The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[Dodgy Bob]

This is an interesting (and quite long) read on the history of HS2. I'm not sure how much of it is completely unbiased but it's almost The Wire-esque in how it exposes institutional failure.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/07/hs2-the-zombie-train-that-refuses-to-die

Again, nothing to do with the EU, just our own jumbled up way of doing things which is completely responsible for our failure to provide adequate infrastructure and which won't change one bit should we leave the EU.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Why say black, Asian, Chinese when the immigration in question is white Christian?

It's a fact that the huge influx of people has suppressed wages and that affects people at the lower end of the scale. The huge numbers coming in means our infrastructure can't cope, not just schools and hospitals but our roads and housing stock. It's changing the country permanently and not 1 person in the country has been asked if that's what they want.

There are pluses and minuses to immigration, the fact that it is imposed upon us with no chance to hold the decision makers to account is what offends me.

Ok, I promised to come back on wages...

Now I personally think a lot of employers have got away with murder and have conviently passed the buck on elsewhere because I've been party to wage freezes myself at a middling office job.

Truth is, a lot of companies, especially the big chain stores suffered because their models didn't predict the impact on the Internet on their positions - and it's meant they've had to adjust and reduce costs - and that was always going to result in the lower end worker being hit. Most companies have also ****ed up their pension schemes - meaning the new workers are losing out to those about to retire (sound familiar?)

The guise of austerity also helped this, because it made people feel like no-one was getting a pay rise (except for the top end), but with an underperforming company the threat of job loses and an impotent union with hardly anyone in it, all of us on the floor were to feel grateful to have a job.

Yet this was a psychological manipulation that beated people down feeling they couldn't leave - because when I looked about, to my suprise there were opportunities out there for those confident enough to go and sell themselves for all they're worth.

That's not to deny the market is still tough, but if you're willing to put the effort in, better opportunities will come your way.

So I would say to the guy who's been ****ed around by Argos, don't assume that's all you can do, have a clear vision of where your next step is on the ladder and push for it - because being in or out of the EU will not make much difference to your prospects, it's you that controls your destiny.

[bovril]

The most disappointing thing about this referendum is the lack of a Brass Eye special.

[Thracian]

Think Labour are going to be in real shock come friday...what they assume is their core vote is going to desert them ..apart from the metropolitan luuvies.. the disconnect is palpable .... when you hear alan johnson supporting and backing up chancellor osborne.. you wince..

 

 

I'm tempted to say "I hope so" but it's far to close to call and I'm by no means certain that, whichever way I vote, I'll be right. Even when trying to look at the broadest picture and my complete certainty about what the future holds for the freedoms we so cherish.  

[Strokes]

Similarly isn't it strange that people who are usually free market tories who think things like zero hours contracts are necessary for efficient business are now suddenly completely unconcerned by economic progress and just wish their local warehouse would pay their forklift truck drivers £2 more per hour?

It's actually quite interesting how this debate has transcended some of the entrenched lines between left and right. A better quality debate without caricatures like Izzard and Farage would have done it even more so.

You are mistaken if you think I'm a dyed in the wool Tory, I voted for them because of the promise of this referendum and only decided at the last minute to back them. I won't vote conservative again whilst they continue down this path. I'm disgusted with them.

[Strokes]

The question is, is this the right stand to take?

Trust me, the EU will change and within that, the Freedom of Movement Principle will be up for discussion - large population moves is no good for any country (mass moves out also cause problems). There is pressure to discuss this issue from several sides and Donald Tusk for one has made it clear changes are needed.

The other thing that is important to understand - no ones really brought these discussions to the EU table before now. Given the scenario, there is now political weight from France, Holland, Denmark, Italy, Spain and possibly even Germany to discuss and agree a situation that works better for all concerned. To some degree, it could be a change within the EU might make it easier to reduce immigration overall than coming out.

We are voting on the EU negotiated most recently, if they plan to change structure they should have given DC a better deal. They sent him home with nothing, because they have zero interest in reforming.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

http://visual.ons.gov.uk/welfare-spending/

So here's my point about our population position that seems to have been overlooked by most - possibly because saying we might in fact need to maintain a level of immigration for a while wouldn't go down very well politically, but we clearly have an issue with a huge continued block of people coming up to pensionable age, without the same level of working age people behind them.

The annual budget on state pension alone was £108 billion in 14/15 - or £2,076,923,077 a week, not something that would fit on the side of a bus easily.

That cost is only going to go up, so in order to keep pace we'll need increased tax receipts or reduced public expenditure or a bit of both. Of course, one way to increase tax receipts is to have more people paying them alongside a growing economy. It's the same story with the NHS, so if we want to maintain those things, we will need a way to pay for it.

Now the reason it looks all so crap all of a sudden is down to The Conservatives preference for the market to cater for things, it distests state investment as a rule - yet the market has been through a recession too, banks aren't lending and so companies were hesitant to put in massive outlay towards big projects - and the EU question has only delayed that further.

Now it stands to reason, if you're a company that's planning to put in big investment somewhere, a place that offers you a larger customer base near by as well as the domestic market is going to be more attractive and as much as we don't like big business these days because they don't pay taxes, we actually could do with some of them ploughing that money back into this country - because they in turn create small and medium size business and most importantly jobs.

So it's this mix of things that convinces me that maintaining our position is the best course of action - if we come out and faff about for 5-10 years trying to sort out trade deals here, there and everywhere, the country could be crippled.

And think about it, we have unquie position inside the EU in that we don't use the single currency and we speak English, it's a major USP for the likes of the USA, China and Japan. We've got something they can't have in the same way and they love us for it, so why not play to that strength than give it up on the notion that we might be able to reduce the people wanting to come to this island, when it might not happen anyway.

It should be noted, Vote Leave's top brass haven't been saying less, they've been saying controlled and if that means more skilled people coming in, that means less chances for our own to move up the ladder to the better living standard jobs that we want for our children, especially if we give up our own amazing freedom to choose where we wish to live, work and play, not just on this island, but on a whole continent.

Current budget spending graph below that should make anyone realise the EU budget expenditure is a small fraction of overall spending;

http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/government_expenditure.html

[DJ Barry Hammond]

The most disappointing thing about this referendum is the lack of a Brass Eye special.

There's been a lack of good satire.

[Thracian]

I'm tempted to say "I hope so" but it's far to close to call and I'm by no means certain that, whichever way I vote, I'll be right. Even when trying to look at the broadest picture and my complete certainty about what the future holds for the freedoms we so cherish.  

 

Ok, I promised to come back on wages...

Now I personally think a lot of employers have got away with murder and have conviently passed the buck on elsewhere because I've been party to wage freezes myself at a middling office job.

Truth is, a lot of companies, especially the big chain stores suffered because their models didn't predict the impact on the Internet on their positions - and it's meant they've had to adjust and reduce costs - and that was always going to result in the lower end worker being hit. Most companies have also ****ed up their pension schemes - meaning the new workers are losing out to those about to retire (sound familiar?)

The guise of austerity also helped this, because it made people feel like no-one was getting a pay rise (except for the top end), but with an underperforming company the threat of job loses and an impotent union with hardly anyone in it, all of us on the floor were to feel grateful to have a job.

Yet this was a psychological manipulation that beated people down feeling they couldn't leave - because when I looked about, to my suprise there were opportunities out there for those confident enough to go and sell themselves for all they're worth.

That's not to deny the market is still tough, but if you're willing to put the effort in, better opportunities will come your way.

So I would say to the guy who's been ****ed around by Argos, don't assume that's all you can do, have a clear vision of where your next step is on the ladder and push for it - because being in or out of the EU will not make much difference to your prospects, it's you that controls your destiny.

 

 

When I read that - and I don't disagree with any of it - I'm a bit surprised anyone works for anyone but themselves.

 

Mind you, even if you do that, your business can be affected by Soulsby's proud Leicester City Labour council moving the goalposts, turning the working environment into a building site,  disrupting traffic to the point where even staff are getting camera fines and making the whole experience a nightmare. 

 

There's no compensation I've ever been offered. They just kick the very working people they're supposed to serve within the Labour movement, right where it hurts and then kick you some more if they get the chance. And people on here talk to me about "hypocrisy".

 

At Leicester market - and surrounding areas too - it's been almost non-stop disruption for years.

 

First they repaved the north section for a reported £800,000. then within months they dug it all up to build the £4m food hall that looks very nice but houses only about a dozen stalls and cramps the periphery road in such a way I'm surprised the whole idea wasn't condemned by health and safety.

 

Then they demolished the vacant fish market with all the dust and disruption that went with it for months and now they've turned to developing the area behind the Corn Exchange.

 

Surrounding all these things are periphery works to close off streets, build cycle lanes, major constuction of student flats and so on.

 

How they have the audacity to continue charging for market stalls I've no idea but the profit levels of most I've spoken to have turned pathetic with fruit selling now at 50p a bowl, things are that desperate.

 

Sir Peter the Visionary?

 

Yes, but at many other people's expense - and more downgraded, throwaway Brits!  .  

[Thracian]

Ok all very nice ideas - but whilst we run a deficit and have a huge part of our budget catered towards pensions and the hospital care that the elderly will need, we won't be able to do much of that. Borrowing to spend on propping up annual spend is not a great way to go about things.

Personally I'd prefer to look at a range of infrastructure projects that the government keeps a share of so it recoups its investment over the longer term - so council houses, minus the right to buy (keep them in stock, give people a discount to buy a new home, not the council house so it feels like they're moving up the ladder), sort out the railways and major town centre transport links so cars no longer seem so essential and look to be leaders in renewable energy, especially tidal given that's a natural resource of ours that's ever present.

I'm not so sure about Fracking myself - like a lot of these things, the full impacts aren't really known until 20/30 years time, I could see it causing subsidence or flooding issues longer term.

But as I've pointed out and I'd be amazed if anyone could disagree - the biggest reason for the problems above is due to decisions taken at UK government level.

 

 

 

Your last sentence was a point much emphasised by my oldest son. Sadly I don't think the whole issue relates to economics anyway. I think there are other important and worrying considerations. Even then though, I don't think it's easy to assess the right answer or if there even is a right answer within the choice we've got.  

[Thracian]

This, like so many America commentaries, is somewhat laboured, but there are points worth thinking about:

 

 http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6337/the_economic_case_for_brexit_is_overwhelming

[DJ Barry Hammond]

@@Thracian

You probably won't like this, but I looked up the redevelopment because I had a hunch on where some of the funding for that might have come from and yes, you've guessed it...

http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/leicester-indoor-market-revamp-gets-pound-2/story-20253565-detail/story.html

£2 million came from the EU.

Now you may say this is money the UK government should be spending anyway (even if you disagree with the project), but sometimes having money outside of a governments normal spending for projects like this is handy because it then doesn't get swallowed up in day to day stuff.

And if the disruption is that bad - get yourself on the bloody council so you're the one making the decisons!

[DJ Barry Hammond]

http://www.leicestermarket.co.uk/trader-spotlight-dejohns-fruit-and-veg/

[Webbo]

@@Thracian

You probably won't like this, but I looked up the redevelopment because I had a hunch on where some of the funding for that might have come from and yes, you've guessed it...

http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/leicester-indoor-market-revamp-gets-pound-2/story-20253565-detail/story.html

£2 million came from the EU.

Now you may say this is money the UK government should be spending anyway (even if you disagree with the project), but sometimes having money outside of a governments normal spending for projects like this is handy because it then doesn't get swallowed up in day to day stuff.

And if the disruption is that bad - get yourself on the bloody council so you're the one making the decisons!

The EU money was ours to start with. The EU swallows money up in day to day stuff as well. At best you could say we're paying for 2 lots of bureaucracy. I'd say, as its our money, spent in our country, it's best spent by people who are answerable to the electorate.

[Innovindil]

So I would say to the guy who's been ****ed around by Argos, don't assume that's all you can do, have a clear vision of where your next step is on the ladder and push for it - because being in or out of the EU will not make much difference to your prospects, it's you that controls your destiny.

Yeah I get this. The argos problems were almost 4 years ago now. Like I said before they laid off all the expensive workers (me included) for cheaper staff.

I joined a small engineering firm in Oadby, went back to college and got a mechanical engineering degree.

I'm now happily semi-successful on £11.50/hr.

But that doesn't help those that don't get the help I did (my dad got me through the engineering door). Or those not capable of learning - sort of - difficult skills like my brothers.

[Beliall]

In case it helps, here's a Professor of European Law talking about what would happen in the event of Brexit. It lasts 24 minutes, but is well worth it as a counterweight to all the biased bullshit from both campaigns. He's pro-Remain, so some people will dismiss him as biased - but he's arguing from a position of professional knowledge (and would presumably be discredited professionally if he was talking bollocks):

 

 

As a counter-balance, here's the article from the Guardian Economics Editor arguing in favour of Brexit from a Left perspective, due to the current dysfunctionality of the Eurozone. This is very much the stance that had me considering a Leave vote, as it's quite clear that the Eurozone is struggling economically and has voluntarily got itself into an economic policy straitjacket that could lead somewhere very bad. I've come to the conclusion, though, that the EU/Eurozone could potentially escape that doom through reform.....whereas Brexit probably takes us somewhere very bad with a lot less hope of escape:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/20/brexit-best-answer-to-dying-eurozone-eu-undemocratic-elite

 

Nothing much about immigration in either of these contributions, but I know others will have their say about that.

 

Thanks for posting that. very interesting. Think i finally have enough information to make a decision

[Thracian]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36526298

[Beliall]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36526298

 

Really? come on. Possible but highly unlikely surely, screams of scare tactics

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Beckham's for Remain apparently - that's argument over surely?

[Alf Bentley]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36526298

 

 

Interesting idea - the return to the era of the "City States"?

 

Probably won't happen, but not as out of the question as some might think, maybe.

 

For better or worse, our country is going to be in flux in lots of ways, regardless of the result. But particularly if there's a Leave vote.

[johnny the fox]

Beckham's for Remain apparently - that's argument over surely?

always admired him as a great political thinker..

[johnny the fox]

http://www.leicestermarket.co.uk/trader-spotlight-dejohns-fruit-and-veg/

you can't beat a nice firm banana..

[johnny the fox]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36526298

are there  people who actually get paid for writing such shight?  what a time to be alive..

[Guest Bilo]

There seems to be a last minute swing back to remain, just like in the Scottish referendum. Project fear has done its job.

Which one? Both campaigns have been guilty of scaremongering.

[Alf Bentley]

Think Labour are going to be in real shock come friday...what they assume is their core vote is going to desert them ..apart from the metropolitan luuvies.. the disconnect is palpable .... when you hear alan johnson supporting and backing up chancellor osborne.. you wince..

 

Yeah I get this. The argos problems were almost 4 years ago now. Like I said before they laid off all the expensive workers (me included) for cheaper staff.

I joined a small engineering firm in Oadby, went back to college and got a mechanical engineering degree.

I'm now happily semi-successful on £11.50/hr.

But that doesn't help those that don't get the help I did (my dad got me through the engineering door). Or those not capable of learning - sort of - difficult skills like my brothers.

 

 

I reckon Labour is well aware that a lot of its core vote will support Leave on Thursday, Johnny. I'd guess that's partly why the Lab Remain campaign has been so low-profile. They know they lost a lot of their Scottish core vote after joining the Tories in opposing Scottish independence.

 

Labour seems to be starting to address the issue of high immigration contributing to low pay. Not before time, some might say - and certainly too late to stop lots of Lab voters supporting Brexit. But it might offer a few clues about changes in Lab policies after the referendum: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36570383

- Corbyn: "If you actually deliberately lower living standards and increase poverty in certain countries in south-east and eastern Europe then you're bound to have a flow of people looking for somewhere else to go. Surely the issue is an anti-austerity, a growth package all across Europe rather than this"

- McDonnell: Labour will "look again at the free movement of labour"

- Watson: Labour will "make the case to revise EU laws which enable citizens of member states to live and work anywhere in the EU".

They've also said that they'd reinstate the extra funds for public services/social integration given to councils accepting migrants - funds cut by the Tory Govt. After all, not many migrants head for Henley, Surrey, Witney or Knutsford, where Boris, Gove, Dave & Georgie Boy are MPs.   

 

We'll have to remember Innovindil's story about Argos cutting pay from £11/hr to £7/hr if employers start complaining about the higher "living wage" being unaffordable. That higher minimum wage is one bit of good news for your brothers, Innovindil, even if the Govt originally intended it to be offset by tax credit cuts (now cancelled). However, if the public finances get tricky post-Brexit, I wonder if they'll say that it's unaffordable for employers and/or the public purse? They certainly did exactly that with their election promise to limit funding of care for the elderly to £72k per person....completely reneged on it as "unaffordable" once they'd used it to get election votes from the elderly.

 

Anyone seen any promises from Boris, Nigel, Gove or Leave re. low pay? If not, are they just scapegoating immigrants to win votes? 

Here's Paul Mason, describing Brexit as a "fake revolt", conning the justifiably angry working class so as to benefit the elite: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/20/brexit-fake-revolt-eu-working-class-culture-hijacked-help-elite