brucey Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 10 minutes ago, Chrysalis said: Interesting data, it seems to show similar amount of people died? but by letting it run riot the virus runs its course quicker. However st loius situation is clearly better as is a chance of vaccine the longer people get and even if the same amount of people die, an extra few months of life is something. Relevant graph: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 Yep that would be a very important reason as well, if you just let it run riot, then the entire health service can collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brucey Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Deeg67 said: Actually the mortality rate in South Korea, the country which is certainly the one with the reported infected numbers closest to reality due to their massive testing initiative, is 0.6%. That's probably closer to the true number in a country with advanced medical facilities which are readily available. It is true they are testing more and therefore there is less under-reporting of mild cases, but also the average time from symptom onset to death is 2-3 weeks, so a lot of the mild cases newly diagnosed today, contributing to the large denominator, may be dead in 2-3 weeks. The Diamond Princess ship is probably the best estimate we have, as everyone on there was tested multiple times, quarantined and followed up, so we know exact case numbers including mild/asymptomatic. It was also a few weeks ago now so we have pretty much most of the recovered/death outcomes. 6 deaths in 706 positive cases is nearer 1%. This is of course with immediate diagnosis and optimum medical care. The mortality rate in the general population, although slightly younger than the ship’s population, should be higher due to later diagnoses and soon-to-be-overwhelmed health systems. Edited 7 March 2020 by brucey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrysalis Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Deeg67 said: Actually the mortality rate in South Korea, the country which is certainly the one with the reported infected numbers closest to reality due to their massive testing initiative, is 0.6%. That's probably closer to the true number in a country with advanced medical facilities which are readily available. If you doing infected/deaths, thats flawed. https://covid19info.live/ There is a time lag between the growth rate of infections and the associated growth of recovery and deaths. Global So take for example the recovery rate, it is 54.8%. Deaths 3.4% Infected without either recovery or death 41.8% That 41.8% should be excluded from any calculations for the death rate, but its been included I assume to get the number down to help prevent panics. 54.8 divided by 3.4 = about 6% which is a lot lower than before so the recovery rate is improving at least. South Korea data Infected without any complete course 97.3% Recovered 2% Deaths 0.6% About a high 20's % death rate which is alarmingly high considering these guys are apparently also testing those with no symptoms. But its a very low % to use as a data sample. Outside mainland china. Infected 88.9% we disregard these. Recovered 9.2% Deaths 2% 21% death rate, this is the data set I used for my 20% comment so actually not improving. Edited 7 March 2020 by Chrysalis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfox Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Chrysalis said: Interesting data, it seems to show similar amount of people died? but by letting it run riot the virus runs its course quicker. However st loius situation is clearly better as is a chance of vaccine the longer people get and even if the same amount of people die, an extra few months of life is something. Looks like max 400 on the shallower graph and and double/ triple on the steeper graph… Would interesting to see the total figures…. But, there appears to be a marked difference? Where do you start/ stop with this? It’s not flu and it’s probably worth being cautious to a degree… Government policy seems to broadly sensible in that that you don’t fire your shots too early (never thought I’d find myself agreeing with BOJO!!!) I had swine flu (8 years back?) and it was god awful thing to have…. I’m not worried for myself so much, but, like many, I’m relatively mobile when it comes to work and I don’t fancy giving it to to other people… Edited 7 March 2020 by Wolfox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueharmie Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 I'm ready to meet my maker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsr-burnley Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 On 05/03/2020 at 18:55, rachhere said: We introduced the 'chicken wing' elbow tap at work yesterday. They should give it a go. Don't try the chicken wing elbow tap on Monday. If you do, watch Grealish roll on the floor, screaming in pain, and holding his face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49er Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 9 hours ago, 49er said: Our players have been self isolating for the past three months - staying well away from each other Brendan has yet to find a cure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49er Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 5 hours ago, blueharmie said: I'm ready to meet my maker. The milkman? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinekersLugs Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 All sports should be stopped RIGHT NOW !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 I’m thinking the PL trophy presentation will involve a helicopter, the trophy and parachute and an empty Anfield. Alternatively, Klopp standing on his own in the centre of the pitch and a couple of peeps from the PL riding over in a golf cart wearing contamination suits place the trophy on the ground by his feet, nod and drive away... Maybe the Liverpool squad will be allowed to stand outside more than 5 meters apart on the fringes of the pitch to watch. It’ll perhaps be filmed by drones flying over the empty stadium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Hankey Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 Two points; There is a story that over 70's will be barred from games, glad I'm only 69!! And more folk die of flu each year so I don't get to excited about all these technical details. Life is to be enjoyed not to be constantly worrying about hypothetical nonsense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoxesDeb Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 21 minutes ago, David Hankey said: Two points; There is a story that over 70's will be barred from games, glad I'm only 69!! And more folk die of flu each year so I don't get to excited about all these technical details. Life is to be enjoyed not to be constantly worrying about hypothetical nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st albans fox Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 The below 1% mortality rate seems reasonable with wider testing undertaken ....... but the much larger volumes of the general population infected means the numbers of dead will be notable, especially so with the elderly and underlying health issues ..... I would think that precautions at a match where the crowd are asked to arrive in a delayed manner so that there are fewer queues to get in and then the same at the end of the game would help to alleviate risk. In addition, if people didn’t drink much they would need to use the toilet a lot less. the club could employ extra staff with wipes near door handles/ hand rails there are steps that could be taken which would limit the risk of a big crowd and we could still attend the game. Perhaps banning away fans could be an initial step that the authorities take to show willing. Limiting unnecessary movement around the country will help the delay phase of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weller54 Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 7 hours ago, blueharmie said: I'm ready to meet my maker. Window cleaner? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corky Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 If it is serious enough to stop a group of people from attending, then we should all be stopped. Why take any risks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Quick Brown Fox Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 3 hours ago, LinekersLugs said: All sports should be stopped RIGHT NOW !!! Has this Cvnt never come across cancer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glorious Leicester Fan Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 16 minutes ago, browniefox said: Has this Cvnt never come across cancer? He says it’s the most frightening disease he has encountered in his career. considering he’s a leading Epidemiologist, the answer to your question is no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UHDrive Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 11 minutes ago, Glorious Leicester Fan said: He says it’s the most frightening disease he has encountered in his career. considering he’s a leading Epidemiologist, the answer to your question is no. Scaremongering cannot be allowed to happen, and that doctor is speaking of a matter from a position of bias towards being life long in science against the massive, intense and ongoing diplomatic accumulation of numbers/statistics/migration etc that is constantly evolving day by day between governments around the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deeg67 Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 This is a sport, not life and death. If there's any question of mass gatherings facilitating the spread of a global pandemic, we shouldn't even be arguing about this. Watch the game on TV or online. Japan has already declared that the J-League and NPB games will be played with no attendance. It just seems sensible and prudent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bayfox Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 1 minute ago, Deeg67 said: This is a sport, not life and death. If there's any question of mass gatherings facilitating the spread of a global pandemic, we shouldn't even be arguing about this. Watch the game on TV or online. Japan has already declared that the J-League and NPB games will be played with no attendance. It just seems sensible and prudent to me. I'm all for this if it means liverpool finally win the PL and can't have parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Quick Brown Fox Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 23 minutes ago, Glorious Leicester Fan said: He says it’s the most frightening disease he has encountered in his career. considering he’s a leading Epidemiologist, the answer to your question is no. A quick Google proves this to be bullshit... Epidemiologists attempt to determine what factors are associated with diseases (risk factors), and what factors may protect people or animals against disease (protective factors). The science of epidemiology was first developed to discover and understand possible causes of contagious diseases like smallpox, typhoid and polio among humans. It has expanded to include the study of factors associated with non-transmissible diseases like cancer, and of poisonings caused by environmental agents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinekersLugs Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 First Case confirmed at LRI ... patient sent home and into self quarantine ! He will be in morrison’s later I bet people are so stupid to be trusted to mange this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinekersLugs Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 1 hour ago, browniefox said: Has this Cvnt never come across cancer? Cancer isn’t a virus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Markyblue Posted 7 March 2020 Share Posted 7 March 2020 4 minutes ago, LinekersLugs said: Cancer isn’t a virus Try reading the full thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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