Captain... Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 I agree that it is by no means an easy feat to achieve promotion by simply stating we need to win 10 games but would you not agree that of the teams shown in your table we are the only side with a significantly stronger squad than last season? Obviously taking the promotion sides out Brighton have struggled with a small squad and injuries whilst departures of key players like Bridcutt and Barnes appear to have happened or be in the works. Watford have just fallen away badly and Middlesbrough are already a long way behind. Our squad however is stronger, has added experience (wasyl,Hammond, GTF and maybe KP) and is more gelled. Whilst we obviously have newer challengers, with QPR looking a real force, burnley being a surprise package, derby coming in under McClaren and teams like forest and reading lurking just outside the play offs, I don't think we can possibly fall away as badly as last year as I think we would have seen signs if this already, like silly dropped point, but we haven't as we have been efficient enough and closed games out well. I do think if we fall back into the pack, which imo is in a larger number of teams this year we will struggle to get back into automatics. But I am very confident of plays off at a minimum and confidence grows match by match for going all the way now. One things for certain is we have an exciting second half of the season to look forward to. Did you think we could last year? Just being a realist, we've all been following the championship to know anything can happen bewteen now and the end of the season. I, for one, am not counting any chickens.
foxfanazer Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 I can see 85 points being enough so 10 or 11 wins. Although they are doing very well I can see Burnley dropping off a bit and I don't see anyone occupying a playoff spot than I'm too worried about. Keeping my eye on Wigan recently though, seem to be on the up
Bluetintedspecs Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 All it means is that from this point last season only one of the top six won 10 games, and none of the promoted teams managed to win 10 games. Winning 10 games when all clubs are battling for promotion or survival is not going to be easy. Someone once said "Only weak people feel pressure" Agree it's far from easy Captain, however, we appear to be a different animal this season! COYB
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Did you think we could last year? Just being a realist, we've all been following the championship to know anything can happen bewteen now and the end of the season. I, for one, am not counting any chickens. I don't think anyone is counting their chickens just taking stock and looking at what we have to achieve, and what it has taken over the past few seasons. A 50% win ratio should not be to hard, or not losing to certain teams
LCCFox96 Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Did you think we could last year? Just being a realist, we've all been following the championship to know anything can happen bewteen now and the end of the season. I, for one, am not counting any chickens. Fair enough. I'm not disagreeing with you at all - in fact I probably agree. I thought after the loss to Cardiff at home mid-December that something didn't quite click for all the fantastic football we played. Chris Wood's arrival nulled those feelings slightly for me with him expect to be the missing piece which he was for about 6 games. However by late February I think we could all see what was happening last time around which is why my previous post alluded to clearing 65 points by early February as we can get a good sense of what the rest of the season will be like. In summary 10-11 wins should be enough but it's always going to be a dogfight for every single point we earn. Following the championship whenever leicester have been in this league for 10 years (since I was 7) - love and hate this bastard division.
kylestyle06 Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 The ten games that we should win I have made BOLD.... Obviously anything can happen but these are the ones we should win; Leeds v Leicester Leicester V Middlesbrough Birmingham v Leicester Bournemouth v Leicester Leicester V Watford Forest V Leicester Leicester V Ipswich Leicester V Charlton Wigan v Leicester Barnsley V Leicester Leicester V Blackpool Blackburn V Leicester Leicester V Yeovil Burnley V Leicester Leicester V Sheff Wed Leicester V Brighton Reading V Leicester Leicester V QPR Bolton V Leicester Huddersfield V Leicester Leicester V Doncaster There's 12 which we SHOULD win, taking into consideration we lose the rest.... We are going up
ealingfox Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Think 90+ points will be needed for the top 2 personally, QPR and Burnley have been very good at avoiding defeat thus far. Boro 3rd at this point last season, and very much in the title race! Crazy. Let that be a warning to all of us.
sylofox Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 We can predict all we like. But the only way we are going up for definite is to pick up more points than the chasing pack 10 wins won't be enough if burnley and qpr win 15. Just keep winning lads.
ithuriel Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Said after the Derby game ten wins should do it, sounds easy but is not so the team will have to put blinkers on and go out to win every game like it is a cup final. Think we have 17 from 25 thus far.
Bayfox Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Looking at the way this season's panning out, it will be between us, Burnley and QPR for the 2 automatic spots. It will be very close between 3rd and seconds, but we have a number of lowly teams like Wednesday, Yeovil and Doncaster, Millwall etc to play at home so around 12 wins from the last 21 games is by no means unrealistic. Take into account that if we keep up the way we're playing we could easily hit the 90 point mark this year much tho I like the idea of taking 3 more points off millwall I dont think we are allowed to play them 3 times.
DanTheMan Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 If you're all interested in stats, both current and historical, maybe you should check out this iPhone app that I definitely have absolutely no stake in!*** TeamTracker ***Shamless Plug - May in fact be complete b****cks! P.S. In all seriousness, it's got the stats people have been after in this thread (predictions based on best case, worst case and averages for the last 10 seasons for autos, playoffs, safety etc)... as well as a job lot of other stats! If you're interested, and fancy a freebie - PM me! The first 10 to do so will get a code for the App Store for a free download
Freeman's Wharfer Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 For the first time this season, on Friday night I started to look at points totals and fixtures etc. And on Friday I thought that 10 more wins should see us promoted given that we can probably pick up a couple of draws somewhere along the road as well. To win the league we'd probably need two or three more wins on top of that but, as nice as it would be, I don't think any of us care about going up as champions as long as we just go up! Our home form is the real positive for me as a lot of those remaining fixtures are home ties against teams in the bottom half of the table (so we should be winning those kind of games if we want to go up). Given that Pearson usually sets us up fairly well away from home as well, we should be able to pick up a couple of wins there but our away fixtures do look fairly tough. I think January/February is the key for us therefore as we've got Leeds, Birmingham and Bournemouth, all of whom are beatable. If we could win two out of those three whilst maintaining good home form then I'd be very confident that we can do it. I can see 85 points being enough so 10 or 11 wins. Although they are doing very well I can see Burnley dropping off a bit and I don't see anyone occupying a playoff spot than I'm too worried about. Keeping my eye on Wigan recently though, seem to be on the up I think, thankfully, we're going to be just a bit too far out of Wigan's reach. I agree that they're probably going to be the ones who come on strongest over the second half of the season but it will benefit us to have someone out of reach of us taking points off those in and around us.
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 I think January/February is the key for us therefore as we've got Leeds, Birmingham and Bournemouth, all of whom are beatable. If we could win two out of those three whilst maintaining good home form then I'd be very confident that we can do it. s. Tend to agree with this
Leicesterpool Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 The ten games that we should win I have made BOLD.... Obviously anything can happen but these are the ones we should win; Leeds v Leicester Leicester V Middlesbrough Birmingham v Leicester Bournemouth v Leicester Leicester V Watford Forest V Leicester Leicester V Ipswich Leicester V Charlton Wigan v Leicester Barnsley V Leicester Leicester V Blackpool Blackburn V Leicester Leicester V Yeovil Burnley V Leicester Leicester V Sheff Wed Leicester V Brighton Reading V Leicester Leicester V QPR Bolton V Leicester Huddersfield V Leicester Leicester V Doncaster There's 12 which we SHOULD win, taking into consideration we lose the rest.... We are going up Leeds v Leicester 1-1 DRAW Leicester V Middlesbrough 2-2 DRAW Birmingham v Leicester 0-2 LOSS Bournemouth v Leicester 1-0 WIN Leicester V Watford 2-2 DRAW Forest V Leicester 1-1 DRAW Leicester V Ipswich 2-0 WIN Leicester V Charlton 3-1 WIN Wigan v Leicester 1-2 LOSS Barnsley V Leicester 3-0 WIN Leicester V Blackpool 2-0 WIN Blackburn V Leicester 1-1 DRAW Leicester V Yeovil 2-0 WIN Burnley V Leicester 1-0 WIN Leicester V Sheff Wed 2-1 WIN Leicester V Brighton 3-0 WIN Reading V Leicester 1-1 DRAW Leicester V QPR 0-1 LOSS Bolton V Leicester 0-3 LOSS Huddersfield V Leicester 1-1 DRAW Leicester V Doncaster 4-2 WIN 37 points to come i think, taking us 91.
foxfanazer Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 You think we are going to win 1 of the next 6 games?
Foxes Blue Blood Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 The ten games that we should win I have made BOLD.... Obviously anything can happen but these are the ones we should win; Leeds v Leicester Leicester V Middlesbrough Birmingham v Leicester Bournemouth v Leicester Leicester V Watford Forest V Leicester Leicester V Ipswich Leicester V Charlton Wigan v Leicester Barnsley V Leicester Leicester V Blackpool Blackburn V Leicester Leicester V Yeovil Burnley V Leicester Leicester V Sheff Wed Leicester V Brighton Reading V Leicester Leicester V QPR Bolton V Leicester Huddersfield V Leicester Leicester V Doncaster There's 12 which we SHOULD win, taking into consideration we lose the rest.... We are going up To help ourselves the 5 matches we don't want to lose are :- Forest, Wigan, Burnley, Reading & QPR even a point from these matches would slow down their challenge.
MooseBreath Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Even if we capitulate like we did last year and pick up 27pts from the remaining 21 games, we still finish on 81 points, which would have been enough for 2nd place last year, and only one point short of the average required for 2nd historically. It does look like the points required will be on the high side this year. But I think if we can just keep our heads and keep picking up points we'll be ok.
harpendenfox Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 I'm not volunteering to do the math, but i wonder if the top teams statistically struggle to replicate their first half of the season form in the second half, as they come up against teams scrapping for their lives. That said, I suppose, there must be some teams we'll play with little to play for come early April. I'll carry on arguing with myself on this one....
harpendenfox Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 QPR play Burnley early Feb. I guess we'd like a draw
Guest Col city fan Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Its down to us now. Frankly, only we can fook up and lose this best position the club has been in for over a decade. Exciting stuff.... a little nervy, but exciting.
Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 QPR play Burnley early Feb. I guess we'd like a draw And a hatful of straight red cards, and (non-career threatening) injuries
Captain... Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 I'm not volunteering to do the math, but i wonder if the top teams statistically struggle to replicate their first half of the season form in the second half, as they come up against teams scrapping for their lives. That said, I suppose, there must be some teams we'll play with little to play for come early April. I'll carry on arguing with myself on this one.... The problem with the Championship is that until you get to the last couple of games pretty much every team could either mathematically be relegated or make the play-offs so there is so much more importance and pressure on every game as they could be season defining, whereas early on in the season there isn't that pressure on every game.
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 Its down to us now. Frankly, only we can fook up and lose this best position the club has been in for over a decade. Exciting stuff.... a little nervy, but exciting. Welcome to the party col
Happy Fox Posted 13 January 2014 Posted 13 January 2014 The problem with the Championship is that until you get to the last couple of games pretty much every team could either mathematically be relegated or make the play-offs so there is so much more importance and pressure on every game as they could be season defining, whereas early on in the season there isn't that pressure on every game. Then the challenge for City is to try and achieve promotion before the season last couple of games we are capable of doing that imo.
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