Les-TA-Jon Posted 26 January 2016 Share Posted 26 January 2016 From the "How many points will it take" thread - I've been doing some analysis. I'll keep these tables updated and post them everytime we play a match. I've looked at every season that there's been 3 points for a win and 20 teams in the top division. That's 23 seasons - from 88/89-90/91 and then from 95/96-14/15. The tables below shows the low, lower, average, upper and high points totals in that time frame for teams finishing 1st and 4th (The numbers in the top row). Then we've got how many points are needed for us to achieve each points total. The second table shows basically the same thing, but is shown through the amount of 'droppable points' we have. So for example to finish on 68 points (the 23 year average for 4th place) we can drop 24 points in the next 15 games. Keep in mind that we've dropped 22 points in the 23 games so far Also as an added bonus - here's all the games yet to be played in all competitions - with a min and max value for each club, depending on how they progress in each competition. So we've got 15. Everyone else has between 18 and 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristianity77 Posted 26 January 2016 Share Posted 26 January 2016 Plus, those FA cup games, don't include any possible replays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoxFossil Posted 26 January 2016 Share Posted 26 January 2016 Plus teams around us have to play each other and tricky local derbys. Arsenal still to play Spurs, West Ham,plus Man City.Man City to play Man Utd, Spurs, Liverpool, Arsenal. So they can't all get maximimum points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haydos Posted 26 January 2016 Share Posted 26 January 2016 1 game at a time. The next few games could be pretty important. We could lose them all but win the rest, we could win the next 3 and lose the rest. Way too open at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les-TA-Jon Posted 3 February 2016 Author Share Posted 3 February 2016 Updated after last night: So we've dropped 22 points in 24 games and could afford to drop 12 in 14 to finish on 80 pts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raw Dykes Posted 3 February 2016 Share Posted 3 February 2016 Very interesting. What's clear from this is that we almost certainly won't need 85 points to win it. Probably won't even need 80 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripeyfox Posted 3 February 2016 Share Posted 3 February 2016 Updated after last night: So we've dropped 22 points in 24 games and could afford to drop 12 in 14 to finish on 80 pts Are your "max" figures correct? We have 50 points on the board with 14 to play which is potentially 14 x 3 = 42 points which means the maximum number of points we can get is 92? Or am I missing something?Edit: sorry, you are right. I was looking at the wrong max column! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCFCABC Posted 8 February 2016 Share Posted 8 February 2016 Bump Jon can you update following the weekends results? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les-TA-Jon Posted 8 February 2016 Author Share Posted 8 February 2016 Update So we've dropped 22 points in 25 matches. We can afford to drop 17 points in the remaining 13 matches, to finish on 75 points. 18 Dropped points looks like: W6 D3 L4 So obviously that tells us we can have indifferent form between now and the end of the season and finish on 75 points. But obviously, then it'd come down to whether any other teams have better form. I think as useful as this analysis is it doesn't really tell us that much. We're ahead, and so statistically we're in the best position - therefore measures like 'points needed' and 'droppable points' will make us look even better. The real test now, is the mental side of things - can we handle the pressure, particularly since we're now everyone's 2nd team and most people's favourites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKCJ Posted 8 February 2016 Share Posted 8 February 2016 It's irrelevant because we ain't gonna be dropping points bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCFCABC Posted 8 February 2016 Share Posted 8 February 2016 Thanks Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sindidragon Posted 8 February 2016 Share Posted 8 February 2016 Can't see us isinglass to anyone.....we are the real deal ....Champions Can't see us losing...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les-TA-Jon Posted 16 February 2016 Author Share Posted 16 February 2016 Update - after Arsenal match It's increasingly looking like the points total required for topspot is going to be between 75-80 points. I can't see any team being good enough to drop only 3-9 points. The form required to get to 80 points would be something like: LCFC: W8 D3 L1 Arsenal/Spurs: W9 D2 L1 Can anyone see any of those 3 teams having form as good as that? Maybe us, with all the rest and fewest amounts of games. So I think going forward I'll just break it down to all 75,76,77,78,79,80 points required for stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueBlueFox Posted 16 February 2016 Share Posted 16 February 2016 If we achieve as many points against the teams we have left to play, as we did against them first time round we'll get 85 points. If any of the other clubs below us better that then well done them. Our run in is far easier than Arsenal & Tottenham. Arsenal have easy games at home but a lot of tough away games. Tottenham have tough games home & away - they only have 3 games you would definitely say they'd win. Man City may still be our main competitor. Hopefully, I'm right and there will not be a downturn in form or run of bad injuries (touch wood) but Foxes are still my favourites to comfortably win the league & I'm pessimistic by nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les-TA-Jon Posted 16 February 2016 Author Share Posted 16 February 2016 If we achieve as many points against the teams we have left to play, as we did against them first time round we'll get 85 points. If any of the other clubs below us better that then well done them. Our run in is far easier than Arsenal & Tottenham. Arsenal have easy games at home but a lot of tough away games. Tottenham have tough games home & away - they only have 3 games you would definitely say they'd win. Man City may still be our main competitor. Hopefully, I'm right and there will not be a downturn in form or run of bad injuries (touch wood) but Foxes are still my favourites to comfortably win the league & I'm pessimistic by nature.The only problem with the prediction of 85 points is, our max is 89. Do you seriously think we are only going to drop 4 points in 12 games? W10 D2 L0 ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueBlueFox Posted 18 February 2016 Share Posted 18 February 2016 No, but like everyone else I didn't dream of us being top after 26 games. If we play as we have been and fingers crossed have no bad luck I think it is possible. We have some tough games (some may say they're all tough) but provided we maintain the work rate and don't dip in form in my opinion there is a reasonable chance we could go on a really good run of results. Maybe, if we do, the only fly in the ointment will be the last match. If as I think, we have won the league with games to spare then Chelsea will probably beat us. Either way I wouldn't want to be going to Chelsea needing a result. The next two games are important - must win games at home to Norwich & West Brom - I think the other teams below us are as close as they're going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les-TA-Jon Posted 29 February 2016 Author Share Posted 29 February 2016 UPDATE after Norwich game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shen Posted 29 February 2016 Share Posted 29 February 2016 UPDATE after Norwich game Seeing as Man Utd are the closest contenders for 4th place and can achieve a maximum of 77 points, it makes the final column rather academical, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramboacdc Posted 29 February 2016 Share Posted 29 February 2016 UPDATE after Norwich game surely man city is still max 81 too? they have a game in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentFox Posted 29 February 2016 Share Posted 29 February 2016 My brain hurts. What's for breakfast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raw Dykes Posted 29 February 2016 Share Posted 29 February 2016 surely man city is still max 81 too? they have a game in hand. That column is the max points the club could have been on at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoxFossil Posted 29 February 2016 Share Posted 29 February 2016 Just love this post. Proper hard sums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les-TA-Jon Posted 3 March 2016 Author Share Posted 3 March 2016 UPDATE - after Tues and Weds night: I got rid of the stuff about 4th place, since that seems so nailed on. So we can see that it's INCREDIBLY likely that 78 pts will be the absolute maximum required to win the league - since Man City, Arsenal and Spurs can only afford to drop 2, 3 and 6 points respectively if they need that total. We can get to 78 if we drop 9 points between now and the end of the season. 9 points dropped looks something like: W7 D0 L3 W6 D2 L2 (10 dropped) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonmoreStef Posted 3 March 2016 Share Posted 3 March 2016 Win all our home games and we nearly win it for me given the inconsistency of the teams chasing. Pick up a couple of points away as well and I'm convinced we win it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les-TA-Jon Posted 3 March 2016 Author Share Posted 3 March 2016 Win all our home games and we nearly win it for me given the inconsistency of the teams chasing. Pick up a couple of points away as well and I'm convinced we win it. Looks good - 15 points - pick up 3 on the road and we'll finish on 75. W5 D3 L2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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