The road to a 1st Place or 4th Place finish

[truebluethroughandthrough]

Ranking before last week:

Leicester 71

Tottenham 69

Arsenal 67

And Chelsea will very likely field their 3rd team only to spite spurs

Ive got us needing a point against Everton for the title! 6 points ahead of arsenal but with a 2goal advantage on goal difference!

The amount of time ive spent this season on predictions, I'm hoping I've gained the experience of this being pretty much nailed on.

Get your bets on

[fuchsntf]

Its all interesting I am sure ,with all these permatations.

Yes I look at the top 5 clubs and fixtures, but since xmas.

I dream but dont chase the points or comparisons.

I have taken Claudios path (hopefully also the squads major mentality).

One game at a time, because I dont support we have the easier run in.

If fans have forgot, all fixtures are against PL opposition, and until the very end

all will be playing for something..ie bonuses for league postion, that safe 16th slot.

Top 6, Top 12, Top 4.

If the top squad teams are now seeing/experiencing , there is a no fear factor

from the also rans, hence the Foxes success, but dont forget, we who have caused

the mayhem, still have to go through that same fixtures of 'fearless' teams.

No probs with these type of threads, good banter for forum, but when calculating,

dont take thoughts and solutions from the past.We have a different landscape,

playing out to different computations/no obvious permatations every week.

I am also enjoying the side show, where pundits, experts, commentators, still

trying to hold on to some form of their own perceived normality, then being

kicked of their stools, after every game day. Sweet so sweet.

They havent yet picked up on Claudios lack of pressure, with his great pitch..

Obligation vs Dreams.

He wants the title, no mistake but nobody can force pressure into him or his team.

They as a unit, and he as the manager are already the success of the season, everyone else

are still chasing under stress those individual proofs..

[J.Lisemore]

Can you imagine if Man Utd actually topped it? After all the grief Van Gaal has had over his average players and awful football.

[leicesterseddon]

Think we'll need 6 wins, possibly 7. Would be surprised if we need 8 given how the rest of the season has panned out. 

 

Imagine how great it would be to only need 1 win from our final 3 games or something - although I've accepted that's unlikely to happen! 

[StriderHiryu]

Knowing Leicester if we do win the title, we will drop easy points to some of the "easier" looking matches in our schedule and have to win against an in-form Chelsea on the final day, and yet somehow we'll do it.

 

I'm not sure my body could take that tension so I really hope we go on a winning streak whilst others lose so it's a nice stroll, but I just don't think it's the Leicester City way!

[FantasticMrFox&Son]

Thing is you can't rely on "form" or reputations, otherwise the table would look a hell of a lot different.

There would be no need to play the matches, a bit like the old days when the pools panel predicted the outcome when winter postponements were rife

 

Right now I think it's as much about hunger and desire as well as ability and teamwork.

Throw the guides out the window, it's about who turns up at kick-off, us and them.

[nnfox]

One thing that I will say is that I think Claudio has got it spot on with the "one game at a time" mentality.  No real talk of the title, just focusing on the performance in the next match.  It really did us a favour with the WBA game.  There was an element of disappointment with the result amongst some fans, but he took all the pressure away by saying that the performance was fantastic and sometimes you have games where the ball won't go in. 

 

Perform well, give 100% like all the players have all season and the results will take care of themselves.  If we do that and fall short I can't complain.

 

With that said, I would happily give my left gonad to play badly and win the next 10.

[weller54]

One thing that I will say is that I think Claudio has got it spot on with the "one game at a time" mentality. No real talk of the title, just focusing on the performance in the next match. It really did us a favour with the WBA game. There was an element of disappointment with the result amongst some fans, but he took all the pressure away by saying that the performance was fantastic and sometimes you have games where the ball won't go in.

Perform well, give 100% like all the players have all season and the results will take care of themselves. If we do that and fall short I can't complain.

With that said, I would happily give my left gonad to play badly and win the next 10.

You're talking balls mate!

[SystonFox]

Can you imagine if Man Utd actually topped it? After all the grief Van Gaal has had over his average players and awful football.

WHY ON EARTH DO PEOPLE KEEP MENTIONING MAN UNITED FOR THE TITLE

I'll be surprised if they get top four.

[biggs]

For me it'll continue to be the next game only and the next game for our closest rivals. Not really much point in looking ahead any further as no one predicts it right from week to week......just saying!!!....

[Vardinio'sCat]

Can you imagine if Man Utd actually topped it? After all the grief Van Gaal has had over his average players and awful football.

 

No

[Footballwipe]

WHY ON EARTH DO PEOPLE KEEP MENTIONING MAN UNITED FOR THE TITLE

I'll be surprised if they get top four.

 

I noticed this morning in SSN's "title permutations" feature that Van Gaal's picture was alongside CR, AW, MP and Pellegrini, so Sky seem to think they're back in it!

 

On this thread it has got to the point now where I'll be disappointed if we don't do it only on the assumption that we'll never be in this position ever, ever again. However, UCL is the utmost priority because that's an adventure we can have without finishing first. Spurs may have a horrible few games but I still class them as almost machine-like. I'm fully expecting them to dismantle Arsenal tomorrow and they could win the four games after that.

 

Night's like Wednesday are unlikely to happen again but I've never had more faith in a Leicester team to be professional and get the job done.

[FantasticMrFox&Son]

I think SKY are desperate for United to get in to the top 4 and get a Champions League place.

 

I'm sure they take the commercial view that (perm any 4 from 6) United, City, Chelsea, Arsenal Spurs and Liverpool "sell" better than Leicester, West Ham and Southampton.

That's why the European super league is gaining momentum, little to do with football and fans, everything to do with revenue opportunities.

 

So come on Foxes, Hammers and Saints (in that order), keep playing the football you are capable of and upset the form book.

Never mind the European Championships in England, THIS IS FOOTBALL COMING HOME.

[Steven]

I think SKY are desperate for United to get in to the top 4 and get a Champions League place.

 

I'm sure they take the commercial view that (perm any 4 from 6) United, City, Chelsea, Arsenal Spurs and Liverpool "sell" better than Leicester, West Ham and Southampton.

That's why the European super league is gaining momentum, little to do with football and fans, everything to do with revenue opportunities.

 

So come on Foxes, Hammers and Saints (in that order), keep playing the football you are capable of and upset the form book.

Never mind the European Championships in England, THIS IS FOOTBALL COMING HOME.

 

BT own the rights to CL football. 

[FantasticMrFox&Son]

My apologies for linking Sky and the current Champions League contract.

 

My point was that the broadcasters are ONLY interested in selling the product and maximising their revenues.

As such they don't care for the so-called little clubs gate-crashing the party.

 

They forget all teams have the same poor roots, before broadcasting began.

[fuchsntf]

I noticed this morning in SSN's "title permutations" feature that Van Gaal's picture was alongside CR, AW, MP and Pellegrini, so Sky seem to think they're back in it!.

 

Night's like Wednesday are unlikely to happen again but I've never had more faith in a Leicester team to be professional and get the job done.

Manu, Wham are in the run for a top 4 place, plus throwing in Chelsea because of present form, is prudent

journalism.No problems there.

I reckon days like last tuesday and Wednesday, will more likely to happen, the twisty turns

and winding roads of this jouney are far from over.

Claudios pre mentioned coming off the turn into the last straight, is imo 5 games away.

Man.city could make a last minute surge, but with the form of the front 3

I believe that Pelligrini, will be lucky to hold onto 4th, let alone recovering 10pts.

[Proolo2]

So, let's see how next fixtures look now for us, Spurs and Arsenal.

 

I divided the current PL table in 4 parts:

 

• Tier I: 51-60 points, title contenders (3 clubs)
• Tier II: 41-50 points, CL/Europa contenders (6 clubs)
• Tier III: 31-40 points, no risk of relegation - very little chance of european football (7 clubs)
• Tier IV: 30 points and below, relegation battle (4 clubs)

 

Let's see how many of those will Leicester, Tottenham and Arsenal meet in the next 9 fixtures:

 

 

         I  II  III  IV
-----------------------
LCFC     0   3    4   2
Spurs    0   4    3   2
Arsenal  0   2    4   3

 

 

If teams were (in a conservative estimate) to gain 1 point on average from Tier II opponents, 2 points from Tier III and 3 points from Tier IV, we'd have:

 

 

LCFC    = 1*3 + 2*4 + 3*2 = 17

Spurs   = 1*4 + 2*3 + 3*2 = 16

Arsenal = 1*2 + 2*4 + 3*3 = 19

 

 

So on paper it looks like Spurs have the toughest remaining fixture and Arsenal the easiest, which makes the result of the NL derby even sweeter. COYF!

 

 

 

[Aus Fox]

So, let's see how next fixtures look now for us, Spurs and Arsenal.

 

I divided the current PL table in 4 parts:

 

• Tier I: 51-60 points, title contenders (3 clubs)
• Tier II: 41-50 points, CL/Europa contenders (6 clubs)
• Tier III: 31-40 points, no risk of relegation - very little chance of european football (7 clubs)
• Tier IV: 30 points and below, relegation battle (4 clubs)

 

Let's see how many of those will Leicester, Tottenham and Arsenal meet in the next 9 fixtures:

 

 

         I  II  III  IV

-----------------------

LCFC     0   3    4   2

Spurs    0   4    3   2

Arsenal  0   2    4   3

 

 

If teams were (in a conservative estimate) to gain 1 point on average from Tier II opponents, 2 points from Tier III and 3 points from Tier IV, we'd have:

 

 

LCFC    = 1*3 + 2*4 + 3*2 = 17

Spurs   = 1*4 + 2*3 + 3*2 = 16

Arsenal = 1*2 + 2*4 + 3*3 = 19

 

 

So on paper it looks like Spurs have the toughest remaining fixture and Arsenal the easiest, which makes the result of the NL derby even sweeter. COYF!

Looks good but I feel Man City should still be viewed as contenders, if they win their game in hand they are above Arsenal after all.

[Les-TA-Jon]

UPDATE after Watford,

 

 

I'm inclined to remove Man Utd, but whatever, I'll leave them on...for now.

 

So it's looking nailed on that 78 is the absolute maximum that'll be required to win the league, as we can see that Arsenal, Man City and Spurs can only drop 1, 2, and 4 points respectively, and get that many points. (see @@Benguin and @@Jordan - that's what I mean...)

 

Meaning that Arsenal have to win all their remaining games; Man City have to go W8 D1 L0, and Spurs would have to go W7 D2 L0. 

 

So we're almost certainly looking at 75-77 points being enough. Even looking at the other points totals doesn't look good for Arsenal. Draw just two games and they can only get a max of 75. Similarly if Man City draw 1 and lose 1 between now and the end of the season, they can only finish on 75 too. 

 

So itt's almost guaranteed to be us or Spurs then I suppose...? 

 

And here's the Run-In:

 

 

Spurs play twice between now and our next game - Dortmund and Villa. 

 

So we could be down to 'only' a 2pt lead again by the time we play. Which puts the pressure on us, depending on their result of course - but Villa are fodder...

 

But conversely we play again on the 19th and they play again on the 20th. So the mind games could get really interesting. 

 

In fact LCFC and Spurs play on the same day in only 3 of the remaining 9 leagues matches...

 

 

 

Clearly you can make a case either way as to whether it's better to be playing first or second, and ultimately we've both got 9 games left so, so what?

 

But I think most will say it's better to have points on the board than games in hand. 

 

Us playing first 4 times out of 9 and Spurs only playing first 2 times, does give us a platform at least - each time we get a result it could put more pressure on Spurs - conversely of course, each time we drop points - they get the chance to react...

[FoxFossil]

Excellent stuff. Spurs have a few banana skin fixtures,Liverpool, Man utd, Stoke and West Brom all ones where points can be easily dropped.So Spurs could go to Chelsea needing to win .....Tasty!

[LCFC FOX]

Let's not forget Southampton, Swansea, West Ham and Everton are all tough home games and six points will be hard to get from them 4. We seem to always do shite at selhurst, Sunderland away will be tough as they're fighting relegation and United and Chelsea away well a point from both of them would be good. I think we have the hardest run in imo

[Raw Dykes]

And here's the Run-In:

 

 

Spurs play twice between now and our next game - Dortmund and Villa. 

 

So we could be down to 'only' a 2pt lead again by the time we play. Which puts the pressure on us, depending on their result of course - but Villa are fodder...

 

But conversely we play again on the 19th and they play again on the 20th. So the mind games could get really interesting. 

 

In fact LCFC and Spurs play on the same day in only 3 of the remaining 9 leagues matches...

 

 

 

Clearly you can make a case either way as to whether it's better to be playing first or second, and ultimately we've both got 9 games left so, so what?

 

But I think most will say it's better to have points on the board than games in hand. 

 

Us playing first 4 times out of 9 and Spurs only playing first 2 times, does give us a platform at least - each time we get a result it could put more pressure on Spurs - conversely of course, each time we drop points - they get the chance to react...

 

Just a nitpick - while we do both play on the 10th (fixture 4 on your table), our k.o. is 13:30, and Spurs' is at 16:00, so that's another where we play first.

 

Edit: I think it's probably best to play first. There's likely to be less pressure/chance of complacency when you don't know what your opponents are getting that week. If your opponents just played and won, the pressure to win is increased, and you know you can only match them and not be any better off than you were beforehand.

[Les-TA-Jon]

Just a nitpick - while we do both play on the 10th (fixture 4 on your table), our k.o. is 13:30, and Spurs' is at 16:00, so that's another where we play first.

Edit: I think it's probably best to play first. There's likely to be less pressure/chance of complacency when you don't know what your opponents are getting that week. If your opponents just played and won, the pressure to win is increased, and you know you can only match them and not be any better off than you were beforehand.

Ok. Even better. And I totally agree about playing first.

[HighPeakFox]

Did I misread it, or are the potential max points totals not all correct?

[Raw Dykes]

Did I misread it, or are the potential max points totals not all correct?

 

The "Current Max" column is the max points the club could have been on at this point, and the "Re Max" column is the max points the club can get at the end of the season.