Our system detected that your browser is blocking advertisements on our site. Please help support FoxesTalk by disabling any kind of ad blocker while browsing this site. Thank you.
Jump to content
ThurnbyLodgeFox

What game can we mathematically go up?

Recommended Posts

Posted

Is it an early kick off? (Burnley) drop in the Parcel Yard when you stagger off the train. I may be in there or the Kings Head if no one can make it. Still got some party poppers from NYE which i am saving for the occasion.

Posted

Is it an early kick off? (Burnley) drop in the Parcel Yard when you stagger off the train. I may be in there or the Kings Head if no one can make it. Still got some party poppers from NYE which i am saving for the occasion.

 

I originally thought that said you've got some poppers saved from NYE for when we get promotion lol lol

Posted

Lot of talk about how many points required  to get u, here's a list of games to the end of the season involving the top eight

Derby Forest

QPR Wigan

Burnley Foxes

Wigan Foxes

Foxes Brighton

QPR Forest

Reading Foxes

Wigan Reading

Foxes QPR

Burnley Wigan

Forest Brighton 

Reading Burnley

 

Looking at that lot and obviously one or both teams will drop points, I would say Burnley away or Brighton at Home could do it.....top four (excluding Derby) have three games against each other....Derby and Brighton have the easiest run ins, and I can't see Billy's Boys making it.....dare I say last game of the season they play Brighton at home......last minute breakaway goal for the Seagulls anyone? Sound familiar?

Posted

dont write yeovil off getting a result. They know a win gets them out the drop zone and are fighting for their lives.

 

Lets hope wigan get complacent and underestimate them.

 

Come to me for your betting needs lol

Posted

But this post in another thread but really it should be in here:

I have been doing the Maths and it is looking more and more likely it will be Wigan away. The maths below show three different scenarios with what I believe (subjective of course and I'm sure loads will disagree) as the most likely result and scenario 2 as what I believe again as the 2nd most likely result in the games and scenario 3 what I feel is the least likely result. I hope it all makes sense.

 
 
Derby
Derby v Nottingham Forest 
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 3 points
least likely = 0 points
 
Ipswich v Derby
Most likely = 0 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 3 points
 
Derby v Charlton
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
QPR
Middlesbrough v QPR
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 0 points
least likely = 3 points
 
QPR v Wigan 
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 3 points
least likely = 0 Points
 
QPR v Blackpool
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
Wigan
Wigan v Watford
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
QPR v Wigan
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 0 points
least likely = 3 points
 
Bolton v Wigan
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
So to summarise and give totals to my madness (this season has sent me delirious) 
I believe the most likely set of results will mean the following points total.
Most likely results (Scenario 1)
Derby = 4 points
QPR =  5 points
Wigan = 7 points
 
2nd most likely results (Scenario 2)
Derby = 3 points
QPR =  4 points
Wigan = 2 points
 
Least likely results (Scenario 3)
Derby = 3 points
QPR =  3 points
Wigan = 3 points
 
What this means for us and points needed to secure promotion.
 
Scenario 1 - If we win against Blackburn, Yeovil and Burnley it would put us on 89 points but QPR could still get 89 points and Wigan could get 91 points so we could secure promotion by winning or drawing at Wigan it would also mean if we drew against one of the other teams before the Wigan game a win at Wigan would also secure promotion as Wigan could only then achieve 88 or 89 points and we would be on 90 points. 
 
Scenario 2 - If we win against Blackburn and Yeovil and then beat Burnley it would mean we would be on 89 points and promotion would be secured later that day when we are not playing as each of the teams drop points and the maximum Derby could achieve would be 87, QPR 88 and Wigan 85
 
Sceanrio 3 - If we win against Blackburn and Yeovil and then  beat Burnley again it would mean that promotion could be secured without us playing after the Wigan game.
 
What I am trying to say is that I believe it points towards the Wigan away game, I know I will be shot down as there are so many ifs and buts, BUT scenario one also has the most leaway in terms of a win at the DW stadium securing it for us. 
 
Hope I havent bored you too much with this and see you at Ewood on Saturday. 
Posted

I see your no romantic. All the posters over the whole forum love the speculation and discussion on probabilties that go with it. Of course time will tell, of course one can wait until the ifs n whens become definite, but then, that would make the season boring, its the ifs n buts that make a football season what it is.

What I now find interesting is how many city supporters look at Wigan and believe they cant make a winning run.

Why shouldnt they...city have, and many hope we can win all.

looking at the fixtures, Wigan could pull off the impossible.

 

 

It's also pointless discussing the merits of certain players or tactics as we don't pick the team. It's a bit of fun and not hurting anyone so why get so snooty about it?

 

As I said, if you want to play a shit guessing game then fine but that's not what the thread was started as otherwise it'd be called "when do you think we will get mathematically promoted", but the OP asked when we could go up, and the answer at the moment is at any time depending on other results, very simple.

Posted

94 points required.

 

As poor as Derby and QPR have been over the last few weeks I expect them to both win at the weekend.

 

In fact I think it is most likely to be the game against Sheff Wed or Brighton.

Posted

sheff wed ....

 

Saturday March 22   Saturday March 22   Saturday March 22 Saturday March 22 target   24 14 14 15:00   15:00   15:00 12:15   LCFC BFC QPR DBY Championship   Championship   Championship Championship game 3 3 0 0 Blackburn Rovers fp Charlton   Middlesbrough Derby County total pts 83 76 63 63 Leicester City   Burnley   QPR N Forest SS 1 HD diiff   7 20 20 Tuesday March 25   Tuesday March 25   Tuesday March 25 Tuesday March 25 target   21 8 8 19:45   19:45   19:45 19:45   LCFC BFC QPR DBY Championship   Championship   Championship Championship game 3 3 1 3 Leicester City   Burnley   QPR Ipswich Town total pts 86 79 64 66 Yeovil Town w Doncaster Rovers   Wigan Athletic Derby County diiff   7 22 20 Saturday March 29   Saturday March 29   Saturday March 29 Saturday March 29 target   18 3 5 15:00   15:00   15:00 15:00   LCFC BFC QPR DBY Championship   Championship   Championship Championship game 1 1 3 3 Burnley fpr Burnley   QPR Derby County total pts 87 80 67 69 Leicester City   Leicester City   Blackpool Charlton diiff   7 20 18 SS 1 HD   SS 1 HD       target   15 2 4 Tuesday April 1                     19:45             LCFC       Championship           game 1       Wigan Athletic fp         total pts 88 80 67 69 Leicester City           diiff   8 21 19             target   14 1 3 Friday April 4   Saturday April 5   Saturday April 5 Saturday April 5           15:00   15:00   15:00 15:00 game LCFC BFC QPR DBY Championship   Championship   Championship Championship total pts 3 3 1 3 Leicester City   Watford   Bournemouth Middlesbrough diiff 91 83 68 72 Sheff Wed f Burnley   QPR Derby County target   8 23 19 Tuesday April 8   Tuesday April 8   Tuesday April 8 Tuesday April 8     11 -4 0
Posted

 

But this post in another thread but really it should be in here:

I have been doing the Maths and it is looking more and more likely it will be Wigan away. The maths below show three different scenarios with what I believe (subjective of course and I'm sure loads will disagree) as the most likely result and scenario 2 as what I believe again as the 2nd most likely result in the games and scenario 3 what I feel is the least likely result. I hope it all makes sense.

 
 
Derby
Derby v Nottingham Forest 
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 3 points
least likely = 0 points
 
Ipswich v Derby
Most likely = 0 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 3 points
 
Derby v Charlton
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
QPR
Middlesbrough v QPR
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 0 points
least likely = 3 points
 
QPR v Wigan 
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 3 points
least likely = 0 Points
 
QPR v Blackpool
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
Wigan
Wigan v Watford
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
QPR v Wigan
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 0 points
least likely = 3 points
 
Bolton v Wigan
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
So to summarise and give totals to my madness (this season has sent me delirious) 
I believe the most likely set of results will mean the following points total.
Most likely results (Scenario 1)
Derby = 4 points
QPR =  5 points
Wigan = 7 points
 
2nd most likely results (Scenario 2)
Derby = 3 points
QPR =  4 points
Wigan = 2 points
 
Least likely results (Scenario 3)
Derby = 3 points
QPR =  3 points
Wigan = 3 points
 
What this means for us and points needed to secure promotion.
 
Scenario 1 - If we win against Blackburn, Yeovil and Burnley it would put us on 89 points but QPR could still get 89 points and Wigan could get 91 points so we could secure promotion by winning or drawing at Wigan it would also mean if we drew against one of the other teams before the Wigan game a win at Wigan would also secure promotion as Wigan could only then achieve 88 or 89 points and we would be on 90 points. 
 
Scenario 2 - If we win against Blackburn and Yeovil and then beat Burnley it would mean we would be on 89 points and promotion would be secured later that day when we are not playing as each of the teams drop points and the maximum Derby could achieve would be 87, QPR 88 and Wigan 85
 
Sceanrio 3 - If we win against Blackburn and Yeovil and then  beat Burnley again it would mean that promotion could be secured without us playing after the Wigan game.
 
What I am trying to say is that I believe it points towards the Wigan away game, I know I will be shot down as there are so many ifs and buts, BUT scenario one also has the most leaway in terms of a win at the DW stadium securing it for us. 
 
Hope I havent bored you too much with this and see you at Ewood on Saturday. 

 

 

I've been saying Wigan away for a couple of weeks now.

 

If we beat Blackburn on Saturday I'm convinced that, at the very least, we'll have the chance to secure promotion with a win at Wigan.

Posted

Wigan would be just my luck: one of only two matches in the three weeks from 29 March that's not on television. So I am hoping for a dropped couple of points along the way, so it is Sheff W when we get promoted, and Reading or - even better - QPR when we get to be Champions.

 

Always assuming, of course, that we do get promoted and, if we do, we do become Champions.

Posted

If we can win it at Wigan I'd be seriously tempted to drive down to the game. Would be immense.... but I still think the Sheff Weds game. 

Posted

Before QPR at home so that Barton has to be part of a guard of honour and hand a bouquet of flowers to De Laet (muttering "It was never a red card") whilst Johnson, Zamora and Jenas all suffer from broken arms due to the weight of the flowers so squad numbers 59-61 get late call ups.

Posted

For us to be promoted vs Wigan, QPR have to drop points at home to Blackpool and Derby have to drop points at home to Charlton, so its more likely going to be Wednesday at home.

Posted

We still need 13 points, so if Qpr, Derby & Wigan drop points it will be sooner

So, if we were to win our next three games we would be there? Either QPR or Wigan will drop points when they play each other and Wigan would drop points against us. We would just need Derby to not win all three of their next games?

Either way I hope we secure this on the pitch against Wigan, Sheffield Wed or even Brighton. Something about being promoted by other teams dropping points on a day we aren't playing which wouldn't be as fun. I am thinking of results going our way the Saturday after our Friday night game as an example.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...