norfolkfox222 Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Here is a list of average lowest and highest points needed for the top 6 positions in championship history; 106....Highest Champions Points Total (52 points at an average 2.47 per game).92...Highest 2nd Place Points Total (i.e. not champions) (38 at 1.80).88...Average Needed For Champions (34 at 1.61)87...Highest 3rd Place Points Total (i.e. not auto promoted) (33 at 1.57).82...Average Needed For Promotion (28 points at 1.33)81....Lowest Champions Points Total (27 points at 1.28)8079....Lowest Automatic Promotion Total (25 points at 1.19).75...Highest 7th Place Points Total (i.e. not making play-offs) (21 points at 1.00) with 21 games left in the brackets are how many points we need and an average to achieve that. with 3 team in the hunt for 2 auto places I think we are going to need more than the average, but the reality is we are just 10-12 wins from 21 games away from being back in the top flight.
Foxymcoxy Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Be chuffed with 92 and there's no reason we shouldn't aim even higher. 1.8 points per game is definitely achievable but it does make you realise there's a long way to go. Who got that 106 points? Bloody brilliant season that.
Happy Fox Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 54 points from 25 games equates too 2.16 points per game continue that form then we would finish with 99 points which would mean in all likelihood that we have won the title. Our next step after after guaranteed of the playoffs, is automatic promotion which is about another 10 wins away.
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Well I am glad I am not the only one that feels it's time to take a look at what can be achieved and what would it take to achieve it. Nice set of figures
Captain... Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Last season. 1 Cardiff City 25 17 2 6 47 29 12 0 1 25 8 5 2 5 22 21 +18 53 2 Hull City 25 15 3 7 37 27 8 2 3 20 11 7 1 4 17 16 +10 48 3 Middlesbrough 25 15 2 8 45 33 10 1 2 28 14 5 1 6 17 19 +12 47 4 Crystal Palace 25 12 8 5 47 33 7 4 1 30 15 5 4 4 17 18 +14 44 5 Leicester City 25 12 5 8 38 22 8 2 2 26 10 4 3 6 12 12 +16 41 6 Watford 24 12 4 8 44 32 6 2 4 17 11 6 2 4 27 21 +12 40 1 Cardiff City 46 25 12 9 72 45 15 6 2 37 15 10 6 7 35 30 +27 87 2 Hull City 46 24 7 15 61 52 13 4 6 35 22 11 3 9 26 30 +9 79 3 Watford 46 23 8 15 85 58 11 5 7 41 27 12 3 8 44 31 +27 77 4 Brighton and Hove A 46 19 18 9 69 43 11 9 3 39 17 8 9 6 30 26 +26 75 5 Crystal Palace 46 19 15 12 73 62 13 8 2 52 31 6 7 10 21 31 +11 72 6 Leicester City 46 19 11 16 71 48 13 4 6 46 23 6 7 10 25 25 +23 68 Cardiff: 34 points from their last 21 games Hull: 31 from 21 Boro: 12 from 21 Palace: 28 from 21 Us: 27 from 21 Watford: 37 from 22 All of the top 6 had much worse form in the second half of the season, and it was only because nobody else managed to put a decent run together that the status quo was more or less maintained. As good as it looks now, we can still fvck it up,
Happy Fox Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Looking back at last season and looking at the stats which I didn't pay much attention too at the time, we were a playoff team so why I got pissed off with NP emotions got the better off me, for that period of a loss of form we never showed that we were automatic promotion contenders not by a long stretch.
Bert Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 30 more points will do it this season I think. That's 10 wins. We can do it of course, but let's just take things game by game.
lgfualol Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 If we can take 5 points from each game, we should be okay
The Doctor Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Be chuffed with 92 and there's no reason we shouldn't aim even higher. 1.8 points per game is definitely achievable but it does make you realise there's a long way to go. Who got that 106 points? Bloody brilliant season that. Reading in 05/06...
Nick Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 I said 88 points at the start of the season. Sticking with that whether we go up as champions or not.
Fox92 Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Another 10 wins for me. Take's us around 80 points.
LCCFox96 Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Think a realistic aim is to aim for somewhere between 84-88 points. That should get the job done. The longer we can keep this winning run going on for too will really help us out. If we can put another 4 wins together in the upcoming fixtures it really is on this year. If we can clear 65 by early-mid rFebruary we should still be leaders and can really drive for the finish then. One game at a time is an important ethos though and hopefully we keep playing as we are.
Captain... Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 All those saying 10 wins, look at those stats I posted, only Watford achieved that last season winning 11 of their last 21 games.
Happy Fox Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 All those saying 10 wins, look at those stats I posted, only Watford achieved that last season winning 11 of their last 21 games. but they had 40 points though?
Captain... Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 but they had 40 points though? But 10 wins is not an easy task, is my point.
Happy Fox Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 But 10 wins is not an easy task, is my point. Alright just focusing on the top two it seems from your data, that 10 wins should be enough from our position.
Banks Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 This is getting me excited but we have to keep grounded. NP will be playing it down, he knows we are doing brilliantly but we can't do what we did last season. Perform like we have all season and we will be playing Premier League football next season
XLM Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Looking at the way this season's panning out, it will be between us, Burnley and QPR for the 2 automatic spots. It will be very close between 3rd and seconds, but we have a number of lowly teams like Wednesday, Yeovil and Doncaster, Millwall etc to play at home so around 12 wins from the last 21 games is by no means unrealistic. Take into account that if we keep up the way we're playing we could easily hit the 90 point mark this year
klrice Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 I feel we should stay focus on each game as they come,there are still three clubs within in catching distance of the foxes.It will just take a few wins to make things very interesting.
Happy Fox Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 But 10 wins is not an easy task, is my point. I think it is very realistic okay we aren't going to win all our remaining home games (10 left now) but I can forsee us winning about 7 of them at the very minimum and a couple away from home should see us do it at the very minimum I think 10 wins is very realistic for us imo.
Bert Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 All those saying 10 wins, look at those stats I posted, only Watford achieved that last season winning 11 of their last 21 games.Does that mean it can't or won't happen this season then?
LCCFox96 Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 All those saying 10 wins, look at those stats I posted, only Watford achieved that last season winning 11 of their last 21 games.I agree that it is by no means an easy feat to achieve promotion by simply stating we need to win 10 games but would you not agree that of the teams shown in your table we are the only side with a significantly stronger squad than last season? Obviously taking the promotion sides out Brighton have struggled with a small squad and injuries whilst departures of key players like Bridcutt and Barnes appear to have happened or be in the works. Watford have just fallen away badly and Middlesbrough are already a long way behind. Our squad however is stronger, has added experience (wasyl,Hammond, GTF and maybe KP) and is more gelled.Whilst we obviously have newer challengers, with QPR looking a real force, burnley being a surprise package, derby coming in under McClaren and teams like forest and reading lurking just outside the play offs, I don't think we can possibly fall away as badly as last year as I think we would have seen signs if this already, like silly dropped point, but we haven't as we have been efficient enough and closed games out well. I do think if we fall back into the pack, which imo is in a larger number of teams this year we will struggle to get back into automatics. But I am very confident of plays off at a minimum and confidence grows match by match for going all the way now. One things for certain is we have an exciting second half of the season to look forward to.
Captain... Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Does that mean it can't or won't happen this season then? All it means is that from this point last season only one of the top six won 10 games, and none of the promoted teams managed to win 10 games. Winning 10 games when all clubs are battling for promotion or survival is not going to be easy.
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Rather than one game at a time I feel it's best to group the games and time periods, then no one gets to excited if we lose a game, take the next three games, all lossable, all winnable, two wins or no defeats would be quite acceptable. Four points minimum.
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