The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Hang on a second, if the German car.... could benefit from less competition, does that mean being in the EU is a disadvantage? You can't have it both ways.

For the German, French and Italian car manufactures - the UK being in the EU with its big car producing plants could be a disadvantage to them, yes.

For example, we produced something in the region of 1.6 million cars last year and the industry employs around 800,000 people up and down the country (skilled manufacturing jobs, plus supply chains etc). Currently, over half of those produced (57%) goes into Europe.

On the reverse, the top selling German car in the 2014 UK market was the VW golf - it sold about 75,000 in total - so the question would be when negotiating on this area who holds the stronger hand? Who needs tariff free trade more?

Now I would say, having free trade on cars between the UK and the EU in event of an exit would be as important to us as the other way round... so that doesn't give us any advantage to negotiate better terms elsewhere in a deal - say budget contribution or Freedom of Movement.

You could argue the 'need' to maintain trade conditions in this scenario is almost a draw, but the EU could possibly have a slight advantage because I imagine it would be a lot easier for their manufactures to ride out a 2/3 year period of exporting to the UK with tariffs (in the knowledge that could significantly weaken the UK's car producing position), than the other way round.

[Guest MattP]

Again, warning of budget cuts is just a perfectly logical expansion on the expected economic effects of leaving. You can't intentionally plunge the country into recession and not expect there to be serious consequences. Osborne has already made a lot of cuts and implemented a lot of stealth taxes and public finances still aren't in great shape. A hammer blow to the economy now would be a disaster and will inevitably lead to tax rises.

Why is everything like this being labeled a "scare tactic"? Are brexiters seriously going to close their eyes, put their fingers in their ears and just pretend that economic consequences don't exist? We're already seeing them in the financial markets. Some of the best financial analysts in the world are withdrawing billions from the market in fear of a Brexit. Everybody's pension has already taken a hammering because of this. The pound is looking pathetic already. Do we really, seriously want to go down this road of intentionally making ourselves poor here?

 

57 Conservative MP's (already!) have said they will vote down any emergency budget from the chancellor so his threats are already obselete unless he can garner about 40 MP's from Labour or the SNP for huge tax rises and budget cuts, which is about as likely as me playing front for City next season.

 

The only thing George Osborne should be drawing up on June 24th now is a removal van for number11, whether we vote to stay or leave, this has made his already unstable position untenable.

 

Just how do they think they were going to get away with this? They must have known when they promised this referendum there was a chance of losing it, therefore how could they commit to it given the consequence of leaving would be so disastrous? Did they really think they would be able to bully the whole country into viting to stay, did Cameron think his video telling the CBI we'd be fine in or out the EU wouldn't be revived?

 

I'm at a loss trying to explain this lot at the minute, it must have been like watch a guy cling onto a railing on the Titanic as it was going down.

 

Extra help for failing to grasp the economic realities of being outside the largest economy in the World. The EU. Why would anyone give up their jobs in the EU to allow the UK to take jobs away? Why would anyone invest in the UK without having access to the Single Market.

There is no future for bright, educated, aspiring individuals in a Britain that needlessly casts itself aside from other nations.

Will the last person leaving the UK please turn out the light.

 

At last count there were about 200 countries in the World, the vast vast majority of those countries are not in the European Union, most of them do perfectly fine, even those countries inside Europe and not in the European Union do perfectly fine, to try and claim no one is going to create jobs or invest here if we are outside is nonsense, the Chinese had no problem pumping in billions despite the upcoming referendum, the Americans have no trade deal with the EU and do more trade with us than most. Yes the markets are volatile but that's down to uncertainty more than anything. (I didn't see you begging us to vote Tory last year when the markets were unstable at the prospect of a change of government btw)

 

Our own treasury who have been threatening us produced a report from the IFS saying that we would go into recession should we leave, it also said it would be the most shallow recession ever. We are lurching from fantasy to the ridiculous with figures of 30billion worth of cuts to £4,500 less in our pockets by 2030.

 

I have no problem with people putting forward an argument we'll be worse off outside the EU, it's a perfectly reasonable position to take, but this silly 'The Sun' style "last person leaving the UK please turn out the light" when we are talking about the fifith biggest economy in the World is complete utter nonsense and you know it. It's pathetic hyperbole.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

The other area often mentioned on the argument of "they need us more than we need them" is French Farmers... yet we import around 60% of our food consumption - so in that position it would be silly for us to want to enforce a high tariff of food imports from the EU. That makes me believe that this is an area we'd need to concede on anyway, so we don't hold great bargaining power here.

[Guest MattP]

Jacob Rees-Mogg - "To threaten voters with a punishment budget if you don't do what the government says a week before they vote is political deviance of the highest order, the member for Tatton even made a law last year so no chancellor could raise income tax unless it was stated in the manifesto they were elected on, for a start there is a minimum two year period before we leave the European Union in the event of a leave vote, if he reads the treaties carefully he'd see there is no need for any sort of panic or emergency fiscal policy, for the chancellor to jettison Conservative principles for his Europhilia is extremely unwise, I would have no problem voting against a Conservative budget that was designed to punish people for not doing what George Osborne says"

 

I think that's one letter to the 1922 committee already signed.

[Guest MattP]

Worth mentioning again here that the official government treasury prediction was a -0.4 growth figure on the back of departing the EU - the shallowest recession since the 50's.

 

So even if you believe the worst it's really not anything to be that scared of.

[Thracian]

Yes there are fluctuations, but if your negotiating a deal the market conditions at that point become extra important - so having a fall in economic position as you enter into negotiations weakens your position somewhat.

I also think the argument on German car manufactures and French farmers is far too simplistic. Those sectors could benefit from not having British imports of cars and farm produce to compete against - plus a lot of product coming in from those countries is high grade stuff, which is more resilient in terms of pricing.

Our debt is huge and we're running a deficit at the moment which means that debt is going up further still despite our economy showing some resilience so any short term hit could have far reaching consequences - and difficult decisions in terms of how we move forward.

 

 

Our debt's not going to fall in the EU and could well improve outside. But not with irresponsible economics.   

[Dodgy Bob]

The BBC are reporting that Osborne has warned of an emergency budget but I can't see where he has said that in the quotes. If he has actually threatened an emergency budget soon after a leave vote then I'd agree that's out of order, but if all he is saying, as it seems from the quotes, is that if the economic forecasts are correct he'll need to cut spending and raise taxes then he's well within his rights to do that.

I'm amazed that a Conservative party chancellor who won an election on the back of sensible economic comments like that is being criticised so much for continuing in the same way. People are becoming very entrenched and almost tribal about this now.

[Guest MattP]

Anyone watching Daily Politics? Never seen Andrew Neil so angry.

He's torn Ed Vaizey to shreds over the punishment budget and now just cut off Seema Malhotra for not answering questions.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Anyone watching Daily Politics? Never seen Andrew Neil so angry.

He's torn Ed Vaizey to shreds over the punishment budget and now just cut off Seema Malhotra for not answering questions.

It wouldn't be voted through anyway - Labour (quite rightly), Darling aside, have shot Osbornes fox very quickly.

[Captain...]

I do find it disappointing that there has been no actual Brexit strategy, of course we will be able to prosper without the EU, but there seems to be no actual indication of how. Leaving the EU throws open a lot of possibilities, such as EFTA, but not without consequences, EFTA members subscribe to freedom of movement too and pay into the EU.

 

The problem is having any sort of plan will immediately divide people, there is an assumption by some that we will join EFTA or make a similar agreement with the EU, but that would alienate Brexiteers who are more concerned about immigrants. I am not completely opposed to leaving the EU but will not vote for such a massive unknown which could have all kinds of consequences. Not least is Boris as PM.

[Guest MattP]

I'm amazed that a Conservative party chancellor who won an election on the back of sensible economic comments like that is being criticised so much for continuing in the same way. People are becoming very entrenched and almost tribal about this now.

 

Can you really not see why people are so angry?

 

Me and lot of other people voted for the Conservatives on the basis of some moderate cuts, less taxtation and a referendum on the European Union, at no point in that manifesto did it actually mention "Oh btw voters if you vote to leave in our promised referendum all the promises are in the bin"

 

As Barry says above, it's already been shot anyway, one he won't be chancellor and two it won't get anywhere near being voting through the HoC.

 

PMQ's is making me sick, a remain love in between Corbyn and Cameron

[johnny the fox]

Nice to see the multi millionaire bob geldof out there on the Thames ridiculing our fishermen fighting to save what's left of their decimated industry...

[Webbo]

Has PMQ s ever been so sycophantic?

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Nice to see the multi millionaire bob geldof out there on the Thames ridiculing our fishermen fighting to save what's left of their decimated industry...

He didn't start with those millions though did he? He's managed to make that life for himself.

[johnny the fox]

He didn't start with those millions though did he? He's managed to make that life for himself.

ok that makes it alright then.. I don't remember the trawler men  picketing the sound studio's when he was recording the utter shight he dished out...perhaps they should of done ...

[DJ Barry Hammond]

ok that makes it alright then..

Well he's a self made man, I think many would respect that.

Does having money mean you can't voice an opinion? Does it make a point of you instantly invalid?

[Dodgy Bob]

Can you really not see why people are so angry?

Me and lot of other people voted for the Conservatives on the basis of some moderate cuts, less taxtation and a referendum on the European Union, at no point in that manifesto did it actually mention "Oh btw voters if you vote to leave in our promised referendum all the promises are in the bin"

As Barry says above, it's already been shot anyway, one he won't be chancellor and two it won't get anywhere near being voting through the HoC.

PMQ's is making me sick, a remain love in between Corbyn and Cameron

They promised a referendum and that's what you've got. They were obviously going to take a position on the referendum as it approached and that's what they've done. Most of what they're talking about is to do with medium and long term consequences which fall outside the scope of their election manifesto. If Osborne thinks leaving the EU will be harmful to the economy over the next 3, 5, 15 years then no, I don't see why any conservative voter should be angry at him for expressing those concerns.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

They promised a referendum and that's what you've got. They were obviously going to take a position on the referendum as it approached and that's what they've done. Most of what they're talking about is to do with medium and long term consequences which fall outside the scope of their election manifesto. If Osborne thinks leaving the EU will be harmful to the economy over the next 3, 5, 15 years then no, I don't see why any conservative voter should be angry at him for expressing those concerns.

I wouldn't try and defend this Osborne stunt - it was ill advised. The bigger question is now he's made his position untenable (either way to be honest), who's the next Chancellor!

[johnny the fox]

[bovril]

All this reverse snobbery stuff is so British isn't it. "Liberal metropolitan elites", "out of touch with the man on the street", "multimillionaire Bob Geldof" (ok Geldof's a **** to be fair). Still, it seems politicians of all colours are falling over themselves to prove they are 'prolier than thou'.

[johnny the fox]

Well he's a self made man, I think many would respect that.

Does having money mean you can't voice an opinion? Does it make a point of you instantly invalid?

I'm a "self made man" but I wouldn't dream of hiring a boat and screaming abuse at people who haven't been as fortunate as I have and are trying to save what they have got left of their industry...but that's just me though..

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ck_JORjXIAAJmOU.jpg:large

[leicsmac]

All this reverse snobbery stuff is so British isn't it. "Liberal metropolitan elites", "out of touch with the man on the street", "multimillionaire Bob Geldof" (ok Geldof's a **** to be fair). Still, it seems politicians of all colours are falling over themselves to prove they are 'prolier than thou'.

 

And yet you then have the mindless celebrity worship that seems to go hand in hand with such - particularly when hereditary titles are involved. Evidently being the right kind of rich and powerful is alright.

[davieG]

EU referendum: Vote Leave sets out post-Brexit plans

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36534802

[Phlashman]

Nice to see the multi millionaire bob geldof out there on the Thames ridiculing our fishermen fighting to save what's left of their decimated industry...

As opposed to Farage? A Privately Educated, Former Stockbroker who is on the side of the fisherman who he represents in Europe by only attending 1 of the 43 meetings of the Fisheries Council he's on?

 

Of course I'm not sticking up for Geldof. What's he ever done for anyone else? Nothing*.

 

 

*I presume, let me check wikipedia first..... oh.

[johnny the fox]

As opposed to Farage? A Privately Educated, Former Stockbroker who is on the side of the fisherman who he represents in Europe by only attending 1 of the 43 meetings of the Fisheries Council he's on?

 

Of course I'm not sticking up for Geldof. What's he ever done for anyone else? Nothing*.

 

 

*I presume, let me check wikipedia first..... oh.

You  defend the man worth 100 million.. I will stay on the side of the trawler blokes who risk their lives to make a living.... why the fook we have to import fish while living on a island  baffles me...  as for "Saving the world" he ain't done too bad out of it ....