Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[fuchsntf]

3 hours ago, Webbo said:

If you insist on talking about Germany if you look at this graph;

 

And compare it to this graph; https://www.statista.com/statistics/375203/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-germany/

 

You'll see that the UK out performed Germany from 2012 to 2015 and was only slightly behind in 2016.

But UK is still shit, and has shit Managers, no organisation sense, bad place to take ill.

Hasnt got one platform that works, that is benificial to any part of Mr or Mrs avg Normal life...

Plus you voted for something, without knowing why, or having any idea wh s t your next Steps will be..

You can, graph, pie chart yourself to death, you can Gdp Yourselves into the ground, just to make a total

Irrelevant point...Its  not if you notice improving the lot, of the man in the street at any level...

 

 

[Guest MattP]

18 minutes ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

Damn Chris Williamson’s a kulak. 

Never heard that word, love it.

[Strokes]

8 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

Bringing up the subject of wage growth isn't whataboutery. I'm happy to admit that Webbo is right, GDP growth has been marginally stronger in the UK than in Germany since 2010. I'm not trying to discredit his argument there at all. But obviously the wider subject being discussed here is the state of the British economy and for most people that manifests itself through wages, so pointing out that we have the worst wage growth in the developed world; that alongside an embattled Greece we aren't just the worst country in the developed world, but in fact cut adrift from the rest by a considerable margin, is a very relevant point of discussion.

So ok then let’s talk wage growth.

How are these figures being brought about? Assuming they are taking an average over a set period, we have taken a significant proportion of people off the jobseekers and into employment. That has been shown by the fact of significant rise in lower paid job creation, now that would bring down the stats a lot would it not?

It doesn’t necessarily mean you and I are a percentage worse off does it?

[Strokes]

37 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

Bringing up the subject of wage growth isn't whataboutery. I'm happy to admit that Webbo is right, GDP growth has been marginally stronger in the UK than in Germany since 2010. I'm not trying to discredit his argument there at all. But obviously the wider subject being discussed here is the state of the British economy and for most people that manifests itself through wages, so pointing out that we have the worst wage growth in the developed world; that alongside an embattled Greece we aren't just the worst country in the developed world, but in fact cut adrift from the rest by a considerable margin, is a very relevant point of discussion.

FYI I know you don’t think GDP measures the success of a government but how about this one (howaboutism). From 2010-2016 the uk created more jobs than the rest of the EU combined, even if that’s low paid employment, that’s pretty impressive.

 

edit, just so I’m clear and avoiding hit backs. By combined I mean if one country loses jobs, that takes away from the ones that have created jobs. It’s talking about the EU as a whole minus the UK.

Edited 15 January 2018 by Strokes

[Rogstanley]

23 minutes ago, Strokes said:

So ok then let’s talk wage growth.

How are these figures being brought about? Assuming they are taking an average over a set period, we have taken a significant proportion of people off the jobseekers and into employment. That has been shown by the fact of significant rise in lower paid job creation, now that would bring down the stats a lot would it not?

It doesn’t necessarily mean you and I are a percentage worse off does it?

Been through this loads of times with kopfkino and others.

 

Wages are down across range of sectors, some of which specialist in nature. Wages are down across all but the very highest percentiles, which again includes all sorts of specialist and professional jobs. So yes if as a country we are producing very low skilled work (itself a bad thing) that would bring down the average (a bad thing) but actually wages are down for almost everyone. 

 

In addition, to use Germany as an example again, unemployment in Germany is lower than the uk yet their wages have grown significantly while ours have fallen. There are many countries which have low unemployment and wage growth, it’s normal for that to be the case.

[Rogstanley]

12 minutes ago, Strokes said:

FYI I know you don’t think GDP measures the success of a government but how about this one (howaboutism). From 2010-2016 the uk created more jobs than the rest of the EU combined, even if that’s low paid employment, that’s pretty impressive.

That wasn’t really jobs being created, here:

 

https://fullfact.org/europe/has-uk-created-more-jobs-rest-eu-combined/

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, Strokes said:

So ok then let’s talk wage growth.

How are these figures being brought about? Assuming they are taking an average over a set period, we have taken a significant proportion of people off the jobseekers and into employment. That has been shown by the fact of significant rise in lower paid job creation, now that would bring down the stats a lot would it not?

It doesn’t necessarily mean you and I are a percentage worse off does it?

You might have noticed that virtually the entire public sector has had years of first no rises and then more years of below inflation rises. Millions of people with less to spend in real terms, year on year, month on month. 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, Strokes said:

FYI I know you don’t think GDP measures the success of a government but how about this one (howaboutism). From 2010-2016 the uk created more jobs than the rest of the EU combined, even if that’s low paid employment, that’s pretty impressive.

 

edit, just so I’m clear and avoiding hit backs. By combined I mean if one country loses jobs, that takes away from the ones that have created jobs. It’s talking about the EU as a whole minus the UK.

Until 2016 pretty much the entire increase in employment was down to self employment and part time/zero hours contracts. In 2016 full time contracted jobs joined the party. I've put up the graphs for this in the past but aren't looking for them again.

Edited 15 January 2018 by Guest

[Guest]

The great man speaks

 

 

 

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

Been through this loads of times with kopfkino and others.

 

Wages are down across range of sectors, some of which specialist in nature. Wages are down across all but the very highest percentiles, which again includes all sorts of specialist and professional jobs. So yes if as a country we are producing very low skilled work (itself a bad thing) that would bring down the average (a bad thing) but actually wages are down for almost everyone. 

 

In addition, to use Germany as an example again, unemployment in Germany is lower than the uk yet their wages have grown significantly while ours have fallen. There are many countries which have low unemployment and wage growth, it’s normal for that to be the case.

Maybe but with more in employment as opposed to unemployment, they should be better off and the country better off too.

Yes I remember those percentiles (it include in work benefits too iirc?) and it did show if you were a couple on full time minimum wage without children you would be better off but not so if you had children or were part time etc. Maybe we just need to tweak the benefits for the lowest paid with children. We shouldn’t care too much about people on 40k plus though, they have more than enough right?

 

Here are the EU unemployment statistics, since you bought it up. Doing well compared to most of the EU.

	Unemployment rate
Czech Republic	2.7%
Malta	3.5%
Germany	3.6%
Hungary*	4.1%
Great Britain**	4.2%
Netherlands	4.5%
Poland	4.6%
Romania	4.9%
Austria	5.4%
Denmark	5.6%
Luxembourg	5.7%
Estonia*	5.8%
Ireland	6%
Bulgaria	6.1%
Slovenia	6.2%
Sweden	6.7%
Belgium	6.9%
Slowakia	7%
Lithuania	7.1%
EU	7.4%
Latvia	8.2%
Portugal	8.5%
Finland	8.7%
Euro area	8.8%
France	9.4%
Cyprus	10.2%
Croatia	10.5%
Italy	11.1%
Spain	16.7%
Greece**	20.6%

[Strokes]

8 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

That wasn’t really jobs being created, here:

 

https://fullfact.org/europe/has-uk-created-more-jobs-rest-eu-combined/

Fair enough, fairly close then by the looks of it.

to the same period in 2015, the UK's growth comes in at just under two million, with the EU's combined growth just over.

[Strokes]

6 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Until 2016 pretty much the entire increase in employment was down to self employment and zero hours contracts. In 2016 full time contracted jobs joined the party. I've put up the graphs for this in the past but aren't looking for them again.

That’s what I’m saying, New jobs being created at lower than the existing average wage is bringing the average wage down. Thus distorting the figures to make it look like we are having a huge paycut when in fact it’s more like stagnation. (Which isn’t great but it’s not terrible)

[Guest]

Just now, Strokes said:

That’s what I’m saying, New jobs being created at lower than the existing average wage is bringing the average wage down. Thus distorting the figures to make it look like we are having a huge paycut when in fact it’s more like stagnation. (Which isn’t great but it’s not terrible)

Crap jobs being created isn't good.

Unless you know anybody getting 3% pay rise most people's wages are now falling too. Certainly that's what I see in the public sector....

 

 

[Strokes]

Just now, toddybad said:

Crap jobs being created isn't good.

Unless you know anybody getting 3% pay rise most people's wages are now falling too. Certainly that's what I see in the public sector....

 

 

I’ve had over 15% payrise in the last year, admittedly I did have to move companies to get it but still, I’ve seen plenty do the same in my industry. The private sector has had a tough time and I’ve said before I do think it’s time to unleash the shackles over it and put it inline or above inflation.

I don’t always agree with every Tory policy, just like you don’t with Labour but by and large on the economy, I don’t think they’ve done bad. 

[Rogstanley]

17 minutes ago, toddybad said:

The great man speaks

 

 

 

What a legend. The way he says “it’s time we took back control” is brilliant.

[Webbo]

 

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, Strokes said:

I’ve had over 15% payrise in the last year, admittedly I did have to move companies to get it but still, I’ve seen plenty do the same in my industry. The private sector has had a tough time and I’ve said before I do think it’s time to unleash the shackles over it and put it inline or above inflation.

I don’t always agree with every Tory policy, just like you don’t with Labour but by and large on the economy, I don’t think they’ve done bad. 

Moving jobs isn't really a pay rise is it?

Though I would be interested in what sort of pay rises the private sector does get?

Assume you meant public sector in the middle. 

 

Putting aside party politics for a moment, the fact employment is where it is cannot realistically be moaned about. Growth has been sluggish across the western world over the last few years and we've been in line with that, in fact a little ahead until the Brexit vote. If you point at those things as favorable to the government then I won't argue to hard.

 

The issue for me, though, is about real lives. Macro economic statistics are one thing but what is people's lives experience? Now you may have had a good time but generally you look at how many people in our country are struggling.

 

Personal debt up, wages falling for the longest period since Napoleonic times. Increasing homelessness, less support available through cuts to council budgets/sure start. NHS crisis brought about by refusal to give them what they need. Benefits and tax credits cut by more than the raise in personal tax allowance makes up for. 

 

Add to that privatisation of schools and increasing privatisation on health. Councils absolutely on their knees.

 

Then there's ideology. I don't believe - and there's a famous quote about not cutting out of recession - that cutting out of what is a depression in living standards terms can possibly work and 7 years of trying is proving me right at this point. 

 

You might be able to find some comparative data, or some statistics that support one or two outcomes, but the vast majority of tory policy has hurt ordinary people and helped the tiny minority that always benefit from tory rule. That is fact. Numerous independent reviews have concluded that austerity has hit the poorest hardest.

 

It's time for something different.

 

 

[Strokes]

8 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Moving jobs isn't really a pay rise is it?

Though I would be interested in what sort of pay rises the private sector does get?

Assume you meant public sector in the middle. 

Yes you’re right I meant public, sorry.

 

8 minutes ago, toddybad said:

 

Putting aside party politics for a moment, the fact employment is where it is cannot realistically be moaned about. Growth has been sluggish across the western world over the last few years and we've been in line with that, in fact a little ahead until the Brexit vote. If you point at those things as favorable to the government then I won't argue to hard.

 

The issue for me, though, is about real lives. Macro economic statistics are one thing but what is people's lives experience? Now you may have had a good time but generally you look at how many people in our country are struggling.

 

Personal debt up, wages falling for the longest period since Napoleonic times. Increasing homelessness, less support available through cuts to council budgets/sure start. NHS crisis brought about by refusal to give them what they need. Benefits and tax credits cut by more than the raise in personal tax allowance makes up for. 

 

Add to that privatisation of schools and increasing privatisation on health. Councils absolutely on their knees.

 

Then there's ideology. I don't believe - and there's a famous quote about not cutting out of recession - that cutting out of what is a depression in living standards terms can possibly work and 7 years of trying is proving me right at this point. 

 

You might be able to find some comparative data, or some statistics that support one or two outcomes, but the vast majority of tory policy has hurt ordinary people and helped the tiny minority that always benefit from tory rule. That is fact. Numerous independent reviews have concluded that austerity has hit the poorest hardest.

 

It's time for something different.

 

 

It’s hard to argue on the social side of things, which is the reason I didn’t vote in the last election. If I could have been certain on labour’s commitment to brexit, I would have voted for them.

 

[Sharpe's Fox]

1 hour ago, toddybad said:

The great man speaks

 

 

 

C  O  L  L  E  C  T  I  V  I  S  M 

O

L

L

E

C

T

I

V

I

S

M

Edited 15 January 2018 by Sharpe's Fox

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Webbo said:

 

What's your point? The last labour government might as well have worn blue rosettes. And they weren't issuing profit warnings when they were still giving them contracts. You're clutching at straws a bit there.

Edited 15 January 2018 by Guest

[Buce]

 

Boris Johnson's answer to the crisis in the NHS? Give it the money we will save when we leave the EU...

 

You couldn't make it up.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42698981

[Guest]

May faces tougher transition stance from EU amid Norway pressure

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/norway-may-rip-up-eu-deal-over-uk-brexit-demands?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

So the easy deal vote leave promised won't be materialing. I cannot believe the self inflicted pain we're about to cause ourselves.

[Strokes]

14 minutes ago, toddybad said:

May faces tougher transition stance from EU amid Norway pressure

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/norway-may-rip-up-eu-deal-over-uk-brexit-demands?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

So the easy deal vote leave promised won't be materialing. I cannot believe the self inflicted pain we're about to cause ourselves.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Strokes said:

What does that mean?

[Guest]

Quarter of UK's poorest households are getting deeper in debt, IFS warns

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jan/16/quarter-of-uks-poorest-households-are-getting-deeper-in-debt-ifs-warns?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard