Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[fuchsntf]

On 21/10/2018 at 12:48, Buce said:

 

I hate to be pedantic but 'Quisling' wasn't coined as a term until 1940, so wouldn't have been used in 1920s Russia.

 

I'll get mi coat.

Your turncoat... I presume..

[Guest MattP]

Lot of truth in that article @Alf Bentley - I'm not in the camp but most of my Brexit supporting mates couldn't care less about Northern Ireland and would be happy to Scotland go independent as well.

[fuchsntf]

23 hours ago, lifted*fox said:

I think it's quite clear that our government are the delusional ones who've been going back to the EU with the same requests for the last two years whilst they've repeatedly told us we can't pick and choose what we get as a non-member.

 

It's very simple - EU member you get the EU benefits. Non-EU member, you don't; and you can't have a bit of free trade and no movement, etc. which is exactly the brick wall that dickheads like Raab have been banging their head against from the off. 

 

There's a bit of pie in the sky but this ain't it. It's clear as day to see. 

 

It's so clear,that people but worse still Honourable British Politicians see or create  their own mirages!!

[fuchsntf]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

Lot of truth in that article @Alf Bentley - I'm not in the camp but most of my Brexit supporting mates couldn't care less about Northern Ireland and would be happy to Scotland go independent as well.

But you are/willing to take the benefits that they fed/feed  to create our today's standards from our N.Irish,Scottish neighbours!!!

ignorance is never a virtue in Politics...

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, fuchsntf said:

But you are/willing to take the benefits that they fed/feed  to create our today's standards from our N.Irish,Scottish neighbours!!!

ignorance is never a virtue in Politics...

Benefits? We send them (and Wales) money in the form of the Barnett formula.

 

Scotland was running a higher deficit to GDP than Greece a few years back.

[Guest MattP]

Weekend polls.

 

 

 

[fuchsntf]

12 minutes ago, MattP said:

Benefits? We send them (and Wales) money in the form of the Barnett formula.

 

Scotland was running a higher deficit to GDP than Greece a few years back.

It's not just about money,but people's within the society,and the small handshakes...

Amazing how the big daddies children,conveniently forget the paths of life...

forget those headline formulas...contracts schooled and p ostured over in Universities and colleges.

there are big and small exchanges of skills,and people's to fill English/Brig local companies,exchange and interlocking

of culture..Coal/steal/hosiery...modern grahics,IT...!!!

What are your origins,your family ties...!!!  Because there isn't an English peoples,or government!!? without the input of

those so quaint your idea of useless domains....

[fuchsntf]

On 21/10/2018 at 17:22, davieG said:

Whether he’s being realistic or not have you not heard of brinkmanship with regards to negotiating.

 

Maybe the EU are the pathetic ones, who knows? No one but those very close to the negotiators.

 

One thing you can say about the whole brexit situation there’s a whole lot of pie in the sky speculating about what will or won’t happen.

 

 

Pies....there's even an EU-ruling on that!!!

 

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

Lot of truth in that article @Alf Bentley - I'm not in the camp but most of my Brexit supporting mates couldn't care less about Northern Ireland and would be happy to Scotland go independent as well.

 

I genuinely hate the idea of the UK splitting up. I've never lived in Scotland, Ireland or Wales, only in England (and brief stints further afield) but am happier with the idea of being British than English. British feels more diffuse, diverse and tolerant to me. I'm not at all sure that I'd want to carry on living in England if the UK split up. I'd expect to somehow feel under pressure to comply with a monolithic identity and to feel disapproval if I wasn't Anglo-Saxon, patriotic or right-wing enough. I know this is partly nonsense, as English people have all sorts of identities and opinions.....but it's how I feel. Rightly or wrongly, I'd expect to feel unwelcome in my own country.

 

 

Northern Ireland has a very particular history - and a united Ireland might happen some time in the future, regardless of Brexit. But it would be very dangerous for that to happen too soon and in a rush, due to Brexit complications. It's only been 20 years since the Good Friday Agreement. The communities there need longer to develop mutual trust. The Republic of Ireland also needs longer to prepare for any reunification. The Irish Republic seems to be on the up again now economically, but has only just emerged from tough times, still has a lot of social problems - and would be as badly hit economically by a No Deal Brexit as the UK. A few decades back the North was richer than the South, but the opposite is true now. If Ireland reunited, at least initially the Republic would have to subsidise the North, as England currently does - not to mention handling all the potential political hassle, inter-community strife etc.

 

Worth looking at that other link that I posted from the Irish Times. Arguably an extreme hypothetical scenario, but not at all impossible and pretty scary - he ends up with the Tory party split in two, a No Deal Brexit, Labour in govt propped up by the SNP & Sinn Fein, Scotland and N. Ireland voting to leave the UK within 2-3 years but the Republic of Ireland voting against reunification, the Corbyn Govt unable to implement its plans due to No Deal Brexit problems / market hostility to left-wing policies, facing great unpopularity & hostility etc.

 

That might all seem very unlikely, but who in 1988 foresaw the collapse of communism in central/eastern Europe, German reunification and the fragmentation of the USSR? Very, very few....extreme change can happen very quickly if circumstances combine to create it. Take the idea of the Tory party splitting in two. Despite longstanding internal disputes, we assume that won't really happen as it's been around for so long. But just look at some of the comments made by Tory MPs in the last few days: "a shit show", "the killing zone", "May should bring her own noose to the 1922 committee", "the moment is coming when the knife gets heated, stuck in her front and twisted" etc. A party can hardly stay together if talk like that carries on for long. I don't mean that as a partisan comment. Labour's divisions are just as well known, it's just that the Tories are in power and have reached a critical point in tackling the issue that most divides them - with no solution that will please everyone. O'Toole's Irish Times scenario might be miles off, but where he's undoubtedly right is that we're entering a major political crisis that brings some horrendous risks.

 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I genuinely hate the idea of the UK splitting up. I've never lived in Scotland, Ireland or Wales, only in England (and brief stints further afield) but am happier with the idea of being British than English. British feels more diffuse, diverse and tolerant to me. I'm not at all sure that I'd want to carry on living in England if the UK split up. I'd expect to somehow feel under pressure to comply with a monolithic identity and to feel disapproval if I wasn't Anglo-Saxon, patriotic or right-wing enough. I know this is partly nonsense, as English people have all sorts of identities and opinions.....but it's how I feel. Rightly or wrongly, I'd expect to feel unwelcome in my own country.

 

 

Northern Ireland has a very particular history - and a united Ireland might happen some time in the future, regardless of Brexit. But it would be very dangerous for that to happen too soon and in a rush, due to Brexit complications. It's only been 20 years since the Good Friday Agreement. The communities there need longer to develop mutual trust. The Republic of Ireland also needs longer to prepare for any reunification. The Irish Republic seems to be on the up again now economically, but has only just emerged from tough times, still has a lot of social problems - and would be as badly hit economically by a No Deal Brexit as the UK. A few decades back the North was richer than the South, but the opposite is true now. If Ireland reunited, at least initially the Republic would have to subsidise the North, as England currently does - not to mention handling all the potential political hassle, inter-community strife etc.

 

Worth looking at that other link that I posted from the Irish Times. Arguably an extreme hypothetical scenario, but not at all impossible and pretty scary - he ends up with the Tory party split in two, a No Deal Brexit, Labour in govt propped up by the SNP & Sinn Fein, Scotland and N. Ireland voting to leave the UK within 2-3 years but the Republic of Ireland voting against reunification, the Corbyn Govt unable to implement its plans due to No Deal Brexit problems / market hostility to left-wing policies, facing great unpopularity & hostility etc.

 

That might all seem very unlikely, but who in 1988 foresaw the collapse of communism in central/eastern Europe, German reunification and the fragmentation of the USSR? Very, very few....extreme change can happen very quickly if circumstances combine to create it. Take the idea of the Tory party splitting in two. Despite longstanding internal disputes, we assume that won't really happen as it's been around for so long. But just look at some of the comments made by Tory MPs in the last few days: "a shit show", "the killing zone", "May should bring her own noose to the 1922 committee", "the moment is coming when the knife gets heated, stuck in her front and twisted" etc. A party can hardly stay together if talk like that carries on for long. I don't mean that as a partisan comment. Labour's divisions are just as well known, it's just that the Tories are in power and have reached a critical point in tackling the issue that most divides them - with no solution that will please everyone. O'Toole's Irish Times scenario might be miles off, but where he's undoubtedly right is that we're entering a major political crisis that brings some horrendous risks.

Great post, I'm on the way to watch football so would like to put a longer response here bit ill keep it short as on my phone.

 

I think the first point is spot on there - I can see the case for an English identity but the amount of people who use it to hide behind racism in this day and age is often quite obvious.

 

I actually can only see Irish reunification eventually - and the civil war that follows it, I didn't read parts of the GFA agreement until the last year or so but in hindsight I'm amazed the British government were prepared to sign away a deal that would give the right for a referendum that broke up the union in a country where serious violence would almost certainly follow the decision that it is.

 

Weirdly I've started to feel far more of a dual national since Brexit - a Briton with Irish ancestry, I don't know where it's come from but a part of it is surely looking into the family tree via the brilliant websites where you can trace and learning about that, also the fact there are 7 million of us certainly makes it feel like a community as well inside this country - not many nations can have that many effective dual nationals in it and culturally still be so similar.

 

I hate the way the smaller nations in this Union sometimes complain about things I think are ridiculous but I certainly don't desire an independent England. I think it could be a social catastrophe and I can't believe how many seem prepared to sleepwalk into it.

 

I see my birthright as being a citizen of John O'Groats or Lands End and that isn't something that should change. I see British nationalism as a good thing and the people who support it do so for good reasons (aside from the cranks of the BNP etc), nothing I've seen about those who support English nationalism leads me to the same conclusion. 

[fuchsntf]

22 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I genuinely hate the idea of the UK splitting up. I've never lived in Scotland, Ireland or Wales, only in England (and brief stints further afield) but am happier with the idea of being British than English. British feels more diffuse, diverse and tolerant to me. I'm not at all sure that I'd want to carry on living in England if the UK split up. I'd expect to somehow feel under pressure to comply with a monolithic identity and to feel disapproval if I wasn't Anglo-Saxon, patriotic or right-wing enough. I know this is partly nonsense, as English people have all sorts of identities and opinions.....but it's how I feel. Rightly or wrongly, I'd expect to feel unwelcome in my own country.

 

 

Northern Ireland has a very particular history - and a united Ireland might happen some time in the future, regardless of Brexit. But it would be very dangerous for that to happen too soon and in a rush, due to Brexit complications. It's only been 20 years since the Good Friday Agreement. The communities there need longer to develop mutual trust. The Republic of Ireland also needs longer to prepare for any reunification. The Irish Republic seems to be on the up again now economically, but has only just emerged from tough times, still has a lot of social problems - and would be as badly hit economically by a No Deal Brexit as the UK. A few decades back the North was richer than the South, but the opposite is true now. If Ireland reunited, at least initially the Republic would have to subsidise the North, as England currently does - not to mention handling all the potential political hassle, inter-community strife etc.

 

Worth looking at that other link that I posted from the Irish Times. Arguably an extreme hypothetical scenario, but not at all impossible and pretty scary - he ends up with the Tory party split in two, a No Deal Brexit, Labour in govt propped up by the SNP & Sinn Fein, Scotland and N. Ireland voting to leave the UK within 2-3 years but the Republic of Ireland voting against reunification, the Corbyn Govt unable to implement its plans due to No Deal Brexit problems / market hostility to left-wing policies, facing great unpopularity & hostility etc.

 

That might all seem very unlikely, but who in 1988 foresaw the collapse of communism in central/eastern Europe, German reunification and the fragmentation of the USSR? Very, very few....extreme change can happen very quickly if circumstances combine to create it. Take the idea of the Tory party splitting in two. Despite longstanding internal disputes, we assume that won't really happen as it's been around for so long. But just look at some of the comments made by Tory MPs in the last few days: "a shit show", "the killing zone", "May should bring her own noose to the 1922 committee", "the moment is coming when the knife gets heated, stuck in her front and twisted" etc. A party can hardly stay together if talk like that carries on for long. I don't mean that as a partisan comment. Labour's divisions are just as well known, it's just that the Tories are in power and have reached a critical point in tackling the issue that most divides them - with no solution that will please everyone. O'Toole's Irish Times scenario might be miles off, but where he's undoubtedly right is that we're entering a major political crisis that brings some horrendous risks.

 

At present,I doubt you would find many N.Irish want to give up the UK,and sail any course that forces a tact to any idea  of a untited Ireland..

We English of Anglo-saxon-Norman decent,run towards a scrap..so chose your sides,once we haven't got the Irish,Welsh or Scots to Blame.

 

Are you Anglo,maybe Saxon,or could you have the blood of a conquerer in you vains...and like me be of Norman-Saxon blood!!..

[Alf Bentley]

10 minutes ago, MattP said:

Great post, I'm on the way to watch football so would like to put a longer response here bit ill keep it short as on my phone.

 

I think the first point is spot on there - I can see the case for an English identity but the amount of people who use it to hide behind racism in this day and age is often quite obvious.

 

I actually can only see Irish reunification eventually - and the civil war that follows it, I didn't read parts of the GFA agreement until the last year or so but in hindsight I'm amazed the British government were prepared to sign away a deal that would give the right for a referendum that broke up the union in a country where serious violence would almost certainly follow the decision that it is.

 

Weirdly I've started to feel far more of a dual national since Brexit - a Briton with Irish ancestry, I don't know where it's come from but a part of it is surely looking into the family tree via the brilliant websites where you can trace and learning about that, also the fact there are 7 million of us certainly makes it feel like a community as well inside this country - not many nations can have that many effective dual nationals in it and culturally still be so similar.

 

I hate the way the smaller nations in this Union sometimes complain about things I think are ridiculous but I certainly don't desire an independent England. I think it could be a social catastrophe and I can't believe how many seem prepared to sleepwalk into it.

 

I see my birthright as being a citizen of John O'Groats or Lands End and that isn't something that should change. I see British nationalism as a good thing and the people who support it do so for good reasons (aside from the cranks of the BNP etc), nothing I've seen about those who support English nationalism leads me to the same conclusion. 

 

Almost forgot about the football. Might be good to do so, as I'm expecting a thrashing tonight. 

 

I hope you're wrong about near-inevitable violence / civil war, but think it's a whole lot more likely if Irish reunification becomes an issue prematurely. I suppose the potential for a reunification referendum was a cornerstone in securing lasting peace in that it gave the Unionist majority an effective veto in the short/medium-term but gave the Republicans hope in the long-term....and the assumption was that "long-term" would be a lot longer than 20 years.

 

I know demographics will mean that Catholics soon form a slim majority in Northern Ireland. Even then, I think there were always assumptions that any attempt at reunification would take longer. Because some Catholics would see the UK as a better economic prospect than the Republic of Ireland and one that had other social advantages (the NHS, notably). Also, because Sinn Fein and the SDLP (still then a major force) would only push for a referendum when they thought they could win - and, in the case of the SDLP, at least, when they thought it would no longer cause major inter-communal strife.

 

Lots of that no longer applies: the UK is no longer necessarily a better economic prospect than Ireland; the NHS may be descending into crisis; the SDLP has lost much of its support; and Sinn Fein is under new leadership (whatever we might think of Adams & McGuinness, they were shrewd realists - Mary Lou McDonald seems bright enough, but I get the impression Michelle O'Neill might be out of her depth). In that context, if Brexit causes strife or major economic problems in Northern Ireland, it could encourage Republicans to push for a referendum sooner than they would otherwise have done - and might get it quickly if Corbyn were PM, of course. 

 

It's interesting that, in his imagined scenario, O'Toole has the Irish Republic voting against reunification. I presume reunification would also require RoI support (the GFA did). I could imagine a vote against, if No Deal Brexit caused a severe economic downturn, affecting Ireland as badly as the UK, and there was inter-communal violence in the North. In my experience, while most people in the Irish Republic would theoretically support a united Ireland "some day", only a tiny minority are passionate about it - and the vast majority have no time for violence. Would the Republic vote for reunification if that involved economic subsidies for the North in a tough post-Brexit climate and handling sectarian violence & loyalist resistance?

 

On the other hand, I'm concerned at how Irish attitudes to the English might change if a No Deal Brexit causes major problems over there. Over all my years going over there, I've never encountered any anti-English hostility despite having an English accent. Am planning to visit again next year, but won't make any bookings until this whole situation is clearer.

[Alf Bentley]

57 minutes ago, fuchsntf said:

 

Are you Anglo,maybe Saxon,or could you have the blood of a conquerer in you vains...and like me be of Norman-Saxon blood!!..

 

A tiny bit of Saxon (a g-g-g-grandfather from Sussex - the South Saxons), a tiny bit of Norman (an Irish family line that had been Normans a few centuries ago).

Not aware of any Angles (either acute or obtuse) - though I grew up in Jute-land (Kent, not Jutland).

 

I'm probably less conqueror, more conker-out. We're all mongrels at the end of the day, all descended from some apes who got down from trees in the Congo, last I heard. 

[lifted*fox]

 

wow, that's some fvcked up shit. 

 

[breadandcheese]

 

The behaviour by the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and its security services has been vile.   The more you hear about it, the more disgusting it becomes, especially with the cover-up afterwards. I'll admit that I was duped by MBS's reforming ways with the green shoots of a liberalisation programme.  So my fear is that he is just another Assad or someone like that, rather than the leader that the Middle East needs.

 

The real question is our response to this.  I'm not sure I buy the ban on arms, or strong slapdown that others propose.  I don't think I'm ready to cast off an ally just yet, especially one from as unpredictable a region as the Middle East, where you always need an ally.  If we do Saudi will inevitably end up in the arms of Putin (I read a tweet today that Russian firms and Chinese firms had sent their top delegates to this Davos style conference in Saudi Arabia hoping to take advantage of Western firms pulling out after the Khashoggi murder). 

 

I hope we can act as a friend, along with the United States and show the crown prince that he should behave more within the norms of what is acceptable, rather than butchering journalists in cold blood.  The Saudis have helped the West many times with oil prices, so we should repay the favour by helping them to rehabilitate.  Make this a Thomas Becket moment.  

[Guest MattP]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/23/eu-and-italy-face-off-over-populist-governments-budget

 

EU rejects Italy's ideas of how they can spend their money. 

 

Will this organisation ever learn?

Edited 23 October 2018 by MattP

[Carl the Llama]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/23/eu-and-italy-face-off-over-populist-governments-budget

 

EU rejects Italy's ideas of how they can spend their money. 

 

Will this organisation ever learn?

It sounds like the commission is asking them to revise their budget to prevent them accruing further debt, breaking previous agreements in the process.  Why are they wrong?

[Strokes]

26 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

It sounds like the commission is asking them to revise their budget to prevent them accruing further debt, breaking previous agreements in the process.  Why are they wrong?

Asking 

[Carl the Llama]

2 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Asking 

Why are they wrong to tell Italy that their current budget - which breaks an agreement between Italy and the commission - will result in more debt and a fragile economy?

[Strokes]

7 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

Why are they wrong to tell Italy that their current budget - which breaks an agreement between Italy and the commission - will result in more debt and a fragile economy?

Because it isn’t the United States of Europe just yet.

[Innovindil]

"It is tempting to try and cure debt with more debt. At some point, the debt weighs too heavy... you end up having no freedom at all."

 

Potentially my new favourite quote of all time. 

[Carl the Llama]

6 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Because it isn’t the United States of Europe just yet.

That's not an answer to my question.  Do you think Italy's plans are fiscally sound and it's ok to break agreements that are there to safeguard not just Italy's but all of the interconnected Eurozone economies?

Edited 23 October 2018 by Carl the Llama

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

So you think Italy's plans are fiscally sound and it's ok to break agreements that are there to safeguard not just Italy's but all of the interconnected Eurozone economies?

I think Italians should be free to choose their own destiny, whether I agree with it or not.

[Carl the Llama]

Just now, Strokes said:

I think Italians should be free to choose their own destiny, whether I agree with it or not.

You do understand that they are in a monetary union with other states though, right?  And you understand that membership of such a union requires a certain level of fiscal policy centralisation and adherence to pre-defined norms (otherwise you end up with another Greece scenario)?

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, Carl the Llama said:

You do understand that they are in a monetary union with other states though, right?  And you understand that membership of such a union requires a certain level of fiscal policy centralisation and adherence to pre-defined norms (otherwise you end up with another Greece scenario)?

Yes.