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Brexit!

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I never thought I'd say this but living in the north I have heard more people saying that they'll vote tory than I have labour. I've heard from numerous people who have voted labour their entire life that they are prepared to vote convservative or BP as a one off. I personally think Labour will get a shock and might lose one or two of their safe seats. 

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5 minutes ago, MattP said:

Surely it's even worse they are voting in areas they just go to school in rather than their actual home?

 

Canterbury a prime example, historically Tory town, Tory people - gets a Labour MP for five years on votes from many who have fcuked off from the constituency within months of casting it.

Why? If they spend 9 months a year in one area they deserve a say in who is in charge there, a large amount of students don't return "home" after they leave university anyway.

 

I think there's examples for each side of the argument though (as you've shown with Canterbury).

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16 minutes ago, MattP said:

You could argue are already are - have you not heard of Saudi Arabia?

 

Or do people just not go apoplectic about that as it's not the USA and Trump, which of course you have to go into complete outrage over at any and every opportunity. 

Suppose you could add China to that list too given their penchant for a combination of state capitalism and repression, so fair point.

 

Reason I go on about the US administration more than such places is because those places don't turn around and claim to be paragons of moral virtue and a shining light for the world to follow (not exactly in those words, but you get the idea) while they're busy burying womens and minority rights in a sea of "X liberty" legislation. Oh, and they have more world clout, even now, than anywhere else so what they do at an international level affects a lot more people in a lot wider fashion, too.

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3 minutes ago, peach0000 said:

I never thought I'd say this but living in the north I have heard more people saying that they'll vote tory than I have labour. I've heard from numerous people who have voted labour their entire life that they are prepared to vote convservative or BP as a one off. I personally think Labour will get a shock and might lose one or two of their safe seats. 

I can understand people voting Brexit Party (as it is clearly a one-issue party) but how people can say they're a Labour voter and switch to a pretty right wing Tory government is unbelievable and they should quite frankly be called out on it. It's wholly unprincipled to do so. Fair enough Labour are shocking at the moment but there are other ways they can vote than switching to a pretty bad incarnation of something they have professed to always vote against.

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11 minutes ago, bmt said:

I can understand people voting Brexit Party (as it is clearly a one-issue party) but how people can say they're a Labour voter and switch to a pretty right wing Tory government is unbelievable and they should quite frankly be called out on it. It's wholly unprincipled to do so. Fair enough Labour are shocking at the moment but there are other ways they can vote than switching to a pretty bad incarnation of something they have professed to always vote against.

I think a lot of of people are really conflicted by the Brexit issue. They voted for something to happen then are being told by the party that's supposed to represent them that they didn't understand what they were voting for and lets re run the whole thing. Thats enough for a lot of people to switch. 

 

Also I personally wouldn't call the current tory government "pretty right wing", to me it's a lot more moderate that many tory governments before it. There seems to be a narrative at the moment that Boris is a mini Trump when it's simply not true. He's one of the most moderate Torys you'll ever hope to find.

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11 minutes ago, MattP said:

Well I think it would be a combination - right wing on things like crime and immigration but far more left than previous Tory governments economically. I don't think that's a bad thing either.

 

Of course you can have that lol

 

Even if it was true I'd take it over the terrorist sympathising anti semetic communists in the Labour party ;)

 

If the Tories win a majority, any "left-wing economic policies" will be very short-lived, I reckon.

 

They'd presumably pass Johnson's Deal unamended and negotiate an arm's length relationship with the EU (unless they opt for No Deal in January or December 2020).

They'll want the option to diverge as much as possible on rights, regulations etc. I can't imagine a Tory majority govt wanting to extend beyond Dec. 2020, so any FTA could be minimal.

 

The trade and economic damage this causes within a couple of years would seriously shrink tax revenues and increase pressures on spending - possibly on top of an increased deficit if there's a post-election splurge.

 

In those circumstances, I really don't think any "left-wing economic policies" will last more than a year. At a time of shrinking revenues & high deficit, with difficult FTAs to negotiate, will the Tories really boost pay & public spending?

More likely, after covering increased essential spending, they'll prioritise Corporation Tax cuts and other sweeteners to attract global investors, while slashing regulations protecting workers' rights "to help Britain compete".

Labour voters planning to vote Tory to support Brexit or because Corbyn is a tosser need to seriously wake up!

 

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

Surely it's even worse they are voting in areas they just go to school in rather than their actual home?

 

Canterbury a prime example, historically Tory town, Tory people - gets a Labour MP for five years on votes from many who have fcuked off from the constituency within months of casting it.

 

That's a bit unfair. Students spend most of the year living where they study - and do so for 3-4 years, usually.

 

Plus, plenty of people "fcuk off" from constituencies without being students.

 

I just thought back to where I'd voted in general elections (and I wasn't a student for any of these).....

- 1983: Voted in Norwich, left for France 6 months later

- 1987: Voted in Lewisham, moved to Greenwich almost immediately

- 1992: Voted in Plymouth, moved to Salford 4 months later

- 1997: Voted in Hinckley, moved to Coventry almost immediately

- 2001: Voted in Coventry, moved to Oadby almost immediately

- 2005: Voted in Oadby, moved to Leicester a year later

(Stayed put in Leicester in 2010, 2015 & 2017, but likely to fcuk off within a year of any 2019 election.....probably right out of the country if we get the Hard Right Tory Govt I'm expecting) :S

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11 minutes ago, peach0000 said:

I think a lot of of people are really conflicted by the Brexit issue. They voted for something to happen then are being told by the party that's supposed to represent them that they didn't understand what they were voting for and lets re run the whole thing. Thats enough for a lot of people to switch. 

 

Also I personally wouldn't call the current tory government "pretty right wing", to me it's a lot more moderate that many tory governments before it. There seems to be a narrative at the moment that Boris is a mini Trump when it's simply not true. He's one of the most moderate Torys you'll ever hope to find.

I completely understand that and have always felt it would have been in Labour's interest to just get out as soon as possible after the vote had happened. It's more who the switch is for than people being frustrated enough to want to switch that I find astounding. I completely agree with your point about "understanding what they were voting for", most of the doom and gloom that was talked about happening if we voted leave (obviously) didn't happen anyway.

 

I don't agree, economically nothing has changed yet since the years of austerity which we have been suffering under. He may have quite socially liberal views but when I say left/right I mostly am talking about economics and most parties in the UK have been quite strongly right wing for some time.

Edited by bmt
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8 minutes ago, bmt said:

I completely understand that and have always felt it would have been in Labour's interest to just get out as soon as possible after the vote had happened. It's more who the switch is for than people being frustrated enough to want to switch that I find astounding. I completely agree with your point about "understanding what they were voting for", most of the doom and gloom that was talked about happening if we voted leave (obviously) didn't happen anyway.

 

I don't agree, economically nothing has changed yet since the years of austerity which we have been suffering under. He may have quite socially liberal views but when I say left/right I mostly am talking about economics and most parties in the UK have been quite strongly right wing for some time.

I find it hard not to agree with any of that. I think we're mostly on the same page. All I would say is for me (and a lot of people in my position) I voted to leave, I have always voted labour (apart from once when I lived in a marginal tory seat and voted Lib Dem), but now I see no one who represents my views. I'm not going to vote for a party that wants to rip up or re run the result of a fair democratic referendum just because they lost. So that leaves me with a choice of Conservative or Brexit party and I know which is the lesser of two evils in my mind unless I just don't vote for the first time ever which is becoming pretty likely.

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1 hour ago, MattP said:

Surely it's even worse they are voting in areas they just go to school in rather than their actual home?

 

Canterbury a prime example, historically Tory town, Tory people - gets a Labour MP for five years on votes from many who have fcuked off from the constituency within months of casting it.

I lived in Canterbury for a while.  There's a university and a college the size of a university.  Its a very young town as a result. Its entirely fair that students that reside there for the majority of the at least 3 years they are at uni get to vote.  

 

Only somebody wanting to take the government's side come what may would find it fairer to vote somewhere you spend the odd holiday and might never return to. 

 

Besides, most students are registered to vote in their university towns. It would be difficult not to disenfrachise many that might return to their home towns the day before the election.  

Edited by HappyHamza
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1 minute ago, peach0000 said:

I find it hard not to agree with any of that. I think we're mostly on the same page. All I would say is for me (and a lot of people in my position) I voted to leave, I have always voted labour (apart from once when I lived in a marginal tory seat and voted Lib Dem), but now I see no one who represents my views. I'm not going to vote for a party that wants to rip up or re run the result of a fair democratic referendum just because they lost. So that leaves me with a choice of Conservative or Brexit party and I know which is the lesser of two evils in my mind unless I just don't vote for the first time ever which is becoming pretty likely.

Yeah when you write it like that it is a pretty dour choice isn't it. I voted to remain but don't have hugely strong views on the issue, my preference would have been to remain in the EU but ignore some of its legislation (not a likely outcome I concede). I think I am going to vote ignoring the Brexit issue completely, as for me the environmental/climate issue dwarfs it in importance.

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3 minutes ago, bmt said:

Yeah when you write it like that it is a pretty dour choice isn't it. I voted to remain but don't have hugely strong views on the issue, my preference would have been to remain in the EU but ignore some of its legislation (not a likely outcome I concede). I think I am going to vote ignoring the Brexit issue completely, as for me the environmental/climate issue dwarfs it in importance.

Scientific issues in general and that in particular, really.

 

Unfortunately, as right as you are it's a minority viewpoint.

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It’s possible that despite all four main parties supporting a GE in December, it may not pass legislation 

 

the govt bill (unamended) could feasibly not obtain a majority (especially if it’s voted on first) 

 

the bills which are amended to include EU nationals and 16/17 y o could also potentially fail to obtain a majority 

 

can you imagine that happening .... would be the ultimate evidence that the HOC is completely broken .....

 

im astonished that some politicians are ridiculing the PM’s comment yesterday that this parliament has run it’s course on the basis that the queen’s speech was only two weeks ago - that’s just pedantic in the extreme - it’s run it’s course cos it cannot pass any meaningful legislation!
 

 

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2 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

:fc:

 

I've got so many it's the will of the people jokes lined up I'll have you out the country in 2 weeks tops.

 

I'll have to run them by Mark first mind. :dry::whistle:

 

Let's hope you're disappointed. Anything less than a Tory majority and you will be, I reckon.

 

A lot can happen during a campaign - for starters, Johnson is a loose cannon capable of blowing his own head off.

Then there's the matter of who turns out to vote just before Xmas, apart from the fanatics on either side & the lottery of four-way races & tactical voting.

 

As for getting rid of me with jokes, if Izzy & Wortho haven't managed it yet, I don't rate your chances.

In fact, I quite like bad jokes and serve up a few of my own. :D 

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15 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

It’s possible that despite all four main parties supporting a GE in December, it may not pass legislation 

 

the govt bill (unamended) could feasibly not obtain a majority (especially if it’s voted on first) 

 

the bills which are amended to include EU nationals and 16/17 y o could also potentially fail to obtain a majority 

 

can you imagine that happening .... would be the ultimate evidence that the HOC is completely broken .....

 

im astonished that some politicians are ridiculing the PM’s comment yesterday that this parliament has run it’s course on the basis that the queen’s speech was only two weeks ago - that’s just pedantic in the extreme - it’s run it’s course cos it cannot pass any meaningful legislation!
 

 

Seems like this could well happen

 

cue Benn Act V 2 !

 

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2 hours ago, HappyHamza said:

I lived in Canterbury for a while.  There's a university and a college the size of a university.  Its a very young town as a result. Its entirely fair that students that reside there for the majority of the at least 3 years they are at uni get to vote.  

 

Only somebody wanting to take the government's side come what may would find it fairer to vote somewhere you spend the odd holiday and might never return to. 

 

Besides, most students are registered to vote in their university towns. It would be difficult not to disenfrachise many that might return to their home towns the day before the election.  

That maybe true, but polling showed around 70pc of students actually voted in their home constituency, rather than where they were studying, at the last election.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

That maybe true, but polling showed around 70pc of students actually voted in their home constituency, rather than where they were studying, at the last election.

 

 

Cheers, I didn't know that.

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Amendments put forward include votes at 16 and for EU citizens (which is not allowed in a single other country in national elections), Remain MP's giving one last push to try and rig it.

 

Decisions of this magnitude can't be taken in an afternoon, ridiculous.

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7 minutes ago, MattP said:

Amendments put forward include votes at 16 and for EU citizens (which is not allowed in a single other country in national elections), Remain MP's giving one last push to try and rig it.

 

Decisions of this magnitude can't be taken in an afternoon, ridiculous.


I thought Johnson was all for Democracy! :P

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12 minutes ago, MattP said:

Amendments put forward include votes at 16 and for EU citizens (which is not allowed in a single other country in national elections), Remain MP's giving one last push to try and rig it.

 

Decisions of this magnitude can't be taken in an afternoon, ridiculous.

The EU bit is a bit cheeky given the timing. 

 

16 should have been the voting age for generations.  People can work, pay taxes and join the armed forces before they are 18. They should have the vote. There's a reason it's only the Tories that don't want that. 

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Hamza Canterbury has two university's with about 40000 students it does make up a major part of the population of the city and has helped the town buck the downward trend of the surrounding areas by keeping a fairly vibrant high street. but you must also remember that they don't pay any council tax which has caused a lot of resentment in the city. strangely having a large student population has kept the number of immigrants in the town down compared to Thanet and Dover but made rents very high. labour hold the seat at present and the local MP does a lot to promote her self at the university.  She is the only Labour MP in Kent. you have to bear in mind that some of the constituencies is Kent are wealthy but many are deprived areas to rival many areas of the north.

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16 minutes ago, MattP said:

Amendments put forward include votes at 16 and for EU citizens (which is not allowed in a single other country in national elections), Remain MP's giving one last push to try and rig it.

 

Decisions of this magnitude can't be taken in an afternoon, ridiculous.

Disgusting abuse of the situation.

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56 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

That maybe true, but polling showed around 70pc of students actually voted in their home constituency, rather than where they were studying, at the last election.

 

 

So potentially 30% of students - millions of voters - could be disenfranchised?

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20 minutes ago, twoleftfeet said:

Hamza Canterbury has two university's with about 40000 students it does make up a major part of the population of the city and has helped the town buck the downward trend of the surrounding areas by keeping a fairly vibrant high street. but you must also remember that they don't pay any council tax which has caused a lot of resentment in the city. strangely having a large student population has kept the number of immigrants in the town down compared to Thanet and Dover but made rents very high. labour hold the seat at present and the local MP does a lot to promote her self at the university.  She is the only Labour MP in Kent. you have to bear in mind that some of the constituencies is Kent are wealthy but many are deprived areas to rival many areas of the north.

 Why would people resent students for not paying council tax? They pay over the odds on rent to local property owners that have to pay council tax for the multi-tenanted properties,  as well as throwing hundreds of millions into the local economy.  It's the student population that allows many businesses to thrive and pay the business rates that allows the council to do other things.  Without the students Canterbury would be struggling, even with some tourism for the cathedral. 

 

And I went to UKC which is why I consider Canterbury christchurch to be a college 👍

Edited by HappyHamza
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