Bagworthblue Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 Ssd I know especially as I'm in my 40s but ive trawled a few stats (yes been done before) to try to ease the pressure so here we go..... in the last 11 years the team at the top after 29 games was promoted finished 1st 8 times. In the 3 where it didnt it finished 3rd (aaagh) The average 2nd place points tally is 86 which gets you up 6 times out of 11 (54%) Of the teams finishing 2nd, the average points after 29 games was 54 If the teams below us all hit promotion form between now and the season end (2 points per game) Qpr 92 Burnley 89 Derby 86 Forest 86 Reading 81 Of those only QPR are achieving 2 points per game. With 17 games left, I looked at points from 17 games on average a bottom team averages 12 points from 17 A mid table team averages 23 points from 17 Performing like the former puts the foxes on 78 points which is never enough for top 2. Performing as the latter nets us 89 points seeing us promoted 8 times out of 11. Unless anyone out performs 2 points per game, only QPR and Burnley can realistically get 89+ this season. In short I have now proved what we all friggin knew in the 1st place and that is that realistically as long as we just do ok from now untill the end of the season and get 1.35 points per game, realistically on QPR and Burnley can beat us to 2nd.. what a waste of time :-)
Captain... Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 This is a team that is capable of defeating the odds and breaking many records, lets hope for once they stay true to form and get promoted comfortably from this position and with games to spare, but it won't be Leicester without some late drama.
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 A nice breakdown and the more you look at it position we are in the more you think it's ours to lose
Dan Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 Considering we're breaking records weekly, I don't fear anyone. This team is capable of winning the league - and in serious style. Although it's worth noting that it was this weekend a year ago we were away at Peterborough...
Happy Fox Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 I just want us to get promotion the sooner we achieve that the better and you get the sense the players want to get it done and then they can have a well deserved break.
ealingfox Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 Beating Watford this weekend would be amazing for the superstitious etc. Double over them, winning on the anniversary of the Filbert Street Crash, and going ahead of last season's points total. That's away from it being our 10th straight win.
pSinatra Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 We are the most feared team in the Championship. Teams might expect a result out of a game against QPR, Derby, Burnley, Forest.......but I don't think they will have the same positive attitude against us. We still need to maintain our form, but if teams are playing us half expecting to lose......great!! We aren't going to win every game. If we lose on Saturday, I will shit the bed the same as everyone else & worry about it being the start of a slump. We've worked ourselves into a fantastic position & can afford an occasional blip.........a blip that the teams around us can't afford. I blame the Derby game for my blind optimism. This is one of the teams we think might be able to catch us? They were shit.
Tom's Pasta Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 Complacency certainly shouldn't be an issue with such a level-headed manager, plus the added determination to finish the job after last season's disappointments. The only thing which would cause a similar run to the end of last season would be an injury crisis for me! We'll be fine!
Jfox Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 Considering we're breaking records weekly, I don't fear anyone. This team is capable of winning the league - and in serious style. Although it's worth noting that it was this weekend a year ago we were away at Peterborough... Maybe we'll break the record to be the first team top after 29 games and finish 7th
surrifox Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 "new Leicester" can hopefully avoid the sort of downturn in form that we have seen in previous years where we pick up 4 or 5 points out of a possible 18. Our bounce back after reverses at Brighton, Sheff and to forest shows a more resilient approach and Nige seems able to make adjustments to the team when called upon without the displaced player being consigned to the outer darkness or looking like a flop or an outcast - restoring them when he feels they can make a contribution again
norfolkfox222 Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 avaerage 1 point a game will see us on 83, surely it cant **** up this year. please
lcfc1994 Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 Ok... In the last 10 seasons 3 of the teams that were top after 29 games didn't win the league. After 29 nine games the amount of points clear of third: 11/12 West Ham: 6 points off 3rd on 56 pts 06/07 Derby: 3 points off third on 56 pts 04/05 Ipswich: 6 points off 3rd on 59 pts We are 13 points clear of 3rd on 66 pts
6ups 6downs 2 cups Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 Thing that us reassuring is the amount of experience we now have, if we were to lose a couple there appears to be enough mentally astute players to ensure it stays a blip, this was not there last season. Last year we had Harry Kane, now it's KP, GTF etc
Mark_from_USA Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 Look at 'expected return'. I categorized it like this:Home games against non playoff teams (3 points expected) Watford, Ipswich, Charlton, Blackpool, Yeovil, Wednesday, Brighton, Doncaster = 24 pointsHome games against playoff teams (1 point expected ) QPR = 1 pointAway games against non playoff teams (1 point expected) Wigan, Barnsley, Blackburn, Bolton, Huddersfield = 5 pointsAway games against playoff teams (0 points expected) Forest, Burnley, Reading = 0 points66 + 24 + 1 + 5 = 96 points, which should be good for the title. This is pessimistic for the away games. If they do better away they will get over 100.
MattGamble92 Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 Considering we're breaking records weekly, I don't fear anyone. This team is capable of winning the league - and in serious style. Although it's worth noting that it was this weekend a year ago we were away at Peterborough... This weekend a year ago i was nearly crushed to death then....
Bagworthblue Posted 5 February 2014 Author Posted 5 February 2014 It was this weekend last year our bad run started. Great if we can get a win and put that to bed.
Kitchandro Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 People think about this stuff too much. These stats don't tell us anything we don't already know.
Bagworthblue Posted 5 February 2014 Author Posted 5 February 2014 People think about this stuff too much. These stats don't tell us anything we don't already know. I know - I came to that conclusion at the end of my post.
sylofox Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 I do wish people would stop promoting us using stats. This season will be one of next seasons stats and we could be using them all over again. We have just won 9 on the trot and a 10th win is not impossible. Equally this could also not be impossible. We lose the next 10 and Burnley and Qpr win there next 10. Are we still going up then ffs 1 game at a time and stop playing the season out on a calculator and PC. The game is played on grass FFS.
Mark_from_USA Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 I don't think anyone is 'promoting' using this stuff. think the maths aspect is just part of the fun. Its another angle to analyze and play around with. A lot of the sponsorship is from gambling outfits anyway - its part of the fun of the game. So why not have a go at being our own amateur bookie and trying to develop our own analysis, to see how close we are able to come, and how our analysis plays out?
harpendenfox Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 Very true Sylo. Every word you say is true. It still won't stop muppets like me and many others from speculating. Now, if we can beat Watford on Saturday, draw at F*****.......
sdb Posted 5 February 2014 Posted 5 February 2014 Win the next 2 games and all bar Burnley and QPR will give up on autos. Win the 2 after that and we'll be as good as up...
Bagworthblue Posted 6 February 2014 Author Posted 6 February 2014 I do wish people would stop promoting us using stats. This season will be one of next seasons stats and we could be using them all over again. We have just won 9 on the trot and a 10th win is not impossible. Equally this could also not be impossible. We lose the next 10 and Burnley and Qpr win there next 10. Are we still going up then ffs 1 game at a time and stop playing the season out on a calculator and PC. The game is played on grass FFS. Each to their own . Personally if a topic doesn't interest me , I leave it to those who are interested to converse without feeling the need to criticise. I live in a world of stats and happen to enjoy playing with spreadsheets but appreciate it doesnt float everyones boat.
Bob Weasel Fox Posted 6 February 2014 Posted 6 February 2014 We will be fine we will however literally please lets just take things one game at a time . . . . .
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