Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Charl91]

13 minutes ago, The Floyd said:

'Crime' is vague. I'd suggest that violent crime is most relevant to safety, and that is on the rise in every pillar of the UK.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/violent-crime-rise-every-corner-country-figures-suggest/amp/

Taken from the ONS

 

Quote

"The estimated annual number of CSEW violent crime incidents has fallen from its 1995 peak of 3.8 million to 1.3 million. However, there was no statistically significant change compared with the previous year’s survey.

 

Improvements in crime recording processes by the police are thought to be the main driver of a 27% rise in the number of violence against the person offences recorded by the police in the year ending March 2016 compared with the previous year.

 

The 106,098 sexual offences recorded by the police was the highest figure recorded since the introduction of the National Crime Recording Standard in 2002. As well as improvements in recording practices, this is thought to reflect a greater willingness of victims to come forward to report such crimes, including non-recent victims."

 

 

 

Even if we take it at face value, and accept that there has been a rise in violent crime this year, I'm sure Thracian's reminiscence of the much safer bygone days was not in reference to 2015.

[The Floyd]

10 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

Taken from the ONS

 

 

 

Even if we take it at face value, and accept that there has been a rise in violent crime this year, I'm sure Thracian's reminiscence of the much safer bygone days was not in reference to 2015.

If we're talking about an apparent correlation between violent crime and recent arrivals from Syria/Calais then it probably wasn't in reference to 1995 either. 

[Charl91]

1 minute ago, The Floyd said:

If we're talking about an apparent correlation between violent crime and recent arrivals from Syria/Calais then it probably wasn't in reference to 1995 either. 

 

Why, are Syrian/Calais immigrants causing violent crime that appears on a daily basis in the Leicester Mercury?

[The Floyd]

1 minute ago, Charl91 said:

 

Why, are Syrian/Calais immigrants causing violent crime that appears on a daily basis in the Leicester Mercury?

I wouldn't know as I wasn't the person to suggest so, hence my use of 'apparent correlation'. I don't see why it isn't feasible that recent immigrants could be committing violent crimes within Leicestershire though.

[Charl91]

1 minute ago, The Floyd said:

I wouldn't know as I wasn't the person to suggest so, hence my use of 'apparent correlation'. I don't see why it isn't feasible that recent immigrants could be committing violent crimes within Leicestershire though.

 

Because Leicester have barely taken any refugees, so the likelihood that they're causing the reported crimes on a "daily basis" is relatively slim? Because it's normally nice to have evidence before making baseless assertions that demonise immigrants?

 

The Brexit vote didn't happen 'til 2016. I guess that must be what caused the rise in violent crime! Or maybe it correlates with a rise in Labour supporters? Or an increase in the number of Leicester City fans? The dropped value of the pound? The decrease in the number of people buying custard creams?

 

You can make whatever connections you like, if you try hard enough. It's always interesting to see the mental gymnastics that people undertake to come up with theories that fit with their own world view.

 

[The Floyd]

Just now, Charl91 said:

 

Because Leicester have barely taken any refugees, so the likelihood that they're causing the reported crimes on a "daily basis" is relatively slim? Because it's normally nice to have evidence before making baseless assertions that demonise immigrants?

 

The Brexit vote didn't happen 'til 2016. I guess that must be what caused the rise in violent crime! Or maybe it correlates with a rise in Labour supporters? Or an increase in the number of Leicester City fans? The dropped value of the pound? The decrease in the number of people buying custard creams?

 

You can make whatever connections you like, if you try hard enough. It's always interesting to see the mental gymnastics that people undertake to come up with theories that fit with their own world view.

 

If you tried reading my posts then you could have saved yourself the sarcastic (and rather odd) pedantry. Nothing I have said has been in agreement with Thracian's posts nor anyone else. 

 

You list 'Leicester' as if it were its own self-governing country. Immigrants are free to move to the city of their choosing once in the country. To try and pretend either of us know the figure of recent immigrants living within Leicestershire would be almost entirely baseless. Especially when you consider that a proportion will be illegal immigrants or will have outstayed their visa - take the 39 found in a Leicester based factory earlier this year.

 

I'm unsure as to why you're trying to accuse me of assuming correlation = causation, I'll take that as a desperate attempt to inject some humour into your post. I will also point out, for the second time, that I said 'apparent correlation'.

 

You seem to have undertaken some mental gymnastics of your own to deliver a plethora of false assumptions.

[Strokes]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40540340

 

USA UK trade deal could happen very quickly, a bit of light for us brexiteers.

[Charl91]

21 minutes ago, The Floyd said:

If you tried reading my posts then you could have saved yourself the sarcastic (and rather odd) pedantry. Nothing I have said has been in agreement with Thracian's posts nor anyone else. 

 

You list 'Leicester' as if it were its own self-governing country. Immigrants are free to move to the city of their choosing once in the country. To try and pretend either of us know the figure of recent immigrants living within Leicestershire would be almost entirely baseless. Especially when you consider that a proportion will be illegal immigrants or will have outstayed their visa - take the 39 found in a Leicester based factory earlier this year.

 

I'm unsure as to why you're trying to accuse me of assuming correlation = causation, I'll take that as a desperate attempt to inject some humour into your post. I will also point out, for the second time, that I said 'apparent correlation'.

 

You seem to have undertaken some mental gymnastics of your own to deliver a plethora of false assumptions.

 

Enlighten me then, what are you saying? Because I'm not quite sure what point you're trying to make.

 

You jumped in defense of Thracians post where he says Leicester is "not as safe is it used to be"; unless he's referring to last year, and last year only (and granted, that's open to interpretation), then it's a patently incorrect assertion. You also then keep saying that you're aware that correlation doesn't necessarily equal causation, but then proceed regardless with your line about immigrants potentially causing the increase in comment.

 

You're right that it is "feasible" that immigrants could possibly have caused this increase in crime this year (after having dropped for many previous years..), but no more feasible than hundreds of other possibilities. So why focus on that one possibility? When speculating on such things, it's usually good to have some form of evidence, rather than saying "well, it could be the case, because it fits with my own view on immigration...".

Edited 8 July 2017 by Charl91

[Sharpe's Fox]

2 minutes ago, Strokes said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40540340

 

USA UK trade deal could happen very quickly, a bit of light for us brexiteers.

Will start dipping my roast chicken in the local swimming pool in anticipation for that chlorine washed meat yummy

[The Floyd]

2 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

 

Enlighten me then, what are you saying? Because I'm not quite sure what point you're trying to make.

 

You jumped in defense of Thracians post where he says Leicester is "not as safe is it used to be"; unless he's referring to last year, and last year only (and granted, that's open to interpretation), then it's a patently incorrect assertion. You also then keep saying that you're aware that correlation doesn't necessarily equal causation, but then proceed regardless with your line about immigrants potentially causing the increase in comment.

 

You're right that it is "feasible" that immigrants could possibly have caused this increase in crime this year (after having dropped for many previous years..), but no more feasible than hundreds of other possibilities. So why focus on that one possibility? When speculating on such things, it's usually good to have some form of evidence, rather than saying "well, it could be the case, because it fits with my own view on immigration...".

My initial post wasn't in admiration or defence of Thracian's viewpoint, it was in disagreement with you re crime statistics and 'crime' being a broad term. 

 

The posts prior to Thracian's mentioned both Calais and Syria. I was, and have been, trying to suggest that if someone is trying to connect the two, then recent crime statistics would surely be most relevant. 

 

I mentioned that correlation doesn't equal causation once, I don't 'keep' saying it. Could you point out where I've suggested immigrants are responsible for the increase? 

 

Again, please re-read my posts, I've not once proposed that immigrants commit violent crime on a daily basis. You appear to be adamant on trying to make me defend an argument that I've not once said I believe in.

 

This is both incredibly circular and tiresome and I fear that you may have mistaken my rebuttal of your original post as agreement with another poster's opinion. 

[Strokes]

26 minutes ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

Will start dipping my roast chicken in the local swimming pool in anticipation for that chlorine washed meat yummy

TBH I much prefer all the eu approved horse meat, that we were obliviously eating a few years back, but I can get on board with chlorine chicken for the good of the country.

[Innovindil]

Just now, Strokes said:

TBH I much prefer all the eu approved horse meat, that we were obliviously eating a few years back, but I can get on board with chlorine chicken for the good of the country.

What a patriot 

[Charl91]

1 minute ago, The Floyd said:

 

 

Could you point out where I've suggested immigrants are responsible for the increase? 

 

We were talking about an increase in violent crime, and you responded with...
 

Quote

I wouldn't know as I wasn't the person to suggest so, hence my use of 'apparent correlation'. I don't see why it isn't feasible that recent immigrants could be committing violent crimes within Leicestershire though.

 

 

So either it was a suggestion that the increase could be caused by immigration, or it was just a bit of a non-sequitur. But fair enough, this argument is becoming rather pointless.

[Buce]

40 minutes ago, Strokes said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40540340

 

USA UK trade deal could happen very quickly, a bit of light for us brexiteers.

 

Just Trump talking through his arse again: (see what I did there)

 

However, Sir Simon Fraser, a former diplomat who served as a permanent under-secretary at the Foreign Office, cast doubt on how soon any trade deal could be reached.

"The point is we can't negotiate with them or anyone else until we've left the European Union," he said.

"And the Americans and others will not negotiate with us until they know what our relationship with the EU is going to be, because the access we have in Europe is hugely important for the advantages that they can get from their relations with us."

Edited 8 July 2017 by Buce

[Alf Bentley]

14 minutes ago, Strokes said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40540340

 

USA UK trade deal could happen very quickly, a bit of light for us brexiteers.

 

As I understand it, while preliminary discussions can take place now, no such trade deal could be finalised and implemented until after we've left the EU - so at least March 2019.

 

There's a lot of talk about a transitional period after that. I've no idea whether it would be possible for the UK to sign or implement new trade deals during any transitional period.

I can't imagine the EU27 would be keen to agree to that, but it would be an item for negotiation, I suppose, and would depend on our precise status during any transitional period.

 

Most trade deals take many years to negotiate, given the complexities involved in catering for multiple economic/industrial sectors and interests. So, for a deal to happen "very quickly" after March 2019, I assume that the UK would have to absolutely capitulate to every US demand you could imagine. There's no reason for an economic superpower like the US to offer a medium-sized nation like us a great deal, is there? There's a clue in Trump's campaign slogan: "America First".

 

That's always assuming that Trump is still in the White House. Impeachment before 2020 is certainly not unthinkable - and by 2020 (just a year after we're due to leave the EU and when we might still be transitioning out) he'll presumably be focused on winning a second term.

 

I'm sure a US-UK trade deal is possible in the medium-term (though mainly on US terms, I presume) but I reckon you'd get long odds on such a deal happening by 2019-20. Trying to negotiate a decent deal with the EU seems much more important, not least as almost 50% of our trade is with the EU (45% of exports, 53% of imports, I think) v. about 15% with the USA (?).

 

If the idea of such a trade deal is to export to the US in greater volume or more profitably, I wonder which goods and services we'd be able to export to the US that they wouldn't be able to produce/deliver/import more cheaply themselves? 

[Strokes]

6 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Just Trump talking through his arse again: (see what I did there)

 

However, Sir Simon Fraser, a former diplomat who served as a permanent under-secretary at the Foreign Office, cast doubt on how soon any trade deal could be reached.

"The point is we can't negotiate with them or anyone else until we've left the European Union," he said.

"And the Americans and others will not negotiate with us until they know what our relationship with the EU is going to be, because the access we have in Europe is hugely important for the advantages that they can get from their relations with us."

We all know we can't negotiate until brexit is finalised buce but if he wants to sit down and negotiate soon after, then that proves we do have something to offer.

[Thracian]

1 hour ago, Charl91 said:

Taken from the ONS

 

 

 

Even if we take it at face value, and accept that there has been a rise in violent crime this year, I'm sure Thracian's reminiscence of the much safer bygone days was not in reference to 2015.

 

39 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

 

Because Leicester have barely taken any refugees, so the likelihood that they're causing the reported crimes on a "daily basis" is relatively slim? Because it's normally nice to have evidence before making baseless assertions that demonise immigrants?

 

The Brexit vote didn't happen 'til 2016. I guess that must be what caused the rise in violent crime! Or maybe it correlates with a rise in Labour supporters? Or an increase in the numb

The 106,098 sexual offences recorded by the police was the highest figure recorded since the introduction of the National Crime Recording Standard in 2002. As well as improvements in recording practices, this is thought to reflect a greater willingness of victims to come forward to report such crimes, including non-recent victims."

 

er of Leicester City fans? The dropped value of the pound? The decrease in the number of people buying custard creams?

 

You can make whatever connections you like, if you try hard enough. It's always interesting to see the mental gymnastics that people undertake to come up with theories that fit with their own world view.

 

The 106,098 sexual offences recorded by the police was the highest figure recorded since the introduction of the National Crime Recording Standard in 2002. As well as improvements in recording practices, this is thought to reflect a greater willingness of victims to come forward to report such crimes, including non-recent victims."

 

Just to take this aspect, this appalling "highest figure" of sexual offences since 2002 is just the tip of the iceberg and if anyone truly believes the figure is not a massive understatement is closing their eyes in denial. Most sex slaves are either unable to report crime, scared silly or have become too desperate or reliant to say a word about offences against them...even if anyone would listen which clearly hasn't always been the case in recent years for reasons not always adequately explained. 

 

And when I talked about the world of my youth being safer I was not just talking about recorded crime figures but being able to leave your door open, to believe  that private information would be kept that way by those in authority, to expect that I could walk anywhere in Leicester, even late at night, but it's all gone now and there are several parts of the town now that I'd not say were safe at any time for anyone's daughter.  

 

Here's just a few home truths:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/18/police-dismiss-one-in-four-sex-crimes-watchdog

 

Can you rely on any government figures? Well this doesn't offer any confidence and how many crimes and threats to our safety would any estimate of illegal immigrants amount to, based on over a million people? How would they legally earn their keep? 

 

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/key-topics/illegal-immigration

- 

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/stis-rise-in-london-and-hackney-has-worst-rate-in-uk-for-young-people-with-chlamydia-10341335.html

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/gonorrhoea-syphilis-sti-statistics-uk-sexual-health-crisis-warning-a7120761.html

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/knife-crime-14-gang-warfare-becoming-embedded-culture/

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-37412508

 

 

None of the above relates to petty crime which is unhidden and going on all around us every day with not a chance of anyone becoming a crime statistic. And yes I could give chapter and verse but I won't. Two years back an investigator I knew, said he didn't want the offences he was investigating to go to court because of the likely impact on his life. He was seriously concerned.

 

Murders and serious crime was a rarity in Leicester when I was a teenager but there's hardly a day now without something serious. Even in broad daylight.  

 

Yet, while we're spending increasing millions on making our streets safe we still increasing our population by hundreds of thousands each year and still so clearly importing people who are a serious threat. The cry goes up for more jobs and more funds but no-one in authority points with any sincerity to the idea of reducing pressures on our law enforcers, our social services, our schools, our doctors and our generally overburdened infrastructure by reducing demand until the systems can cope.

 

The hypocrisy is pitiful.           

 

          

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Charl91]

12 minutes ago, Thracian said:

 

Stuff

 

         

As I said before, this is just nostalgia and confirmation bias. There's so much wrong with this, that I don't even know where to begin. I won't try to argue, because most of your opinion isn't grounded in facts, but rather "I felt happier when I was younger" and "I met this bloke once, who...". No amount of facts or statistics are going to change your mind.

 

All I'll say is this country is pretty much as safe as it ever has been. Maybe it's just the media that's changed.

Edited 8 July 2017 by Charl91

[Strokes]

8 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

As I understand it, while preliminary discussions can take place now, no such trade deal could be finalised and implemented until after we've left the EU - so at least March 2019.

 

There's a lot of talk about a transitional period after that. I've no idea whether it would be possible for the UK to sign or implement new trade deals during any transitional period.

I can't imagine the EU27 would be keen to agree to that, but it would be an item for negotiation, I suppose, and would depend on our precise status during any transitional period.

 

Most trade deals take many years to negotiate, given the complexities involved in catering for multiple economic/industrial sectors and interests. So, for a deal to happen "very quickly" after March 2019, I assume that the UK would have to absolutely capitulate to every US demand you could imagine. There's no reason for an economic superpower like the US to offer a medium-sized nation like us a great deal, is there? There's a clue in Trump's campaign slogan: "America First".

 

That's always assuming that Trump is still in the White House. Impeachment before 2020 is certainly not unthinkable - and by 2020 (just a year after we're due to leave the EU and when we might still be transitioning out) he'll presumably be focused on winning a second term.

 

I'm sure a US-UK trade deal is possible in the medium-term (though mainly on US terms, I presume) but I reckon you'd get long odds on such a deal happening by 2019-20. Trying to negotiate a decent deal with the EU seems much more important, not least as almost 50% of our trade is with the EU (45% of exports, 53% of imports, I think) v. about 15% with the USA (?).

 

If the idea of such a trade deal is to export to the US in greater volume or more profitably, I wonder which goods and services we'd be able to export to the US that they wouldn't be able to produce/deliver/import more cheaply themselves? 

We will have to wait and see on that I guess, but I don't see why we can't negotiate a mutually good deal. Why does it have to favour one more than the other? I can see that it will always benefit one more but the terms should always be equal.

Getting a trade deal with the US could be beneficial if we wish to start manufacturing on a large scale again, as people have pointed out we need raw materials to be competitive and that could well be a route for them. It's hard to speculate how much we can offer them and them is until we know on what terms we will be trading with the EU but it doesn't feel like we will have to be quite so isolated now. Which for me seems to be a positive.

[Thracian]

Just now, Charl91 said:

As I said before, this is just nostalgia and confirmation bias. There's so much wrong with this, that I don't even know where to begin. I won't try to argue, because most of your opinion isn't grounded in facts, but rather "I felt happier when I was younger" and "I met this bloke once, who...".

 

All I'll say is this country is pretty much as safe as it ever has been. Maybe it's just the media that's changed.

 

Nostalgia doesn't come into it. The country is much less safe and despite the increasing millions spent on trying to combat that fact.     

[Charl91]

2 minutes ago, Thracian said:

 

Nostalgia doesn't come into it. The country is much less safe and despite the increasing millions spent on trying to combat that fact.     

 

Statistically evidence suggest otherwise. And if you're going to refute statistics, then there's not much else I can do to argue the fact.

[Thracian]

1 hour ago, Charl91 said:

 

Enlighten me then, what are you saying? Because I'm not quite sure what point you're trying to make.

 

You jumped in defense of Thracians post where he says Leicester is "not as safe is it used to be"; unless he's referring to last year, and last year only (and granted, that's open to interpretation, then it's a patently incorrect assertion. You also then keep saying that you're aware that correlation doesn't necessarily equal causation, but then proceed regardless with your line about immigrants potentially causing the increase in comment.

 

You're right that it is "feasible" that immigrants could possibly have caused this increase in crime this year (after having dropped for many previous years..), but no more feasible than hundreds of other possibilities. So why focus on that one possibility? When speculating on such things, it's usually good to have some form of evidence, rather than saying "well, it could be the case, because it fits with my own view on immigration...".

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2175798/A-fifth-suspected-rapists-murderers-Britain-immigrants.html

 

 

[Strokes]

There was me thinking we had overnight become a massive racist nation that is full of hate crime. Im glad to see we are still a great place to be despite brexit.

[Buce]

10 minutes ago, Strokes said:

There was me thinking we had overnight become a massive racist nation that is full of hate crime. Im glad to see we are still a great place to be despite brexit.

 

I'm not quite sure what point you're making here, Strokes, but Brexit hasn't happened yet.

[Thracian]

15 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

 

Statistically evidence suggest otherwise. And if you're going to refute statistics, then there's not much else I can do to argue the fact.

I've given reasons why I'm sceptical or downright disbelieving of certain stats, including the many thousands of sexual crime allegations which the authorities admitted to not investigating. But if you've information to suggest the sexual crime figures or any others are convincing and can be porplerly relied on by all means fire away (metaphorically, of course).