Brexit!

[Guest MattP]

Odds on next Government Outcome from Bet365.

Conservative Majority: 5/6

Conservative Minority: 3/1
Labour Minority: 10/3

Labour/Lib Dem Coalition: 16/1

Labour Majority: 20/1

Labour/SNP Coalition 20/1

Conservative/Brexit Party Coalition: 25/1

50/1 Bar

[Voll Blau]

People are going to vote for what they think means stability and not having to do this again for a while. That means five years of Johnson with a majority in most people's eyes I think.

 

Hope I'm wrong, but Labour seem to be fixated on 2017 and thinking they'll surprise everyone and make gains again like they did. The situation has changed since then and in a mid-winter election I think people's general mood (old, tired, everything's fvcked anyway) will affect the result too.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Voll Blau said:

People are going to vote for what they think means stability and not having to do this again for a while. That means five years of Johnson with a majority in most people's eyes I think.

 

Hope I'm wrong, but Labour seem to be fixated on 2017 and thinking they'll surprise everyone and make gains again like they did. The situation has changed since then and in a mid-winter election I think people's general mood (old, tired, everything's fvcked anyway) will affect the result too.

I just can't see Labour gains given its pro-leave seats that make up most of their targets. In addition to that they are heading for wipe out in Scotland and will surely lose some seats to the Liberals.

 

That said a Tory majority is still difficult to achieve - they are surely going to lose seats in Scotland and the South so they need to take quite a few in the Midlands and North. 

[foxy boxing]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

How strange. Abstained yesterday

 

Looks like we are on though, December election incoming.

 

 

Not Another One

[RoboFox]

Why on earth anyone on a modest income with half an interest in their own and their families' quality of life would want a Conservative government is totally beyond me. The country has been completely and utterly ****ed into the ground. Cuts have devastated the public sector, Brexit is an embarrassment, and our current PM is an untrustworthy, international laughing stock.

 

But then again, therein lies the fundamental flaw with democracy: People are gullible and inherently lazy. Many won't look past the headline of the Sun or Daily Mail for their manifesto information.

 

They'll probably get a minority government, which is a shame because there's a huge opportunity to take a broken country in a different direction. It's testament to the weakness of the Labour opposition that the Tories haven't been utterly annihilated already.

[Bobby Hundreds]

39 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

Ash Sarker on television now saying with momentum behind them a big Labour landslide is possible.

 

These people still don't seem to grasp they've actually lost every national election since 2016. They appear convinced they are winning them all.

I find it so weird that momentum seem to have no grasp on how they come across to the traditional labour voting base. If they do know, then I'm not sure why they think replacing the working class vote with a predominantly radical student vote will get them a majority.   

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

I just can't see Labour gains given its pro-leave seats that make up most of their targets. In addition to that they are heading for wipe out in Scotland and will surely lose some seats to the Liberals.

 

That said a Tory majority is still difficult to achieve - they are surely going to lose seats in Scotland and the South so they need to take quite a few in the Midlands and North. 

It's all going to depend on how much Labour can try and steer the campaign away from Brexit to the extent whereby most people actually disregard it entirely when choosing who to vote for. I think they think they can, but I'm not convinced.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Did McDonnell say he and Corbyn were gone if they lose again or did I make that up? 

[Facecloth]

2 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Did McDonnell say he and Corbyn were gone if they lose again or did I make that up? 

[Alf Bentley]

Still possible that amendments could derail the election vote today, causing the Tories to withdraw their proposal, apparently.

 

However, an election in December or January was already inevitable, wasn't it? Would be a massive risk to try to drag things out much longer - risk of EU not agreeing another extension & risk of causing further public anger & economic instability.

 

There was the option to try to force Johnson to bring back his WAB & try to amend it. Risks in that, too, though. It might have passed unamended - or, if amendments succeeded, he could have withdrawn his bill & engineered an election....or even accepted amendments to the Political Declaration, then reversed them after winning an election. Anyway, the LDs & SNP clearly decided not to risk it - & not to trust Labour rebels not to support it.

 

I hope I'm wrong, but think we could be heading for a Johnson majority, enabling a Tory Govt dominated by the Right to push through an ultra-Hard Brexit or even No Deal, along with multiple other Hard Right policies (after a few election giveaways upfront, no doubt). That's what Philip Hammond thinks, and presumably all 21 Tory Remainers/Wets will be gone, unless the odd one gets back in as an independent: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/boris-johnson-using-election-to-move-tories-further-right-says-philip-hammond

[leicsmac]

[RoboFox]

3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

I hope I'm wrong, but think we could be heading for a Johnson majority, enabling a Tory Govt dominated by the Right to push through an ultra-Hard Brexit or even No Deal, along with multiple other Hard Right policies (after a few election giveaways upfront, no doubt). That's what Philip Hammond thinks, and presumably all 21 Tory Remainers/Wets will be gone, unless the odd one gets back in as an independent: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/boris-johnson-using-election-to-move-tories-further-right-says-philip-hammond

 

All of the moderate Tory rebels will lose their seats. It'll be a Tory minority propped up by the Brexit party.

 

We'll basically have an ultranationalist far right-wing government.

So much fun.

[Alf Bentley]

51 minutes ago, MattP said:

Odds on next Government Outcome from Bet365.

Conservative Majority: 5/6

Conservative Minority: 3/1
Labour Minority: 10/3

Labour/Lib Dem Coalition: 16/1

Labour Majority: 20/1

Labour/SNP Coalition 20/1

Conservative/Brexit Party Coalition: 25/1

50/1 Bar

 

No odds for a Tory/DUP coalition? 

 

There's a serious point behind that: the Tories really do need to win a majority to be able to govern. No other party is likely to support them, unless the Brexit Party make a real breakthrough. A handful of Labour Leave MPs might support a Brexit Bill under a Tory minority, I suppose, but might demand amendments. I presume that's why a Tory minority is about the same odds as a Labour minority. Unfortunately, a Tory majority looks possible.

 

The importance of what Farage does is evident from this graph (FT). Look at what's happened between July and now: almost no change in Lab or Lib Dem support, but Tories boosted ever more by Brexit Party switchers.

 

From a Left or Soft Brexit/Remain perspective, unless we have a repeat of 2017 (not impossible but highly unlikely), the only hopes are:

- Farage splits the Right/Leave vote

- There is massively more tactical voting among anti-Tories than ever before....will probably happen to some extent, but not enough, I reckon.

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

57 minutes ago, MattP said:

I just can't see Labour gains given its pro-leave seats that make up most of their targets. In addition to that they are heading for wipe out in Scotland and will surely lose some seats to the Liberals.

 

That said a Tory majority is still difficult to achieve - they are surely going to lose seats in Scotland and the South so they need to take quite a few in the Midlands and North. 

 

That sounds about right.

 

I suppose Labour might take the odd Tory Remain seat, if they were a close second last time and tactical voting happens to a large extent.....not many, though, and they're likely to lose seats to SNP & to Tories.

They also risk losing not just Leave seats to the Tories but Remain seats in places like London, if a significant number of Remain voters switch to the Lib Dems so that the Lab vote drops more than the Tory vote.

 

I doubt they'll lose many seats directly to the Lib Dems, though, as there are very few Lab/LD marginals.....unfortunately, there are also comparatively few Tory/LD marginals.

 

4 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

 

All of the moderate Tory rebels will lose their seats. It'll be a Tory minority propped up by the Brexit party.

 

We'll basically have an ultranationalist far right-wing government.

So much fun.

 

The Brexit Party will have to increase their vote during the campaign - or form a pact with the Tories - if they're going to have many, if any MPs. They're currently below the levels UKIP had at their height. 

What Farage does will have a massive bearing on the outcome of this election, though.

 

Unfortunately, I'd be expecting a Tory majority at the moment - there are a lot of Lab/Con marginals with small majorities.

 

I'm sure most, if not all of the Tory rebels & TIG lot will lose their seats. I suppose the odd one might buck the trend in Remain-voting Tory "safe" seats, if the vote is split 3 or more ways.....there'll be a few weird results, I suspect.

 

An ultra-nationalist Hard Right govt is a real possibility, though. At the moment, I'd probably settle for the Tories just not getting a majority - or even a very small one (a smattering of moderates will still be elected, though a lot fewer than before).

[Guest MattP]

32 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Did McDonnell say he and Corbyn were gone if they lose again or did I make that up? 

McDonnell also said that on Marr before the last election.

 

Don't rule out them again lowering expectations in the media and then if they stop the Tories claiming an overall majority celebrating another "victory".

 

These people have fought a war for control of this party - they won't give it up easily.

[Guest MattP]

24 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

All of the moderate Tory rebels will lose their seats. It'll be a Tory minority propped up by the Brexit party.

 

We'll basically have an ultranationalist far right-wing government.

So much fun.

If the Brexit party are polling high enough to win numerous seats under FPTP the Tories aren't getting near a majority anyway.

 

You can only get this supposed "ultra nationalist far right wing government"  (wtf) in the event of an electoral pact between the two.

 

We could have some seats resembling Inverness 1992 if the polls close up.

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

If the Brexit party are polling high enough to win numerous seats under FPTP the Tories aren't getting near a majority anyway.

 

You can only get this supposed "ultra nationalist far right wing government"  (wtf) in the event of an electoral pact between the two.

 

We could have some seats resembling Inverness 1992 if the polls close up.

You're right, a Conservative-BP coalition wouldn't be an ultra-nationalist far-right wing government.

 

It would however likely be best friends and prime trading partners with a country that right now does have that kind of government.

[Guest MattP]

Just now, leicsmac said:

You're right, a Conservative-BP coalition wouldn't be an ultra-nationalist far-right wing government.

 

It would however likely be best friends and prime trading partners with a country that right now does have that kind of government.

You could argue are already are - have you not heard of Saudi Arabia?

 

Or do people just not go apoplectic about that as it's not the USA and Trump, which of course you have to go into complete outrage over at any and every opportunity. 

[Bobby Hundreds]

I'd be surprised if the Brexit Party even won 1 seat. My feeling is we'll be in another Conservative minority and back to square one; party politics is still far too tribal and if turnout is low,  expect that would help the remain side of the argument. 

[HappyHamza]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Odds on next Government Outcome from Bet365.

Conservative Majority: 5/6

Conservative Minority: 3/1
Labour Minority: 10/3

Labour/Lib Dem Coalition: 16/1

Labour Majority: 20/1

Labour/SNP Coalition 20/1

Conservative/Brexit Party Coalition: 25/1

50/1 Bar

Yet to see a more irrelevant post.

It may well be a tory win but surely you'd have learnt to wait until closer to polling day to take even a smidgeon of interest in anything else?

 

Brexit, Trump and loss of the Tory majority were all decided in the final days after large polling deficits were overturned. 

[RoboFox]

16 minutes ago, MattP said:

If the Brexit party are polling high enough to win numerous seats under FPTP the Tories aren't getting near a majority anyway.

 

You can only get this supposed "ultra nationalist far right wing government"  (wtf) in the event of an electoral pact between the two.

 

We could have some seats resembling Inverness 1992 if the polls close up.

 

I think you'd refer to it as "moderate". 

 

But in seriousness, fine... It's a bit of hyperbole. You of all people should allow us that.

 

Edited 29 October 2019 by RoboFox

[HappyHamza]

The Tories want 12th December or might accept 11th. Many unis end their terms on 9th Dec with students leaving on 10th.

 

I understand it's a tactical move by Boris but can it ever be right for a government to try to disenfranchise voters in order to win an election?

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

I think you'd refer to it as "moderate". 

 

But in seriousness, fine... It's a bit of hyperbole. You of all people should allow us that.

Well I think it would be a combination - right wing on things like crime and immigration but far more left than previous Tory governments economically. I don't think that's a bad thing either.

 

Of course you can have that

 

Even if it was true I'd take it over the terrorist sympathising anti semetic communists in the Labour party

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

The Tories want 12th December or might accept 11th. Many unis end their terms on 9th Dec with students leaving on 10th.

 

I understand it's a tactical move by Boris but can it ever be right for a government to try to disenfranchise voters in order to win an election?

Surely it's even worse they are voting in areas they just go to school in rather than their actual home?

 

Canterbury a prime example, historically Tory town, Tory people - gets a Labour MP for five years on votes from many who have fcuked off from the constituency within months of casting it.

Edited 29 October 2019 by MattP

[st albans fox]

Are British ex pats entitled to vote in any European national give elections ??

 

would seem a strange thing for the U.K. to do ahead of a GE which seems predicated on brexit ....

 

unless there is reasonable precedent in Europe 

 

If I wasn’t so bothered by corbyn/McDonnell or the Lib Dem’s desire to disenfranchise or a possible rw Tory govt, I could enjoy the next six weeks .......