Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 Just now, Costock_Fox said: Presume you are now living in your cupboard under the stairs? Not quite, but I have stocked up on tinned food. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brucey Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Chrysalis said: So everyone has now recovered or died in Wuhan and the cruise ship? Odd as the stats show thousands are still infected there. The peak was weeks ago now and it takes an average of 2-3 weeks to die, so the number of new cases in Wuhan will not distort the figures anywhere near the degree you describe in your example / South Korea / Italy etc. The better example is the Diamond Princess. New cases on the ship obviously completely stopped once they removed everyone from it, so all / almost all of the ship deaths will have occurred already. 7 deaths out of 700 infected a month later, so that proportion isn’t going to change significantly. The 3.4% figure is from a published paper that has analysed the Wuhan data, I believe the same one that gave the death rate breakdown by age. Anyway this thread really should be merged with the general chat one, as we’re not talking about closed door games anymore. Edited 7 March 2020 by brucey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dylanlegend Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 2 minutes ago, Chrysalis said: You avoid all that by reporting the death rate as 1%. Which is what has been done. You reckon Bozza would visit these hospitals if the death rate was 30%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 so 693 have recovered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silva Fox Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 33 minutes ago, Chrysalis said: As I posted earlier, the media are actually understating it to avoid panic. Claiming death rates as low as 1-2% when they around 20-30%. If death rates were really 1% do you think china would have bolted people in their homes, built prefab hospitals and shut off a city? Infected doesnt mean survival, its undetermined and as such shouldnt be used as factual data for determining rate of deaths. And you know this how exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, dylanlegend said: You reckon Bozza would visit these hospitals if the death rate was 30%? He has to, hes the leader of the country. If I was running a country, a priority is to prevent panic. Do you think during times of crisis the media reports accurate news? the germans were apparently on the verge of breakthrough whilst their forces were been encircled. If you think I am wrong you only need to disprove it with factual data. Not just because "you are wrong because the sun says so". All I have done is analysed the data. Also I think the actual death rate is lower than 20%, I have stated earlier I accept there will be people infected but not in the figures, so its plausible those with light symptoms dont present themselves, have a higher survival rate, I accept that, however because we dont know how many of them there is, including them in stats is only ever going to be speculative only. Edited 7 March 2020 by Chrysalis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dylanlegend Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 2 minutes ago, Chrysalis said: so 693 have recovered? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ scroll to diamond princess: Of all cases with an outcome: 245 recovered 6 deaths 2.4% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentFox Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 All this talk that the end of the world is nigh - have I slipped into a match day thread by mistake? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Silva Fox said: And you know this how exactly? If you have to ask this question, you clearly havent read my posts. My numbers have been "fully" explained multiple times. But I suppose someone who thinks half of 100k is 3.5k, it isnt that surprising. Edited 7 March 2020 by Chrysalis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dylanlegend Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 1 minute ago, Chrysalis said: He has to, hes the leader of the country. If I was running a country, a priority is to prevent panic. Do you think during times of crisis the media reports accurate news? the germans were apaprently on the verge of breakthrough whilst their forces were been encircled. If you think I am wrong you only need to disprove it with factual data. Not just because "you are wrong because the sun says so". All i have done is analysed the data. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Where’s your data? Something that sadly has died out on forums over the years.... You sir are a ‘WUM’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st albans fox Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 1 minute ago, dylanlegend said: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ scroll to diamond princess: Of all cases with an outcome: 245 recovered 6 deaths 2.4% Get out of here with your facts ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silva Fox Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 Just now, Chrysalis said: If you have to ask this question, you clearly havent read my posts. My numbers have been "fully" explained multiple times. You're right I haven't and I have no intention of doing so. You can believe in armageddon if you like. I for one will sleep easy in my bed tonight. On that note goodnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Costock_Fox Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 8 minutes ago, Chrysalis said: Not quite, but I have stocked up on tinned food. You can’t wipe your arse with Spagetti hoops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, dylanlegend said: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ scroll to diamond princess: Of all cases with an outcome: 245 recovered 6 deaths 2.4% Good data, you made the effort thank you. 445 active cases means however no one should be claiming its all resolved. Also thank you for the website, its good, more data to look at. Edited 7 March 2020 by Chrysalis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 1 minute ago, Silva Fox said: You're right I haven't and I have no intention of doing so. You can believe in armageddon if you like. I for one will sleep easy in my bed tonight. On that note goodnight! If you cant make the effort then dont join the debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silva Fox Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 1 minute ago, Chrysalis said: If you cant make the effort then dont join the debate. I bet you're fun at parties! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 Just now, Silva Fox said: I bet you're fun at parties! I am not the best at social skill's I give you that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dylanlegend Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 2 minutes ago, Chrysalis said: Good data, you made the effort thank you. 445 active cases means however no one should be claiming its all resolved. The one thing that does seem a bit strange is in the USA: All cases with an outcome: 19 deaths 15 recovered So I see where some people are coming from... it makes you wonder about different strains etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 4 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said: You can’t wipe your arse with Spagetti hoops. True, although I do already have a lot of tissues, toilet paper etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, dylanlegend said: The one thing that does seem a bit strange is in the USA: All cases with an outcome: 19 deaths 15 recovered So I see where some people are coming from... it makes you wonder about different strains etc I missed the other post where you asked for my data source, the site I was taking from. https://covid19info.live/ I was using "outside mainland china" I posted the link last night. Edited 7 March 2020 by Chrysalis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dylanlegend Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 16 minutes ago, Chrysalis said: Not quite, but I have stocked up on tinned food. What if the main main purpertrators of the virus in the UK are tinned food packers? In that case you’re ****ed mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 Just now, dylanlegend said: What if the main main purpertrators of the virus in the UK are tinned food packers? In that case you’re ****ed mate If the virus can live inside tins made a few weeks ago, possibly yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brucey Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 Just now, dylanlegend said: The one thing that does seem a bit strange is in the USA: All cases with an outcome: 19 deaths 15 recovered So I see where some people are coming from... it makes you wonder about different strains etc It’s due to under-reporting of total cases, the situation in USA is a mess. The USA messed up their testing, CDC sent out contaminated test kits which caused weeks of testing delays. Loads of people including healthcare workers who got sick after direct contact with known cases still can’t get access to testing. 14 of the deaths are in a single nursing home btw - so particularly vulnerable elderly with higher death rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 Yeah they seem to be testing very few people, perhaps only cases that are already critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dylanlegend Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 At least we all got to see the mighty foxes lift the premier league trophy ay ;-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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