The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

The polls are baffling me, it's been tight for months then in one week we had remain surge (as much as +14 ) into as lead and now it's pretty much back on a level footing again, I don't know how they can come to this conclusion, people can't be changing their minds week after week surely?

 

The only logical conclusion that can be drawn is that the pollster have absolutely no idea what people are thinking, you can add even more indifference to that if the turnout is going to be 60% as well.

 

I'm almost at the point where nothing will surprise me, a strong remain vote, a close one or a strong leave one, no exit poll either for this on the night so we'll be guessing for a while.

Expect it means things are pretty 50/50 - when you toss a coin, you can always get a run of heads, but it doesn't stop things from being 50/50.

The other theory would be that the economy argument was hitting home until them immigration figures were released and that produced a swing back?

But the big unknown in all of the polls is the amount of "unknowns" - which have been consistently around the 14% mark. I would suggest at least 5-7% would end up voting and in a block way (swayed by whatever last minute arguments are put forward). That is potentially where the result is going to come from, I don't see much of a swing happening between the identified Remain / Brexiters.

[Alf Bentley]

Even though the broadcasters are not doing an exit poll, it seems that hedge funds are commissioning them privately, hoping to use them on the day to use advanced knowledge of likely currency / stock movements to profit from trading:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/eu-referendum-hedge-fund-bets-may-send-early-signal-of-brexit-vote-outcome-experts-warn-a7057636.html

 

So, on 23rd June, if anything dramatic starts happening in the markets - particularly the currency market - that might be an early indicator of the outcome.

[Rincewind]

I see Wetherspoons have brought out beer mats supporting Brexit. Tim Martin supports out. I do not see how wanting out is racist.

It is not just immigration that concerns people. Whether we stay or leave theTories or any other Government in power will still have the upper hand over the British public. The EU has no control over our laws.

[Guest MattP]

Do you know why there's no exit poll? For the Scottish referendum, I think the broadcasters just chose not to commission one. Same thing? Sounds as if the result will be known by breakfast time, at the latest, though.

 

There's going to be a right row if the result is close.

 

Imagine if there's a narrow Brexit vote but Scotland has voted massively for Remain - or if the Scottish vote tips it for Remain but England votes narrowly for Brexit? 

I imagine there'll be some big disparities even within England, too.

 

It's too wide ranging to put into practice, on General Election day they set up outside swing seat polling stations to give an accurate indication as you can already predict 450-500 odd of the 650 seats in parliament quite comfortably, for this they don't really have the means to predict it accurately unless they are in every town or village in the country.

 

I've been saying for a few weeks that England and Wales could well vote out and be kept in by the other nations, where does that leave us? People only seem to think the Scottish and Northern Irish are going to be the only ones effected by others voting to do something they vote against.

 

I see Wetherspoons have brought out beer mats supporting Brexit. Tim Martin supports out. I do not see how wanting out is racist.

It is not just immigration that concerns people. Whether we stay or leave theTories or any other Government in power will still have the upper hand over the British public. The EU has no control over our laws.

 

The EU has no control over our laws?

 

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-law-what-proportion-influenced-eu/

 

 

Fantastic news on the beer mats though, I suspect we are at the most a couple of days from some snobby Labour MP (Lady Nugee odds on) making a comment about "the sort who drink in Weatherspoons" that will further alienate them from their voting core.

[johnny the fox]

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/europes-border-crisis/dalai-lama-thinks-europe-has-let-too-many-refugees-n583701?  my man the Lama is never wrong.....  wisdom on legs...

[Rincewind]

It's too wide ranging to put into practice, on General Election day they set up outside swing seat polling stations to give an accurate indication as you can already predict 450-500 odd of the 650 seats in parliament quite comfortably, for this they don't really have the means to predict it accurately unless they are in every town or village in the country.

 

I've been saying for a few weeks that England and Wales could well vote out and be kept in by the other nations, where does that leave us? People only seem to think the Scottish and Northern Irish are going to be the only ones effected by others voting to do something they vote against.

 

 

The EU has no control over our laws?

 

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-law-what-proportion-influenced-eu/

 

 

Fantastic news on the beer mats though, I suspect we are at the most a couple of days from some snobby Labour MP (Lady Nugee odds on) making a comment about "the sort who drink in Weatherspoons" that will further alienate them from their voting core.

I would also include snobby Tory Lib Dem and independent peers in that. That is what snobby is all about. Putting the little man down thinking they a better than the next person. I seem to recall some on here saying the sort that go in Wetherspoons are out of work alcoholics spending their benefit money.

Interesting stats. Maybe I should have phrased it better. There are laws that have been around for years that the EU have no control of. I am leaning towards out but have concerns about whether our government whoever is in will have more freedom to do as they like without any outside body saying that is wrong. With all the scare stories it is hard to believe anything though.

[Alf Bentley]

I've been saying for a few weeks that England and Wales could well vote out and be kept in by the other nations, where does that leave us? People only seem to think the Scottish and Northern Irish are going to be the only ones effected by others voting to do something they vote against.

 

 

 

Yep, England narrowly voting Leave and Scotland tipping it for Remain is one of several potential scenarios. However, Scotland & N. Ireland could only swing the result if the vote in England is close, given the size of the respective populations.

 

Today's "i" has an article suggesting that turnout in Scotland might be very low due to voter fatigue (independence referendum, general election, Scottish parliament elections) and to a perception that the EU referendum is irrelevant to Scots as it's an argument between English Tories and Kippers. If so, a low turnout in Scotland could benefit Brexit - and would mainly be the fault of Remain for not inspiring potential supporters up there. For the SNP it might be a deliberate strategy: Scotland voting Remain but English voters.winning it for Brexit is a dream scenario for SNP hopes of Scottish independence.

 

Where does this leave us? Abiding by the majority vote in our nation state (UK) as a whole should be the answer. But unless there's an unexpectedly clear-cut outcome, I assume there'll be anger and bitterness from parts of the country that voted the opposite way to the majority. Such disparities are pretty much guaranteed, too. Whatever the result nationally, surely Scotland and London will definitely vote Remain, and areas of the East and SE that are less prosperous and where immigration is a big issue will definitely vote Leave, along with parts of the deindustralised North? 

[Guest MattP]

We'll see more serious divisions across society Alf, we were talking about this last week regarding London and no one shy was really shy about saying it wasn't an English city anymore anyway, the referendum could have little effect or it could change the demographic of English politics for some considerable time.

Did anyone see Cameron and Khan sharing a stage yesterday? Khan is a lot more forgiving than I would be given what the Prime Minister was saying about him just a few weeks ago in the run up to the London elections. It's also just just how little shame Call me Dave has.

[Dr The Singh]

We'll see more serious divisions across society Alf, we were talking about this last week regarding London and no one shy was really shy about saying it wasn't an English city anymore anyway, the referendum could have little effect or it could change the demographic of English politics for some considerable time.

Did anyone see Cameron and Khan sharing a stage yesterday? Khan is a lot more forgiving than I would be given what the Prime Minister was saying about him just a few weeks ago in the run up to the London elections. It's also just just how little shame Call me Dave has.

Shame both have!! Both career politicians!

[Alf Bentley]

We'll see more serious divisions across society Alf, we were talking about this last week regarding London and no one shy was really shy about saying it wasn't an English city anymore anyway, the referendum could have little effect or it could change the demographic of English politics for some considerable time.

Did anyone see Cameron and Khan sharing a stage yesterday? Khan is a lot more forgiving than I would be given what the Prime Minister was saying about him just a few weeks ago in the run up to the London elections. It's also just just how little shame Call me Dave has.

 

 

I'm not sure what an "English city" is or whether London has ever been one. It's long been an international, trading city, even before it became a global city economically and culturally, like Paris and New York - and before international migration reached its current levels.

 

As a racial mongrel in a nation of racial mongrels I have no problem with that, so long as we all maintain mutual respect, understanding and democratic values.

 

I don't see serious social divisions as caused by a lack of racial purity, as you seem to suggest (I assume it's the increasingly multiracial nature of London that makes it non-English to you?). I see them as caused by growing inequality, by people lacking a positive role in life and by a lack of those values of mutual respect, understanding and democracy. Anyway, I don't want to get into yet another debate about race - I'll leave that to the people who are obsessed about it.

 

Dr. the Singh is right about Cameron and Khan: a pair of career politicians. Cameron felt it was in his interest to knowingly lie about Khan and to then shamelessly share a platform with him. Khan felt it was in his interest to overlook the slander and to shamelessly share a platform with Cameron. Politics can be principled and idealistic but it's pretty cynical just now and will get even dirtier and more cynical in the next 3 weeks and thereafter, I'm sure.

[Dr The Singh]

I'm not sure what an "English city" is or whether London has ever been one. It's long been an international, trading city, even before it became a global city economically and culturally, like Paris and New York - and before international migration reached its current levels.

As a racial mongrel in a nation of racial mongrels I have no problem with that, so long as we all maintain mutual respect, understanding and democratic values.

I don't see serious social divisions as caused by a lack of racial purity, as you seem to suggest (I assume it's the increasingly multiracial nature of London that makes it non-English to you?). I see them as caused by growing inequality, by people lacking a positive role in life and by a lack of those values of mutual respect, understanding and democracy. Anyway, I don't want to get into yet another debate about race - I'll leave that to the people who are obsessed about it.

Dr. the Singh is right about Cameron and Khan: a pair of career politicians. Cameron felt it was in his interest to knowingly lie about Khan and to then shamelessly share a platform with him. Khan felt it was in his interest to overlook the slander and to shamelessly share a platform with Cameron. Politics can be principled and idealistic but it's pretty cynical just now and will get even dirtier and more cynical in the next 3 weeks and thereafter, I'm sure.

I think politics is made for me, I will fit right in...there's not enough sexiness in politics, that's where I fit in.....I will bring the fittest birds with me.

[davieG]

I think politics is made for me, I will fit right in...there's not enough sexiness in politics, that's where I fit in.....I will bring the fittest birds with me.

You wont win any votes though as you'd keep them all to yourself which will make them happy and well satisfied enough.

 

On reflection it would suit you, lying about all the fittest birds you'd attract and then keeping them all to yourself sounds like the stereotypical Politician

[Buce]

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/europes-border-crisis/dalai-lama-thinks-europe-has-let-too-many-refugees-n583701? my man the Lamais never wrong..... wisdom on legs...

Carl?

[Dr The Singh]

You wont win any votes though as you'd keep them all to yourself which will make them happy and well satisfied enough.

On reflection it would suit you, lying about all the fittest birds you'd attract and then keeping them all to yourself sounds like the stereotypical Politician

Absolutely, I am the king of lying when it comes to telling the Mrs about how faithful I am to her, this lying to the public, people I don't give a fook about will be a doddle!

[Great Boos Up]

Never dare post on here but the silent middle England tax trodden pissed off masses will vote out.

[ramboacdc]

had my postal vote come through. voted remain. better the devil you know. 

[Dr The Singh]

Never dare post on here but the silent middle England tax trodden pissed off masses will vote out.

What's wrong with that

[DJ Barry Hammond]

I think politics is made for me, I will fit right in...there's not enough sexiness in politics, that's where I fit in.....I will bring the fittest birds with me.

The culture secretary and a couple of SNP MP's beg to disagree with you on your later point.

[Rincewind]

Just watched a short version of Brexit The Movie.The Moment of Truth.Think I have changed to leave. My reason is hard to explain The film may make it clearer.

[Sharpe's Fox]

Just watched a short version of Brexit The Movie.The Moment of Truth.Think I have changed to leave. My reason is hard to explain The film may make it clearer.

Really? I'm quite surprised, Ken. I watched it and it seems to me it puts forward a more right-wing, Tory view for leaving pines for a Victorian way of living where there was no regulation (a bad thing) and workers were basically slaves. It didn't influence me as a Labour voter one bit because the type of country I'd like to see post-Brexit was completely different to the one presented.

[SMX11]

Really? I'm quite surprised, Ken. I watched it and it seems to me it puts forward a more right-wing, Tory view for leaving pines for a Victorian way of living where there was no regulation (a bad thing) and workers were basically slaves. It didn't influence me as a Labour voter one bit because the type of country I'd like to see post-Brexit was completely different to the one presented.

It showed the comparison between Germany and Us after the war. Germany being free from regulation by government and us being centrally planned by 'wise men'. Regulation is made with good intentions but stifles innovation and crushes competition (in favour of existing players).

It was the Classical Liberal case the Conservative party doesn't represent that.

[Alf Bentley]

Never dare post on here but the silent middle England tax trodden pissed off masses will vote out.

 

 

I'm curious as to why you say that you "never dare post on here"? What's the worst that can happen? Someone says you're talking crap - or that I am? 

People express all sorts of views on here and the place is the better for it.

 

I tend to agree that there will be a big vote for Leave. Big enough to win it? No idea.

 

However, silent or not, I've a sneaky feeling that the middle England tax-trodden pissed-off masses will still be tax trodden and pissed off whatever the outcome.

[Dodgy Bob]

Heard similar views expressed at work the other day, there does seem to be a portion of people who think a vote to leave represents sticking it to the man. I suppose it does if 'the man' is the EU, but for most people I think 'the man' is the British government of the day, to whom a vote to leave would only give more power and centralise more of that power in the corridors of westminster

[Webbo]

Heard similar views expressed at work the other day, there does seem to be a portion of people who think a vote to leave represents sticking it to the man. I suppose it does if 'the man' is the EU, but for most people I think 'the man' is the British government of the day, to whom a vote to leave would only give more power and centralise more of that power in the corridors of westminster

That would be awful . Giving power to the govt we elect instead of unelected bureaucrats.

[SMX11]

Just seen that a 'mistake' has been made and some EU nationals have received polling cards.