North Korea

[Guest]

Pretty much

 

If the west is to bombard North Korea with anything, let it be capitalism

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/15/bombard-north-korea-capitalism-kim-jong-un?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

[leicsmac]

8 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

I guess the point is that if anybody has reason to bear a grudge for that particular piece of history it's not the NK lot.

 

That said in searching for Japanese atrocities against the Korean people a rather important point I completely glossed over was the colonisation of the Korean peninsular by Japan from 1910 until Japan's defeat by the allies in 1945 at which point Korea was divided up between the US (South) and USSR (North), both halves receiving full autonomy at the end of the war or soon after.  During occupation the Japanese exploited Korean ressources, potentially forced Korean citizens into armed service (unconfirmed) and as Mac says had comfort women sent to the fronts, so that's where most of the bad blood seems to come from.  Japanese occupation did boost Korea's industrialisation process (even if Japan enjoyed most of the benefits of it) and South Korea and Japan get on pretty well these days as I understand it with media culture from each nation being popular in the other (though I'm sure Mac knows a lot more about that).

Yeah, this is pretty much all spot on. The Japanese had control of the Korean peninsula from a fair bit earlier than 1910, but it was the assassination of the moderate Ito Hirobumi by a Korean nationalist in 1909 which gave the Japanese hardliners the excuse they needed to really use the iron fist. They essentially looked to pretty much extinguish Korean culture and replace it with their own, as well as using the natural resources to develop the country. 

 

Once WW2 had finished Korea was essentially carved in two by the US and USSR because it suited them both and without the wholesale consent of the Korean people. (Something mentioned on here before and something that royally pisses me off.)

 

But it's also true that South Korea and Japan are reasonably well acquainted diplomatically and culturally these days (the odd argument about past atrocities from idiot nationalists on both sides aside) and the above obviously doesn't justify the NK's lobbing missiles.

[Countryfox]

1 hour ago, toddybad said:

Pretty much

 

If the west is to bombard North Korea with anything, let it be capitalism

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/15/bombard-north-korea-capitalism-kim-jong-un?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

 

Now that sounds like a plan !! ...    go for it !

[leicsmac]

So the Wall Street Journal proposes starving the North Korean population to death as a solution to effect regime change.

 

Apart from being grotesquely inhumane...do they seriously think this hasn't been tried before?

[Guest MattP]

28 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

So the Wall Street Journal proposes starving the North Korean population to death as a solution to effect regime change.

 

Apart from being grotesquely inhumane...do they seriously think this hasn't been tried before?

It's a shit idea but it's still somewhere inbetween all our war and doing nothing, if we admit ourselves we can't force regime change then we have to look at options to try and make the Korean people do it, I think it was David Starkey who once said "people can only free themselves" and he's right, any external intervention and we'll again be seen as the invader.

 

Least they are putting something out there though.

[SpacedX]

10 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

So the Wall Street Journal proposes starving the North Korean population to death as a solution to effect regime change.

 

Apart from being grotesquely inhumane...do they seriously think this hasn't been tried before?

This is not as simple as Western commentators suppose. North Korea has been pursuing self-reliance since the early 1960s even though they have actively exploited international economic cooperation from aid to trade. Nevertheless, this long-standing focus on autonomy helps explain the resilience of the North Korean national economy against measures that would have crippled other economies. China would never allow the collapse of North Korea.

 

It's not as though the North Koreans are not accustomed to a high doses of tension and bellicose rhetoric, but the language of Trump (“fire and fury”) and his cohorts such as Nikki Haley (Kim is “begging for war”) constitute a new level of verbal threat. Combine this with the annual joint US-ROK military maneuvers, the stationing of THAAD in Seongju and China’s open criticism to it, Japan’s push for remilitarisation, and new UNSC Resolutions and sanctions, and you appreciate exactly what Kim Jong Un needs to keep his system stable and his relationship with Beijing intact. A case in point was the announcement of the policy in 2013 - (can't remember what it was called) - of simultaneously developing the economy and nuclear weapons replacing the military-first policy of the Kim Jong Il era. Kim Jong Un made his order of priorities very clear. Unlike his predecessor, he does not just want to develop the economy so that the military would be financed properly. Rather, he repeatedly stressed that he regards a reliable nuclear deterrent as the safety guarantee that would allow him to focus on economic development. 

 

Considering the current debate about cutting off North Korea’s oil supply the imported amount of oil from China has remained more or less stable, but it now costs only half as much as it did a few years ago. A hike in world market prices for oil would thus have a much more serious effect on North Korean oil imports than most sanctions. And China aren't about to curtail this significantly anyway. The regime is all but buttressed by the Chinese fearful of a united Korea under Western influence and the prospect of the inevitable diaspora across the border in the event of the collapse of the state. In addition to this, many other bilateral trade initiatives remained intact and operating. This includes tourism, business via Dandong, the export of North Korean labor force to sunset industries such as textile factories in China, and the operation of the Rason Special Economic Zone in the Northeast. About 90 percent of the overall recorded volume is based on bilateral exchanges between North Korea and China - not much else matters, especially for sanctions. In other words, most of the time, when we talk about North Korea’s foreign trade, we actually talk about trade with China. Added to that, the deplorable use of guest workers in Russia - revenue generated from transfers, including remittances from workers employed abroad. Their number is in the range of 50,000 people. If their annual income is around $10,000 then they earn their country 500 million USD in hard currency income. This alone would cover two-thirds of the annual trade deficit. 

 

So when such vile inhumane rhetoric emerges from the west about "starving out" North Korea it would require the complicity of both China and Russia. That isn't about to happen.

[leicsmac]

19 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's a shit idea but it's still somewhere inbetween all our war and doing nothing, if we admit ourselves we can't force regime change then we have to look at options to try and make the Korean people do it, I think it was David Starkey who once said "people can only free themselves" and he's right, any external intervention and we'll again be seen as the invader.

 

Least they are putting something out there though.

It is a middle ground, but I think it's inhumane and likely ineffective anyway. I'd agree that change has to come from within, but this isn't the way to do it and it's a daft suggestion tbh.

 

15 minutes ago, Line-X said:

This is not as simple as Western commentators suppose. North Korea has been pursuing self-reliance since the early 1960s even though they have actively exploited international economic cooperation from aid to trade. Nevertheless, this long-standing focus on autonomy helps explain the resilience of the North Korean national economy against measures that would have crippled other economies. China would never allow the collapse of North Korea.

 

It's not as though the North Koreans are not accustomed to a high doses of tension and bellicose rhetoric, but the language of Trump (“fire and fury”) and his cohorts such as Nikki Haley (Kim is “begging for war”) constitute a new level of verbal threat. Combine this with the annual joint US-ROK military maneuvers, the stationing of THAAD in Seongju and China’s open criticism to it, Japan’s push for remilitarisation, and new UNSC Resolutions and sanctions, and you appreciate exactly what Kim Jong Un needs to keep his system stable and his relationship with Beijing intact. A case in point was the announcement of the policy in 2013 - (can't remember what it was called) - of simultaneously developing the economy and nuclear weapons replacing the military-first policy of the Kim Jong Il era. Kim Jong Un made his order of priorities very clear. Unlike his predecessor, he does not just want to develop the economy so that the military would be financed properly. Rather, he repeatedly stressed that he regards a reliable nuclear deterrent as the safety guarantee that would allow him to focus on economic development. 

 

Considering the current debate about cutting off North Korea’s oil supply the imported amount of oil from China has remained more or less stable, but it now costs only half as much as it did a few years ago. A hike in world market prices for oil would thus have a much more serious effect on North Korean oil imports than most sanctions. And China aren't about to curtail this significantly anyway. The regime is all but buttressed by the Chinese fearful of a united Korea under Western influence and the prospect of the inevitable diaspora across the border in the event of the collapse of the state. In addition to this, many other bilateral trade initiatives remained intact and operating. This includes tourism, business via Dandong, the export of North Korean labor force to sunset industries such as textile factories in China, and the operation of the Rason Special Economic Zone in the Northeast. About 90 percent of the overall recorded volume is based on bilateral exchanges between North Korea and China - not much else matters, especially for sanctions. In other words, most of the time, when we talk about North Korea’s foreign trade, we actually talk about trade with China. Added to that, the deplorable use of guest workers in Russia - revenue generated from transfers, including remittances from workers employed abroad. Their number is in the range of 50,000 people. If their annual income is around $10,000 then they earn their country 500 million USD in hard currency income. This alone would cover two-thirds of the annual trade deficit. 

 

So when such vile inhumane rhetoric emerges from the west about "starving out" North Korea it would require the complicity of both China and Russia. That isn't about to happen.

Spot on.

 

This is a situation of real complexity.

[Guest MattP]

Very strong words to the UN from Trump but I think Kim realises it's all bravado. 

 

Expect him to launch another one in the next couple of days to prove it.

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, MattP said:

Very strong words to the UN from Trump but I think Kim realises it's all bravado. 

 

Expect him to launch another one in the next couple of days to prove it.

The worry is that at some point trump feels the need to stop himself looking like a prize chump for making ridiculous statements which kim basically laughs back in his face. Trump really needs to stop this shit. 

[leicsmac]

36 minutes ago, MattP said:

Very strong words to the UN from Trump but I think Kim realises it's all bravado. 

 

Expect him to launch another one in the next couple of days to prove it.

Yeah, agreed - though as has been said on here before it's purely hypothetical as the NK's will never step over the line anyway. Unless of course, the US decides to go pre-emptive, which would be stupidity of the highest order.

 

Also, I'm hoping there was at least some consultation with the SK's about these words (as they have the most to lose, after all).

 

Edit: Interesting redux of the "axis of evil" speech, too.

Edited 19 September 2017 by leicsmac

[Buce]

5 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Yeah, agreed - though as has been said on here before it's purely hypothetical as the NK's will never step over the line anyway. Unless of course, the US decides to go pre-emptive, which would be stupidity of the highest order.

 

Also, I'm hoping there was at least some consultation with the SK's about these words (as they have the most to lose, after all).

 

Edit: Interesting redux of the "axis of evil" speech, too.

 

Trouble is, Mac, you've just described Trump.

[Guest MattP]

11 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Yeah, agreed - though as has been said on here before it's purely hypothetical as the NK's will never step over the line anyway. Unless of course, the US decides to go pre-emptive, which would be stupidity of the highest order.

 

Also, I'm hoping there was at least some consultation with the SK's about these words (as they have the most to lose, after all).

 

Edit: Interesting redux of the "axis of evil" speech, too.

I hate empty threats, even if NK won't go over the line you either enact the rule that countries like this can't develop missiles or change it so they can.

 

I just wish they would stop with the threats, starting to sound like a parent threatening to turn around the car. The kids ie Kim know it's bollocks.

 

Either do something significant or just admit there is nothing we can do to stop it and then South Korea should start building their own nuclear arsenal as well.

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

I hate empty threats, even if NK won't go over the line you either enact the rule that countries like this can't develop missiles or change it so they can.

 

I just wish they would stop with the threats, starting to sound like a parent threatening to turn around the car. The kids ie Kim know it's bollocks.

 

Either do something significant or just admit there is nothing we can do to stop it and then South Korea should start building their own nuclear arsenal as well.

I don't think the threats are that empty: if NK steps over the line and actually attacks US or SK territory in a meaningful fashion looking to annex territory...then they get wiped out. I don't think that is in doubt.

 

And everyone knows this which is why all of this is so much hot air.

[lifted*fox]

it does seem a bit absurd though that the good people of Japan are currently having to put up with warheads flying over their country. 

 

there's always a risk something could go wrong so... do we just wait for that to happen?

 

 

[leicsmac]

11 minutes ago, lifted*fox said:

it does seem a bit absurd though that the good people of Japan are currently having to put up with warheads flying over their country. 

 

there's always a risk something could go wrong so... do we just wait for that to happen?

 

 

Oh, no doubt. It is absurd and the sooner those missiles (edit: not warheads, we're not even sure if they're capable of that) are no longer flying the better.

 

The problem is coming up with a meaningful solution that doesn't directly lead to thousands if not a million-plus deaths and a well-functioning OECD country laid waste.

Edited 19 September 2017 by leicsmac

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I don't think the threats are that empty: if NK steps over the line and actually attacks US or SK territory in a meaningful fashion looking to annex territory...then they get wiped out. I don't think that is in doubt.

 

And everyone knows this which is why all of this is so much hot air.

The threats about them stopping testing are clearly bollocks, they keep threatening and he keeps doing it.

[Guest MattP]

This has made me chuckle

[Buce]

9 minutes ago, lifted*fox said:

it does seem a bit absurd though that the good people of Japan are currently having to put up with warheads flying over their country. 

 

there's always a risk something could go wrong so... do we just wait for that to happen?

 

 

 

There are no warheads being launched over Japan or anywhere else.

[leicsmac]

Just now, MattP said:

The threats about them stopping testing are clearly bollocks, they keep threatening and he keeps doing it.

Hence my careful use of what constitutes stepping over the line. The tests don't do that; actually using the weapons tested in any way would.

 

Though it may not seem so I think the line is pretty clearly delineated, and I think all relevant parties know this.

[Carl the Llama]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

This has made me chuckle

Wasn't the claim though that he was personally wiretapped at his home in Trump Tower, a claim for which no evidence has materialised?  And wasn't Manafort (I presume that's who they mean) tapped because of reasonable concerns about his connections with Russia?  

 

Also why is that most recent article from yesterday? I could have sworn they admitted to tapping Manafort months ago...

[Guest]

51 minutes ago, MattP said:

I hate empty threats, even if NK won't go over the line you either enact the rule that countries like this can't develop missiles or change it so they can.

 

I just wish they would stop with the threats, starting to sound like a parent threatening to turn around the car. The kids ie Kim know it's bollocks.

 

Either do something significant or just admit there is nothing we can do to stop it and then South Korea should start building their own nuclear arsenal as well.

Trouble is nk fired its missiles and in response sk fired ballistic missiles in a simulated attack on nk nuclear facilities as a "show of force". 

 

Nk with nukes is horrific. But then I'd say the same of trump.

 

The quicker the un gets rid of security council vetoes and moves towards the securing of a nuclear free world the better. 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Trouble is nk fired its missiles and in response sk fired ballistic missiles in a simulated attack on nk nuclear facilities as a "show of force". 

 

Nk with nukes is horrific. But then I'd say the same of trump.

 

The quicker the un gets rid of security council vetoes and moves towards the securing of a nuclear free world the better. 

Given the US contributes 22%! of UN funding that's not going to happen anytime soon.

 

Trump with nukes may be horrific, but at least the people of the USA can vote him out if they believe that.

 

The Kim family with them is a permanent state of worry for anyone they can reach and also means the World can never do a thing to free the people of the country from that tyranny. It makes it permanent. 

Edited 19 September 2017 by MattP

[Guest FriendlyRam]

So Trump is now straight up threatening genocide... 

 

I dont think hes going anywhere though,, seems he can say as he pleases and it just gets ridiculed anyway,, probably got another 3 years of this aswell 

 

Kim is a prat but Trump is an even bigger one

[Trav Le Bleu]

8 hours ago, MattP said:

It's a shit idea but it's still somewhere inbetween all our war and doing nothing, if we admit ourselves we can't force regime change then we have to look at options to try and make the Korean people do it, I think it was David Starkey who once said "people can only free themselves" and he's right, any external intervention and we'll again be seen as the invader.

 

Least they are putting something out there though.

Do the opposite. Air-drop food and luxury items... in a Bullseye, "look at what you could have won", kind of way, then watch them turn on their leaders.

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Do the opposite. Air-drop food and luxury items... in a Bullseye, "look at what you could have won", kind of way, then watch them turn on their leaders.

If we could do that it would be great. They would shoot the planes down though and China would stop us before we even tried.