The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[Alf Bentley]

That Dan Hodges writes in the MoS now. He's terrible. Not only is there no insight, he's boring as well.

 

 

The only thing that I can say in his favour is that it can't be easy having Glenda Jackson as your Mum, particularly when they do re-runs of her romping with Oliver Reed. 

[Guest MattP]

Geldof might be an annoying, egotistical tosser at times. but his background makes him a much better option than Izzard: extensive involvement in development & with international institutions; successful businessman; Irish perspective etc.

I don't know Harris (he's replaced that one-eyed turncoat anti-Lab "Labour" journalist that MattP loves, so he should know). Johnson will be articulate, I'm sure. Low expectations for the rest - predictable lines from Morgan & Lea; embarrassing, ill-informed egotism from Mensch, I'd expect.....she'll probably be much worse than Geldof!

 

I think Geldof is going to be as bad as Izzard, he's probably the only Irishman in the World more annoying than Bono when he gets going about his latest cause, seeing the pictures of him goading and swearing off that boat yesterday looked like he had lost the plot, although that would be totally understandable given his problems.

 

As Webbo says as well, Dan Hodges has been absolutely crap since going to the MoS, for some reason he's gone from slagging off Corbyn in every article in the Torygraph to slagging off the leave campaign now, which I'm sure you'll concur is the last thing your average MoS reader wants to hear.

 

Need I point out, these polls could be a little misleading - I believe the Ipsos pole today shows the split for confirmed positioned, will vote, voters (i.e. It excudes don't knows which are still a significant amount). Other polls have aggregated some of the don't knows based on other data.

I'm sure there are still many don't knows or people on the margins on each side, that a decisive moment could tip the balance. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a 60/40 result... but wouldn't wish to call which way that would be.

 

I'd be astonished if one side could get 60% in this election, I'm fully expecting it to be within 52-48, it seems so tight.

[bovril]

I think Geldof is going to be as bad as Izzard, he's probably the only Irishman in the World more annoying than Bono when he gets going about his latest cause, seeing the pictures of him goading and swearing off that boat yesterday looked like he had lost the plot, although that would be totally understandable given his problems.

 

Eamon Dunphy.

[Alf Bentley]

Here's the most interesting poll yet: http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/kent-backs-brexit-97358/

It was purely carried out in Kent (a county I know well, as I grew up there). Usual provisos apply re. small sample etc.

 

The fact that Leave is ahead 57%-43% isn't interesting or surprising (it's a strongly Eurosceptic county; if anything, I'd have expected a larger margin).

The interesting bit is when you scroll down to look at the data for individual constituencies:

 

"Remain" constituencies: Canterbury, Gravesham, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge, Tunbridge Wells

 

- Canterbury & Gravesham are special cases (university town & part-commuter town with high Asian population, respectively). But the other 3 are wealthy Tory safe seats, with lots of City types. 

 

"Leave" constituencies: Ashford, Chatham, Dartford, Dover, Faversham, Folkestone, Gillingham, Maidstone, Rochester, Sittingbourne, Thanet N, Thanet S,

 

- These are mainly the poorer Kent constituencies (Medway towns & North/East coast, mainly): struggling working-class / lower-middle-class populations, mainly white. No fewer than 7 of these constituencies were Labour seats under Blair/Brown.

 

 

This strongly suggests that if Brexit happens, much of the support for Leave will come from Labour voters....though whether they are still Lab voters or are now switching to UKIP, as at the General Election, is another matter.

 

I'm not sure what this says about Corbyn's low profile during the campaign - something that will be a massive issue if the national voting figures are anything like this.

Many (particularly within his party) will blame him for not presenting the Remain case more vigorously. Others might say that he's avoiding the error Labour made in Scotland - getting too closely associated with the Tory leadership, arguing a case that is unpopular among traditional supporters.

 

Corbyn's response to Osborne's post-Brexit "budget" was interesting: clearly stating that Labour (in an unholy alliance with Tory Eurosceptics) would prevent that budget being passed.....when Alistair Darling had co-presented it!

That certainly doesn't suggest that Cameron & Corbyn are singing off even remotely similar Remain hymn sheets. Maybe he's secretly quite content to see a Leave vote and thinks Labour is avoiding a bear trap by keeping its head down - or that Labour will stand to benefit from a pending Tory civil war, winning an early election and introducing socialist policies in the UK, free of EU restraints? That was always the classic stance of the leftist Campaign Group, of which Corbyn was a member.

If so, I reckon he's wrong and that a revamped UKIP could be the ones to benefit most.

[Alf Bentley]

Another interesting poll here in the FT: https://next.ft.com/content/f44e8a6e-2f2a-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc

 

This poll was carried out only among people in the City of London:

 

84% Remain 5% Leave, with those working in international finance overwhelmingly supporting Remain, the minority mainly being traders operating domestically

 

There's clearly a lot of fear in the City that Brexit would mean that the City lost out to some combination of Paris, Frankfurt & Dublin, post-Brexit.

[Strokes]

Here's the most interesting poll yet: http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/kent-backs-brexit-97358/

It was purely carried out in Kent (a county I know well, as I grew up there). Usual provisos apply re. small sample etc.

 

The fact that Leave is ahead 57%-43% isn't interesting or surprising (it's a strongly Eurosceptic county; if anything, I'd have expected a larger margin).

The interesting bit is when you scroll down to look at the data for individual constituencies:

 

"Remain" constituencies: Canterbury, Gravesham, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge, Tunbridge Wells

 

- Canterbury & Gravesham are special cases (university town & part-commuter town with high Asian population, respectively). But the other 3 are wealthy Tory safe seats, with lots of City types. 

 

"Leave" constituencies: Ashford, Chatham, Dartford, Dover, Faversham, Folkestone, Gillingham, Maidstone, Rochester, Sittingbourne, Thanet N, Thanet S,

 

- These are mainly the poorer Kent constituencies (Medway towns & North/East coast, mainly): struggling working-class / lower-middle-class populations, mainly white. No fewer than 7 of these constituencies were Labour seats under Blair/Brown.

 

 

This strongly suggests that if Brexit happens, much of the support for Leave will come from Labour voters....though whether they are still Lab voters or are now switching to UKIP, as at the General Election, is another matter.

 

I'm not sure what this says about Corbyn's low profile during the campaign - something that will be a massive issue if the national voting figures are anything like this.

Many (particularly within his party) will blame him for not presenting the Remain case more vigorously. Others might say that he's avoiding the error Labour made in Scotland - getting too closely associated with the Tory leadership, arguing a case that is unpopular among traditional supporters.

 

Corbyn's response to Osborne's post-Brexit "budget" was interesting: clearly stating that Labour (in an unholy alliance with Tory Eurosceptics) would prevent that budget being passed.....when Alistair Darling had co-presented it!

That certainly doesn't suggest that Cameron & Corbyn are singing off even remotely similar Remain hymn sheets. Maybe he's secretly quite content to see a Leave vote and thinks Labour is avoiding a bear trap by keeping its head down - or that Labour will stand to benefit from a pending Tory civil war, winning an early election and introducing socialist policies in the UK, free of EU restraints? That was always the classic stance of the leftist Campaign Group, of which Corbyn was a member.

If so, I reckon he's wrong and that a revamped UKIP could be the ones to benefit most.

I think UKIP are going to benefit from votes from both Tory and Labour all over, as both of them are out of touch with and/or betray their voters.

[Stadt]

What happens to UKIP in the event of leaving? I'm presuming they'll continue as a domestic party

[Strokes]

What happens to UKIP in the event of leaving? I'm presuming they'll continue as a domestic party

I'm pretty sure they will just rename the party, I think Matt p said they would call it the Independence Party.

[johnny the fox]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/680484/US-industrialist-backs-Brexit

[Alf Bentley]

What happens to UKIP in the event of leaving? I'm presuming they'll continue as a domestic party

 

 

If they get themselves organised and make the right decisions (from their perspective), I could see them prospering massively in the wake of a Brexit vote.

 

If there's an economic downturn in the short-term (highly likely), that could make the Tories more unpopular, particularly if they take controversial decisions on tax/spend to plug any gap in the public finances. The Tories might implode into civil war, anyway. Meanwhile, Labour under Corbyn have failed to win people over in significant numbers so far - and there's the potential for an implosion and civil war within Labour, too, particularly if the pro-Remain majority blame Corbyn for Brexit.

 

Also, there would be ongoing negotiations over the terms of Brexit and trade deals for several years to come - and I'd expect the EU27 to take a hard line in those negotiations, out of a fear of similar demands from their own populations (and both France & Germany have national elections next year). That could all easily play into the hands of UKIP, by fomenting public resentment and hostility towards the rest of the EU. 

 

There would also be a lot of ongoing discontent about immigration. We'd still be in the EU for at least another 2 years, with "free movement of labour" allowing EU citizens to continue arriving in the UK. Even after 2-3 years, "control of our borders" would take several years to achieve any change noticeable to those opposed to high levels of immigration. Indeed, given that immigrants are essential to many economic sectors, it might not fall all that much even after the UK had "control of its borders". I think that it was IDS who was saying yesterday that he'd expect to see the first noticeable fall in immigration some time after 2020.....that's a long time for some people to wait.

 

The prospects for UKIP post-Brexit look good....though they're quite capable of implosions and stupid decisions of their own, so nothing's guaranteed.

 

Politics is going to be massively in flux if Brexit wins - and only slightly less if Remain wins, I reckon!

[DJ Barry Hammond]

What happens to UKIP in the event of leaving? I'm presuming they'll continue as a domestic party

I believe Farage and Banks already have plans in place to jettison the party and set up a new one - Farage has been reasonably open about this, suggesting he wants a more modern way like some of the newer parties in Italain politics with a greater presence online.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

@@Alf Bentley

I think the New Labour side of the party will be looking to get Chuka in place as leader post the referendum. I always thought his withdrawal from the original contest was suspicious, so I wonder if it's was discussed in some circles to hold him back, knowing the EU referendum would be potentially damaging for any leader.

[leicsmac]

Can any Brexiteers on here give me a convincing argument as to the positive effect of a Brexit on the UK's STEM community?

 

From what I can tell most UK STEMheads are favouring remain, but I was wondering if there were any good arguments science-wise to come out?

[bovril]

Labour MP shot in West Yorkshire.

[Strokes]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36550304

[Steven]

Another interesting poll here in the FT: https://next.ft.com/content/f44e8a6e-2f2a-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc

 

This poll was carried out only among people in the City of London:

 

84% Remain 5% Leave, with those working in international finance overwhelmingly supporting Remain, the minority mainly being traders operating domestically

 

There's clearly a lot of fear in the City that Brexit would mean that the City lost out to some combination of Paris, Frankfurt & Dublin, post-Brexit.

 

Tell me about it.

[act smiley]

Can any Brexiteers on here give me a convincing argument as to the positive effect of a Brexit on the UK's STEM community?

From what I can tell most UK STEMheads are favouring remain, but I was wondering if there were any good arguments science-wise to come out?

Maybe not being able to hire from the eu will make companies not be so lazy about training staff... Ooh wait, no. They'll just use the the same rubbish they come out with to import loads of staff from India at the moment.

[Guest]

The best thing about a Brexit will be the shakeup in British politics.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Might be an idea to leave this thread until tomorrow - given the recent circumstances.

[Strokes]

Maybe not being able to hire from the eu will make companies not be so lazy about training staff... Ooh wait, no. They'll just use the the same rubbish they come out with to import loads of staff from India at the moment.

We do need to do something to encourage/force companies to properly invest in their staff and offer apprentices. In or out this is a huge weight on our nation, we have far too many people without any skill sets, it's absolutely shameful.

Might be an idea to leave this thread until tomorrow - given the recent circumstances.

Fair point.

[davieG]

We do need to do something to encourage/force companies to properly invest in their staff and offer apprentices. In or out this is a huge weight on our nation, we have far too many people without any skill sets, it's absolutely shameful.

Fair point.

 

 

Before I retired I was involved in the recruitment and training of engineering apprentices amongst other things and it was really hard work getting companies involved, the biggest excuse was they could leave when the training  was complete  and yet they were quite happy to recruit skilled people trained by other companies.

 

There's  really no excuse for them not especially large organisations. I can understand I man bands not  getting involved as it's  much harder for them to provide the on the job part.

 

It's  pretty much universal in hard times that the first budget to be cut is the training budget which inevitably means they are ill prepared to act quickly when things improve particularly in longer term training roles.

 

Governments should provide much greater financial incentives for the training in vital industries everything is so short term.

 

So often funding from government is just for a few years and is generally a complete waste but then in most cases it's a 'political' bribe.

 

Sorry about the diversion but it's  a pet hate of mine.

[Foxxed]

Maybe if we can't get things as cheap, we can start making/manufacturing some of these things and selling them to ourselves. Some things will go up in price but where they do, there could be an opportunity here.

 

You want us to make stuff, and then sell it to ourselves?

 

And the price of UK labour is higher than in China, therefore our goods will be more expensive, and people won't buy them, since they want to save money for their mortgages etc.

 

And if we limit good from China, then China will limit trade with us, and they will win: they are bigger.

 

This doesn't sound like the best plan tbh.

 

percentage of world trade..http://order-order.com/2014/09/25/eus-share-of-world-trade-is-shrinking-commonwealth-grows-as-eu-shrinks/

 

Excellent unbiased source there!

 

If a country starts doing a lot better than the rest--HI CHINA--then everyone's else will decline.

 

So not the man on the street then and you are still wondering why he isn't convinced.

 

Hold on, so you think science, higher education and research don't help the man of the street, who may well be employed by the aerospace manufactoring sector, for example, or people who employ people because they have higher education?

 

 

[Strokes]

You want us to make stuff, and then sell it to ourselves?

And the price of UK labour is higher than in China, therefore our goods will be more expensive, and people won't buy them, since they want to save money for their mortgages etc.

And if we limit good from China, then China will limit trade with us, and they will win: they are bigger.

This doesn't sound like the best plan

Are we leaving a union with China then? We can strike our own deal with them

[Foxxed]

If we Brexit, it will interesting. The biggest political winners will be a man who can recite Hitler youth songs. And a man who compared one of our biggest trading partners to Nazis. For British diplomacy, this may be less than favourable.

 

Also, it will likely trigger another Scottish referendum. Mainly because the Scots put the European Declaration of Human Rights in their constitution. And in most polls, they are consistently more pro-European than the English. Whether this will tip them over the edge is another question.

[Foxxed]

Are we leaving a union with China then? We can strike our own deal with them

 

Yeah--as I mentioned--striking a deal with China when we are OUTSIDE a market that wields power over them would not lead to a more favorable deal to us.