The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[Thracian]

are there  people who actually get paid for writing such shight?  what a time to be alive..

 

 

 

There's worse than that. It's a remorselessly sinister world out there. Yet people close their eyes to anything they don't want to acknowledge. A form of self-protection I suppose.  

[Len Finsbury]

For those on the 'leave' side that go out of their way to insist that this referendum isn't about immigration, I'd be interested in whether they would prefer 1. Leave the EU and 'benefit' from 'getting our country back' economically but maintaining open borders or 2. Closed borders but we remain in the EU and the economic effect that it entails.

 

Many of the leavers that are being vocal about their decision have tried their damnedest to avoid saying they don't want any more immigrants, spouting 'guesstimated' economic benefits as the major driver. To assume that we will be better off financially if we do leave is too much 'hit and hope' for me with very little basis.

 

While Leavers will cite expert opinions as to why we will be better off, they seem quite happy to ignore expert opinions from those that say otherwise.

 

My advice to anyone that is still unsure, is to vote stay for the time being. There will always be the opportunity to have another referendum in the future should things change, but once the divorce from the EU goes through, we will not be allowed back in again with the same privileges as we have now. Whatever you do, don't base your decision on immigration alone but disguise it as an economic one.

[davieG]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36526298

 

 

Interesting idea - the return to the era of the "City States"?

 

Probably won't happen, but not as out of the question as some might think, maybe.

 

For better or worse, our country is going to be in flux in lots of ways, regardless of the result. But particularly if there's a Leave vote.

 

It maybe fanciful but it reinforces my view that there are large pockets of people across Europe that don't even want to be part of their 'own' country. That being the case what chance is there of a continuing harmonious EC.

[Bettsj2]

For those on the 'leave' side that go out of their way to insist that this referendum isn't about immigration, I'd be interested in whether they would prefer 1. Leave the EU and 'benefit' from 'getting our country back' economically but maintaining open borders or 2. Closed borders but we remain in the EU and the economic effect that it entails.

Many of the leavers that are being vocal about their decision have tried their damnedest to avoid saying they don't want any more immigrants, spouting 'guesstimated' economic benefits as the major driver. To assume that we will be better off financially if we do leave is too much 'hit and hope' for me with very little basis.

While Leavers will cite expert opinions as to why we will be better off, they seem quite happy to ignore expert opinions from those that say otherwise.

My advice to anyone that is still unsure, is to vote stay for the time being. There will always be the opportunity to have another referendum in the future should things change, but once the divorce from the EU goes through, we will not be allowed back in again with the same privileges as we have now. Whatever you do, don't base your decision on immigration alone but disguise it as an economic one.

Would definitely go for leaving the EU but maintaining free movement.

Wouldn't be paying the membership fees but still get the economic benefit of migration.

Boom.

[davieG]

For those on the 'leave' side that go out of their way to insist that this referendum isn't about immigration, I'd be interested in whether they would prefer 1. Leave the EU and 'benefit' from 'getting our country back' economically but maintaining open borders or 2. Closed borders but we remain in the EU and the economic effect that it entails.

 

Many of the leavers that are being vocal about their decision have tried their damnedest to avoid saying they don't want any more immigrants, spouting 'guesstimated' economic benefits as the major driver. To assume that we will be better off financially if we do leave is too much 'hit and hope' for me with very little basis.

 

While Leavers will cite expert opinions as to why we will be better off, they seem quite happy to ignore expert opinions from those that say otherwise.

 

My advice to anyone that is still unsure, is to vote stay for the time being. There will always be the opportunity to have another referendum in the future should things change, but once the divorce from the EU goes through, we will not be allowed back in again with the same privileges as we have now. Whatever you do, don't base your decision on immigration alone but disguise it as an economic one.

I was under the impression that the vast majority of leavers wanted a more controlled immigration not a blanket no immigration.

[Len Finsbury]

I was under the impression that the vast majority of leavers wanted a more controlled immigration not a blanket no immigration.

 

I'm talking more about free movement from the EU rather than no immigration. Even if we left the EU, we'd still have immigration issues to contend with from non EU countries and illegals.

[Alf Bentley]

It maybe fanciful but it reinforces my view that there are large pockets of people across Europe that don't even want to be part of their 'own' country. That being the case what chance is there of a continuing harmonious EC.

 

 

Which is less likely, a harmonious EU or a harmonious UK? That's an alternative question. Neither looks particularly promising. To me, the prospects of the UK facing various disasters look greater than those for the EU, but neither looks a bed of roses.

 

There's certainly a lot of fragmentation these days, by nation, region, class, race, age etc.

 

I'd like to see the proper application of the "subsidiarity principle": power at the lowest level possible. Not just nationalism, devolving power to local/regional councils or institutions, where possible, then to national level, where appropriate (e.g. minimum health & education standards, national economic development, main legal system) and some stuff at European or global level where essential (environment, security, trade frameworks, research, minimum social standards etc.)

[Guest MattP]

My advice to anyone that is still unsure, is to vote stay for the time being. There will always be the opportunity to have another referendum in the future should things change, but once the divorce from the EU goes through, we will not be allowed back in again with the same privileges as we have now. Whatever you do, don't base your decision on immigration alone but disguise it as an economic one.

 

Leaving aside what I'd class as privliedges, no one realy knows what the fall out would be from us voting to leave, the Irish were being told by some the Lisbon treaty was a one time offer and when they voted "no" it came back the year after amended, given how close this has got I'd be absolutely amazed if we had another referendum anytime soon, politicians don't generally give these out unless they know what the result is, they never expected it to get this close and I doubt we'll be getting another chance.

 

(Ironically as I'm about to say below, the only chance of a referendum next time around might have to come from the left)

 

Don't know if anyone watched the live show on Sky News with an audience last night but Jeremy Corbyn finally put the long awaited case for Lexit across, very good as well he was - one thing that struck me was when he said "We should stay in for the time being to see if we can change it" - not the words of a man fully committed for any serious period of time.

 

Maybe he's actually the political genius here instead of Boris, waits until 2019 Euro elections, sees the vote shift to the hard/extreme right and then campaigns for a referendum in his 2020 manifesto as he can't implement his policies while inside of it, sweeps up still annoyed Tories and Kippers and usurps Boris to waltz into Number 10.

[johnny the fox]

I reckon Labour is well aware that a lot of its core vote will support Leave on Thursday, Johnny. I'd guess that's partly why the Lab Remain campaign has been so low-profile. They know they lost a lot of their Scottish core vote after joining the Tories in opposing Scottish independence.

 

Labour seems to be starting to address the issue of high immigration contributing to low pay. Not before time, some might say - and certainly too late to stop lots of Lab voters supporting Brexit. But it might offer a few clues about changes in Lab policies after the referendum: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36570383

- Corbyn: "If you actually deliberately lower living standards and increase poverty in certain countries in south-east and eastern Europe then you're bound to have a flow of people looking for somewhere else to go. Surely the issue is an anti-austerity, a growth package all across Europe rather than this"

- McDonnell: Labour will "look again at the free movement of labour"

- Watson: Labour will "make the case to revise EU laws which enable citizens of member states to live and work anywhere in the EU".

They've also said that they'd reinstate the extra funds for public services/social integration given to councils accepting migrants - funds cut by the Tory Govt. After all, not many migrants head for Henley, Surrey, Witney or Knutsford, where Boris, Gove, Dave & Georgie Boy are MPs.   

 

We'll have to remember Innovindil's story about Argos cutting pay from £11/hr to £7/hr if employers start complaining about the higher "living wage" being unaffordable. That higher minimum wage is one bit of good news for your brothers, Innovindil, even if the Govt originally intended it to be offset by tax credit cuts (now cancelled). However, if the public finances get tricky post-Brexit, I wonder if they'll say that it's unaffordable for employers and/or the public purse? They certainly did exactly that with their election promise to limit funding of care for the elderly to £72k per person....completely reneged on it as "unaffordable" once they'd used it to get election votes from the elderly.

 

Anyone seen any promises from Boris, Nigel, Gove or Leave re. low pay? If not, are they just scapegoating immigrants to win votes? 

Here's Paul Mason, describing Brexit as a "fake revolt", conning the justifiably angry working class so as to benefit the elite: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/20/brexit-fake-revolt-eu-working-class-culture-hijacked-help-elite

maybe .. but I fear it is a day late and a dollar short, I expect in aftermath of the result there will be a realignment in british politics... it will dawn on sections of each party that business as usual is not an option...  It was interesting to hear michael howard on newsnight .. he said he would not be against having a further referendum after we vote out , renegotiate with the EU get the deal we want and put  it to the people again.... i'm not for that but it would be an option..

[Guest MattP]

maybe .. but I fear it is a day late and a dollar short, I expect in aftermath of the result there will be a realignment in british politics... it will dawn on sections of each party that business as usual is not an option...  It was interesting to hear michael howard on newsnight .. he said he would not be against having a further referendum after we vote out , renegotiate with the EU get the deal we want and put  it to the people again.... i'm not for that but it would be an option..

 

It's a good idea really, not something I'd support but the logic I can't fault. Given how much Europe is begging us to stay it's hard to imagine they wouldn't try to keep us, it's a better option for all concerned than punishing everyone just to make sure no one else leaves.

 

What is certain is that a vote to remain and giving these people the thumbs up is certainly no way to achieve reform, they will just press ahead with what they see as the end game, if we won't leave now, it's hard to imagine any population doing so under any circumstances.

[Alf Bentley]

maybe .. but I fear it is a day late and a dollar short, I expect in aftermath of the result there will be a realignment in british politics... it will dawn on sections of each party that business as usual is not an option...  It was interesting to hear michael howard on newsnight .. he said he would not be against having a further referendum after we vote out , renegotiate with the EU get the deal we want and put  it to the people again.... i'm not for that but it would be an option..

 

 

Tend to agree with your first point.

 

Yes, Howard's suggestion that the EU might make a further offer after a Brexit vote that could go to a second referendum was interesting. Though he didn't favour the UK taking the initiative on this. Can't see it happening, to be honest. Even if the EU did make another offer (which would cause them all sorts of problems), there'd be uproar on the Brexit side if a Leave vote was not respected and another referendum was called.

 

In other news, I've just jumped in a tardis and recovered footage of you after the vote, Johnny (striking resemblance to your photo): 

 

[Guest MattP]

Beckham's for Remain apparently - that's argument over surely?

 

Thought this was a joke, just been on the news.

 

Any chance you can whack him up on the big debate tonight as part of the remain campaign pretty please?

[Guest]

Are we there yet?

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Thought this was a joke, just been on the news.

Any chance you can whack him up on the big debate tonight as part of the remain campaign pretty please?

It's not a bad person to have on your side, given how fickle and simplistic some can be. Mr Cobra beer also made a passionate case for remaining on the Beeb and I see ex bosses of supermarkets have put together a letter today as well - so the establishment machine is out in force now if you will!

One thing I am suprised at is how little Ruth Davidson has been used in this debate, she's clearly got something about her - but this does show how many cards the Remain camp have to play and could point to a mistake from Leave tonight in having the same line up, because as well as the 3 did on the ITV debate there is a danger that it will feel there's nothing new / fresh in their message.

[Thracian]

Really? come on. Possible but highly unlikely surely, screams of scare tactics

 

 

Ummmmmm, d'you reckon? . 

 

Why not key in Gatestone Institute and read about "Britain's Islamic Emirates Project". Or shall I save you the trouble? http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/2278/britain-islamic-emirates-project

 

Then relate that to London - or any other city mentioned. .

[Guest MattP]

It's not a bad person to have on your side, given how fickle and simplistic some can be. Mr Cobra beer also made a passionate case for remaining on the Beeb and I see ex bosses of supermarkets have put together a letter today as well - so the establishment machine is out in force now if you will!

One thing I am suprised at is how little Ruth Davidson has been used in this debate, she's clearly got something about her - but this does show how many cards the Remain camp have to play and could point to a mistake from Leave tonight in having the same line up, because as well as the 3 did on the ITV debate there is a danger that it will feel there's nothing new / fresh in their message.

 

I think staying with the same three is the right decision tonight, they performed so well last time it resulted in a big swing to leave so would be daft not to go with them again.

 

The remain side is very mixed tonight, Khan will cut through into areas some can't reach and Ruth is a solid pick, I think she sees herself as a possible Tory leader in the future so it would be bonkers to get to public about wanting to remain given how toxic a position will be among Tory voters, she is bloody good though.

 

Hopefully Francis O'Grady can play the Eddie Izzard role, she's been desperate whenever I've seen her in the past.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Ummmmmm, d'you reckon? . 

 

Why not key in Gatestone Institute and read about "Britain's Islamic Emirates Project". Or shall I save you the trouble? http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/2278/britain-islamic-emirates-project

 

Then relate that to London - or any other city mentioned. .

Isn't that website strongly backed by pro Isreal supporters? I'm not sure if I'd fully trust the reporting balance - plus the other important thing to remember is that anyone can have a desire to do something, but you need significant backing both financially and pubically to get anywhere, so it's not going to happen.

[Nick]

In case it helps, here's a Professor of European Law talking about what would happen in the event of Brexit. It lasts 24 minutes, but is well worth it as a counterweight to all the biased bullshit from both campaigns. He's pro-Remain, so some people will dismiss him as biased - but he's arguing from a position of professional knowledge (and would presumably be discredited professionally if he was talking bollocks):

 

 

As a counter-balance, here's the article from the Guardian Economics Editor arguing in favour of Brexit from a Left perspective, due to the current dysfunctionality of the Eurozone. This is very much the stance that had me considering a Leave vote, as it's quite clear that the Eurozone is struggling economically and has voluntarily got itself into an economic policy straitjacket that could lead somewhere very bad. I've come to the conclusion, though, that the EU/Eurozone could potentially escape that doom through reform.....whereas Brexit probably takes us somewhere very bad with a lot less hope of escape:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/20/brexit-best-answer-to-dying-eurozone-eu-undemocratic-elite

 

Nothing much about immigration in either of these contributions, but I know others will have their say about that.

 

 

[Guest MattP]

 

Is the applause for Michael Dougan or the Guardian economics editor?

[Nick]

Is the applause for Michael Dougan or the Guardian economics editor?

 

 

Dougan

[Samilktray]

If David Beckham says remain, I'm remain.

[bovril]

Was thinking the same thing. Johhny Marr also for remain. I'm not going to argue with Beckham and Marr. 

[johnny the fox]

If David Beckham says remain, I'm remain.

the bloke hasn't put a decent cross in the box for many years...beware! 

[Nick]

Was thinking the same thing. Johhny Marr also for remain. I'm not going to argue with Beckham and Marr. 

 

 

I've come to realise over the past few years that all I actually need to know is What Michael Gove is doing and engage in exactly the opposite.

[bovril]

the bloke hasn't put a decent cross in the box for many years...beware!