The road to a 1st Place or 4th Place finish

[Samwise]

Thanks for the update, it's really appreciated. This is the first thread I look for each week.

[Carl the Llama]

That's brilliant.  We've dropped on average 0.84pts per game so far and to secure the title we're allowed to drop them at an average of 1pt per game from here.

[Nalis]

Nice work Jon!

Looked at Arsenal's games too and theirs are as follows:

West Ham (A) - Play before Leicester

Crystal Palace (H) - Play AFTER Leicester

West Brom (H) - N/A - Game in Hand

Sunderland (A) - Play before Leicester

Norwich (H) - Play before Leicester

Man City (A) - Same but subject to change

Aston Villa (H) -Same as Leicester

For me, they are almost defintely out of it if they drop points against West Ham (reckon that will be a draw) as they'd realistically have to win the rest of their games.

[AKCJ]

What is the bet that we win the league while not playing again.

Would be ****ing typical.

[Les-TA-Jon]

Also just to revisit Europe and the top 4...

Just had a quick look at the maximum points that the 'bottom 16' can achieve and it is 74. So 6 points guarantees CL and 12 points guarantees the title.

Sorted!

[HighPeakFox]

What is the bet that we win the league while not playing again.

Would be ****ing typical.

Can think of worse outcomes.....

[Papasmurf]

Come on lad, crack on.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Come on lad, crack on.

Seconded

[FoxFossil]

has Les-TA-Jon been abducted by aliens?

[Frankston fox]

Best thread on here getting anxious

[FoxFossil]

If the update doesnt arrive soon, I'm going to have to do some bloody gardening..and thats just not right. Save me Jon.

[zealot]

I hope Les-TA-Jon is okay? I seem to go through a cycle after every game at the moment... 

 

Namely:

Stage 1: We win.
Stage 2: Euphoria (for the rest of the day).
Stage 3: Doom and gloom feelings that we're gonna throw it all away (usually for the whole day or so after).
Stage 4: Devour Les-TA-Jon's update thread.
Stage 5: Confidence and euphoric feelings restored.

[Les-TA-Jon]

Hahaha - sorry guys was really busy yesterday afternoon and today - here it is:

 

UPDATE after Sunderland

 

 

​So obviously as we all know by now - we are but 9 points away from the title, regardless of any other results. With 15 points to play for, that's 3 wins, or 2 wins and 3 draws. But of course the 9 points needed can only go down. Spurs really can't afford to drop much at all, assuming we don't come unstuck ourselves. 

 

We can drop 6 points in the next 5 games and still get the 9 points required - a rate of 1.2 points dropped per game - when our average so far this season is 0.81 (27 points dropped in 33 games). 

 

We can look at tables and stats all we want, but what is likely to occur in the next few matches? It's very conceivable that both teams will drop a few points. With our cushion, that's where it get's worse for Spurs. For instance, if we get just 4 more points, and spurs drop 4 points it's over. Ultimately there's very little margin for error for Spurs. 

 

But this discussion is assuming that we will continue to slug it out as we have recently and find a way to win. Can we really just keep plodding on? Who knows. But I think things could get very tight, if we were to lose against a very good West Ham, with Carroll and Payet in great form, and Spurs take the initiative with a win at Stoke. 

 

 

All of a sudden we could have 'only' a 4 point gap. And sure that's technically still a 'two-result' cushion with 4 games to go, but the squad could become self-aware and feel like they've got something to lose. 

 

Of course we could win our next two, Spurs win and draw theirs and we'd be on 78 points, the same as Spurs' total potential max. 

[jim5000]

That's a lot of Excel to say it's brown trousers time!!!!

 

Good work keeping this up since January though, who really thought you would be posting these stats now...

[Samwise]

Thanks for the update!

 

For instance, if we get just 4 more points, and spurs drop 4 points it's over. Ultimately there's very little margin for error for Spurs.

 

Spurs would be top on goal difference in this scenario, no - both teams on 76 points?  Still, not bad to think we'd only need five points.

 

Not sure Spurs will drop four points the way they've been playing though.

[SpinneyHillRanger]

if judging by the simple rule that 'no team can always play their best game'.... then spurs are more likely to drop points than us.

 

we have been winning while playing good enough to win, while spurs have been playing closer to their full potenrtial. just based on the law that you are always likely to have bad games.... hgey are due some bad performances.... and probably a few injuries as well..

[Nalis]

Good work Jon.

To add, Spurs also play their second last game after we do. That would be the fifth game in a row thats happened.

[zealot]

UPDATE after Sunderland [...]  With our cushion, that's where it get's worse for Spurs. For instance, if we get just 4 more points, and spurs drop 4 points it's over. Ultimately there's very little margin for error for Spurs. 

 

So (in our current very good form) we can win just two of our remaining five games and draw three of them and still win the title.

 

I feel better. Even if we draw four and win one we still end on 79 (which could be enough).

 

Thanks Jon!

[FoxFossil]

Thanks Jon, top post.

Time to start deletting those teams who can't catch us now - bye bye Manure.

[Grey Fox]

Lets look at it from a Spurs point of view:

 

If Spurs win all remaining games (take 15 more points), meaning that including the United win they had won 6 in a row (very hard to do).  Even if they do all of that, they need us to not win a minimum of 3 out of 5 games, including at least 1 loss.

 

We are looking at them as if they are invincible and we are bottlers.  If we needed them to drop so many points and we needed to win all 5 of our games, how many of you would seriously think we could win it?

 

Now lets says spurs just drop 2 points (the minimum they can drop if they drop any).  They would then need us to either lose 3 games, lose 2 and draw 2, lose 1 and draw 3, or draw all 5.  There are probably other permutations but you get the point.  If they drop any more points I just can't see them winning it.

 

It's not over yet, but if we beat West Ham, I don't then see any way we could be stopped, apart from a complete and utter record breaking catastrophe.  No matter what they do.

[lcfcfoz]

We beat west ham, they lose at stoke, we can win it then by beating swansea

[Oxfordfox83]

Lets look at it from a Spurs point of view:

If Spurs win all remaining games (take 15 more points), meaning that including the United win they had won 6 in a row (very hard to do). Even if they do all of that, they need us to not win a minimum of 3 out of 5 games, including at least 1 loss.

We are looking at them as if they are invincible and we are bottlers. If we needed them to drop so many points and we needed to win all 5 of our games, how many of you would seriously think we could win it?

Now lets says spurs just drop 2 points (the minimum they can drop if they drop any). They would then need us to either lose 3 games, lose 2 and draw 2, lose 1 and draw 3, or draw all 5. There are probably other permutations but you get the point. If they drop any more points I just can't see them winning it.

It's not over yet, but if we beat West Ham, I don't then see any way we could be stopped, apart from a complete and utter record breaking catastrophe. No matter what they do.

If we beat West Ham, isn't that 6 in a row??

But then, we are pretty good at things that are pretty hard to do...

[AKCJ]

Hahaha - sorry guys was really busy yesterday afternoon and today - here it is:

 

UPDATE after Sunderland

 

 

​So obviously as we all know by now - we are but 9 points away from the title, regardless of any other results. With 15 points to play for, that's 3 wins, or 2 wins and 3 draws. But of course the 9 points needed can only go down. Spurs really can't afford to drop much at all, assuming we don't come unstuck ourselves. 

 

We can drop 6 points in the next 5 games and still get the 9 points required - a rate of 1.2 points dropped per game - when our average so far this season is 0.81 (27 points dropped in 33 games). 

 

We can look at tables and stats all we want, but what is likely to occur in the next few matches? It's very conceivable that both teams will drop a few points. With our cushion, that's where it get's worse for Spurs. For instance, if we get just 4 more points, and spurs drop 4 points it's over. Ultimately there's very little margin for error for Spurs. 

 

But this discussion is assuming that we will continue to slug it out as we have recently and find a way to win. Can we really just keep plodding on? Who knows. But I think things could get very tight, if we were to lose against a very good West Ham, with Carroll and Payet in great form, and Spurs take the initiative with a win at Stoke. 

 

 

All of a sudden we could have 'only' a 4 point gap. And sure that's technically still a 'two-result' cushion with 4 games to go, but the squad could become self-aware and feel like they've got something to lose. 

 

Of course we could win our next two, Spurs win and draw theirs and we'd be on 78 points, the same as Spurs' total potential max. 

 

Spurs can't get to 79 points.

 

If we get to 79 points and Spurs draw just one game then we've won the league.

[Papasmurf]

Hahaha - sorry guys was really busy yesterday afternoon and today - here it is:

 

 

 

 

You need to get your priorities straight.

[Grey Fox]

If we beat West Ham, isn't that 6 in a row??

But then, we are pretty good at things that are pretty hard to do...

 

Yes but that will have been very hard.  I think the first goal will be massive in these games.  The last time we went behind first was West Brom, and we didn't win the game.  The last time they went behind was Liverpool and again they didn't win it.  We are both very good at defending leads.  If Stoke score first against them then they have a real task.  They know they need to win the game.  If West Ham score first it will also make things more difficult for us to get the 3 points.  I'm still confident we can do it though.

 

Edit:

 

I've looked into the last 3 times each of us conceded the first goal (league).

 

Us: Drew 2-2 with West Brom, Lost 1-0 to Liverpool, Beat West Brom 3-2 (way back in October).

 

Spurs: Drew 1-1 with Liverpool, Drew 2-2 with Arsenal, Lost 1-0 to West Ham.

 

Only one win amongst us both from those 6 games.  We have both taken the lead an amazing amount of times this season.  Who scores first in these next few games could be the key to who ends up winning the title. 

 

Especially for Spurs, who must win all 5 games (IMO).  It's kind of like an away goals rule for them, each time they go behind they then have to score 2.  We can afford 3 draws as long as we win 2.  The extra pressure should begin to tell on them if they ever go behind in a game.  We'll see.