Coronavirus: Closed Door Matches

[dylanlegend]

It would be interesting to see the stats of normal flu death rate with the vaccines we currently have if the world.

 

Thoughts are that with a vaccine COVID-19 death rates would be the same as normal flu?

[Chrysalis]

I think over time with better treatment and vaccine it could drop significantly.

Edited 7 March 2020 by Chrysalis

[brucey]

Just now, dylanlegend said:

It would be interesting to see the stats of normal flu death rate with the vaccines we currently have if the world.

 

Thoughts are that with a vaccine COVID-19 death rates would be the same as normal flu?

Flu death stats were posted on page 6,

 

A vaccine will take 12-18 months to develop according to the manufacturers, so will only be of help if this becomes endemic and perpetually circulates.

[weller54]

17 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

You can’t wipe your arse with Spagetti hoops.

That's not strictly true..

You could but it might not be that effective.. plus the tomato sauce could cause issues?

[dylanlegend]

22 hours ago, brucey said:

It is true they are testing more and therefore there is less under-reporting of mild cases, but also the average time from symptom onset to death is 2-3 weeks, so a lot of the mild cases newly diagnosed today, contributing to the large denominator, may be dead in 2-3 weeks. 

 

The Diamond Princess ship is probably the best estimate we have, as everyone on there was tested multiple times, quarantined and followed up, so we know exact case numbers including mild/asymptomatic. It was also a few weeks ago now so we have pretty much most of the recovered/death outcomes. 6 deaths in 706 positive cases is nearer 1%. This is of course with immediate diagnosis and optimum medical care. The mortality rate in the general population, although slightly younger than the ship’s population, should be higher due to later diagnoses and soon-to-be-overwhelmed health systems.

 

This has probably been mentioned but I cba to look through everything but the average age of those on the diamond princess will be much higher than the world as a whole so not a great example, though I see what you’re saying 

[weller54]

5 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

I think over time with better treatment and vaccine it could drop significantly.

I'm hoping by that time there's only me and Rachel Riley left alive!

[foxinsocks]

Just now, weller54 said:

I'm hoping by that time there's only me and Rachel Riley left alive!

I am prepared to suck the poison out of her 

[brucey]

5 minutes ago, dylanlegend said:

This has probably been mentioned but I cba to look through everything but the average age of those on the diamond princess will be much higher than the world as a whole so not a great example, though I see what you’re saying 

Yeah I did mention the age thing in the last sentence of that post you quoted  Although the few thousand young crew members on board would have brought it down. Italy has quite an elderly population as well.

[dylanlegend]

4 minutes ago, brucey said:

Yeah I did mention the age thing in the last sentence of that post you quoted  Although the few thousand young crew members on board would have brought it down. Italy has quite an elderly population as well.

Oh yeh didn’t read it fully  does anyone? I would also question whether the healthcare in Japan is the same as the UK? I’m not saying it’s inferior just a genuine question.

 

Seems a bit daft to let a cruise ship connected with air con and confirmed COVID-19 cases to remain a quarantined place. Surely they’ve have been better moving to isolated facilities

[brucey]

5 minutes ago, dylanlegend said:

Oh yeh didn’t read it fully  does anyone? I would also question whether the healthcare in Japan is the same as the UK? I’m not saying it’s inferior just a genuine question.

 

Seems a bit daft to let a cruise ship connected with air con and confirmed COVID-19 cases to remain a quarantined place. Surely they’ve have been better moving to isolated facilities

Japan has got a pretty low death rate given their very elderly population, so particularly given how the NHS is already constantly at capacity, I’d say it’s at least as good.

 

Yeah at least everyone has learned now that keeping everyone on that ship was a massive mistake.

 

Can we merge threads please mods?

 

[Wymsey]

How about other areas where there's crowds - such as busy pubs and restaurants, as mentioned supermarkets, office workplaces, busy shopping centres? - Are we going to be advised to avoid these 'normal' activities to try and contain this specific virus?

 

As much of a concern this Coronavirus appears to be, even in its relatively early days since the word has been mentioned via the media, do feel that any further precautions may affect many businesses and people's lives who aren't directly/unlikely affected by the virus.

 

Edited 7 March 2020 by Wymsey

[Stephen Hughes]

Just now, Wymsey said:

How about other things where there's crowds - such as busy pubs and restaurants, as mentioned supermarkets, office workplaces, busy shopping centres? - Are we going to be advised to avoid these 'normal' activities to try and contain this specific virus?

 

As much of a concern this Coronavirus appears to be, even in its relatively early days since the word has been mentioned via the media, do feel that any further precautions may affect many businesses and people's lives who aren't directly/unlikely affected by the virus.

 

Restaurants don’t attract 30k people, not the ones I go to anyway. I’m not agreeing with playing behind closed doors is the answer, but I certainly don’t know what the answer is.
 

It is clearly difficult on what to do and how to contain if it is that infectious it will spread no matter what. 
 

I was planning to go Russia in April and certainly do not think they are going to let me in. 

[fox_favourite]

Liverpool lift the trophy in an empty stadium. 

[KrefelderFox666]

There are benefits to self isolating. You won't get hit by a bus and die. Unless the bus drives into your front room.

[JamesfromlondonLCFC]

1 hour ago, joachim1965 said:

Definitely won't die? 

How do you know that. 

I don't know how old you are but some relatively young people have died.

10% of sufferers end up in intensive care but hey, hope you have a great holiday.

can say this about a lot of illnesses. im 25, have no health concerns outside of it, so it seems unlikely to affect me too greatly. my only concern would be people around me that could be vulnerable, so ill just self isolate. but cool man enjoy living in fear of a mild cough  

[JamesfromlondonLCFC]

before someone comes like 'oooh its not just a mild cough' i know im just pissing about wind ya neck in 

[Vardinio'sCat]

As I understand it, the problem is not so much the reported death rate, as it is the number of victims (10%ish?- maybe) who need serious medical help/intensive care to survive. That potentially leads to a clogged up health system and tough choices.

 

The Italian doctors in Lombardy are warning the rest of Europe to be prepared, and I think preparation (rather than panic) is the key concept. At least the UK has had plenty of warnings and some time, to see what has happened elsewhere.

 

We like this veteran medic John Campbell, he is a calming no-BS voice of experience and reason, and he does have concerns about the rather reactive approach we seem to be using against this virus.

 

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg

[Deeg67]

4 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

If only we had a willy puller emoji, I've never seen a better time for it to be used 

There seriously isn't a rating emoji to do justice to some of the stupidity we're seeing on this topic.

[twister]

Italy are about to force 16 million people to say indoors from sunday

 

Hold your hats everyone this shit just got serious.

[OntarioFox]

On 05/03/2020 at 13:48, Fox92 said:

PL have scrapped the pre match handshake, just been announced.

 

However, and I don’t understand this, players will line up but not shake hands

 

I’ve never liked it anyway, let them run out like the old days.

They're just going to give a friendly sneeze in each other's direction, that'll do it

[Smudge]

 

 

[simFox]

3 hours ago, brucey said:

The peak was weeks ago now and it takes an average of 2-3 weeks to die, so the number of new cases in Wuhan will not distort the figures anywhere near the degree you describe in your example / South Korea / Italy etc.

 

The better example is the Diamond Princess. New cases on the ship obviously completely stopped once they removed everyone from it, so all / almost all of the ship deaths will have occurred already. 7 deaths out of 700 infected a month later, so that proportion isn’t going to change significantly.

 

The 3.4% figure is from a published paper that has analysed the Wuhan data, I believe the same one that gave the death rate breakdown by age.

Anyway this thread really should be merged with the general chat one, as we’re not talking about closed door games anymore.

 

But loads of people were taken off that ship and repatriated, who then caught it whilst in other countries.

 

Besides, that isn't quite the issue.

 

The problem is having no beds and overwhelmed facilities in the hospital's. Care workers overcoming to illness, schools off so kids needing looking after at home. That's when things become a problem and the death rate increases, simply due to us not being able to look after everyone.

[brucey]

1 hour ago, simFox said:

The problem is having no beds and overwhelmed facilities in the hospital's. Care workers overcoming to illness, schools off so kids needing looking after at home. That's when things become a problem and the death rate increases, simply due to us not being able to look after everyone.

Already happening in Lombardy in a major way

Coronavirus: «We are also creating intensive therapies in the corridors»

by Simona Ravizza

«By now we are forced to create intensive therapies in the corridor, in the operating rooms, in the recovery rooms. We gutted entire hospital wards to make room for the seriously ill. One of the best healthcare in the world, the Lombard one, is one step away from collapse ». 

Antonio Pesenti , 68, is the coordinator of the Lombardy Region Crisis Unit for intensive care. Publicly praised by the scientist Alberto Mantovani as one of the best Italian men of science, he is a physician-resuscitator with strong nerves, used to governing any type of emergency. But at nine o'clock on Saturday evening, after 17 days of non-stop work, his voice is broken by tiredness and worry: "If the population does not understand that they must stay at home, the situation will become catastrophic ».

 

She, together with colleagues in the reanimations, is the author of a very harsh letter to the government of Giuseppe Conte: "The scientific projections are very alarming". What do you mean by that? 
«The picture is of such gravity as to require an increase in resuscitation places up to ten times the current availability. The number of hospitalized persons expected on March 26 is 18 thousand Lombard patients, of which between 2,700 and 3,200 will require hospitalization in intensive care. Today there are already over a thousand patients between those in resuscitation and those who risk getting worse from one minute to the next. We monitor the situation 24 hours a day ».

 

In the letter he talks about risks not only for coronavirus patients, but also for everyone else: «The survival not only of Covid-19 patients is in danger - you write -, but also of that part of the population that still addresses the health system ». 
«So far in Lombardy the ambulances have always arrived in 8 minutes, now they risk not arriving within an hour. A huge danger for those who have a heart attack, and not only »
 

In short, Lombardy's emergency-urgency system is no longer able to guarantee ordinary standards. 
«Unfortunately, it is the truth. I am not saying this to alarm the citizens, but to make everyone understand that it is not the time to go out, to go shopping or to go and drink the spritz, as we have been saying for days now. Social relations must be changed, with the shops and neighborhood markets closed. In Milan, where I live, at least so far there have been too many people needlessly around. You only have to go out to buy food . "
 

The beds in intensive care units increase day by day, but they are never enough. 
«We are creating Covid-19 blocks everywhere. By now all the main hospitals in Lombardy have been involved, at least fifty. As known, infected patients cannot be mixed with others. It means having resuscitations where everything happens with particular protection systems: from the filtered air to doctors and nurses who always dress and undress in the presence of another person to check that the procedures are correct because a minimal distraction is enough to become infected ».
 

In what conditions are you working? 
«We work harnesses to protect ourselves from the virus. After 4 hours we are sweating soaked, the movements are slowed down and we have to get out of the resuscitation to hydrate ourselves. We are doing everything we can, and even more, but the contagions must be stopped. The only way is prevention. "

 

In one of the last meetings with the ICU doctors there were those who failed to hold back tears. 
«By profession we are used to dealing with any situation in cold blood. But only those who are living in the front line can understand the drama of the events ».

 

Is it likely to think of transporting seriously ill people to the rest of Italy? 
«They are very complex patients to move. Both for their physical conditions and for the protections that must be taken in order not to infect us. I see it difficult. "

[Guest Markyblue]

5 hours ago, twister said:

Italy are about to force 16 million people to say indoors from sunday

 

Hold your hats everyone this shit just got serious.

They are not though are they. They are being told to stay in the region which is entirely different to being told to stay indoors but whatever. 

[weller54]

6 hours ago, twister said:

Italy are about to force 16 million people to say indoors from sunday

 

Hold your hats everyone this shit just got serious.

Indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors indoors..

.. fvck it.. I'm going out!!