Fox Ulike Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 4 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: There has been no suggestion at all that we'll get a free trade agreement with the US. It won't happen. Why wouldn't they? I think that they're still negotiating one with the EU. (TTIP?) Why not us too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 6 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: There has been no suggestion at all that we'll get a free trade agreement with the US. It won't happen. Well it's suggested in this article that was posted today, on the previous page. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41888823 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 6 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: There has been no suggestion at all that we'll get a free trade agreement with the US. It won't happen. This is correct if you ignore all the suggestions from people in both governments who have said they want a trade deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/measuringnationalwellbeing/july2016tojune2017#average-life-satisfaction-worthwhile-and-happiness-ratings-reach-highest-levels-since-2011 Life satisfaction and happiness at highest levels since 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rogstanley Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 1 minute ago, MattP said: This is correct if you ignore all the suggestions from people in both governments who have said they want a trade deal. 2 minutes ago, Webbo said: Well it's suggested in this article that was posted today, on the previous page. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41888823 Trade deal yes, free trade deal no. Although that article does mention a free trade deal so I'm wrong to say there has been no suggestion. Don't think it will happen though. Trump won't give anything away when he knows he's got the Tories by the balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 3 minutes ago, Webbo said: Trump doesn't set the farm prices. All that a govt can do is set the tariffs and the regulations that need to be followed. Businesses sell to businesses, nothing to do with the govt. If the things we buy become more expensive, businesses in this country will buy from elsewhere. If the government sets higher tariffs for foreign goods and seeks to lower tariffs for exports, for instance, those farmers will make more money and adjust their prices (and vote) accordingly. I think there's a link there, is there not? Of course the UK business can look elsewhere if they feel they're getting a bad deal - I'm saying that they need to be prepared to do so. I'm also saying that the US have no reason whatsoever to play nice regarding such tariff agreements and as they are a huge trading block and the UK likely has a certain reliance on trade with them things might get a little problematic, and I don't see why folks think they will look for a deal that is great for both sides when they have more muscle than the UK does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 3 minutes ago, MattP said: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/measuringnationalwellbeing/july2016tojune2017#average-life-satisfaction-worthwhile-and-happiness-ratings-reach-highest-levels-since-2011 Life satisfaction and happiness at highest levels since 2011. The ONS obviously don't read Foxestalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 3 minutes ago, leicsmac said: If the government sets higher tariffs for foreign goods and seeks to lower tariffs for exports, for instance, those farmers will make more money and adjust their prices (and vote) accordingly. I think there's a link there, is there not? Of course the UK business can look elsewhere if they feel they're getting a bad deal - I'm saying that they need to be prepared to do so. I'm also saying that the US have no reason whatsoever to play nice regarding such tariff agreements and as they are a huge trading block and the UK likely has a certain reliance on trade with them things might get a little problematic, and I don't see why folks think they will look for a deal that is great for both sides when they have more muscle than the UK does. The farmers will make more money by selling more stuff. With the economies of scale he might even be able to cut his prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 2 minutes ago, Webbo said: The ONS obviously don't read Foxestalk. They probably already get the Guardian delivered anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 Just now, Webbo said: The farmers will make more money by selling more stuff. Absolutely. With a higher profit per item because of the lower export tariffs that their government has obtained for them through a deal that the UK feels that they have to accept because they need the various items the US is exporting. I fear we're going round in circles here and debating pretty much the same point: the US can afford to walk away from a trade deal more than the UK can and so they will try to play rough, because they know they can still get the best deal for those same farmers etc by dealing with other nations or by pressuring the UK into accepting an inferior deal. Thus, they will apply this pressure and I hope the UK negotiating team is ready for that and to walk away if necessary. Again, I'm urging caution to those who think the US is going to be anything but confrontational in their approach with this administration in charge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rogstanley Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 13 minutes ago, MattP said: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/measuringnationalwellbeing/july2016tojune2017#average-life-satisfaction-worthwhile-and-happiness-ratings-reach-highest-levels-since-2011 Life satisfaction and happiness at highest levels since 2011. Life's good when you're binging on cheap finance. Let's see how that looks when people realise they actually have to pay back their loans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realist Guy In The Room Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 (edited) All trade will remain exactly the same as it does now. Immigration will remain exactly the same as it is now. Financial services will operate exactly the same as they do now. My prediction will be that we wont be a member, but everything will be exactly the same as it is now. If this process has taught us anything, its that people on both sides of the argument will believe exactly what they want to believe when told by the people they want to believe it off. After Brexit, everyone will be saying I told you so. Nobody will understand why. Edited 7 November 2017 by Realist Guy In The Room 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 5 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: Life's good when you're binging on cheap finance. Let's see how that looks when people realise they actually have to pay back their loans. Don't you support Corbyn's economic plans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosbehFox Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 1 hour ago, MattP said: Cheers, I was looking around to book a place in Birmingham for next week, this looks perfect. That 20z flat Iron steak looks stunning. Can recommend. They cook some of the meat in a gaucho fashion. Be warned though it's a taxi ride away from Birmingham city centre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rogstanley Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 5 minutes ago, Webbo said: Don't you support Corbyn's economic plans? If you're asking me whether I understand the difference between a government borrowing money to build a road that will return the investment many times over and an individual borrowing money to buy a flashy car then the answer is yes. The real question here is, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 15 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: Life's good when you're binging on cheap finance. Let's see how that looks when people realise they actually have to pay back their loans. Yes. It' always good until you have to pay it back isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: If you're asking me whether I understand the difference between a government borrowing money to build a road that will return the investment many times over and an individual borrowing money to buy a flashy car then the answer is yes. The real question here is, do you? You sound like a double glazing salesman. If government was as easy as borrow-invest-reap rewards-pay back no country in the World would ever suffer fiscal problems. People would be absolutely queuing up to buy gilts rather than withdrawing money from the nation. Unfortunately for Corbyn and you guys they also realise it isn't that easy. Edited 7 November 2017 by MattP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rogstanley Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, MattP said: You sound like a double glazing salesman. If government was as easy as borrow-invest-reap rewards-pay back no country in the World would ever suffer fiscal problems. People would be absolutely queuing up to buy gilts rather than withdrawing money from the nation. Unfortunately for Corbyn and you guys they also realise it isn't that easy. It's not always easy as sometimes you've got adequate infrastructure and you start suffering from diminishing returns. However, when long term lack of investment leads you to having the worst traffic congestion in Europe (source various news articles a couple of months back - labour just as at fault as the Tories by the way), and by extension probably the worst in the developed world (another thing we're currently bottom of the league at), and that kind if thing is leading you to have among the lowest productivity in the developed world (and another), then it's pretty much guaranteed that intelligently targeted investment in transport is going to deliver substantial returns. And that's just one example. To carry on your double glazing salesman analogy, it's not like considering whether or not to buy new double glazing when you've already got double glazing. It's not even like deciding whether to upgrade to double glazing from single glazing. It's like questioning whether you might like to install windows on a house that currently has wide open holes, with no protection at all. Of course windows are a good investment. That's why every other house on the street has them. We're the weirdos without windows wondering why it's so hard to keep the house warm. Edited 7 November 2017 by Rogstanley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Facecloth Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 Just listened to Boris Johnson's bumbling excuse for his comments on the woman in jail in Iran. Trying to make out his words were misconstrued. No Boris you outright said it you useless piece shit, just ****ing admit it, you made a mistake. Totally agree with Emily Thornberry, he needs to admit he's in a role where his words are very important, and what he says needs to spot on, and he's just not up to it. People often try to say that the bumbling posh idiot thing hides an intelligent man behind it, but I don't think so. I don't doubt he's well read, but he's not very clever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 5 hours ago, Strokes said: I’m not 100% certain Alf, I’ll link the radio interview later and you can have a listen. It sounded really interesting but I had a few external things distracting me from it, so I don’t want to say things that aren’t true. Cheers, Strokes. Apparently, Boris has been on the blower to the Iranian Foreign Minister, who has said that he's trying to arrange a humanitarian solution and that her detention is not linked to Boris' comments, which he's "clarified" (reversed). Seems that she's asked Boris to visit her and he's planning to visit Iran. https://news.google.com/news/video/tLGqSjghph4/dYNnwV_E43vq_zMZd7rr71RKCsbiM?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ned=uk Could be good timing for her as the Iranians might be quite amenable at the moment seeing as the UK and the other European nations have diverged from Trump over his withdrawal from the Iran/West deal over nukes, sanctions, trade etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 2 hours ago, Webbo said: The farmers will make more money by selling more stuff. With the economies of scale he might even be able to cut his prices. Farmers are limited by what they can grow. They can't sell more than everything they grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 Just now, toddybad said: Farmers are limited by what they can grow. They can't sell more than everything they grow. Chicken farmers can't build more chicken sheds? Farmers can't buy more land? Use more productive machinery? Grow better crops? No point growing rearing produce that they can't sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 3 minutes ago, Webbo said: Chicken farmers can't build more chicken sheds? Farmers can't buy more land? Use more productive machinery? Grow better crops? No point growing rearing produce that they can't sell. https://www.ft.com/content/cd9323b8-ad0e-11e7-beba-5521c713abf4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 Just now, toddybad said: https://www.ft.com/content/cd9323b8-ad0e-11e7-beba-5521c713abf4 Whatever it is it's behind a paywall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 7 November 2017 Share Posted 7 November 2017 6 minutes ago, Webbo said: Whatever it is it's behind a paywall. Financial Times SUBSCRIBE SIGN IN UK Agriculture UK farmers risk seeing incomes halve after Brexit Report by advisory body says agriculture sector must improve its productivity © FT Montage October 9, 2017 11:01 pm by Scheherazade Daneshkhu , Consumer Industries Editor Agricultural incomes could halve after Brexit unless the UK strikes a free-trade agreement with the EU, according to a new report that urges farmers to prepare for Britain’s departure from the bloc by boosting their productivity. The average UK farm is predicted to have its income fall from a current level of £38,000 per year to £15,000 should the UK unilaterally open its borders to low-cost food producers, said the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, an advisory body to British farmers. The AHDB, which is funded by a levy on farmers, also found that in a second scenario of the UK erecting protectionist trade barriers, farm incomes would fall to £20,000. However, if the UK succeeded in its objective of securing a free-trade deal with the EU, the AHDB said the average farm income could rise slightly to £41,000, because an increase in trading expenses would push up costs of imports and therefore the prices that farmers can charge for their products. Phil Bicknell, market intelligence director at the AHDB, said: “The extremes of putting up protectionist barriers or opening up trade unilaterally to low-cost competition from around the world is bad news for the viability and profitability of UK farms on average.” The AHDB predicted in its report to be published on Wednesday that dairy farmers’ incomes should rise after Brexit if there is a free-trade agreement with the EU or a protectionist regime involving World Trade Organisation tariffs, because increased costs could be passed on to consumers. However, dairy farmers’ incomes could drop sharply should the UK unilaterally open its borders to low-cost producers. Farmers dependent on exports — such as those rearing beef cattle and sheep — would see stable incomes after Brexit if the UK strikes a free-trade agreement with the EU. But their incomes would plunge were Britain to open its borders to overseas producers of its own accord or introduce a protectionist regime, said the AHDB. The AHDB report found that whatever the sub-sector, the most productive farms would be the most resilient in each of the three main Brexit scenarios outlined. The top 25 per cent of farms, based on their productivity, have an annual average income of £110,000. Mr Bicknell said: “Whichever scenario is chosen, higher-performing farms remain profitable in every sector. These farms are best placed to weather the negative impacts of any of the Brexit scenarios. They are capable of generating positive incomes when the lower-performance farms are making losses.” He urged farmers to improve productivity before the UK leaves the EU. The AHDB report said: “While details of the trade and policy framework are unclear, this should not stop farmers taking action to prepare for Brexit.” The report makes the assumption that agricultural subsidies would be cut by 75 per cent in the protectionist regime scenario — reflecting how farmers’ incomes would be supported by less competition — and reduced by 50 per cent in the unilateral liberalisation option. UK farmers are dependent on €3.1bn of annual payouts from the EU’s common agricultural policy, mostly through farm income support. The average British farmer depended on such subsidies for 86 per cent of their income in 2016, according to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. The government has guaranteed to make up for lost EU payments until 2020, but has not specified whether this money would be allocated in the same way as the bloc’s subsidies are currently disbursed. “In sectors where direct support accounts for a significant proportion of farm business income, this impact assessment shows the dramatic immediate impact of reduced support levels on business profitability,” said the AHDB report. Apart from subsidies, trade also has big implications for farm incomes, reflecting how the UK is a net importer of food and the EU is its biggest trading partner. Recommended Trump rejects May’s post-Brexit agriculture deal with EU Brexit and the challenges faced by farmers and rural communities Northern Ireland farmers call for five-year transition after Brexit The AHDB report said: “In areas such as dairy and pigs, the scenarios show that farmers may benefit from rising prices, reflecting the rising costs of trade. “In sectors where exports are significant, such as cereals and sheep meat, rising costs of trade for UK products into EU markets will mean downward pressure on domestic farmgate prices. In turn, this is reflected in farm business income levels.” The AHDB report is likely to raise concerns about the viability of many farms. The number of farms in England has fallen by more than 20 per cent over the past decade, according to the Campaign to Protect Rural England. The lobby group found that the smallest farms — those of 20 hectares or under — were most at risk. In a report published in August, the Campaign to Protect Rural England argued that diversity in the size of farms was crucial for a resilient and healthy sector. The number of farms in England fell from 132,400 in 2005 to 104,200 in 2015, according to Defra. Copyright The Financial Times Limited . All rights reserved. Please don't copy articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web. 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