Madeleine McCann

[Ultra]

If Madeleine is still alive, it's quite possible she may have been smuggled to Africa.

There have been reports of sightings in Morocco. These could and should have been followed up, even if nothing came of them.

[Leicfox]

Interesting theories on the dog scent tracking. Police dogs are highly skilled at this work and I believe they are trained to ignore conflicting scents, but maybe it is because of the mass of smells in that area that they can no longer trace her scent.

Lets not forget that under Portuguese Judicial law they cannot disclose anything relating to the investigation, so who knows what information the police have that they are not making public. These little bits and bobs the media get are just part of the full picture.

It is suggested in this theory that she went looking for her parents that the first person she encountered just happened to be one of the very very few people in this Wolrd that would take advantage of that situation rather than go looking right away to return her to her parents.

I suppose the main difference in this theory is that is makes the crime an opportunist rather than planned one.

The reason it is odd that Murat is talking to the Russian around the time of the abduction is because the Russian guy has denied having any contact with Murat that evening. In addition there were British holidaymakers going door to door a little while after the girl's dissapearance and knocked on doors adjacent to Murat's home, where his mother says he was all evening. Yet Murat claims he did not know anything of the abduction until the next morning.

In addition whitnesses claim Murat was seen walking about by some of the locals searching for Madeleine that night, contradicting his mother's claim he was at home all evening.

All this is circumstantial of course and neither links or detaches these two men to the case, but it does show they are not telling the truth.

The opportunist theory would of course point to an altogether more sinister motive, and unfortunately, likely outcome.

As regards the contradictions in the Murat's stories, they could be clarified easily enough, and quite possibly revolve around the semantics of language and subsequent reporting. If his Mum says he was at home all evening, she could easily be referring to the period in which the girl went missing, as she'd only be interested in accounting for this period of time, especially if there's an inherent allegation in the question. After all once the alarm is raised, Murat is presumebly seen by many people and doesn't neec to account for his movements.

If they've knocked on doors adjacent, but not Murat's then it's still possible he knew nothing of what would have been a missing child search, rather than an abduction case at this point. A bit of confusion might have occurred if he were asked about a missing person and an abduction etc I can see how I might have reported to someone that I was looking for a missing person, and then told someone else that I only became aware of an abduction the morning after etc

The link to the Russian is puzzling, but I wouldn't be too surprised if there was a minor criminal element going on between the two, (what are they afterall) real estate and internet, something where the Russian chap doesn't really want to come to the attention of authorities etc It's certainly not unheard of for a much bigger investigation to suddenly cast light on some smaller operators. Was the conversation between the two phone records? If so working out whose telling the truth would be straight forward.

At the end of the day, if they can't provide any forensic evidence, (and that's not say they won't), then bringing a case is going to be very difficult. To date they haven't, and if Murat came into any opportune contact then something would show up. Without this though, the case weakens. That's not say Murat and the Russian might be up to no good of sorts, but it probably isn't child related.

[Mack]

Some good points made.

I'm not sure about Murat. He was involved in traslation for the Police so he was party to quite a bit of inside information right after the abduction.

If he knows that the Police have nothing on him then he could just play the innocent and watch the case stall.

I see the Potuguese Police are now claiming that the large reward on offer is hampering their efforts as it is turning up too many leads

The stark difference in approach to Police work in Portugal compared to here is without doubt a source of much frustration.

Sadly this weekend has seen a major cooling in the media's attention to the case and unless a major development occurs within the next few days I can see the major media organisations pulling out their teams in favour of other stories.

[Bluefoxtim]

There's only so long the news coverage can cut to a reporter in Portugal to say "No developments, although they are following leads and doing the best they can".

[Daggers]

If Madeleine is still alive, it's quite possible she may have been smuggled to Africa.

There have been reports of sightings in Morocco. These could and should have been followed up, even if nothing came of them.

You really shouldn't post while drunk.

Seriously.

[Katy]

Anyone else feel slightly uneasy with the 'happy family unit' pictures the McCanns have realised? It's like the focus is being turned away from Madeleine and onto the parents.

I don't like it. I know they have to have a sense of normality for the twins but I felt a little annoyed when I saw these pictures yesterday. I'm sure their worlds are falling apart but I wouldn't put on a brave face for anyone if my little one was missing having said that, I have no other children to be strong for and if anything happened to Ella my life would be over in effect anyway.

There's been no news for days now

Edited 21 May 2007 by Katy

[Babylon]

Anyone else feel slightly uneasy with the 'happy family unit' pictures the McCanns have realised? It's like the focus is being turned away from Madeleine and onto the parents.

I don't like it. I know they have to have a sense of normality for the twins but I felt a little annoyed when I saw these pictures yesterday. I'm sure their worlds are falling apart but I wouldn't put on a brave face for anyone if my little one was missing having said that, I have no other children to be strong for and if anything happened to Ella my life would be over in effect anyway.

There's been no news for days now

I'd imagine they got offered money to do it, I mean for the fund and not them personally. I can't imagine any other reason why they would do it.

[Jon the Hat]

Since Madeleine McCann disappeared on May 3rd another 450 young people have gone missing in Britain. While many are teenagers, none has received anything like the attention given to the McCann case, while sports stars and showbiz celebs have not felt the need to get involved with any of them.

Where any of them 3 year olds abducted from their beds? Or abducted at all? No, they where probably kids running away from home, which while not a good thing, is clearly completely different.

[Katy]

I'd imagine they got offered money to do it, I mean for the fund and not them personally. I can't imagine any other reason why they would do it.

Apparently it was to show they are 'coping'. Good news for the abductor then eh

[James.]

Where any of them 3 year olds abducted from their beds? Or abducted at all? No, they where probably kids running away from home, which while not a good thing, is clearly completely different.

That's quite an assumption to make isn't it? That all 450 kids were just running away from home.

Even if only one was abducted it demonstrates the disproportionate and fanatical media coverage of this individual case. Kids go missing all the time.

Face it, this particular story sells newspapers - Madelaine's family should be damn grateful for that. Compared to other parent's nightmares they are getting immeasurably more support and help. I don't begrudge them obviously but to me this reveals the best and very worst of the media.

[Mack]

The McCanns are now part of a huge media machine.

They have some serious media heavyweights advising them, and the goal is to keep the story in the public eye and on the news agenda for as long as possible.

I would imagine the father's 48 hour dash to the UK also is partly to do with keeping the story newsworthy.

[Jon the Hat]

That's quite an assumption to make isn't it? That all 450 kids were just running away from home.

Even if only one was abducted it demonstrates the disproportionate and fanatical media coverage of this individual case. Kids go missing all the time.

Face it, this particular story sells newspapers - Madelaine's family should be damn grateful for that. Compared to other parent's nightmares they are getting immeasurably more support and help. I don't begrudge them obviously but to me this reveals the best and very worst of the media.

Of course this story sells newspapers, it is a beautiful 3 year old girl from a good family taken from her bed in a nice resort in a nice village while her parents ate 50 metres away.

I'm sure they are very grateful, however they are also managing it very well, a reflection of a) the fact that they are intelligent pofessional people b) the support they are getting from Mark Warner who appointed a PR man immediately, and c) The coverage of the question as to whether they were right to leave her in a room alone.

If you can find one strory about any child under 16 being abducted since Madeline I would be surprised. More likely you are taking stats bandied around by those who for their own agenda are trying to jump on this particular media bandwagon.

Every three seconds someone dies of starvation. The tragedy is that this doesn't get coverage, but your average person just wants to get on with their life, and reading about or seeing tragedy every day just makes it harder.

[Raj]

I Hope to god that the McCanns find the little girl,it must be a living nightmare. BUT just wondering now thats its been 2 weeks down the line and it is still in the papers,news radio etc...would this be happening if it was a little black/asian kid abducted from Tower Hamlets/Manchester etc...???

No..i didn't think so!

Just find the 2.5 million pounds reward a little sick too really.

Hope to god they find her though...and all the other kids missing around the world(if there are ANY others missing anywhere!)

Edited 21 May 2007 by EVINGTON_BLUE

[Katy]

The McCanns are now part of a huge media machine.

They have some serious media heavyweights advising them, and the goal is to keep the story in the public eye and on the news agenda for as long as possible.

I would imagine the father's 48 hour dash to the UK also is partly to do with keeping the story newsworthy.

Without a doubt.

[Dr The Singh]

Of course this story sells newspapers, it is a beautiful 3 year old girl from a good family taken from her bed in a nice resort in a nice village while her parents ate 50 metres away.

I'm sure they are very grateful, however they are also managing it very well, a reflection of a) the fact that they are intelligent pofessional people b) the support they are getting from Mark Warner who appointed a PR man immediately, and c) The coverage of the question as to whether they were right to leave her in a room alone.

If you can find one strory about any child under 16 being abducted since Madeline I would be surprised. More likely you are taking stats bandied around by those who for their own agenda are trying to jump on this particular media bandwagon.

Every three seconds someone dies of starvation. The tragedy is that this doesn't get coverage, but your average person just wants to get on with their life, and reading about or seeing tragedy every day just makes it harder.

From the families perspective, they want to keep the search etc in the media aslong as possible, and keep everyone alert to the idea that the girl is missing, and keep people vigilant and aware of this!!!

The longer it goes, the more shorter the articles and soon they will be a few lines hidden among the new big story!!

[Leicfox]

If Madeleine is still alive, it's quite possible she may have been smuggled to Africa.

There have been reports of sightings in Morocco. These could and should have been followed up, even if nothing came of them.

You really shouldn't post while drunk.

Seriously.

I think he makes a good point, No?

If it were a snatch to order (which is of course a big if) then my limited understanding of criminal contracting is that you don't do anything more or anything less than what you're contracted for. You won't get paid any differently, and the contractor will not be very pleased if you turned up with a larger cargo, as all you will have done is increase the risk to them of getting caught by increasing your own potential for exposure by taking on a bigger burden. Logistically any snatch merchant will probably have been geared up to transport one individual, as quickly as possible, without drawing attention to themselves, and minimising the amount of contact they will have come into with any potential witnesses. That being so it still points to the sea rather than an over land to me.

It's most unlikely that some speculative gang was operating, without a buyer already being in place. All the kidnapper would be doing is taking an additional risk by trying to get away by road or train transport , (noise, descriptions, food, passports, illness etc) with no immediate reward, and quite possibly a punishment for breaking the terms of the contract, assuming the person behind it is rich, powerful and influential etc

Im guessing thats why the other two children were not taken and why sea seems better than road or train?

My own hunch is that the girl is still alive. Finding her however, could prove a problem which we all know it is, after searching the immediate area, I'd have been looking at harbour movements within 24 hours after the abduction, as the geopgraphy of the snatch location offers a clue to my limited mind, as it defies logic regarding one line of escape (over land) yet sits perfectly with another (the sea). It's the principal reason why Morocco points to a realistic point of transit, a moderately fast boat, could have the child on another continent within an hour, with nothing like the relationships and understandings that exist between countries. It's not as if there aren't enough secluded inlets on the Morrocan coast.

Edited 21 May 2007 by Leicfox

[Daggers]

I think he makes a good point, No?

IMHO? No.

[Jon the Hat]

IMHO? No.

To be honest I have no comprehension of what could go through the mind of someone who would abduct a 3 year old, so who am I to write anything off as a possibility.

[Jon the Hat]

Anyone else feel slightly uneasy with the 'happy family unit' pictures the McCanns have realised? It's like the focus is being turned away from Madeleine and onto the parents.

I don't like it. I know they have to have a sense of normality for the twins but I felt a little annoyed when I saw these pictures yesterday. I'm sure their worlds are falling apart but I wouldn't put on a brave face for anyone if my little one was missing having said that, I have no other children to be strong for and if anything happened to Ella my life would be over in effect anyway.

There's been no news for days now

I know what you mean, it seems wrong somehow to laugh given the circumstances. I think you have to accept that they are making themselves believe it is just a matter of time before she is home, in order to be able to carry on. If you accept that then it is a little more understandable. People react in different ways I guess, I can't criticise them as who knows how I would react.

[Daggers]

Balance of probability:

She was not abducted by a parent...therefore it is a reasonable assumption that she was taken by a stranger as there has been no reported grooming activity, no revenge motive announced, no ransom note produced.

It is estimated that over two thirds of such abductions are sexually motivated; with the key target groups being 'white' and 'female' (the latter accounting for 60% of abductions).

So, if one applies Occam's Razor it is reasonable to state that the crime was conducted by a paedophile.

With the rate of 'kidnapping to order' being imperceptibly low it is reasonable to discount it (I can not find reference to it in any official statistics).

Stories of sightings still occur for Elvis, Lord Lucan and Red Rum...people are both unreliable and strange at times. Detection rates for such crimes run at 13% in the UK - based on such a poor return it is ridiculous to suggest that a global investigation should take place. The cost rules it out absolutely.

The parents biggest hope remains in that the abductor will release the girl afterwards if he feels safe to do so - if he kills the girl then, judging by the absence of any lead at present, the crime will never be solved.

[Katy]

Just been on Sky News that an 11 year old girl has been missing from home since Sunday, Cambridgeshire Police are giving a news conference at some point it says. I wonder how much coverage this will get and, how quickly will this be solved.

I guess with Britain being an Island and the Police working in different ways to the Portuguese, it would be more difficult to get a 'kidnapped' child out of the Country and it's quite a tiny area of land in respect to other countries with borders etc.

[Hullfox]

Apprently it's common knowledge amongst Poruguese police circles.

The appartment is totally devoid of any intruder fingerprints, footprints, DNA, the appartment is totally clean.

Police dogs followed her scent down to a local supermarket and there the trail goes cold.

Apparently the McCanns were using a creche for the kids that was down that way and it was the most familiar route to Madeleine in Luz, so they think it's the way she would have gone to try and find her parents.

The British ex-police who were over there right after the abduction said that the Portuguese police believed the probable fact she left the appartment of her own accord and wandered down to the shops means the abduction is almost certainly an unplanned crime and was more than likely commited by a local.

I see there are rumors now starting to circle about contradictory evidence that puts the suspect and that Russian guy not only on the phone to each other shortly after the abduction, but also in Murats case wandering around Luz.

Obviously sue to the Potuguese legal process there is a lot we dont know about the case, so it's quite possible those two know more than they are letting on.

The bottom line is finding Madeleine, lets hope that happens soon.

Bearing in mind the amount of conjecture within that post, how much is really relevant?

[Trumpet]

Where any of them 3 year olds abducted from their beds? Or abducted at all? No, they where probably kids running away from home, which while not a good thing, is clearly completely different.

I'd agree, if the 3 year olds where abducted from their beds with parents in the house

[Jon the Hat]

I'd agree, if the 3 year olds where abducted from their beds with parents in the house

Agree with what? If you are bored of the subject then I suggest you don't read it.

[Head Honcho]

Just been on Sky News that an 11 year old girl has been missing from home since Sunday, Cambridgeshire Police are giving a news conference at some point it says. I wonder how much coverage this will get and, how quickly will this be solved.

I guess with Britain being an Island and the Police working in different ways to the Portuguese, it would be more difficult to get a 'kidnapped' child out of the Country and it's quite a tiny area of land in respect to other countries with borders etc.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2084844,00.html

Don't know about the East Midlands area but nothing on the news in South Wales.