Brexit!

[Legend_in_blue]

Now Bojo is pushing for his GE based on everyone putting his deal through first. 

 

Noone is going to fall for that one.  Try again.

[Guest MattP]

7 minutes ago, bovril said:

My memory is not great but when did May's government ever attempt to generate losers' consent? I just remember a 52/48 referendum, a couple of months of silence, then the red lines. 

I've totally lost you here, when did May or her government not accept the result of an election or referendum?

[Leicester_Loyal]

3 hours ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

We were told that post-referendum not before. Leave's message pre-referendum was a Norwegian and Swiss style deal, which would be an absolute breeze to sort out. 

I specifically remember David Cameron saying it prior to voting.

[bovril]

8 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I specifically remember David Cameron saying it prior to voting.

"Project fear", if I remember correctly. 

[bovril]

12 minutes ago, MattP said:

I've totally lost you here, when did May or her government not accept the result of an election or referendum?

I always understood 'losers' consent' as something winners needed to obtain through consensus building, especially with such a close vote, as in the case of the 1997 Welsh Assembly vote that is often used as an example. That didn't happen in 2016. 

[Guest MattP]

19 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Now Bojo is pushing for his GE based on everyone putting his deal through first. 

 

Noone is going to fall for that one.  Try again.

Labour aren't going to vote for one whatever the circumstances, current projections they are losing anywhere from 50-100 seats.

 

We are absolutely stuck, a zombie government that has more chance of winning an election than a zombie opposition whose support it needs for an election.

 

We might end up sat here until 2022.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, bovril said:

I always understood 'losers' consent' as something winners needed to obtain through consensus building, especially with such a close vote, as in the case of the 1997 Welsh Assembly vote that is often used as an example. That didn't happen in 2016. 

I've always understood it to be accepting the results of democratic exercises.

[Bobby Hundreds]

21 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I specifically remember David Cameron saying it prior to voting.

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/liaison/Transcript-040516.pdf 

 

Not sure that’s true, he gave evidence as to why he thought being on WTO terms was a bad idea, not that we’d crash out on such terms if we couldn’t strike up a favourable deal within two years. 

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

11 minutes ago, bovril said:

"Project fear", if I remember correctly. 

Was that ever said? As already stated, us and parliament knew that if a deal wasn't agreed we'd go to WTO terms.

[Leicester_Loyal]

3 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/liaison/Transcript-040516.pdf 

 

Not sure that’s true, he gave evidence as to why he thought being on WTO terms was a bad idea, not that we’d crash out on such terms if we couldn’t strike up a favourable deal within two years. 

 

I've been trying to find the video and did eventually. I'm not sure on the context or whatever, it was over 3 years ago.

 

 

Edited 24 October 2019 by Leicester_Loyal

[Bellend Sebastian]

15 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I've been trying to find the video and did eventually. I'm not sure on the context or whatever, it was over 3 years ago.

 

 

The main thing is that that clip hasn't been edited at all

[Guest MattP]

In amongst all this madness - the government has actually managed to get its Queens Speech through, appears the Lib Dems abstained.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50171547

[Mike Oxlong]

Not sure why anyone thinks you can’t trust Boris 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/why-the-normal-rules-dont-apply-to-boris-johnson-11843361

[Leicester_Loyal]

3 hours ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

The main thing is that that clip hasn't been edited at all

The point was it was said, I watched it prior to voting and I remember Cameron saying it. I also stated 'i wasn't sure on the context' due to the clip obviously being edited.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872

 

Oh look a BBC article, in the event of a no deal (which would occur after 2 years), we leave on WTO terms.

 

Here's praying for a GE and a Bojo + Farage pact

Edited 24 October 2019 by Leicester_Loyal

[Mike Oxlong]

On 22/10/2019 at 19:50, MattP said:

It was. 

 

So now we have a parliament that wants to leave the EU but just can't decide when.

 

I suppose that's progress.

 

On 22/10/2019 at 19:55, Mike Oxlong said:

Nice spin 👍

 

On 22/10/2019 at 19:59, MattP said:

What's not true about that?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/conservative-party-under-fire-for-fake-brexit-deal-claim-11844037

 

Hi Dom 

 

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

4 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

 

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/conservative-party-under-fire-for-fake-brexit-deal-claim-11844037

 

Hi Dom 

 

 

How many days in jail will Boris be sentenced to for this?

[Mike Oxlong]

4 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

How many days in jail will Boris be sentenced to for this?

The greased piglet would slip between the bars 

[BlueSi13]

 

Despite currently having a double digit lead in the polls, this sort of polling scenario will give the PM, Conservatives and a lot of leavers nightmares.  A complete split of the leave note.  Peterborough and Brecon copied on a national scale.

 

Farage's behaviour in the past week has been bizarre and is seemingly more focused on trying to discredit the government rather than going after Labour and the Liberal Democrats who actually want Brexit reversed.

 

If Farage is successful in whipping a significant % of leavers up against the Conservatives then it'll be Corbyn in Downing Street and Brexit dead and buried.

 

As a leaver I now fear Farage far more than Corbyn or Swinson.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mike Oxlong]

Great news ! 

 

Apparently Lily has sorted out this mess 

 

[Alf Bentley]

5 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I specifically remember David Cameron saying it prior to voting.

 

49 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

The point was it was said, I watched it prior to voting and I remember Cameron saying it. I also stated 'i wasn't sure on the context' due to the clip obviously being edited.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872

 

Oh look a BBC article, in the event of a no deal (which would occur after 2 years), we leave on WTO terms.

 

Here's praying for a GE and a Bojo + Farage pact

 

The rules were always that No Deal/WTO Terms would be the outcome 2 years after triggering Article 50, if no deal had been negotiated & no extension requested or granted. But that's not the point.

Never mind advocating No Deal, as many do now, most Leave campaigners stressed how unlikely that outcome was, that we'd get a great deal, were in a strong negotiating position due to our trade deficit, German car makers needing UK sales etc.

 

It does amuse me how Leave supporters drag out Cameron's statements as evidence.........er, this is a bloke you pillory (with some justification) for telling lies & promoting Project Fear, and you're basing your arguments on his claims?!? 

Was Billy Liar unavailable? Would you accept Guardiola's valuation of LCFC players now despite knowing that he tried to undervalue Mahrez? 

 

I'm with you on Bojo + Farage, though. I'm hoping for a pact, too.....a suicide pact. A literal suicide pact would be preferable, but an electoral suicide pact will do, ripping each other up & splitting the Leave vote. 

 

Now where is Johnson again?

- Got a Brexit Deal passed in parliament by 30 votes......responded by withdrawing his deal because it couldn't be finalized within 3 days.

- Got his Queen's Speech passed today, promising all sorts of voter-pleasing goodies.......responded by calling for an election that would throw it all in question, so as to seek ever more power.

- Had Javid ready to do a budget to fund all the goodies in a fortnight.......cancels the budget so he can't pay for the goodies and goes off pouting in the corner rather than either proceed with Brexit or proceed with his spending plans....

Incredible Hulk? Incredible Sulk, more like....or Incredibly Amoral Power-Obsessed Narcissist...

[Leicester_Loyal]

14 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

The rules were always that No Deal/WTO Terms would be the outcome 2 years after triggering Article 50, if no deal had been negotiated & no extension requested or granted. But that's not the point.

Never mind advocating No Deal, as many do now, most Leave campaigners stressed how unlikely that outcome was, that we'd get a great deal, were in a strong negotiating position due to our trade deficit, German car makers needing UK sales etc.

 

So back to my original point, we were told *prior* to voting that after 2 years we'd leave WTO if we hadn't agreed a deal?

 

9 hours ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

We were told that post-referendum not before. Leave's message pre-referendum was a Norwegian and Swiss style deal, which would be an absolute breeze to sort out. 

Which means that this post is infact not true, as I stated earlier.

 

[Alf Bentley]

57 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

 

Despite currently having a double digit lead in the polls, this sort of polling scenario will give the PM, Conservatives and a lot of leavers nightmares.  A complete split of the leave note.  Peterborough and Brecon copied on a national scale.

 

Farage's behaviour in the past week has been bizarre and is seemingly more focused on trying to discredit the government rather than going after Labour and the Liberal Democrats who actually want Brexit reversed.

 

If Farage is successful in whipping a significant % of leavers up against the Conservatives then it'll be Corbyn in Downing Street and Brexit dead and buried.

 

As a leaver I now fear Farage far more than Corbyn or Swinson.

 

 

Where was @MattP with this poll? You're falling down on the job, mate! 

(Just joking. I know you do sometimes post polls that look adverse for your side).

 

An outcome like this would be hilarious, though I'm not sure the EU would see the funny side of a possible Corbyn-led rainbow coalition turning up to re-negotiate.....and I'm certainly not getting my hopes up yet.

 

As a Lefty Remainer, a Farage resurgence dividing the Leave/Right vote is now one of my main hopes.....strange allies and all that.

Mind you, Tory Leave supporters are in the same boat - hoping for a strong showing by the fanatical Revoke-supporting Lib Dems, taking votes off Labour & thereby handing seats to the Tories.....the joys of First Past The Post elections.

 

If we do have a December/January election, I wonder what the turnout will be like - and which groups will stay at home?

Those with strong views still probably vote, but a low turnout is likely, I imagine, what with the level of disillusionment, repeated elections, cold weather, dark night & morning.

Low turnouts are generally thought to be bad for Labour, but a winter election could mean a disproportionately high number of the elderly stay at home.....not so good for Tories relying on a big Leave surge....

 

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

So back to my original point, we were told *prior* to voting that after 2 years we'd leave WTO if we hadn't agreed a deal?

 

Which means that this post is infact not true, as I stated earlier.

 

 

No. 

 

The 2-year WTO thing is a statement of fact about the rules that was known pre-referendum......but the Leave side weren't advocating that outcome. They were playing it down, claiming we'd get a great deal after the EU capitulated due to our strong negotiating position, the needs of German car exporters, French wine exporters etc. @Bobby Hundreds is right that they were claiming that it would be "an absolute breeze" to sort out - and there was lots of talk about Norway & Swiss models etc. Only Gove argued openly for a more remote relationship.

 

In reality, Boris' Deal is basically the one that the EU offered to May a year or two back, but which she backed out of due to DUP objections to the border in the Irish Sea. A year ago, Johnson said "no British Conservative Government could or should accept" such a border.....now he's gone and negotiated one! 

 

Johnson has gone back, begged the EU for May's Reject Deal, shafted the DUP so as to bring his ERG extremists back on board - and proclaimed it a great success.....and Leave voters love it...."greased piglet", as someone else said.

Oh! And he's signed up to pay the divorce settlement in full.....after saying, a couple of years ago, that the EU "could whistle" for any such payment.... 

[ajthefox]

9 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

No. 

 

The 2-year WTO thing is a statement of fact about the rules that was known pre-referendum......but the Leave side weren't advocating that outcome. They were playing it down, claiming we'd get a great deal after the EU capitulated due to our strong negotiating position, the needs of German car exporters, French wine exporters etc. @Bobby Hundreds is right that they were claiming that it would be "an absolute breeze" to sort out - and there was lots of talk about Norway & Swiss models etc. Only Gove argued openly for a more remote relationship.

 

In reality, Boris' Deal is basically the one that the EU offered to May a year or two back, but which she backed out of due to DUP objections to the border in the Irish Sea. A year ago, Johnson said "no British Conservative Government could or should accept" such a border.....now he's gone and negotiated one! 

 

Johnson has gone back, begged the EU for May's Reject Deal, shafted the DUP so as to bring his ERG extremists back on board - and proclaimed it a great success.....and Leave voters love it...."greased piglet", as someone else said.

Oh! And he's signed up to pay the divorce settlement in full.....after saying, a couple of years ago, that the EU "could whistle" for any such payment.... 

And somehow to many, he comes out smelling of roses.

 

He's magic, you knooooooow...

[Guest MattP]

7 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Where was @MattP with this poll? You're falling down on the job, mate! 

(Just joking. I know you do sometimes post polls that look adverse for your side).

 

An outcome like this would be hilarious, though I'm not sure the EU would see the funny side of a possible Corbyn-led rainbow coalition turning up to re-negotiate.....and I'm certainly not getting my hopes up yet.

 

As a Lefty Remainer, a Farage resurgence dividing the Leave/Right vote is now one of my main hopes.....strange allies and all that.

Mind you, Tory Leave supporters are in the same boat - hoping for a strong showing by the fanatical Revoke-supporting Lib Dems, taking votes off Labour & thereby handing seats to the Tories.....the joys of First Past The Post elections.

 

If we do have a December/January election, I wonder what the turnout will be like - and which groups will stay at home?

Those with strong views still probably vote, but a low turnout is likely, I imagine, what with the level of disillusionment, repeated elections, cold weather, dark night & morning.

Low turnouts are generally thought to be bad for Labour, but a winter election could mean a disproportionately high number of the elderly stay at home.....not so good for Tories relying on a big Leave surge....

If that polling is anywhere near true and is repeated by numerous companies after October 31st then Boris will just have to bite the bullet and go into an electoral pact with Farage. it means  a promise for a No Deal of course but it's better than the alternative of a Corbyn led government,

On the subject of a Winter election turnout - I don't think it will make much difference, just looking at the turnout for the 1974 Feb election and that was then highest turnout since 1951 and hasn't been topped since, if people have something to come out and vote for they will.

 

http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

Edited 25 October 2019 by MattP