Bazly Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 After the Spurs West Brom draw last night the odds on Leicester City winning the EPL plummeted to 25-1 on. The 5 points required to secure the win in the league dropped to 3 as Spurs dropped two points. Now, all Leicester need is that Spurs don't better our own result next weekend at Man U. That means we could lose next Sunday and there is still a very high probability the league will be over on Monday after Spurs face and probably lose to Chelsea They were shit poor last night and should lose Alli through suspension, the 4 - 0 win on Sunday seems to have badly affected Spurs mentally. LC Points this weekend Spurs points this weekend3 0 GAME OVER1 0 GAME OVER 3 3 GAME OVER 3 1 GAME OVER 0 0 GAME OVER 1 1 GAME OVER 0 3 GAME NOT OVER - Spurs win - no chance 1 3 GAME NOT OVER - Spurs win - no chance 0 1 GAME NOT OVER - The only real chance its not all over A draw for us at Man U and it really should be all over, a win and it is. I can't see us winning it at Man U but I can't see Spurs winning at Chelsea either. Those hoping the race will end at home need us to lose on Sunday and Spurs to not lose on Monday. It'd be ideal Holywood to have Vardy securing the title at home against Everton but wishing LC to lose on Sunday would just be plain perverse. Draw on Sunday and the league chase is as good as finished. I'm going for a Monday night crowning after a draw Sunday and Spurs who haven't won at Chelsea in a generation losing. The only conceivable way the chase carries on is if we lose and Spurs draw. I'm down for a cue celebration party on 7th May having already been declared champions. Time to buy those Champions scarves ready for a display on the 7th of May.
ARM1968 Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 I think Tottenham know it's done. Wouldn't bank on Smelly Deli getting a ban though. Just think as a team they know the race is run. Chelsea being so obviously against them and our crushing result against the Swans has literally knocked the stuffing out of them.
ramboacdc Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 so a win seals it but a draw or a loss and it rolls into the chelsea spurs game? i dont think i can take another monday night of this!
SSLazio1900 Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 What I don't like is that it's quite possible to lose at MUFC while Spurs wins at Chelsea. Then it's back on 4 points difference and huge pressure to beat Everton. If Leicester only gets 1 point with Everton and Spurs wins again then the difference is only 2... ...and then Leicester HAS TO WIN at Chelsea (and Spurs win again Thursday time on the trot) This is really not impossible. Leicester has one last must win game: Everton.
Bazly Posted 26 April 2016 Author Posted 26 April 2016 Leicester has one last must win game: Everton. Calm down, enjoy the weekend. Its 90% it will be all over by Monday. For your permutations to work out its a 3% according to the ESPN computer, that not even working from a half full viewpoint.
ARM1968 Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Trust me. Tottenham are done. Mentally they are broken.
erlee Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Trust me. Tottenham are done. Mentally they are broken. BY next weekend - they 'll sweep those broken pieces into the dust-bin
Bayfox Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Stop worrying, one game at a time, slowly, slowly, 1st job, win at old trafford, then none of the rest matters. If that doesn't happen, let's worry about anything else after that. Enjoy the moment.
Westerby Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 After that punch, Dele Alli should change his name to Dele Ali in honour of the great one.
Clever Fox Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Tough against Utd at OT as they rarely lose there. But with what's at stake I expect more of the same from the lads. focused and solid at the back. With Simpson anf Morgan keeping Martial and Rashford quiet. If we can get just one pass De Gea then we'll shut up shop and see it out.
Culletonfox Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Jeff will be up for this one as Utd deemed him not good enough! Danny will want to win the Prem title on the club that got rid of him! Danny Simpson was rejected! Matty James another (will be watching) Mahrez will be back in form and a chance to strut his stuff on the biggest stage in football! I could go on, the boys will want this done on sunday at Old Trafford with the World watching! its all set up.......
shen Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Dismissing the possibility of a Spurs win at Stamford Bridge is just daft. History books are obviously useless this season so why should it count here? Spurs are 22 points better off than Chelsea, who in their right mind would say a Spurs win is unlikely?Like Ranieri says, we should go with the assumption that Spurs win their remaining games because it's the only way for our players to be on their toes.
Foxmeister Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 According to Oddschecker and taking into account the bookies edge we have a 28% chance of winning the title at OT - a 65% chance of winning the title by the end of Monday's game and a 95% chance overall.
Foxmeister Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 If it was a matter of sheer chance and there are 3 possible results in each game - that gives 729 possible outcomes of which 10 would make Spurs champions and 719 would see us win it. This gives our probability as 98.63%
inckley fox Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Trust me. Tottenham are done. Mentally they are broken. I've thought that before too so, while you may be right this time, I don't think you rule a side as good as theirs out. We've had a three game patch during this season when we only picked up two points, and they have won three on the bounce. If this repeats, they win the league. Of course they could easily lose one of their remaining games, or draw a couple, and that would mean we already have enough (as it stands I don't think they'll get higher than 76), but I wouldn't rule out us dropping points and, even if we consider ourselves to have secured a good result, it could drive them on to get the win on Monday. Keep heads screwed on for another week or two and remember that it's about 'reality' rather than 'dreams' now!
Harry - LCFC Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 If we lose and Tottenham win this weekend it would be back on IMO. We'd still be massive favourites but I wouldn't be as relaxed about it as I am now.
Callabinho Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Since the Watford play offs defeat when we've needed to get a job done we've done it. We will beat man united and win the trophy on Sunday.
ThorpeAstleyFox Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 If it was a matter of sheer chance and there are 3 possible results in each game - that gives 729 possible outcomes of which 10 would make Spurs champions and 719 would see us win it. This gives our probability as 98.63% Speaking as a Maths teacher, you clearly did not pay attention during your probability lessons. Be careful today as there is a 50% chance that you will be murdered by a blade-toting meerkat - after all, it will either happen or it won't.
Gerard Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Trust me. Tottenham are done. Mentally they are broken. BY next weekend - they 'll sweep those broken pieces into the dust-bin The title hasn't been won yet so let's concentrate on the job in hand rather than all this self congratulating. There are two really important games left: Chelsea vs Tottenham Leicester vs Everton. If both those games go against us then the title race is blown wide open again.
ARM1968 Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Gerard - if you've read any of my recent posts in other threads I very much reiterate that point - it isn't won yet. I won't truly believe until it's a mathmatical certainty. However I believe my point about Spurs to be true. Prior to last nights match Loris was saying that finishing 2nd was a great achievement. That even before our demolition of Swansea. Last night Tottenham buckled second half and their players were distraught by the final whistle. They also know Chelsea will be bang up for beating them and that is very possible. We still have to win it, but Spurs are shot. They are a great side and will be title challengers again next year.
Foxmeister Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Speaking as a Maths teacher, you clearly did not pay attention during your probability lessons. Be careful today as there is a 50% chance that you will be murdered by a blade-toting meerkat - after all, it will either happen or it won't. By sheer chance I meant applying a one third probability of a win, lose or draw to each game. Thanks for the heads up about the meerkat though. Jeez!!!
Gerard Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Gerard - if you've read any of my recent posts in other threads I very much reiterate that point - it isn't won yet. I won't truly believe until it's a mathmatical certainty. However I believe my point about Spurs to be true. Prior to last nights match Loris was saying that finishing 2nd was a great achievement. That even before our demolition of Swansea. Last night Tottenham buckled second half and their players were distraught by the final whistle. They also know Chelsea will be bang up for beating them and that is very possible. We still have to win it, but Spurs are shot. They are a great side and will be title challengers again next year. They're not shot at all, they'll be up for the Chelsea match if we fail to win at Man Utd. The next three games could feasibly be: Man Utd beat Leicester Tottenham beat Chelsea Leicester draw with Everton. Tottenham will go into the Southampton at home match knowing if they win that then Leicester will have to win away at Chelsea last game of the season to secure the title. Tottenham dropping two points yesterday was massive but we probably won't win in Manchester and if Tottenham beat Chelsea there is huge pressure on us to beat Everton.
AyewJoking Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 with regards to spurs losing alli for mondays game, look how long it took to decide vardy's fate. or would alli's suspension be a different process?
shen Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 If it was a matter of sheer chance and there are 3 possible results in each game - that gives 729 possible outcomes of which 10 would make Spurs champions and 719 would see us win it. This gives our probability as 98.63% there are more than 10 outcomes which would make Spurs champions... ?
Alf Bentley Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 If it was a matter of sheer chance and there are 3 possible results in each game - that gives 729 possible outcomes of which 10 would make Spurs champions and 719 would see us win it. This gives our probability as 98.63% Call me a sad case, but I had to work out the 10 "Spurs champions" outcomes (will leave the 719 "LCFC champs" outcomes to someone else).... 1. We lose v. MU & draw v. Everton & Chelsea; they win all 3 of their matches (78pts each) 2. We lose v. Everton & draw v. MU & CFC; they win all 3 (78pts each) 3. We lose v CFC & draw v MU & Everton; they win all 3 (78pts each) 4. We lose v. MU & Everton, draw v. CFC; they win all 3 (LC 77pts, TH 78pts) 5. We lose v. MU & CFC, draw v. Everton; they win all 3 (LC 77pts, TH 78pts) 6. We lose v. Everton & CFC, draw v. MU; they win all 3 (LC 77pts, TH 78pts) 7. We lose all 3; they win all 3 (LC 76pts, TH 78pts) 8. We lose all 3; they draw v. CFC, win v. Saints & NUFC (76pts each) 9. We lose all 3; they win v. CFC, draw v. Saints & win v. NUFC (76pts each) 10. We lose all 3; they win v. CFC & Saints, draw v. NUFC (76pts each) Attempt at a bonus point: It is now statistically impossible for us to win the title on goal difference, even if we win a match 20-0 or Spurs lose one by the same margin. Because if we win a single match, we're champions on points - and if Spurs lose a single match, we're champions on points. If we end up level on points, Spurs are champions.
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