The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[Alf Bentley]

Trade is mutually beneficial or it wouldn't occur. They just benefit more in absolute value from being in the single market than we do. The question is do we continue being apart of a single regulatory area which in my view has become more burdensome to our whole economy than the 'cost' of tarrifs?

We could even go for unilateral free trade and lobby individual countries or groups to remove the tariff barriers against us under WTO rules.

 

 

Yes, trade is mutually beneficial - and so UK-EU trade would continue post-Brexit, I'm sure. But on what terms? Maybe the cost/burden of tariffs would be offset by a lower level of regulation, but maybe it wouldn't. Maybe UK traders would become less competitive in EU markets, Also, what sort of deregulation would it be? More "flexible" employment conditions (i.e. longer hours, lower pay, hazardous working conditions) or less environmental protection, maybe? I can't imagine the EU would accept goods or services produced to a lower standard.

 

Yes, we could lobby individual countries or groups. But it's not as if we could quickly and easily shift all trade from the EU to other countries; it would take time to establish good deals both with other nations and between traders - and it might not be possible to source some items outside the EU. I don't think other EU countries would be allowed to do separate bilateral deals with us, would they? Plus certain other nations/groups (USA, China, Japan, even Russia in certain sectors) would be in a stronger negotiating position than us. Every other nation/group would be pushing its self-interest as much as we would.

 

I'm not sure what you mean by "absolute value" when you say that the EU "benefits more in absolute value...than we do"? Are you referring to the UK being a net contributor, while some other countries are net recipients? If so, that's true - and based on the fact that the UK is one of the richer countries. Similarly, different parts of the UK are net contributors or recipients depending on wealth, likewise people on high/low incomes re. tax/benefits/public services. There are certainly other issues, notably the proportion of funds that go to farming, which is still too high and benefits others more than us, but improvements are happening - too slowly, but they're happening. Otherwise, I don't know how you measure "absolute value"? How do you measure the extra trade income accrued from trading in the EU?

[Innovindil]

You're aware that a reasonable economy is good for more than just fatcats, right? I mean, it's in your interest as well.

Also, as far as I'm aware, there isn't a different minimum wage purely for Polish people who come over to work in Argos.

They're no cheaper than you are, they're apparently just less likely to bitch and quit over a zero hour contract which is enabled through UK law.

But yknow.

(edit: I'm with you on zero hour contracts btw, but they're our government's fault, not the mainland's)

The Polish workers haven't seen a semi-skilled job go from £11-13/hr to £7/hr due to being able to get cheap labour in. So yes, I expect they wouldn't bitch about zero hour contracts as much.

If we left, we would still have a reasonable economy by anyone's standards.

Plus that £7/hr goes a lot further in Poland than it does here. I.e. we currently have one guy working where I am now who lives in a 1 bedroom flat with 4 other men saving every penny he can get so he can take it back to Poland and build a house. Not quite sure how that helps our economy mind.

[Finnegan]

The Polish workers haven't seen a semi-skilled job go from £11-13/hr to £7/hr due to being able to get cheap labour in. So yes, I expect they wouldn't bitch about zero hour contracts as much.

If we left, we would still have a reasonable economy by anyone's standards.

Plus that £7/hr goes a lot further in Poland than it does here. I.e. we currently have one guy working where I am now who lives in a 1 bedroom flat with 4 other men saving every penny he can get so he can take it back to Poland and build a house. Not quite sure how that helps our economy mind.

What the **** were you doing in Argos for £13p/h?!?

[DJ Barry Hammond]

The Polish workers haven't seen a semi-skilled job go from £11-13/hr to £7/hr due to being able to get cheap labour in. So yes, I expect they wouldn't bitch about zero hour contracts as much.

If we left, we would still have a reasonable economy by anyone's standards.

Plus that £7/hr goes a lot further in Poland than it does here. I.e. we currently have one guy working where I am now who lives in a 1 bedroom flat with 4 other men saving every penny he can get so he can take it back to Poland and build a house. Not quite sure how that helps our economy mind.

So what's the bigger problem here - someone coming here with the aim to make a better life for themselves with the intention of returning home after a period OR is it the employer?

Could this problem be tackled by;

1.) Stricter controls on sham landlords

2.) Rallying against businesses that deliberately undercut wages

The benefit of tackling it this way is that there is potentially a wider benefit than just cutting ties with the EU which may only tackle a smaller degree of the actual problem.

And out of interest - what profession are you talking about? It sounds like you're talking from personal experience, in which I can understand why it would rankle.

[Innovindil]

So what's the bigger problem here - someone coming here with the aim to make a better life for themselves with the intention of returning home after a period OR is it the employer?

Could this problem be tackled by;

1.) Stricter controls on sham landlords

2.) Rallying against businesses that deliberately undercut wages

The benefit of tackling it this way is that there is potentially a wider benefit than just cutting ties with the EU which may only tackle a smaller degree of the actual problem.

And out of interest - what profession are you talking about? It sounds like you're talking from personal experience, in which I can understand why it would rankle.

I'm talking about an argos warehouse based in magna Park. They used to offer permanent jobs because getting labour was difficult, forklift drivers, lorry drivers etc. Permanent staff get pensions, longer holidays, still get paid £11-13/hr. But they haven't taken on any permanent staff in over 10 years, they all work on agency zero hour contracts now, and even the pay grade for that fell over the last 3 years. It used to be £8.30/hr then they had an overabundance of applications, so dropped the wage to £7 and sacked all those on £8.30, simply because they can.

I'm not saying there isn't other ways to deal with it, I'm saying that while they are able to post job advertisements across Europe it will continue to lower wages available for British people.

What the **** were you doing in Argos for £13p/h?!?

People who work in the warehouse on a permanent contract (I'd estimate less than 5% of the workforce) have and still do get paid that. Some of them even get more than that. They are the lucky few.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

@@Innovindil

Yes, that's unfortunately been a common practice across the retail sector, but i think that speaks more of the big business culture that has moved to a position of devaluing its work force rather than appreciating it and I'd much rather efforts were taken to tackle an abuse of a principle that was never designed to do this.

[Thracian]

Last night i had a long conversation with my oldest about the referendum. It is a substantial part to his job to give good advice to his clients.

 

Although marginally inclined towards "Remain" he seemed most concerned about the disruption of leaving.

 

He was also fairly dismissive of immigration concerns but accepted he had a rural situation and was largely sheltered from the massive incomer-effects on people in places like Slough where my youngest lives - he having no doubts about his referendum choice to "Leave". 

 

It didn't seem that my oldest had much considered the potential of Turkish admission to the EU sometime in the near or distant future and hadn't considered the implications of the considerable build-up of tensions with Russia. But it did seem to bother him when mentioned.

 

I asked him to check these issues out before voting, perhaps through keying in "Obama's roll in creating a caliphate" when he got home and through checking out why the EU's been constantly twisting Russia's tail at US behest, before finally deciding his vote. 

 

I don't pretend to know the full implication of either but there's a lot going on that doesn't seem right to me at the moment.

 

Closest to home is the US siting missile defences near Poland's border, Poland's intention to train a sizeable army of paramilitaries to potentially defend that border, German talk of rearming and calls to establish an EU Army - all factors which paint an ever-more alarming picture about EU strategy and likely stability especially considering that NATO is supposed to be our protective shield for all that one US official says Russia could overwhelm NATO forces in three days.

 

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160609/1041093256/russia-overtake-nato-60-hours.html

 

I saw what US influence did in persuading EU countries to sanction  war in Iraq on the back of a lie.

 

The far-reaching and still unresolving consequences were and remain lamentable in terms of military and civilian deaths, shattered lives, massive infrastructure damage, displaced communities, disease, oppression, extending hatreds, subsidiary conflict and totally irresponsible historical vandalism not to mention the obscene costs which could surely have been better spent.

 

All the above makes me infinitely more inclined to be making our own decisions, hopefully with streetwise leaders and even more streetwise advisors, though the last two wishes might be wishful thinking.   

[Thracian]

Xenophobia at its absolute finest.

 

 

 

Absolute nonsense. Just a weak attempt at leftist packaging. 

[Nick]

Absolute nonsense. Just a weak attempt at leftist packaging. 

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

Jesus, where to begin. The government obviously is all about the money, which has been seen by economy economy economy approach in these debates, so why on earth would they do something to hurt the fatcats, and thus, the economy?

So the easiest way to deal with it is to reduce the ease of getting cheap labour from Europe.

About the trading thing, the main argument of the leave side is although we only count for a low percentage of the WHOLE of Europe, we still send out more than we bring in. Will they really cut off their noses to spite us? We're the 5th biggest economy in the world, not some backwater 3rd rate country who wouldn't be noticed missing.

And again, Cameron has stated that he will stay and nothing is saying he can't / won't. So again, there are no assurances on who will be in charge after an exit. You're asking people to make promises on what will happen when they can't guarantee them. A la Cameron's "we'll get migration down below 100k" empty promises.

 

 

If zero-hours contracts is your main grievance, as you suggested first time, then you'd be better off getting rid of the UK Govt that loves and controls them, rather than the EU, which doesn't.

 

You have a much better point re. immigration dragging down pay rates - and there should have been more restrictions on EU labour migration (could be a "shutting the stable door" scenario now). But wouldn't it be better to join a union to push for better terms & conditions (easier said than done, I know), and to support parties that will legislate for greater security of employment, rather than the current bunch who want to deregulate employment as much as possible (as demonstrated by the prevalence of zero-hours contracts)? Shutting the doors on new EU immigration might have some beneficial effects on pay rates eventually, but downward pressure on pay can come from many sources: e.g. when UK unemployment is high. Non-EU immigration is even higher than EU immigration, and the UK Government (including Gove, IDS & co) have complete control over that!

 

I think you've got UK imports & exports the wrong way round. In 2015, our exports to the EU were £223bn, our imports from the EU were £291bn. 44% of our exports went to the EU and 53% of our imports came from the EU (Source: ONS, House of Commons Library Briefing Paper 06091, June 2016). We have a trade deficit with the EU (and a surplus with the rest of the world).

 

Vote Leave's point is that the EU doesn't want to lose its export markets in the UK. That's true enough. I'm sure the EU will want to do a deal to maintain UK/EU trade. But it only accounts for 16% of EU exports: http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.V2f1v7grKUkThe fact that the imports figure is slightly lower is of minimal importance. In contrast, we get 53% of our imports from the EU & 44% of our exports go there - so the trading relationship is important to them, but MUCH, MUCH more important to us.

 

Imagine you are in business. You depend on a particular client for 44%-53% of your trade. He depends on you for 16% of his trade. You both have an incentive to do a deal, but who is in the stronger bargaining position? He is!

 

If Cameron stays after a Brexit vote, he will have to do what his Brexit colleagues want. Otherwise, they have the referendum mandate, the votes among Tory MPs and the support among party members to overthrow him. That's a political reality.

 

The Brexit people can't promise a particular outcome, but they CAN say what sort of post-Brexit deal they favour - and can stop dishonestly claiming that the EU will agree to end the free movement of labour but do trade deals as beneficial as the ones under the single market. There will be a choice: UK control of immigration + worse trade deals v. no UK control of immigration + payment of EU contributions + a good trade deal. Which is their priority, I wonder?  

[The Railway Man]

Horrible stuff, seen more and more of this over the last few days, I can see why they are doing it though, it's working.

 

 

 

[Finnegan]

Horrible stuff, seen more and more of this over the last few days, I can see why they are doing it though, it's working.

It's working but here's a picture that shows a bunch of negative feedback and calling the poster out? Yeah okay.

[The Railway Man]

It's working but here's a picture that shows a bunch of negative feedback and calling the poster out? Yeah okay.

 

15 people liked it, 4 had liked the criticism.

 

This death does look to have had something to do with the poll swing towards remain, nothing else of any significance has happened since.

[MPH]

Horrible stuff, seen more and more of this over the last few days, I can see why they are doing it though, it's working.

 

 

 

 

 Horrible and shameless exploitation but Let's not pretend that if it was a Britain First leader or an OUT MP that was murdered you wouldn't get some of their friends doing the exact same thing.

 

 

 

Besides, what did the shooter think was going to happen? other than It galvanizing people to vote In in her memory so as to prove they would not be intimidated by 'hate and fear'

[Finnegan]

15 people liked it, 4 had liked the criticism.

This death does look to have had something to do with the poll swing towards remain, nothing else of any significance has happened since.

Like I said, polling will swing Remain the closer we get as the reality sets in. Leave is scarier than Remain, we know what we're getting with stay, rightly or wrongly.

If we vote remain, it won't be because a backbench MP got murdered by a mentally ill constituent.

Your insinuating it is isn't drastically worse than the idiot councilor trying to make it so.

[Strokes]

If zero-hours contracts is your main grievance, as you suggested first time, then you'd be better off getting rid of the UK Govt that loves and controls them, rather than the EU, which doesn't.

 

You have a much better point re. immigration dragging down pay rates - and there should have been more restrictions on EU labour migration (could be a "shutting the stable door" scenario now). But wouldn't it be better to join a union to push for better terms & conditions (easier said than done, I know), and to support parties that will legislate for greater security of employment, rather than the current bunch who want to deregulate employment as much as possible (as demonstrated by the prevalence of zero-hours contracts)? Shutting the doors on new EU immigration might have some beneficial effects on pay rates eventually, but downward pressure on pay can come from many sources: e.g. when UK unemployment is high. Non-EU immigration is even higher than EU immigration, and the UK Government (including Gove, IDS & co) have complete control over that!

 

I think you've got UK imports & exports the wrong way round. In 2015, our exports to the EU were £223bn, our imports from the EU were £291bn. 44% of our exports went to the EU and 53% of our imports came from the EU (Source: ONS, House of Commons Library Briefing Paper 06091, June 2016). We have a trade deficit with the EU (and a surplus with the rest of the world).

 

Vote Leave's point is that the EU doesn't want to lose its export markets in the UK. That's true enough. I'm sure the EU will want to do a deal to maintain UK/EU trade. But it only accounts for 16% of EU exports: http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.V2f1v7grKUkThe fact that the imports figure is slightly lower is of minimal importance. In contrast, we get 53% of our imports from the EU & 44% of our exports go there - so the trading relationship is important to them, but MUCH, MUCH more important to us.

 

Imagine you are in business. You depend on a particular client for 44%-53% of your trade. He depends on you for 16% of his trade. You both have an incentive to do a deal, but who is in the stronger bargaining position? He is!

 

If Cameron stays after a Brexit vote, he will have to do what his Brexit colleagues want. Otherwise, they have the referendum mandate, the votes among Tory MPs and the support among party members to overthrow him. That's a political reality.

 

The Brexit people can't promise a particular outcome, but they CAN say what sort of post-Brexit deal they favour - and can stop dishonestly claiming that the EU will agree to end the free movement of labour but do trade deals as beneficial as the ones under the single market. There will be a choice: UK control of immigration + worse trade deals v. no UK control of immigration + payment of EU contributions + a good trade deal. Which is their priority, I wonder?

It could be argued the workforce of said zero hour contracts, might be in a better position to negotiate better deals. if it was not for the migrant workers happy to work zero hour contracts. Power to the people and all that.

[Fox1norfolk]

If zero-hours contracts is your main grievance, as you suggested first time, then you'd be better off getting rid of the UK Govt that loves and controls them, rather than the EU, which doesn't.

 

You have a much better point re. immigration dragging down pay rates - and there should have been more restrictions on EU labour migration (could be a "shutting the stable door" scenario now). But wouldn't it be better to join a union to push for better terms & conditions (easier said than done, I know), and to support parties that will legislate for greater security of employment, rather than the current bunch who want to deregulate employment as much as possible (as demonstrated by the prevalence of zero-hours contracts)? Shutting the doors on new EU immigration might have some beneficial effects on pay rates eventually, but downward pressure on pay can come from many sources: e.g. when UK unemployment is high. Non-EU immigration is even higher than EU immigration, and the UK Government (including Gove, IDS & co) have complete control over that!

 

I think you've got UK imports & exports the wrong way round. In 2015, our exports to the EU were £223bn, our imports from the EU were £291bn. 44% of our exports went to the EU and 53% of our imports came from the EU (Source: ONS, House of Commons Library Briefing Paper 06091, June 2016). We have a trade deficit with the EU (and a surplus with the rest of the world).

 

Vote Leave's point is that the EU doesn't want to lose its export markets in the UK. That's true enough. I'm sure the EU will want to do a deal to maintain UK/EU trade. But it only accounts for 16% of EU exports: http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.V2f1v7grKUkThe fact that the imports figure is slightly lower is of minimal importance. In contrast, we get 53% of our imports from the EU & 44% of our exports go there - so the trading relationship is important to them, but MUCH, MUCH more important to us.

 

Imagine you are in business. You depend on a particular client for 44%-53% of your trade. He depends on you for 16% of his trade. You both have an incentive to do a deal, but who is in the stronger bargaining position? He is!

 

If Cameron stays after a Brexit vote, he will have to do what his Brexit colleagues want. Otherwise, they have the referendum mandate, the votes among Tory MPs and the support among party members to overthrow him. That's a political reality.

 

The Brexit people can't promise a particular outcome, but they CAN say what sort of post-Brexit deal they favour - and can stop dishonestly claiming that the EU will agree to end the free movement of labour but do trade deals as beneficial as the ones under the single market. There will be a choice: UK control of immigration + worse trade deals v. no UK control of immigration + payment of EU contributions + a good trade deal. Which is their priority, I wonder?  

 

There is one area of trade that's been basically ignored in this campaign. In the UK there are now very few companies that are solely UK owned. Non of our car manufacturing industry is UK owned and all the profits go to Japan or Germany etc. The Mini is made by BMW, Jaguar & Landrover is now an Indian company, Aston Martin 95% Quatar company 5% Mercedes.  London Heathrow airport is owned by the Spanish, London City Airport by the Canadians, The German Government owns UK railway franchaises, so do the Dutch and French Governments. Utility companies are owned by French companies so are water companies. The proposed new N power station is going to be built be the French Gov or Chinese. The Germans are planning to buy the London Stock exchange. The Chinese are planing to buy the historic Baltic Exchange. We use to have the best railway engineering, but it is now Bombardier a Canadian company, we build the new high speed trains in the UK, but they are Nissan, so all profits to Japan. We buy thousands of cars from Germany, Spain, Italy, France etc so it would not be in their interest to impose tarriffs. Siemans a massive German multinational controls and owns many UK companies and National Institutions. The steel industry is TATA an Indian company. We also buy steel from Germany, even cardboard, furniture from Sweden. British Airways is only 50% UK owned Spain and Middle Eastern counties own most of the rest. You could go on and on the list is endless so the effect of the UK trade would be basically not effected.

[Countryfox]

I'm a solid OUT and if that happens I'm confident those that worried about leaving will be very pleased with how well we cope 'outside' Europe and indeed prosper as a country.

 

No idea which way it will go as there is so much scare mongering and b*llox being talked on both sides that peoples heads are being well and truly messed with.   A taxi driver yesterday told me she was voting to stay in cus she didn't know what was best but  "You've got to vote haven't you" ....    so thats my vote cancelled out. 

 

This is a one time opportunity and I hope we don't fvck it up.

[johnny the fox]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bypLwI5AQvY   

[Buce]

I'm a solid OUT and if that happens I'm confident those that worried about leaving will be very pleased with how well we cope 'outside' Europe and indeed prosper as a country.

No idea which way it will go as there is so much scare mongering and b*llox being talked on both sides that peoples heads are being well and truly messed with. A taxi driver yesterday told me she was voting to stay in cus she didn't know what was best but "You've got to vote haven't you" .... so thats my vote cancelled out.

This is a one time opportunity and I hope we don't fvck it up.

My God - they let women drive taxis now?

Strange times indeed..

[Countryfox]

My God - they let women drive taxis now?

Strange times indeed..

 

And they let them vote !!!    

[The Blur]

15 people liked it, 4 had liked the criticism.

This death does look to have had something to do with the poll swing towards remain, nothing else of any significance has happened since.

Facebook has a feature where you can either like a status or click on several emojis instead. You could see that crying and angry emojis have been clicked which showed that there could be a number of people who have clicked angry face to express their anger or crying face to express their grief so it is definitely less than 14 likes.

People's opinions on Jo Cox's death could be more even balanced than you might think.

[The Blur]

Another blow for Leave campaign.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-nissan-to-take-legal-action-against-vote-leave-campaign-over-leaflet-a7091556.html

Yet another black mark against the state of campaigning on both sides.

[lifted*fox]

Someone else said it a few pages back, but what this referendum has highlighted to me is that the number of people wanting to leave the EU for genuine economical / political reasons seem to be far outweighed by the number people wanting to leave for soundbite reasons such 'we want our country back' and 'it would make Britain great again'. Such sentences are just words that don't mean anything - they have no weight behind them. It's people grasping onto a dream, an ideology that never actually existed - because it appears easier to shake everything up, have mass-change when you feel that something isn't to your liking. It's quite amazing how many people think an exit from the EU would be a fresh start for the UK, we'd all suddenly have loads of excess money and all of our services would immediately get better. Everyone will hang England flags from their front windows and we'll all go walking down our predominantly white, British high-streets on Saturday morning to buy British only produce from the farmer's market and watch people take part in Morris Dancing and other such Great British pastimes. It'll be "good 'ol Blighty, just the way I remember it!". 

 

Well, it won't be, at all, really.

 

What you will have though is a British Government free to do what the hell they like, with no restrictions or input from anyone else. That £350 million a week we spend on EU membership won't be going into your pocket, or your local hospital, or your schools. It'll be siphoned off somewhere else by politicians who have nobody to watch over them or tell them what to do. I very much doubt a vote to leave will mean total disaster, we see other countries who manage outside of the EU, but it won't be the bed of roses everyone looking at through their white and red tinted glasses is expecting - at all.

 

The fact we've even got to the stage where we've having to let actual citizens decide on the economic future of this country is alarming in itself. Even more alarming is the sheer number of people who are going to be voting based on 'passion' and 'pride' and not taking into account the financial and economic implications that staying or leaving will bring about. Both campaigns have been a complete shambles and I'll be honest in admitting that I'm still on the fence and it hasn't been helped by the huge amounts of non-information, misinformation and quite disgusting propaganda on offer - from both sides.

 

If I can't make a well informed decision then it's quite frankly worrying that on Thursday there will be thousands of British people out there who are even less well-equipped than myself with a pen in their hand making a decision they know very little about. 

[johnny the fox]

When people claim the leave vote is racist to any degree take a look at the EU parliament, you don't see many black or ethnic faces in there or among the commissioners..