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Posted
On 24/10/2026 at 22:50, st albans fox said:

I’ve always felt that political views are a circle and the extreme on either flank meet on the opposite side of the circle to the centre. So the ‘facists’ of the right and left are effectively close to each other, despite having opposing base political viewpoints. 

And an additional wrinkle with this part of horseshoe theory is those on the extremes of the spectrum tend not to think that they are, which leads to all kinds of argument. 

 

The Overton Window can be a very tricky thing.

  • Like 2
Posted
53 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckpdgy6pl7xlo

 

In other electoral news, looks like events in Israel remain too close to call. 

 

The rather sad and worrying thing in that article though is how many young people are apparently being corrupted into the sociopathy of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. Which means that those two, to say nothing of others, will likely retain their political power, with all the violent consequences that entails. 

They will only retain that political power if netenyahu makes an even larger comeback than Lula managed. 

of course we know that those polled tend to underplay their support for the right but only a day or so to wait. 
 

polymarket have probabilities of next pm -  eisenkot around 50/52% and netenyahu 27/29%.  horse trading post election could see some unexpected outcomes. Tbh, given the attitude of any pm won’t be much different in foreign policy,  it’s the domestic side with the fate of those arseholes you mentioned that is relevant. 
and another election in the spring as the outcome would not be a surprise which maintains the status quo for another 7 months min. 

Posted
1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

They will only retain that political power if netenyahu makes an even larger comeback than Lula managed. 

of course we know that those polled tend to underplay their support for the right but only a day or so to wait. 
 

polymarket have probabilities of next pm -  eisenkot around 50/52% and netenyahu 27/29%.  horse trading post election could see some unexpected outcomes. Tbh, given the attitude of any pm won’t be much different in foreign policy,  it’s the domestic side with the fate of those arseholes you mentioned that is relevant. 
and another election in the spring as the outcome would not be a surprise which maintains the status quo for another 7 months min. 

I'm thinking that regardless of who is in charge, given the way the electoral system works over there whoever ends up in charge will have to end up giving those two bastards, or some folks just like them, something. 

 

I hope that I'm wrong, though. 

Posted
1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

I'm thinking that regardless of who is in charge, given the way the electoral system works over there whoever ends up in charge will have to end up giving those two bastards, or some folks just like them, something. 

 

I hope that I'm wrong, though. 

if the strong right form a govt then yes - the far right members will keep their positions 

if the right form a govt then they’ll be nowhere near govt 

 

there isn’t a lef of any consequence which is a political shame given the history of politics in that country


There is a possibility that the Arab list will have to be part of the next govt if netenyahu is not to be PM   That will confuse a lot of the global left. 

Posted
7 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

I don't have a lot of sympathy for Harry & Megan generally, with their contradictions of wanting good press but not bad press and expecting it as their right.  You have to feel for them this week with the awful allegations about her dad.  No one gets to pick their parents, and it must be horrific to find out such a thing about someone you loved.

Agreed. If proven. However, the story of the allegations currently has more holes than a colander. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

if the strong right form a govt then yes - the far right members will keep their positions 

if the right form a govt then they’ll be nowhere near govt 

 

there isn’t a lef of any consequence which is a political shame given the history of politics in that country


There is a possibility that the Arab list will have to be part of the next govt if netenyahu is not to be PM   That will confuse a lot of the global left. 

I guess we'll find out soon enough - like I said, I hope that I'm wrong, the amount of youth that are apparently being conditioned to hate, and, in due course, to kill, is worrying. 

Posted
1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

I guess we'll find out soon enough - like I said, I hope that I'm wrong, the amount of youth that are apparently being conditioned to hate, and, in due course, to kill, is worrying. 

Young people tend to be more malleable than older ones. 
so it’s not a lost generation yet 

  • Like 2
Posted (edited)

Incredible news in Serbia which feels very strange too 

 

The gangland boss Vucic concedes but it feels weird without a fight given how he’s controlled Serbia’s ‘democracy’ for so long. The media on his side. Putin in the shadows. Links to the army and effective parlimiltaries
 

Which way will Serbia look? Towards the EU to open itself for investment and/or tourism? Or will it keep close its big brother Russia? Worry is that it’s a complete anti Vucic / anti corruption vote with no path to the future 

Edited by CosbehFox
Posted
3 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

Incredible news in Serbia which feels very strange too 

 

The gangland boss Vucic concedes but it feels weird without a fight given how he’s controlled Serbia’s ‘democracy’ for so long. The media on his side. Putin in the shadows. Links to the army and effective parlimiltaries
 

Which way will Serbia look? Towards the EU to open itself for investment and/or tourism? Or will it keep close its big brother Russia? 

I’m reading some quite differing viewpoints on the ‘student list’.  A modern day ‘western democracy’ being able to convincingly change simply on the basis that we aren’t him is a bit mad.  But then this is a region where democracy is still young. 

Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, leicsmac said:

And an additional wrinkle with this part of horseshoe theory is those on the extremes of the spectrum tend not to think that they are, which leads to all kinds of argument. 

 

The Overton Window can be a very tricky thing.

 

17 hours ago, st albans fox said:

A few elections around the world this week

 

today has seen the ‘student list’ taking Serbia with the incumbent conceding, lula v bolsanaro is currently unclear in Brazil and Tuesday sees the democratic mess that is an Israeli prop rep election begin its undoubted lengthy period of negotiations begin once the polls close. 

I'm still agnostic to horseshoe theory, but I do understand it more nowadays. I have a colleague who grew up in Azerbaijan and who was 17 when the Soviet Union fell and she was just saying a couple of weeks ago how much Trump and Musk are so much like the old communist dictators of the Soviet era in what they do, say and how they do things and conduct themselves, although their "enemies of the people" targets they set up are not all the same (although some like the education systems, teachers and University professors remain the same).

 

And it's not hard to look at famous people like Russell Brand or John Lydon who've drastically and publicly swung from the hard left peace and love anarchists to the hard right MAGA types in recent years and see they still endlessly trott out all the same meaningless lines about "being against the Liberal elite of the schools and universities" and "standing up for the working class being screwed by the man" despite the fact the target of fheir ire has changed.

Edited by Sampson
  • Like 3
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, st albans fox said:

I’m reading some quite differing viewpoints on the ‘student list’.  A modern day ‘western democracy’ being able to convincingly change simply on the basis that we aren’t him is a bit mad.  But then this is a region where democracy is still young. 

It's Serbia! Nuance. Visiting there is an education but leaves more questions than answers. In February, I left Belgrade Central Station and the entire transport network just stopped (it's free but the students were protesting again). 

 

A country what overthrown Slobodan Milosevic but equally celebrates him at times and the action carried out by NATO/US pickles all of that. Vucic is a Milosevic man, he controlled the media for him. That was the biggest criticism of Milosevic, the constant propaganda yet the nation elected the man behind it all. Plenty of things he said occurred to him that the public believed to be lies. 

 

The difficulty with the Student List is that the active, more militant side of the protest will push I suspect for something far more liberal than is actually available. I don't think Serbia's outlook geopolitically will change that much - blow kisses at the EU whilst sitting in Putin's home. However, what you may get is something which is far more democratic with a free media. The presidential election be interesting as its always been nation defined by a figurehead. 

 

 

Edited by CosbehFox
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted

He said that a whole back. It's hard to tell, but I think it was a joke, it's so hard to tell. More worrying was the reaction. 

 

At the end of the day though, you can call it what you like, doesn't make it that.

Posted
2 hours ago, FoyleFox said:

Felon47's latest rebrand idea....

 

 

 

He can call the American national waters of the Atlantic what he likes 

He’ll get so confused when he realises he can try and change the pacific aswell …….

Posted
1 hour ago, filthyfox said:

FINALLY!  A benefit of Brexit!

Cheaper gurkhins!

Dipped in marmalade!

 

Both essentials to be stocked for when the Floods/Storms/AI takeover/Russian Hackers drive us down to our bunkers! 
 

 

Posted
19 hours ago, CosbehFox said:

Interesting to see the narrative change on social

media around known divisive characters in the replies. It’s almost as if someone has turned off the bot farm 

What is this in reference to?

Posted

Turn out in the Israeli GE is highest since 1969 at this time of the day

its also at very high levels amongst the Arab communities that tend not to vote much as they almost never get their parties into govt or with any influence 

 

this time could be different and they seem to be responding.

 

this should be bad news for the incumbent and his percentage chance of being the next pm after the coalition negotiations has dropped from steady 28/30% up until this morning to 20/22%. 

 

Until the exit polls around 8pm our time, we can’t be too sure of anything. 

  • Sad 1
Posted

Oh goody, I've had the very first copy of The Reformer, 'The Newspaper of Reform UK' put through my door, which is 'FREE FOR PATRIOTS' (although no clues as to how non patriots will be billed).

 

Headlines include CLACTON RESULT: FARAGE 22,239 ESTABLISHMENT 0, STOP THE BOATS? SEND IN THE NAVY!, NEW DEAL TO SEAL BORDERS.

 

I don't know when this went to press but there's a voting intention poll that is either made up or about 3 months out of date.

 

I read the thing cover to cover in about 3 minutes and I'm absolutely mystified why they're paying money* to distribute this in a neighbourhood where they'll get approximately zero votes

 

 

 

*Not actually a mystery, they've got money to burn

Posted

Bolsonaro Jr told to surrender his passport by the Brazilian authorities. 

 

Note to various other world players who consider themselves democracies: this is how you deal with people who attempt to subvert the democratic process. 

  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

Oh goody, I've had the very first copy of The Reformer, 'The Newspaper of Reform UK' put through my door, which is 'FREE FOR PATRIOTS' (although no clues as to how non patriots will be billed).

 

Headlines include CLACTON RESULT: FARAGE 22,239 ESTABLISHMENT 0, STOP THE BOATS? SEND IN THE NAVY!, NEW DEAL TO SEAL BORDERS.

 

I don't know when this went to press but there's a voting intention poll that is either made up or about 3 months out of date.

 

I read the thing cover to cover in about 3 minutes and I'm absolutely mystified why they're paying money* to distribute this in a neighbourhood where they'll get approximately zero votes

 

 

 

*Not actually a mystery, they've got money to burn

My copy in the recycling bin unread 

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