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Les-TA-Jon

The road to a 1st Place or 4th Place finish

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I can see 76 being enough, each team has around 4/5 difficult games left, with unusual results along the way too. United, City, Arsenal and Spurs to drop 1, 4, 5 and 8 points respectively isn't out of the question. Pointless predicting but I can't help myself!  

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Remaining Games 

 

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Run in

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spurs got to go to anfield, play a resurgent united and the gunners. 

arsenal got to go to man city looks like the easier run in. if it comes down to the final game arsenal are nailed on. 

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spurs got to go to anfield, play a resurgent united and the gunners.

arsenal got to go to man city looks like the easier run in. if it comes down to the final game arsenal are nailed on.

like they were nailed on to make ground on everyone last night with their easy home game?

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Comparing last season's league table after 28 games with the final standings shows that only Chelsea managed more than 21 points out of the last 30. Chelsea managed 26 points, but frankly, no team this year are as good as they were last year. I don't think Spurs or Arsenal are capable of getting more than 21 points out of their remaining games, which means 76 points should be enough to win.
That's another 19 points or 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses. Sounds reasonable!

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To be honest I'd take 3rd now, don't like how tight it is getting at the top, man city will only be 7 away if they win there game in hand and Utd are 10 points off us, we can't afford to drop that many points and I'd be gutted if we don't make champs league

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To be fair - its getting to that time of year where it all depends what teams have to play for. Unusually this year - more do than most at the top of the league - but potentially less involved at the bottom. 

 

That makes games against the bottom 4 harder (in my eyes) than those in midtable like everton and stoke that are in no mans land. 

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spurs got to go to anfield, play a resurgent united and the gunners. 

arsenal got to go to man city looks like the easier run in. if it comes down to the final game arsenal are nailed on. 

Isn't it quite a common thing in the pl that teams with certain relegation and nothing to play for usually beat teams with everything to play for?

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One thing is for sure, everyone in the top 4 (or 5 or 6) will drop points between now and the end of the season, including us.  There is still lots of football to play and no single result will take us out of it or hand it to us.  It is maybe different when we are down to 5 games remaining.

 

If any team do go on to win all of their remaining fixtures then they will deserve to win it and fair ply to them.

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Brilliant post this, still interested in how many points we need for CL ?? (plea to bring back 4th place part of table)

Bit worried about West Ham and even Chelsea sneeking back into the picture. Dream scenario, 74 points before we go to Man U, then thrash them as Champions!

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There's still plenty of time for things to change, but I'm feeling pretty good about our chances of finishing the season strongly as it stands, for a number of reasons, including:

 

a) Mainly our performance Tuesday night - I thought we were close to our best after a poor showing against Norwich. If we carry on like that, we won't drop many more points. Was a bit concerned, but now I think the poor performance on Saturday was probably down to the 2 week break.

 

b) An incredible set of results last night. This will be great for morale after battering WBA and only getting a point. I thought maybe one of the rest of the top 4 might drop 2 points. Still can't believe they all lost. Arsenal (currently don't look like they have any more bottle than usual) and Man City (instability due to manager situation?) are both in poor form now. Spurs played badly when it mattered most. Did the pressure get to them? Are they showing signs of fatigue?

 

c) Pressure.

We've been 1st place for a long time, so I think that shows we haven't been handling it badly so far.

Everyone expected us to be relegated, so there's far less pressure on us in that regard than Arsenal and Man City, who expected to challenge since day 1.

Nearly the whole squad were under a lot more pressure this time last year, and dealt with it fantastically.

We walked a league title two years ago. Granted, not this division, but the experience gained then could well prove to be priceless now.

 

I don't expect us to win the league, but I do think we'll put in more good performances and get some good results before the end of the season. If we don't win, I reckon it will be down to another club going on a great run, rather than us messing it up.

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Make no mistake that being top for so long will help us, if Spurs get their noses in front they could shit it and the same with Arsenal who seem destined to self sabotage. The two Manchester clubs cannot be written off but I still think we are in fine fettle.

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Thanks for the side-to-side fixture table @@Les-TA-Jon.
 
So if we are to divide the table in 4 parts ( I for teams in position 1-5, II for teams in position 6-10, III for teams in  position 11-15, IV for teams in position 16-20), this is what next fixtures look like for top 3 teams.
 

         I  II  III  IV
-----------------------
LCFC     1   3    3   3
Spurs    2   4    2   2
Arsenal  2   1    4   3

 

A prudent and naive forecats (0 points vs. Class I teams, 1 point vs. Class II teams, 2 points vs. Class III teas, 3 points vs. Class IV teams) gives us:

 

LCFC = 1*0 + 3*1 + 3*2 + 3*3 = 18

Spur = 2*0 + 4*1 + 2*2 + 2*3 = 14

Arse = 2*0 + 1*1 + 4*2 + 3*3 = 18

 

Highlighting how Spurs have a slightly harder path than LCFC or Arsenal.

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Brilliant post this, still interested in how many points we need for CL ?? (plea to bring back 4th place part of table)

Bit worried about West Ham and even Chelsea sneeking back into the picture. Dream scenario, 74 points before we go to Man U, then thrash them as Champions!

 

So the low, lower, average, higher and high requirements for 4th place are 60-64-68-73-79

 

It's looking likely that around 76-78 will win the league. So that almost certainly rules out 73- or 79 points being required for 4th place. 

Therefore we probably only need 3-8 more points to 'guarantee' 4th place

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To avoid getting ahead of myself I'm looking at the remaining games in blocks of three; first 3 block ends at Watford. A win there would give us 7 points from three games and 60 points in the bag.

Next two blocks of three both have 2 home games and 1 away. i.e. 4 home and 2 away.

4 home wins and 2 away draws are not impossible from these games, giving us 74 points when we go to Man Utd. Might already be Champions!

So Watford game is really, really important to give us the platform for the following 4 home games out of next 6 games.

COYBs

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