Stuliasz Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 Wes Morgan Wins First Player of the Month lcfcratings.wordpress.com After winning two man of the match awards during August, Wes Morgan was unsurprisingly the overall best player in Leicester City's first month back in the Premier League. After doubts were raised by some in the summer as to whether the centre-back could handle the step up, man of the match displays against Everton and Arsenal coupled with a strong performance at Chelsea left City fans in no doubt that Wes would continue to be a crucial player for the Foxes this season. While Morgan won the award by a fair margin, there were also strong performances from Andy King and Liam Moore, although they were both let down a little by the ratings they received in the League Cup defeat at home to Shrewsbury Town. Leo Ulloa was the best of the new signings in 5th, although he did get significantly more game time than any of the other debutants. Anthony Knockaert finished bottom of the player ratings table for August, finishing behind James Pearson and Gary Taylor-Fletcher who rounded off the bottom three. While Pearson and a number of others finished with lower ratings, Knockaert's low ratings carried more weight by virtue of his additional playing time over the course of the month. Leicester's performance against Arsenal was rated as their best, while Lee Mason and his team of officials were voted significantly higher than any others during August. In a month where City met three Champions League contenders, it was League Two Shrewsbury Town who won the vote as the best opposition City faced. All of the awards and results are below, feel free to comment on FoxesTalk! Player of the Month : Wes Morgan Wes Morgan : 8.06 | 289 min Andy King : 7.32 | 326 min Liam Moore : 7.16 | 386 min Kasper Schmeichel : 7.18 | 289 min Leonardo Ulloa : 7.25 | 247 min Dean Hammond : 7.07 | 229 min Jeff Schlupp : 6.57 | 224 min Riyad Mahrez : 6.48 | 306 min Danny Drinkwater : 6.78 | 55 min Jamie Vardy : 7.18 | 23 min Marc Albrighton : 6.57 | 55 min Paul Konchesky : 6.36 | 386 min Ritchie de Laet : 6.35 | 289 min David Nugent : 6.22 | 326 min Ben Hamer : 5.02 | 97 min Ryan Watson : 3.98 | 60 min Michael Cain : 3.92 | 60 min Marcin Wasilewski : 4.65 | 97 min Chris Wood : 4.91 | 123 min Gary Taylor-Fletcher : 4.70 | 118 min James Pearson : 3.59 | 97 min Anthony Knockaert : 4.62 | 164 min Original ratings shown. Positions adjusted based on weighted average (not shown) using minutes played. See FAQ for details of how weighted ratings are calculated. Man of the Match Awards Everton (H) : Wes Morgan Chelsea (A) : Kasper Schmeichel Shrewsbury Town (H) : Liam Moore Arsenal (H) : Wes Morgan Individual Performance of the Month : Wes Morgan v Everton (H) Wes Morgan v Everton (H) : 8.40 Wes Morgan v Arsenal (H) : 8.39 Leonardo Ulloa v Arsenal (H) : 8.24 Liam Moore v Everton (H) : 8.17 Liam Moore v Arsenal (H) : 8.03 Team Performance of the Month : Arsenal (H) Leicester City 1-1 Arsenal (Premier League) : 7.43 Leicester City 2-2 Everton (Premier League) : 6.98 Chelsea 2-0 Leicester City (Premier League) : 6.79 Leicester City 0-1 Shrewsbury Town (League Cup) : 4.34 Opposition Performance of the Month : Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town (H) : 7.45 Chelsea (A) : 7.30 Everton (H) : 6.73 Arsenal (H) : 6.00 Referee of the Month : Lee Mason - Chelsea (A) Lee Mason - Chelsea (A) : 7.31 Anthony Taylor - Arsenal (H) : 6.00 Simon Hooper - Shrewsbury Town (H) : 5.62 Mike Jones - Everton (H) : 5.10 Manager Confidence : (-0.58%) 99.51% to 98.93% Everton (H) : 99.51% (-0.33%) Chelsea (A) : 99.17% (-13.21%) Shrewsbury Town (H) : 85.96% (+12.97%) Arsenal (H) : 98.93% As requested by a number of voters, next month will also include the opportunity to rate the manager's performance each match, in addition to the existing manager confidence question.
Guest Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 thanks. Not convinced on the idea of time weighting. When we mark them we take that into account.
sdb Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 thanks. Not convinced on the idea of time weighting. When we mark them we take that into account. Yeah i'd agree with that. Really interesting stuff though, like it a lot.
Stuliasz Posted 7 September 2014 Author Posted 7 September 2014 thanks. Not convinced on the idea of time weighting. When we mark them we take that into account. Don't think it's something I've just done on a whim, a fair bit of thought has gone into it. I'm no statistics expert, and it is a tough one which I experimented with quite a bit after the Werder Bremen game. The conclusion I came do was that there has to be an element of it or it would end in unfair man of the match / player of the month awards. For example, say there's 4 games in a month and Wes Morgan gets an 8.00 in all of them after playing the full game in each. Now say Jamie Vardy comes on for the last 30 minutes in one game and gets an 8.01, he wins player of the month. Similar scenario on a match-by-match basis, I think a player who plays for longer deserves a better shot at the award.
Stadt Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 The manager approval v Shrewsbury? Got to be a joke surely?
Soar Fox Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 Paul Konchesky plays 331 more minutes than Albrighton yet is below him player of the month awards? Can't hardly remember Albrighton do anything in either of the games he came on in.
Heart-Shaped Fox Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 Very good this rating system is. Well done. King in second doesnt surprise me despite not winning a player of match award. Been extremely solid and is good to see some other fans are you this time now noticing this
TheUltimateWinner Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 Nuge & Konch should be way way higher.
MooseBreath Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 If there's not an app for this already then you should get on it. If you could get fans all over the country voting on their teams and then do some smart data presentation, comparisons and awards etc then it could be a sensation. I'm not sure I agree with the weighting system though. I think if Vardy comes on and gets an 8.01 then he deserves his 8.01. You could rule him out of MOTM/POTM awards by imposing a qualification criteria based on a player meeting a minimum percentage of minutes played.
lgfualol Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 Jamie Vardy is above Nugent, De Laet and Konch Even Wood has done more than Vardy and is nearly bottom
foxoffderby Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 I've been mulling over who I would have on the bench for the Stoke game. Knocky has to stand down Powell in. Thanks OP great bit of info.
Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 The manager approval v Shrewsbury? Got to be a joke surely? I was thinking that - we lost in the league cup on the back of 2 very good performances against Everton and Chelsea, then it turns out 1 in 7 want Pearson gone? You people make me sick
Stuliasz Posted 7 September 2014 Author Posted 7 September 2014 Jamie Vardy is above Nugent, De Laet and Konch Even Wood has done more than Vardy and is nearly bottom Paul Konchesky plays 331 more minutes than Albrighton yet is below him player of the month awards? Can't hardly remember Albrighton do anything in either of the games he came on in. It's exactly these points which make me feel like there has to be weighting of some kind based on minutes. If there was no weighting, the results would be: Wes Morgan : 8.06 Andy King : 7.32 Leonardo Ulloa : 7.25 Kasper Schmeichel : 7.18 Jamie Vardy : 7.18 Liam Moore : 7.16 Dean Hammond : 7.07 Danny Drinkwater : 6.78 Marc Albrighton : 6.57 Jeff Schlupp : 6.57 Riyad Mahrez : 6.48 Paul Konchesky : 6.36 Ritchie de Laet : 6.35 David Nugent : 6.22 Ben Hamer : 5.02 Chris Wood : 4.91 Gary Taylor-Fletcher : 4.70 Marcin Wasilewski : 4.65 Anthony Knockaert : 4.62 Ryan Watson : 3.98 Michael Cain : 3.92 James Pearson : 3.59 This would put Vardy in 5th above Moore, Drinkwater and Albrighton in 8th/9th above Schlupp, Mahrez and Konchesky, even more ludicrous than the issues you have pointed out. The only other alternative is something along the lines that MooseBreath suggested and have a minimum threshold, with those above it in one list and those below in another and is probably something I'll look at for next month. All the feedback is appreciated and any advice on how it can be improved statistically is definitely welcome. I'm still ironing out the kinks in this but it's good to see that people are finding it makes interesting reading.
Guest ttfn Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 Are you weighting game by game or over the season? Game by game I don't think works. Normally a sub would have to have score, assist or have a big part to play in changing the course of a game for me to rate them more than a 7 - that's because that's what I rate them as having contributed within the context of a match. Coming on and scoring an important late goal might see them get an 8 - but if they're only on for 10 minutes and Drinkwater bosses the game for 90 minutes and gets a 9 there's a fair chance they'd get rated higher in your system which I'm not sure works. Over a season though I think it could be interesting. Clearly the rating you showed above with Vardy in 5th is a nonsense in terms of Vardy's contribution to the team and as such on a monthly basis I think it might be interesting to see one absolute listing and one with a weighted rating.
veezeeblue Posted 7 September 2014 Posted 7 September 2014 so many players playing well so few who need questioning this is sound about the listing just feel konch should have earned a few better reviews but so hard to criticize anyone - except for knocky who has yet to show up
Bryn Posted 8 September 2014 Posted 8 September 2014 It's statistical analysis like, there's no way to make it a perfect representation of what's happened, you need more data to get it as close as possible. Over the course of the season the OP's method will prove the most accurate, it shouldn't be changed at all.
Guest Posted 8 September 2014 Posted 8 September 2014 Don't think it's something I've just done on a whim, a fair bit of thought has gone into it. I'm no statistics expert, and it is a tough one which I experimented with quite a bit after the Werder Bremen game. The conclusion I came do was that there has to be an element of it or it would end in unfair man of the match / player of the month awards. For example, say there's 4 games in a month and Wes Morgan gets an 8.00 in all of them after playing the full game in each. Now say Jamie Vardy comes on for the last 30 minutes in one game and gets an 8.01, he wins player of the month. Similar scenario on a match-by-match basis, I think a player who plays for longer deserves a better shot at the award. I don't think you understand statistics. Your weighting is arbitrary. We usually substitute attackers because of our style of play; therefore you penalise Ulloa (or any other striker) who is substituted with 10 or 15 mins to go in comparison with a central defender (we very rarely sub CBs) yet our awarded mark will not make the adjustment. Your idea of penalising oncoming subs is good but you'll find that in EVERY U.S. sport (and they are the kings of stats) adjustments like yours are not made. The way a 1 time player is eliminated is by only allowing rankings over a certain no. of minutes or games played - depending on the situation. Therefore in your example of a player only playing once for 30 mins (though clearly they must have been fantastic during that 30 mins) they would not be included in the overall ranking as they hadn't reached the minimal mins/games required for comparison.
Captain... Posted 8 September 2014 Posted 8 September 2014 You could just give those players that didn't play a rating of 0, I would also let the fans decide for the subs on an individual match basis, if a Vardy comes on in the last 10 minutes scores twice and wins the game and he gets a 9 then he deserves that because he came on and won the game, likewise if someone comes on and costs us the game and gets a 4, they deserve that and shouldn't have their ratings adjusted for the game again as the fans take it into account when rating them. The problem would be that cups games would skew the results Konchesky would pick up more points despite playing poorly against Shrewsbury than RDL despite not playing. An alternative is that you could translate the ratings into points, so you take their rating out of 10 - 5 points, so a 10 = 5 points, 7.5 = 2.5 points and a 5 = 0 a 3 = -2 then award a +1 for MOTM. If you didn't play you get 0. Anyone getting less than 5 probably didn't deserve their place on the pitch and it should negatively affect their score when being compared against someone who didn't play. So when looking at the player of the month doing it that way you see that Wood ranks higher than Vardy, which is fair and Albrighton and Drinkwater drop down having not played as many games as others: Wes Morgan: 11.17 Liam Moore : 9.66 Kasper Schmeichel: 7.55 Andy King: 7.49 Leonardo Ulloa: 6.8 Dean Hammond: 6.23 Riyad Mahrez: 5.77 Paul Konchesky: 5.45 Jeff Schlupp: 4.97 Ritchie de Laet: 4.03 Danny Drinkwater: 3.79 David Nugent: 3.74 Marc Albrighton: 3.12 Chris Wood: 2.84 Jamie Vardy: 2.18 Gary Taylor-Fletcher: 0.54 Ben Hamer: 0.02 Anthony Knockaert: -0.3 Marcin Wasilewski: -0.35 Ryan Watson: -1.02 Michael Cain: -1.08 James Pearson: -1.41 Kasper has also been bumped up by a MOTM performance against Chelsea. My working: EVE CHE SHR ARS MOTM TOT Andy King 3.02 2.62 -0.56 2.41 0 7.49 Anthony Knockaert 1.11 0 -1.41 0 0 -0.3 Ben Hamer 0.02 0 0 0 0 0.02 Chris Wood 1.98 0 -0.59 1.45 0 2.84 Danny Drinkwater 1.64 2.15 0 0 0 3.79 David Nugent 1.41 0.67 -0.58 2.24 0 3.74 Dean Hammond 1.89 2.46 0 1.88 0 6.23 Gary Taylor-Fletcher 0 1.16 -0.62 0 0 0.54 James Pearson 0 0 -1.41 0 0 -1.41 Jamie Vardy 0 0 0 2.18 0 2.18 Jeff Schlupp 1.72 1.52 -0.6 2.33 0 4.97 Kasper Schmeichel 1.6 2.85 0 2.1 1 7.55 Leonardo Ulloa 2.38 1.18 0 3.24 0 6.8 Liam Moore 3.17 2.39 0.07 3.03 1 9.66 Marc Albrighton 0 1.28 0 1.84 0 3.12 Marcin Wasilewski 0 0 -0.35 0 0 -0.35 Michael Cain 0 0 -1.08 0 0 -1.08 Paul Konchesky 1.65 1.86 -0.48 2.42 0 5.45 Ritchie de Laet 0.57 1.19 0 2.27 0 4.03 Riyad Mahrez 2.11 1.83 -0.63 2.46 0 5.77 Ryan Watson 0 0 -1.02 0 0 -1.02 Wes Morgan 3.4 2.38 0 3.39 2 11.17
Stuliasz Posted 8 September 2014 Author Posted 8 September 2014 Thanks for all the feedback and suggestions which I'll have a look at when I get time. I'm keeping all of the unedited ratings in case I change the system anyway so any new system can be based on the ratings as originally voted. As I said before, I'm not a statistics person at all so I'm open to ideas from anyone who knows better than me! Although I would like to keep it relatively straightforward so that it's easy to manage at my end, and the results are easy to visualise. Just out of interest, what % of a match do people think would make you eligible for a man of the match award?
Captain... Posted 8 September 2014 Posted 8 September 2014 Thanks for all the feedback and suggestions which I'll have a look at when I get time. I'm keeping all of the unedited ratings in case I change the system anyway so any new system can be based on the ratings as originally voted. As I said before, I'm not a statistics person at all so I'm open to ideas from anyone who knows better than me! Although I would like to keep it relatively straightforward so that it's easy to manage at my end, and the results are easy to visualise. Just out of interest, what % of a match do people think would make you eligible for a man of the match award? I think anyone can be man of the match, if we play shite for 80 minutes, bring on Mahrez for the last 10 minutes, he changes the game scoring twice and does more in 10 minutes than anyone else did for the 90, then he is man of the match. I think you just trust the people giving the ratings to make that decision taking all factors into account, as long as you have an N/A option for players that aren't on the pitch long enough to give a valid rating. This will obviously be subjective and some people will rate subs that were on 5 minutes others won't, but if you give the N/A option so as not to skew the figures then it should work.
Stuliasz Posted 8 September 2014 Author Posted 8 September 2014 Paul Konchesky plays 331 more minutes than Albrighton yet is below him player of the month awards? Can't hardly remember Albrighton do anything in either of the games he came on in. Nuge & Konch should be way way higher. Jamie Vardy is above Nugent, De Laet and Konch Even Wood has done more than Vardy and is nearly bottom Forgot to mention in reply to these comments...the Shrewsbury game brought down the rating of all the first teamers who played quite considerably as the ratings were significantly lower than those given in other games. Konch has had three solid games in the league but he was given a 4.52 against Shrewsbury. Likewise the subs King, Nugent and Schlupp only received ratings around 4.4. If I hadn't weighted their rating based on minutes played, they would be even lower in the list.
foxaholic Posted 14 September 2014 Posted 14 September 2014 I was thinking that - we lost in the league cup on the back of 2 very good performances against Everton and Chelsea, then it turns out 1 in 7 want Pearson gone? You people make me sick He was responsible for teamselection and most fans like a cuprun and we havea good record in it and even a half decent team wouldhave won.Lets face it outside the top 6 no side can field 9 reserves and guarantee winning ieMan U and Villa
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