North Korea

[Merging Cultures]

 would not go that far but its pretty clear something amiss is going on. You dont go from a standard nuke to an ICMB capable H bomb in the space of a few months without some serious assistance from people who know what they are doing.

On the phone with lil Kim, he probably got duped.

Kim: I don't believe the US have nukes
Trump: yes we do, yes we do, we have the biggest and the best
Kim: well, you don't know how to use them
Trump: yes I do, I have the codes and everything
Kim: haha no, they gave you fake codes
Trump: no they didn't
Kim: prove it...
Trump: 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
Kim: thanks...

Kim: but your scientists are rubbish, they are not as good as mine
Trump: yes they are, they are the best...

Etc.

[leicsmac]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

Standing by and just allowing this to happen could be one the worst mistakes made in humanity.

Maybe.

 

Alternatively, starting a military action that will result in vast destruction and the deaths of millions in the name of preventing something that isn't all that likely to happen (and still isn't) might be a worse one. Unless there's a halfway house that hasn't made itself apparent yet?

 

Do the NK's have a thermonuclear weapon? Probably - the seismic data is quite clear. Are they capable of mounting it on a missile? Possibly - all we have on that is the word of the NK's. Is that missile capable of reaching the US and/or Japan/South Korea without being intercepted? Again, possibly.

 

And does the US have a thousand times as many very well-tested missiles of equal or stronger magnitude ready to go should it be fired, with assurances from other leading nations that there would be no retaliation against them if the NK's attacked first? Most definitely.

 

And that last sentence is really the only factor here that matters and the reason the status quo will still be upheld, despite all this.

 

 

1 hour ago, m4DD0gg said:

Think its quite clear by now that with the advancements NK are making they are getting assistance from Russia and/or China.

Again, maybe. The speed of the advancement says that there is people doing this that know what they're doing. Could be people coming in from a dedicated nation state (though I'd guess they'd be deniable), but could just as easily be completely disaffected non-state actors with experience in nuclear tech and ballistic missile tech that they've paid a wedge. Who knows?

 

It's pretty clear that the international condemnation is pretty unanimous, so if they are getting help from state actors it has to be under the table.

 

Also...for anyone following this I'd highly recommend the Korea Times as a news source alongside most Western media. They give you a pretty good idea of what is going on in South Korea and what they think.

 

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/103_235895.html

Edited 3 September 2017 by leicsmac

[theessexfox]

http://theseoultimes.com/ST/index.html

 

Argument for a diplomatic solution, although it seems a little naively unrealistic.

 

EDIT: Doesn't even link to the article, just the homepage, what a crap website.

Edited 3 September 2017 by theessexfox

[leicsmac]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-trump/nuclear-test-shows-north-korea-remains-dangerous-to-u-s-trump-idUSKCN1BE0OB

 

So much easier to suggest a course of action that isn't "appeasement" when you've got so much less to lose than the country doing it, isn't it?

[SheppyFox]

Nothing will happen.

[Carl the Llama]

13 minutes ago, SheppyFox said:

Nothing will happen.

That's either a reassuring dismissal or a devastating prediction.

[SheppyFox]

17 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

That's either a reassuring dismissal or a devastating prediction.

What's he going to do? Nobody can do anything without being finished themselves, other than trump and he's not as mad as he wants fat Kim to believe. Trump acts, Seoul is finished, Kim acts, NK is finished.  or WW3 is about to break out and we're all going to die.

Edited 3 September 2017 by SheppyFox

[Jattdogg]

Diplomacy, north korea and kim dont belong in the same sentence.. he is a mad man and  cannot and should  not be trusted with nukes. Heck i feel the same way about trump but is it possible that kim is that much more unstable?

 

 

[Strokes]

8 hours ago, Jattdogg said:

Diplomacy, north korea and kim dont belong in the same sentence.. he is a mad man and  cannot and should  not be trusted with nukes. Heck i feel the same way about trump but is it possible that kim is that much more unstable?

 

 

There probably isn't too much in it, the big difference is trump is not in a position to dictate and to cause devastation unchallenged. 

[Guest MattP]

6 minutes ago, Strokes said:

There probably isn't too much in it, the big difference is trump is not in a position to dictate and to cause devastation unchallenged. 

I think Trump is smart enough to realise he can't go dropping nuclear bombs around the World, if he wasn't he'd probably have already done it.

 

I genuinely think Kim is a psychopath in charge of a country and I genuinely won't have an ounce of surprise if he did develop a huge bomb, dropped it on Seoul and then invaded.

[ramboacdc]

this missle gone off yet? 

[Finnegan]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

I think Trump is smart enough to realise he can't go dropping nuclear bombs around the World, if he wasn't he'd probably have already done it.

 

I genuinely think Kim is a psychopath in charge of a country and I genuinely won't have an ounce of surprise if he did develop a huge bomb, dropped it on Seoul and then invaded.

 

Psychopath doesn't necessarily equate to stupid or insane. 

 

He invades SK, he gets wiped off the face of the planet by every global power going. 

 

Russia, China and the US clearly don't want nuclear conflict in the region, they're too busy making billions off each other in international trade. 

 

China want to be the leading global superpower, they'll do it by smiling and buying up the world, not by letting their pitbull bite the neighbors. 

[Buce]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

I think Trump is smart enough to realise he can't go dropping nuclear bombs around the World, if he wasn't he'd probably have already done it.

 

I genuinely think Kim is a psychopath in charge of a country and I genuinely won't have an ounce of surprise if he did develop a huge bomb, dropped it on Seoul and then invaded.

Maybe you should re-think the logic of that remark...

[Guest MattP]

17 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

Psychopath doesn't necessarily equate to stupid or insane. 

 

He invades SK, he gets wiped off the face of the planet by every global power going. 

 

Russia, China and the US clearly don't want nuclear conflict in the region, they're too busy making billions off each other in international trade. 

 

China want to be the leading global superpower, they'll do it by smiling and buying up the world, not by letting their pitbull bite the neighbors. 

I realise that, but at one point, him and his dynasty will realise the game is up, it might be now, it might be in 50 years, whenever that time is I just hope he doesn't have the nuclear arsenal to go out with a bang. I fear he will have.  This is person who has (supposedly) fed family members to dogs for disloyalty, we aren't talking about a normal person.

 

I hope I'm wrong but I don't see a peaceful end to this, whenever it is.

[Innovindil]

24 minutes ago, ramboacdc said:

this missle gone off yet? 

Nah, just more bleating. 

 

Curious to see what they do when they are finished though. Should be entertaining. 

[Jon the Hat]

53 minutes ago, MattP said:

I realise that, but at one point, him and his dynasty will realise the game is up, it might be now, it might be in 50 years, whenever that time is I just hope he doesn't have the nuclear arsenal to go out with a bang. I fear he will have.  This is person who has (supposedly) fed family members to dogs for disloyalty, we aren't talking about a normal person.

 

I hope I'm wrong but I don't see a peaceful end to this, whenever it is.

I tend to agree.  There will come a point when he realizes he is screwed, and what will he do then?  The guy is surrounded by people who fear for their lives - the ultimate yes men.  He likely doesn't have a trusted voice of reason holding him back.

[Bobby Hundreds]

Hopefully the gout will off him.

[ozleicester]

It is all BULLsh!t... our media started the news today with a graphic that said "Brink of WAR"... (nevermind that weve been at war with and been bombing the sh!t out of  several countries for years.)

 

If you remember the cold war.... this is just a poundland version of the 1960s

 

[Jattdogg]

5 minutes ago, ozleicester said:

It is all BULLsh!t... our media started the news today with a graphic that said "Brink of WAR"... (nevermind that weve been at war with and been bombing the sh!t out of  several countries for years.)

 

If you remember the cold war.... this is just a poundland version of the 1960s

 

at that graphic though.

 

I do think kim is borderline psycho/crazy and unpredictable but hope he realises droping a nuke would end his power.  Would he rather die and lose it all or enjoy being a dictator.

[Finnegan]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

I realise that, but at one point, him and his dynasty will realise the game is up, it might be now, it might be in 50 years, whenever that time is I just hope he doesn't have the nuclear arsenal to go out with a bang. I fear he will have.  This is person who has (supposedly) fed family members to dogs for disloyalty, we aren't talking about a normal person.

 

I hope I'm wrong but I don't see a peaceful end to this, whenever it is.

 

It's just posturing. 

 

NK is China's pitbull and China is involved in a lot of wrangling with America and its allies at the moment as China is trying to colonise and reclaim more islands around the Pacific. 

 

NK upping their profile on nuclear armament gives China more political capital to manoeuvre with, it's no coincidence that the news BEFORE all of this was about US recon planes and ships winding up the Chinese or the Chinese arguing with Japan over Senkaku. 

 

What you're watching at the moment is no more about NK vs USA as 1962 was about Cuba vs USA. It's just another mini cold war and it's no more likely to turn nuclear than that was. 

 

It'll all be resolved politically and economically. 

[yorkie1999]

13 hours ago, SheppyFox said:

Nothing will happen.

Said the captain of the titanic.

[Jon the Hat]

So what happens if the live firing excercise SK are carrying out misfires and heads into NK, or god forboid one of the test missiles hits Japan or SK?  Are we sure that there would not be an escalation?  If a land war actually kicked off between SK and NK and SK are clearly winning after a week, then what?

[leicsmac]

2 hours ago, Finnegan said:

 

Psychopath doesn't necessarily equate to stupid or insane. 

 

He invades SK, he gets wiped off the face of the planet by every global power going. 

 

Russia, China and the US clearly don't want nuclear conflict in the region, they're too busy making billions off each other in international trade. 

 

China want to be the leading global superpower, they'll do it by smiling and buying up the world, not by letting their pitbull bite the neighbors. 

 

33 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

It's just posturing. 

 

NK is China's pitbull and China is involved in a lot of wrangling with America and its allies at the moment as China is trying to colonise and reclaim more islands around the Pacific. 

 

NK upping their profile on nuclear armament gives China more political capital to manoeuvre with, it's no coincidence that the news BEFORE all of this was about US recon planes and ships winding up the Chinese or the Chinese arguing with Japan over Senkaku. 

 

What you're watching at the moment is no more about NK vs USA as 1962 was about Cuba vs USA. It's just another mini cold war and it's no more likely to turn nuclear than that was. 

 

It'll all be resolved politically and economically. 

 

Thank whatever cosmic power is running the universe that someone else is frigging saying this. 

 

Especially the last line.

 

2 hours ago, MattP said:

I realise that, but at one point, him and his dynasty will realise the game is up, it might be now, it might be in 50 years, whenever that time is I just hope he doesn't have the nuclear arsenal to go out with a bang. I fear he will have.  This is person who has (supposedly) fed family members to dogs for disloyalty, we aren't talking about a normal person.

 

I hope I'm wrong but I don't see a peaceful end to this, whenever it is.

 

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

I tend to agree.  There will come a point when he realizes he is screwed, and what will he do then?  The guy is surrounded by people who fear for their lives - the ultimate yes men.  He likely doesn't have a trusted voice of reason holding him back.

What happens if/when that regime collapses is a conundrum, but at the same time Kim isn't the only powerful guy up there - there are others in the Party (how very 1984) who enjoy the high life too - though sometimes they do indeed fall out of favour. Those people aren't going to just stand by and either let Kim start a war that will be inevitably lost, or set off a nuke just because the established dynasty is collapsing. They would make a deal with the Chinese before either of those things happen, because they know that they would lose everything in either scenario anyway.

 

 

30 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Said the captain of the titanic.

I direct you to Finnegans words above.

 

10 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

So what happens if the live firing excercise SK are carrying out misfires and heads into NK, or god forboid one of the test missiles hits Japan or SK?  Are we sure that there would not be an escalation?  If a land war actually kicked off between SK and NK and SK are clearly winning after a week, then what?

NK shelled an SK island deliberately seven years ago and sank a warship killing scores of SK sailors. Neither of those things led to escalation, though if a missile did hit SK or Japan by accident it would certainly be worrying.

 

Regarding the land war scenario - if it played out in the way you suggest (and it likely would) and SK were about to win, I have no doubt the NK's would attempt to use nuclear or other WMD's they possess (which they do) against Seoul - if they still possessed them. This would then result in a catastrophic response from the US.

 

And everyone knows the above plays out exactly as detailed here, which is why it will never happen in the first place. Everyone loses.

Edited 4 September 2017 by leicsmac

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, Finnegan said:

It's just posturing. 

 

NK is China's pitbull and China is involved in a lot of wrangling with America and its allies at the moment as China is trying to colonise and reclaim more islands around the Pacific. 

 

NK upping their profile on nuclear armament gives China more political capital to manoeuvre with, it's no coincidence that the news BEFORE all of this was about US recon planes and ships winding up the Chinese or the Chinese arguing with Japan over Senkaku. 

 

What you're watching at the moment is no more about NK vs USA as 1962 was about Cuba vs USA. It's just another mini cold war and it's no more likely to turn nuclear than that was. 

 

It'll all be resolved politically and economically. 

What is actually your definition of this being "resolved" - if North Korea has acquired an H-Bomb that's eight times as big as the one that has hit Hiroshima I don't think that's a a situation that has been resolved.

 

For the first time now the whole World seems to be talking tough about this, the UN speeches were very interesting a few minutes ago and Russia, the USA and Japan all seemed to agree that this has now gone on long enough and it needs to be stopped. If China wants to try and step in front of the whole World then they'll probably be making a big mistake.

 

I admire you and @leicsmac faith here, but one country is sticking it's fingers up to the whole World and I get the feeling the whole "leave them be" attitude isn't a risk a lot of leaders are prepared to take anymore, although I realise talk is often cheap. Has a nation ever been this blaise in the face of such sanctions and international condemnation?

 

 

[Finnegan]

9 minutes ago, MattP said:

What is actually your definition of this being "resolved" - if North Korea has acquired an H-Bomb that's eight times as big as the one that has hit Hiroshima I don't think that's a a situation that has been resolved.

 

For the first time now the whole World seems to be talking tough about this, the UN speeches were very interesting a few minutes ago and Russia, the USA and Japan all seemed to agree that this has now gone on long enough and it needs to be stopped. If China wants to try and step in front of the whole World then they'll probably be making a big mistake.

 

I admire you and @leicsmac faith here, but one country is sticking it's fingers up to the whole World and I get the feeling the whole "leave them be" attitude isn't a risk a lot of leaders are prepared to take anymore, although I realise talk is often cheap. Has a nation ever been this blaise in the face of such sanctions and international condemnation?

 

 

 

But do they really want to nuke Japan, South Korea or the United States? Or do they just want to be perceived as a threat on behalf of their ally? 

 

China can't start threatening the world with its own armament, they want to be on good diplomatic terms with the major powers, they have billions invested in everything from our energy suppliers to our football teams. 

 

But if NK start threatening the rest of the world then not only do China not have to do it themselves but they gain an enormous amount of political currency by acting as the holder of Kim's leash. 

 

I mean where do you think all these rapid advances in their development are coming from if not north of the border? As I said, Cuba by any other name. 

 

Other than him being some kind of hilarious, psychotic, nutty boogey man - what motive is there for Kim to ACTUALLY nuke anyone? It's just suicide by MAD. 

 

Even if he was that legitimately insane, why would his generals let him do it? You'd have to believe the entire ruling echelon of North Korea wanted to commit a largely country wide suicide bombing just to leave a legacy which is paranoia on a ridiculous scale. 

Edited 4 September 2017 by Finnegan