely get a chance to pay much attention to what's happening politically in other countries these days. I gather that the French "National Front" is expected to do well, but maybe the Dutch ultra-nationalists a bit less so. My German mate was over last weekend and is not expecting a large vote for the populist/nationalist/Eurosceptic right in Germany. Here's my UK predictions, so that I can look an idiot in the morning (% of national vote & number of seats, with 2009 results on left and my prediction on right in each case): UKIP 16.5%-> 28% / 13 -> 24 seats Con 28% -> 22% / 26 -> 19 seats Lab 16% -> 26% / 13 -> 19 seats Lib Dems 14% -> 7% / 11 -> 1 seat Greens 8.5% -> 7% / 2 -> 3 seats SNP 2% -> 2.5% / 2 -> 3 seats Plaid 1% -> 1% / 1 -> 1 seat N.Ireland: 1 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, as before For the East Midlands, I'd expect it to be 2 UKIP, 2 Tory & 1 Labour, with an outside chance of Tory & Labour being reversed if UKIP swipe Tory votes disproportionately. That might happen to some extent, I think, as I can imagine a lot of Eurosceptic Tories having stayed loyal for the local elections, but gone UKIP for the Euros. I'd expect the Lib Dems to lose their 1 local MEP.
The Horse's Mouth Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 Farage better be wearing his sexy yellow trousers, I'll be able to go for hours
LJS Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 I'll be watching this. I voted Lib Dem myself as they're the party most aligned with my own views on Europe. I'll predict the following vote share: UKIP 30 Labour 27 Conservatives 22 Green 9 Lib Dem 8 If the Lib Dems lose all their seats Clegg would be in real trouble. Ditto for Ed if Labour manage to finish third. It's almost a no-lose for the Tories unless they fail to hit 20% as they'll just claim (mostly correctly) that they're getting kicked because they're in government and a lot of UKIP voters will return to them next year. Whilst UKIP probably have to finish top of the pile (which they will) given Farage has been insisting they will for so long. The most interesting outcome would be a comfortable UKIP win. The reaction of the other parties would be interesting. As would the reaction of UKIP. If they want a long term future as a party they need to use the small platform they've started building to develop credible policies away from Europe and immigration and they also need to find credible people beyond Farage to promote them. After 2017, referendum or not, the EU fox will probably be shot. If it's held and they win their big issue is gone, if it's held and they lose there won't be another for fifty years, the result being the same for them. They have a real opportunity to build a sustainable Thatcherite party and there's certainly room for that (even though I'd strongly disagree with its policies) in this era of centrism. We could do with a strong socialist party too, and also strong green representation. There is so much of our society not represented by the current established parties. Choice is good.
lgfualol Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 I read Ukip's economic policy and it scares me. I voted Green cus they seem the best out of a bad bunch.
LJS Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 I read Ukip's economic policy and it scares me. I voted Green cus they seem the best out of a bad bunch. Farage has pretty much disowned everything which isn't about the EU and immigration up to now and sensibly so. They'll come up with new policies because they'll be under greater scrutiny next year. I think they'll fade away to the extent we won't even be talking about them come 2020, but there's definitely an opportunity for them. Some headline grabbing populist policies, clever seat targeting and some credible candidates at the GE and who knows?
Strokes Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 Voted UKIP, hoping for a big share of the vote. I'll be watching if i can stay awake past my bed time. Will it be the naff set up they had with the local elections, when jeremy vine looked like a dad on a techno dance floor?
Buce Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 Voted UKIP, In other news, the Pope is revealed to be a Catholic..
Strokes Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 I'll be watching this. I voted Lib Dem myself as they're the party most aligned with my own views on Europe. I'll predict the following vote share: UKIP 30 Labour 27 Conservatives 22 Green 9 Lib Dem 8 If the Lib Dems lose all their seats Clegg would be in real trouble. Ditto for Ed if Labour manage to finish third. It's almost a no-lose for the Tories unless they fail to hit 20% as they'll just claim (mostly correctly) that they're getting kicked because they're in government and a lot of UKIP voters will return to them next year. Whilst UKIP probably have to finish top of the pile (which they will) given Farage has been insisting they will for so long. The most interesting outcome would be a comfortable UKIP win. The reaction of the other parties would be interesting. As would the reaction of UKIP. If they want a long term future as a party they need to use the small platform they've started building to develop credible policies away from Europe and immigration and they also need to find credible people beyond Farage to promote them. After 2017, referendum or not, the EU fox will probably be shot. If it's held and they win their big issue is gone, if it's held and they lose there won't be another for fifty years, the result being the same for them. They have a real opportunity to build a sustainable Thatcherite party and there's certainly room for that (even though I'd strongly disagree with its policies) in this era of centrism. We could do with a strong socialist party too, and also strong green representation. There is so much of our society not represented by the current established parties. Choice is good. Its good that you believe there will be an EU referendum in 2017. The tories have to win an outright majority for that to happen, even then i'm not sure we will get it.
Strokes Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 In other news, the Pope is revealed to be a Catholic.. , it could be worse i could have wasted my vote and gone green
lavrentis Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 In other news, the Pope is revealed to be a Catholic.. Next you'll be telling us voting UKIP is voting for the National Front
LJS Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 Its good that you believe there will be an EU referendum in 2017. The tories have to win an outright majority for that to happen, even then i'm not sure we will get it. I don't. I forgot to say that if there isn't one in 2017 I doubt we'll get one at all. And people won't keep voting for a party who stands for something which looks unlikely ever to happen. Interestingly, it appears that UKIP's current success is nothing to do with EU membership. Eight of the last nine polls on the issue have people wanting to stay in. In the previous three years only one poll showed that inclination, so something has changed. Economic recovery, presumably. EU support always goes when when the economy is good.
Buce Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 , it could be worse i could have wasted my vote and gone green Well, why not? I wasted mine..
Buce Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 Next you'll be telling us voting UKIP is voting for the National Front I wouldn't waste my breath.
lavrentis Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 Well, why not? I wasted mine.. NAtional front not take your fancy?
Strokes Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 I don't. I forgot to say that if there isn't one in 2017 I doubt we'll get one at all. And people won't keep voting for a party who stands for something which looks unlikely ever to happen. Interestingly, it appears that UKIP's current success is nothing to do with EU membership. Eight of the last nine polls on the issue have people wanting to stay in. In the previous three years only one poll showed that inclination, so something has changed. Economic recovery, presumably. EU support always goes when when the economy is good. The last few polls i seen were quite close, being the only party that is in the out camp, they are the only option for someone who is anti europe.
Buce Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 NAtional front not take your fancy? No, I'm choosy about the company I keep. Did it take yours?
Gary Eatfood Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 I spoiled my ballot paper. I don't understand why Labour and the Tories don't just promise a referendum on the EU straight after the election. I'm fairly confident that enough sane minded people would vote to stay in Europe and then we would all be rid of Farage once and for all. UKIP are nothing but a one trick pony.
LJS Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 The last few polls i seen were quite close, being the only party that is in the out camp, they are the only option for someone who is anti europe. It's the trend that matters rather than individual polls and, for whatever reason after years in the opposite direction, more people want to stay in than want to leave. Party support isn't relevant int he context of a straight yes or no question. The most recent in/out poll I've seen had 'in' about 18 points ahead. The next few will be very interesting but as it stands that's a massive outlier. The real picture is probably a narrow majority for 'in'. Difficult to ascertain accuracy so far out from a vote which might never happen though.
Alf Bentley Posted 25 May 2014 Author Posted 25 May 2014 If the Lib Dems lose all their seats Clegg would be in real trouble. Ditto for Ed if Labour manage to finish third. It's almost a no-lose for the Tories unless they fail to hit 20% as they'll just claim (mostly correctly) that they're getting kicked because they're in government and a lot of UKIP voters will return to them next year. Whilst UKIP probably have to finish top of the pile (which they will) given Farage has been insisting they will for so long. The most interesting outcome would be a comfortable UKIP win. The reaction of the other parties would be interesting. As would the reaction of UKIP. If they want a long term future as a party they need to use the small platform they've started building to develop credible policies away from Europe and immigration and they also need to find credible people beyond Farage to promote them. After 2017, referendum or not, the EU fox will probably be shot. If it's held and they win their big issue is gone, if it's held and they lose there won't be another for fifty years, the result being the same for them. They have a real opportunity to build a sustainable Thatcherite party and there's certainly room for that (even though I'd strongly disagree with its policies) in this era of centrism. We could do with a strong socialist party too, and also strong green representation. There is so much of our society not represented by the current established parties. Choice is good. Agree with almost all of this, though I'd be amazed if either Clegg or Miliband got the push before the general election. If the Lib Dems do anywhere near as badly as expected next year, though, I'd have thought that Clegg will get the bullet (unless a continuation of the current coalition was on the cards - if Labour was the biggest party in a hung parliament, they'd insist on Clegg's head on a plate, I should think). For Miliband, too, I reckon the time that the knives would be out would be if Labour isn't at least the biggest party after 2015. If UKIP perform at the top end of expectations (say 30%+) and the Tories are in the low 20s, there'll be a lot of mayhem within the Tory Party, too. UKIP will certainly need to be credible on issues like the economy, tax and public services by 2015 or they'll flop. They probably need 1 or 2 other popular issues to raise in the meantime, too, rather than just banging on about immigration and Europe (they've already won over the people likely to be convinced by that). They do have 1 or 2 other decent speakers apart from Farage, mind: e.g. that bald scouse bloke and the woman who ran in the Eastleigh byelection....just need to keep their many nutters out of sight/hearing! Re. your last comment, I have to get on my PR hobby horse again here. With a more proportional electoral system, there would be some representation for socialists, greens, UKIPers etc. But not only does the current system keep the existing main parties in place, it even stifles proper debate within them - they all know that they have to please swing voters in marginal seats, who become almost the only ones that matter. Will be interesting to hear a bit about what's happening politically in other European countries, too, as we hear so little usually, unless we have the time to go in search of info, which I don't. Time to get in front of the box with my Swedish smoked porter!
lgfualol Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 France have voted 25% for a nazi party, England maybe 30% for an xenophobic mild racism party. Progress. Not.
ScouseFox Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 france are fúcked. i think. that's about all i know of politics, that marine le pen is 99% racist and now france are seemingly all voting for her. her dad denied the holocaust too. good stuff.
johnny the fox Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 Some of these clowns make me laugh.. Lib Dem Danny Alexander would say rawks drift was a good position to be in... on these results...what a fookin joke..why can't they just speak the truth, instead of trying to insult us?
lgfualol Posted 25 May 2014 Posted 25 May 2014 france are fúcked. i think. that's about all i know of politics, that marine le pen is 99% racist and now france are seemingly all voting for her. her dad denied the holocaust too. good stuff. Disgusting. Her and her father are basically nazis. She says she'll be in contact with farage, just what we need. This bothers me so much.
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