The Good News thread, local jobs, economy etc

[Webbo]

Partly agree and glad to discuss another time when less busy (business is booming, don't you know! But shouldn't it be in a thread other than the "Good news" thread?!? You should refer this matter to a forum moderator!  

 

 

 

No point, the mods on here are rubbish. 

[hackneyfox]

I don't know you'll have to look that up but it definitely didn't improve under Labour.

If you aren't aware of how the tories destroyed manufacturing in this country during their years in power then you shouldn't be making claims about the drop under Labour, it just continued its downward spiral.

[Webbo]

If you aren't aware of how the tories destroyed manufacturing in this country during their years in power then you shouldn't be making claims about the drop under Labour, it just continued its downward spiral.

Destroyed? What efficient, profit making business did the Tories destroy?

[MooseBreath]

I'm surprised to see growth at all, I must admit, as my impression was that most consumers, businesses and public sector bodies were skint.

However, with growth, it's always worth asking: who is spending and what are they buying?

Obviously, it's not the domestic public sector or export markets that are buying, given austerity and depressed trade.

The stats also seem to suggest that the spending is not investment by businesses, but spending by consumers - particularly on distribution (inc. shopping), hotels and catering: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-302051

Of course, that could be a good thing, if the consumer spending is sustainable. It could encourage businesses to invest and kick-start a virtuous circle of sustainable growth....but is it sustainable? Where are consumers suddenly getting the extra money from, at a time when real incomes are still falling? Some of it will be increased confidence, no doubt, but confidence doesn't pay the bills in the long-term....and maybe much of it is borrowing again (credit cards etc.)? Add in a housing bubble stimulated by the "Help to Buy" policy....then add in interest rates heading upwards again if there is a short-term recovery, and that's a volatile mix, potentially.

Anyone for a return to the late 80s/early 90s? Lawson boom followed by Black Wednesday crash?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawson_Boom http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

Larry Elliott (a serious commentator, even if he is with the Grauniad) foresees a similar potential scenario: http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2013/oct/03/uk-economic-boom-could-be-boomlet

Mind you, the Tories still won the 1992 general election, despite the recession (but before Black Wednesday). If overheating does happen, the timescale could be crucial politically....will the government go into the election before or after the bubble pops?

Consumer spending is just a symptom. You're looking at industries like construction, manufacturing and financial services as your engines of growth. Both construction and manufacturing have started to get back to growth which drives money through the associated services and into the hands of consumers. Construction has grown partly because of government incentives, and will grow a hell of a lot more when we finally start on big infrastructure. Manufacturing will probably just potter around doing nothing special. Financial services should be getting back on track. In general it paints a rosy picture for GDP growth for the next couple of years.

I could really do with a wobble in the FTSE though. Been holding back from investing a little bit while it has been up in the 6's. I'd say we're about due a stock market scare soon enough, but I think the fundamentals of our economy will remain on track.

[Alf Bentley]

Consumer spending is just a symptom. You're looking at industries like construction, manufacturing and financial services as your engines of growth. Both construction and manufacturing have started to get back to growth which drives money through the associated services and into the hands of consumers. Construction has grown partly because of government incentives, and will grow a hell of a lot more when we finally start on big infrastructure. Manufacturing will probably just potter around doing nothing special. Financial services should be getting back on track. In general it paints a rosy picture for GDP growth for the next couple of years.

I could really do with a wobble in the FTSE though. Been holding back from investing a little bit while it has been up in the 6's. I'd say we're about due a stock market scare soon enough, but I think the fundamentals of our economy will remain on track.

 

Too complex to discuss properly now (got to work). At some point, there needs to be either sustained consumer demand (here or abroad) or the expectation that it is around the corner, otherwise why would manufacturers and builders invest in new product, generating the subcontract and support services that you describe?

 

Certainly, there seems to be a slight upturn in manufacturing and construction, but small so far - and our economy is now heavily dependent on services (nearly 80% of GDP, isn't it?). I assume that the financial sector will be cautious for a while yet, after the crash - and aren't they generally rebuilding their balance sheets rather than earning money by lending etc? 

 

If the main factor in growth is currently consumer demand for personal services (seems to be the case), I wonder how sustainable that is when real incomes are falling and will probably take some time to rise, and consumer debts are high?

 

Sustained growth in manufacturing/construction requires demand, so who'll have the cash to buy the products long-term? Not the public sector; unlikely to be European or American export markets, unless their economies improve markedly...so that takes you back to domestic consumer demand, ultimately, doesn't it? So, where will their cash come from?

 

Really must work now....hopefully will be less busy next week and will have more FT time available... I do find this very interesting. I hope the economy is starting to recover in the way you suggest, but I'm dubious... 

[Webbo]

Many people in Britain think the quality of public services overall have been maintained or improved in the past five years despite government cuts, a poll for the BBC suggests.

More of the 1,031 people surveyed feel bin collections, parks and libraries, schools and bus services have improved than those who think they are worse.

 

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24454006

[Guest MattP]

Interesting stuff.

 

Refuse collection and Street Lighting Iv'e noticed to be far better.

 

Local parks here definitely look cleaner and fresher as well (though that might be as my recent thoughts are summer).

 

 

Sort the roads and the old bill out and people seem happy.

[Zingari]

How on earth 48% of those surveyed  can think "waste collection" is better now than 5 years ago is completely beyond me 

 

In our area they used to empty the bins every week and now it's every 2 weeks , I'm  pretty sure if they did the survey here only the resident lunatics would say it was better, 

 

edit;

i'm a silly old booger

 

i've looked again and realise it's referring to recycling collection and that  probably seems  better , but i've heard all this sorting out lark is just a waste of out time as it all gets shipped off to somewhere in Asia to be dumped. I still can't see how even 29% think waste collection is  better.

Edited 9 October 2013 by Zingari

[Smudge]

Having well maintained roads is paramount to the well being of the country.

 

Maintenance and construction of new roads has always been the red haired step child of government spending, that's because they can turn it on and off like a tap.

 

The construction materials business is very high capital cost. Not just for the reserves of the aggregates but the machinery that mines, processes and delivers the products. A reliable revenue stream ensures the viability of the businesses and the continued employment of highly skilled employees. That's the front end, the construction trades that prepare the roads and lay the asphalt also have a very difficult time keeping a steady work force not knowing the future.

 

This strategy, I believe, encourages amalgamation of businesses creating huge conglomerates who offset the economic challenges by increasing prices and hence reducing the amount of maintenance done even further.

[Rincewind]

They still leave bins in front of gates. They are on a time scake, the quicker they do their round the quicker they can go home. Eight hours work in five then 3 hours breal parked up in some side street.

[Zingari]

Having well maintained roads is paramount to the well being of the country.

 

Maintenance and construction of new roads has always been the red haired step child of government spending, that's because they can turn it on and off like a tap.

 

The construction materials business is very high capital cost. Not just for the reserves of the aggregates but the machinery that mines, processes and delivers the products. A reliable revenue stream ensures the viability of the businesses and the continued employment of highly skilled employees. That's the front end, the construction trades that prepare the roads and lay the asphalt also have a very difficult time keeping a steady work force not knowing the future.

 

This strategy, I believe, encourages amalgamation of businesses creating huge conglomerates who offset the economic challenges by increasing prices and hence reducing the amount of maintenance done even further.

You're quite right Smudge, but this is the area that most people in the survey say the gov is failing most badly at improving and maintaining roads . 

 

edit;

 They should improve the roads and build new houses with the huge amount of dosh put aside for HS2 

Edited 9 October 2013 by Zingari

[Rincewind]

WHAT! The Tories failing at something? Wash your mouth out Zingari?

[Smudge]

You're quite right Smudge, but this is the area that most people in the survey say the gov is failing most badly at improving and maintaining roads . 

I know mate that's why I made the comment

 

The biggest problem is the increase in traffic, especially trucks. It's better to avoid the ailment rather than treat the problem

[Harry - LCFC]

BBC notes later in the article that "the survey indicates that people who use a particular service are more likely to say it has got better than the general population." Which is stronger evidence to suggest services have improved, the people who use them are naturally going to have a more informed view.

 

Quite surprised by it really. This isn't what I'd expect to find after the cuts we've had, can imagine this will get used to further reduce government spending.

[Zingari]

I know mate that's why I made the comment

 

The biggest problem is the increase in traffic, especially trucks. It's better to avoid the ailment rather than treat the problem

 I just wanted to be clear in my mind that you were aware that you were criticising the present government on this issue  in a roundabout (no pun intended) way    

[Guest MattP]

WHAT! The Tories failing at something? Wash your mouth out Zingari?

 

Another just incredible kentribution.

 

If I put up the £500 would you stand in the 2015 GE?

Edited 9 October 2013 by MattP

[Zingari]

WHAT! The Tories failing at something? Wash your mouth out Zingari?

i am , but the problem of poorly maintained roads goes back a lot longer if i'm being honest 

[davieG]

Most of those services are provided by local or district councils that have varying political colours/influences and are also likely to vary again geographically depending on their economic state.

 

I don't see how asking just over 1000 people gives any sort of real picture of the overall satisfaction levels.

[Smudge]

 I just wanted to be clear in my mind that you were aware that you were criticising the present government on this issue  in a roundabout (no pun intended) way    

Was this you?

[Zingari]

Almost .

[Jon the Hat]

Most of those services are provided by local or district councils that have varying political colours/influences and are also likely to vary again geographically depending on their economic state.

I don't see how asking just over 1000 people gives any sort of real picture of the overall satisfaction levels.

Councils who have had their funding cut , most of whom screamed about all the frontline services they would have to cut.

[davieG]

Councils who have had their funding cut , most of whom screamed about all the frontline services they would have to cut.

Perhaps more reason to question the numbers

 

 I just find all these polls not just the political ones but all those medical ones that tell us something is good/bad for us a poor representation when the numbers are this small

[Alf Bentley]

Perhaps more reason to question the numbers

 

 I just find all these polls not just the political ones but all those medical ones that tell us something is good/bad for us a poor representation when the numbers are this small

 

It would be interesting to know the sampling method, as well as the size. I haven't seen anywhere who they interviewed.

 

In all honesty, I've not noticed any change in council services (hospitals have definitely gone downhill), but I don't use many of them. The bins are still collected, still books in the library etc.

 

But I know that there have been massive cuts in county council adult social services - how many users of adult social services did they interview? Such people would be among the hardest to contact (elderly, housebound, mental illnesses etc.)

Edited 10 October 2013 by Sir Alf Bentley

[Jon the Hat]

But I know that there have been massive cuts in county council adult social services - how many users of adult social services did they interview? Such people would be among the hardest to contact (elderly, housebound, mental illnesses etc.)

 

How do you know that?  What evidence is there of these cuts?  Are councils failing in there duty of care?  If so they should be utterly ashamed of themselves, as frankly these along with children services should be the last thing to be cut. 

Edited 10 October 2013 by Jon the Hat

[Alf Bentley]

But I know that there have been massive cuts in county council adult social services - how many users of adult social services did they interview? Such people would be among the hardest to contact (elderly, housebound, mental illnesses etc.)

 

How do you know that?  What evidence is there of these cuts?  Are councils failing in there duty of care?  If so they should be utterly ashamed of themselves, as frankly these along with children services should be the last thing to be cut. 

 

How I know that is that my wife works at their offices (Leicestershire social services) and tells me about it. Further evidence is that her niece was doing home visits to the elderly and housebound until recently and wasn't given enough time to carry out visits properly (15-20 minutes per visit, I think, including travel time - in rural areas around Hinckley/Bosworth).

 

If you want documentary evidence, you'll have to write to Leicestershire County Council yourself, as I've got work to do.

Don't know who you should contact. You could have tried the (Tory) council leader, David Parsons, until recently but he has quit and may be busy fighting legal action for misuse of the council's chauffeured limousine:

 http://www.thisisleicestershire.co.uk/Parsons-receives-final-demand/story-19808868-detail/story.html#axzz2hIbO8Ajd

 

Would still be interested to hear about the sampling method used for the survey (phone? door-to-door? weighted by age, locality, income/employment status - or data corrected for those factors? able to substitute "easy to contact" for "hard to contact"?).

Doesn't seem to mention sampling method in the media reports that I've seen.