Anyone got any evidence of teams who have blown huge leads and still gone on to succeed?

[Oasisedup]

17 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

11 straight wins will calm me down

Surely you'd be a little more relaxed after the 10th

[Ric Flair]

1 minute ago, Oasisedup said:

Surely you'd be a little more relaxed after the 10th

6 wins on the spin would put us possibly only 1-2 more off guaranteed promotion.

[BillyFOX12]

43 minutes ago, davieG said:

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/sport/football/match-reports/qpr-chant-hits-leicester-citys-9138789

 

ByJordan Blackwell
08:00, 3 MAR 2024UPDATED08:21, 3 MAR 2024

 

 

In the past 30 years, just one second-tier champion has had a run of three or more consecutive league losses. That was Reading in 2011-12. But their four defeats on the bounce came in August and September, right at the start of the campaign, before they were in a promotion push. Otherwise, it just doesn’t happen. Sure, nearly every second-tier title-winner over the past 30 years has had a blip, but they don’t lose three in a row at the business-end of the season.

 

They have to prove they are a rarity: a side that can lose three matches in a row and still win the league. You have to go back 53 years to find the last time a second-division champion lost three games in a row in the second half of a season. Of course, it was Leicester City. They responded by going the rest of the campaign unbeaten. It’s time for a repeat.

@Ric Flair This tells you everything you need to know.

[Heskey2011]

50 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

We are basically relying on Wilfred Ndidi to maintain a 2.5 points per game when he returns next week to get us over the line.

 

 

Hopefully he plays Tuesday night.

[Ric Flair]

6 minutes ago, BillyFOX12 said:

@Ric Flair This tells you everything you need to know.

It's a good article but it doesn't give many examples and is specific to winning the title. Right now I think most would snap your hand off for 2nd 😂

[Oasisedup]

8 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

6 wins on the spin would put us possibly only 1-2 more off guaranteed promotion.

Yeah I wasn't being entirely serious. I'd be amazed if 6 wins wasn't enough for promotion.

 

Bookies have us 1/2 for the title FWIW.

[Sly]

Didn’t Blackburn in 94/95 lose 3 of the last 5 games, however still won the Premier League? 

Edited 3 March by Sly

[Beachyboy]

2 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

Only want evidence of football teams that had a right old wobble, gave themselves a whack and got the job done down the stretch.

 

2008/09 vibes rather than 2012/13.

Liverpool a few seasons back, pulled it back at our expense for a CL place, they went on a 5 game streak without a win and another 4 game streak in 20/21 and still finished 3rd. 8 wins 2 draws from the last 10 games.

Edited 3 March by Beachyboy

[Foxin_Mad]

2 hours ago, Mickyblueeyes said:

We’ll get the playoffs and hopefully finish third to play whoever finished 6th. The question is, if we do manage to negotiate two games in the semi, do we have the grit to see through a great Wembley atmosphere. Who actually stands up ? I don’t see anyone. 
 

The performance yesterday hurt so much because it was as clear day that this team will not be in the top 2 come May. I could literally put money on it. Even those who have overcome adversity before in this league, which were far stronger clubs in terms of mentality than ours haven’t made it into the top 2, they’ve scraped the play offs. Yesterday was huge and we fluffed it

I suggest to everyone we do put money on it. At least it will numb the pain. The bookies seem utterly deluded at the moment with our odds. My next bet is a acca next week with Leeds, Ipswich Southampton to win, us lose or draw both games! Then if the ultimate disappointment happens I can at least get obliterated and eat takeaways. 

[Oasisedup]

1 minute ago, Foxin_Mad said:

I suggest to everyone we do put money on it. At least it will numb the pain. The bookies seem utterly deluded at the moment with our odds. My next bet is a acca next week with Leeds, Ipswich Southampton to win, us lose or draw both games! Then if the ultimate disappointment happens I can at least get obliterated and eat takeaways. 

Yeah the bookies with no emotional investment whatsoever are the deluded ones.

 

Thankfully us fans are able to assess the probability of us bottling it with cool heads and clear-eyed objectivity.

[Fear Of The Fox]

2 hours ago, ozvaldo said:

See you all in the Chammo next season. 
We’re blowing this. And we don’t have the edge and spirit for a play off battle. 
 

Strap yoursens in for another horrific 46 game season…for at least the next 6 years.

So it's going to be another 287 Championship games. I'll be patient. 

[Death by Football]

I doubt there’ll be many examples of blowing leads like ours because it’s extremely rare to build a lead like we have/had in the first place. It’ll only take another win to clear some of the negativity and get us back on track and if Ricky and Wilf can get fit and stay fit we have every chance of reversing the trend and hanging on to win. I think we’ve been guilty of underestimating ourselves and over estimating the competition all season. 

[Tuna]

3 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

Only want evidence of football teams that had a right old wobble, gave themselves a whack and got the job done down the stretch.

 

2008/09 vibes rather than 2012/13.

Burton Albion when they won the conference 

 

Clough left mid season and Roy McFarland took over, limped over the line in the end

[worth_the_wait]

Leeds Utd - old Div 1  (1973-74).

 

They went 29 games undefeated from the start of the season.

Then had a right wobble ... won 1 drew 2 and lost 4 of their next 7 games.  (including a 1-4 home defeat to Burnley)

But pulled themselves together with 4 wins and 2 draws from the last 6 games to win the league.  (comfortably, in the end)

[KingsX]

1 hour ago, Foxin_Mad said:

I suggest to everyone we do put money on it. At least it will numb the pain. The bookies seem utterly deluded at the moment with our odds. My next bet is a acca next week with Leeds, Ipswich Southampton to win, us lose or draw both games! Then if the ultimate disappointment happens I can at least get obliterated and eat takeaways. 

 

Whoever thinks the bookie is "utterly deluded" is the bookie's most lucrative customer.  Their impartial experts and computer algorithms are not capable of delusion. 

 

Punters who bet acca's are the next-most-lucrative customers.

 

On a single match you are getting 7% worse odds than the actual real odds of that happening. By the time you get to a six leg accumulator if the bookies are giving you odds of 51.00 (50/1) the fair odds would actually be 76.00 (75/1).   https://patrickjamesoneill.medium.com/why-betting-accumulators-arent-as-good-as-they-seem-d449de75cb9f

[davieG]

62/63 we were 1st/2nd coming into the last 5 games and lost all of them and finished 5th

[Nalis]

1 minute ago, davieG said:

62/63 we were 1st/2nd coming into the last 5 games and lost all of them and finished 5th

I remember seeing this stat about this time in 2016, really didnt help my already nervous stressful state that we'd mess it up 

[Supergray22]

2 hours ago, Oasisedup said:

Yeah I wasn't being entirely serious. I'd be amazed if 6 wins wasn't enough for promotion.

 

Bookies have us 1/2 for the title FWIW.

Looking at the fixtures six could definitely do it but I’d be more confident seven is the necessary total for us. Leeds definitely seem to have the better run in and Southampton play Ipswich as well as ourselves. One thing for sure is that all four clubs in the frame will drop more points so it is all to play for and we are still standing pretty. Tuesday is massive.  

[Supergray22]

1 minute ago, Nalis said:

I remember seeing this stat about this time in 2016, really didnt help my already nervous stressful state that we'd mess it up 

Edited 3 March by Supergray22

[Nalis]

Just now, Supergray22 said:

And we lost the cup final. 

History could repeat itself 

[davieG]

30 minutes ago, Nalis said:

History could repeat itself 

Favourites for the final against a poorly performing Man U 

[Paninistickers]

57 minutes ago, KingsX said:

 

Whoever thinks the bookie is "utterly deluded" is the bookie's most lucrative customer.  Their impartial experts and computer algorithms are not capable of delusion. 

 

Punters who bet acca's are the next-most-lucrative customers.

 

On a single match you are getting 7% worse odds than the actual real odds of that happening. By the time you get to a six leg accumulator if the bookies are giving you odds of 51.00 (50/1) the fair odds would actually be 76.00 (75/1).   https://patrickjamesoneill.medium.com/why-betting-accumulators-arent-as-good-as-they-seem-d449de75cb9f

Bookies just go whatever way the wind is blowing though. 

 

Like in game betting. Man U today statistically had a 12 % chance of winning, then they scored and hey ho, the odds changed to a 33% chance of winning

 

Basically bookies never lose coz they just change their opinion at a drop of a hat. 

[Tuna]

The Burton story is quite interesting (from wikipedia):

 

In January 2009, with Burton 13 points clear at the top of the table, Clough left the club to become the manager of Derby County, with Roy McFarland installed as caretaker manager until the end of the season. Despite this managerial change, Burton went on to set a league record for the most consecutive wins, and in February 2009, when the team was 19 points clear at the top of the table, Conference sponsors Blue Square declared Burton the winners of the 2008–09 title in a public relations stunt, in which they paid out all bets. Following that announcement, the club saw their lead reduced week by week, but secured promotion to the Football League in the final game of the season, despite losing 2–1 away to Torquay United, when Cambridge United could only manage a goalless draw to Altrincham. At the end of the season Roy McFarland left the club and was replaced by Paul Peschisolido, with Gary Rowett acting as his assistant.

[Oasisedup]

45 minutes ago, Supergray22 said:

Looking at the fixtures six could definitely do it but I’d be more confident seven is the necessary total for us. Leeds definitely seem to have the better run in and Southampton play Ipswich as well as ourselves. One thing for sure is that all four clubs in the frame will drop more points so it is all to play for and we are still standing pretty. Tuesday is massive.  

Agreed and we should be more than capable of winning 7 of the remaining games. 

[Oasisedup]

5 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

Bookies just go whatever way the wind is blowing though. 

 

Like in game betting. Man U today statistically had a 12 % chance of winning, then they scored and hey ho, the odds changed to a 33% chance of winning

 

Basically bookies never lose coz they just change their opinion at a drop of a hat. 

Yes, bookies typically change odds when probabilities change. That is literally the point.

 

Currently, according to them, the implied probability of us winning the league is 66.67%. And that's the best odds you can find. The majority have us around 70% or higher.

 

The implied probability of us getting promoted is over 90%.