The Final Run In - Maths and Psychology

[Lineker's Lugs]

Correct

To make it simple

The title is ours if we win against Man Utd, it doesn't matter what Spurs do

The title is ours if we draw against Man Utd and Spurs draw/lose against Chelsea

The title is ours if we lost against Man Utd and Spurs lose against Chelsea

It will only go to the next game if we lose against Man Utd and Spurs win against Chelsea in which case the same outcomes above will still apply but replace Man Utd with Everton and Chelsea with Southampton

There's one other scenario where it goes to the next game. We lose on Sunday and Spurs draw on Monday. Then we'll need a draw or win against Everton, or for Spurs not to win against Southampton.

[Jimbo]

I'd like to know this as well.

I've heard from a few people that we will be presented with the trophy after the Everton game if it's over this weekend. Some of those people are stewards at the club and some work in the media department #itk

[BigWesMorgan]

If I comes down to us having to Win at Chelsea or the title is spurs'. Do Chelsea purposely play badly?

[stripeyfox]

I'd like to know this as well.

A lot of people seem to be not understanding the trophy presentation protocol.

I don't think you will see it "officially" mentioned anywhere due to the risk of "tempting fate" but the preference is for the trophy to be presented to the winners at the last home game.

If we win the title on Sunday at Old Trafford - Presentation will be after Everton game

If we win the title on or before the Everton game - Presentation will be after Everton game

If we win the title at the Chelsea game - Presentation will be after Chelsea match

There are several precedents for this as has been noted in several other threads

The trophy will be waiting for us at the KP at the Everton game. If we don't win it, they'll pack it back up and take it and a replica to Stamford Bridge/St James Park to present to the winners.

[billyfox1]

There's one other scenario where it goes to the next game. We lose on Sunday and Spurs draw on Monday. Then we'll need a draw or win against Everton, or for Spurs not to win against Southampton.

Or if we draw with Man Utd and Spurs beat Chelsea

[NewEnglandFox]

Surprisingly different probabilities by 2 big sites but still the same result.

 

[fuchsntf]

The scary thought, Newcastle team will get a glimpse of the trophy as they go down......

Our anthem would become...Tears of a clown.

[ARM1968]

How about this. Spuds don't win another match all season.

[Reg Vardy]

How about Leicester have already beaten Spurs, West Ham, Man City away.....no reason why we can't Sunday.....what a place to win it...ironically Ulloa with the winner.....

[weller54]

How about this. Spuds don't win another match all season.

Chelsea 3 Spuds 0

Spuds 1 Southampton 1

Newcastle 2 Spuds 1

[ceredigion]

Am I right in thinking that if Spurs and us both draw our next games we will be champions?

 

Spurs must better our result this weekend to stay in the race. If they do that, the extent of the betterment, i.e whether they gain 1, 2 or 3 points on us will determine the nature of their next task.

[HereBeFoxes]

Knife toting merekat?

Knifé Toting Merékat - pacey left winger, also comfortable in the holding role and tracking back, currently playing for Amiens and the Senegal U-21s? We should sign him.

[Bazly]

I think to little emphasis has been credited to the psychology applied by in particular Ranieri which has been a master class. I Can't imagine the previous manager would have kept his cool and focus quite as adeptly.

 

To focus only on the next goal, the next hurdle, the next line to cross has worked really well to keep expectations in check and therefore pressure on the team from building to a level beyond what they could handle. First it was 40 points, then it was top 6, then top 4 followed by top 3 and finally top slot. As each target met, OK lets see what's next. All, for almost 150 days from a top of the table position. Absolutely brilliant psychology, masterly implemented.

 

Onto the opposition. Never denigrating the opposition or officials makes Ranieri a difficult man to dislike. The opposition managers, even their supporters and the media think Ranieri is a top bloke. That's got to help the players know they are playing for a top man. With particular regard to Spurs the assertion they 'will win' all their remaining games is a real mind games killer. It had the Spurs fans believing they would win every game which piles expectation and pressure on the team. As soon as the expectation is, that you win every game its a real disappointment when you don't. Leicester City has never had that, still people don't really expect us to win its always a pleasant surprise. The crash never happened probably in part because it was expected to happen. Similarly Spurs never won every game because it was expected to happen and against West Brom they were massively deflated. For Leicester, even the loss at Arsenal was a victory of endeavour against adversity.

 

Spurs had two opportunities to lead the EPL this year and failed on both occasions when expected to do so. Spurs don't have the mental stamina to win the EPL, they are mentally not up to the job. Whereas, I suspect the trials of last season has given the Leicester team fortitude in buckets. Its a lot more stressful fighting relegation than it ever is chasing the top prize. Somehow winning regularly feels good which is probably why the fashionable clubs have a lot of never been near the ground supporters.

 

We have to hope that next year the expectations aren't raised too high and Ranieri will have an important role to play in that, especially if there are several key player changes over the summer. I'd settle for anything above 18th in the league and of course, Champions League winners in 2017.

[Guest MarshallForEngland]

[inckley fox]

I agree that Ranieri has got it spot on psychologically. The timing of the revelation that we were going for the league was incredible. But he's learned from the disappointments he had in the past - Roma, for instance, where his title challenge evaporated in the final weeks of the season.

 

Of course, it could still go wrong from here. It's likely that we'll need one more highly impressive result from three potentially tricky fixtures. I certainly don't think we help ourselves saying 'Spurs aren't mentally up to the job', because that sort of comment - from us, from pundits, from their fans - could drive them on. We haven't won anything yet, and talking as if we have may unnecessarily offer ammunition to Spurs and to our opponents.

 

What encourages me, and will even if we drop points to Spurs over the next round of games, has been that our players and managers have gone out of their way to avoid this trap. They know there's still work to be done, and if there is complacency among fans it hasn't crept onto the pitch yet. Whereas Spurs were proudly talking about 'hunting Leicester down', we were silent on Monday, and that will help to focus the players even if it goes wrong this weekend.

[MonmoreStef]

It should not really matter but we could have done with Spurs playing first this week. I don't see them beating Chelsea but a Man Utd win could easily be the lift they need.

[onekeithweller]

Shouldn't we be five thousand to one on now?

[iLikeFoxes]

BY next weekend - they 'll sweep those broken pieces into the dust-bin

It doesn't take much to turn the table. If worst case scenario plays out this weekend, the race is very much on. We need to play to win against every side we face. Here in the U.S., in american football, there is the idea of a "prevent" defense which is what you call parking the bus. A prevent defense always prevents you from winning is the joke, but also the truth.

Foxes, win with the game and tactics that brought you this far. Be prepared to live with the result after laying it all on the line. Never quit.

Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

[Foxmeister]

I'll give the 719 a miss!

 

I'm not enough of a statto to come up with a proper statistical response to your question about a draw on Sunday, but logic suggests to me that a draw makes us more likely to win it.

For a start, it eliminates 7 out of 10 of their title-winning options. We'd be on 77 points. It's impossible for them to end up with 77 points, so they'd need 78 - so would have to win all 3 of their matches. Meanwhile, we'd still have our 2 matches that we're most likely to win (Man Utd is surely the hardest prospect of the 3?).

 

 

 

Absolutely right. As others have pointed out, it wouldn't be that massive a shock if we lost at Man Utd and Spurs won at Chelsea.....then a one-off stinker of a performance v. Everton, or a Jon Moss-type ref or simple bad luck and we could end up needing to win at Chelsea. I reckon it'll be done by Monday evening, though - Sunday would be good!

But it also eliminates 483 of ours - so we go from 719 out of 729 (98.63%) to 240 out 243 (98.77%) so you're right a very slight rise!!

[carled]

So what about an 11-man line-up on the goal line either for all 3 games or as long as it takes until Spurs lose/draw?  Can you imagine the opposition lining up to leather the ball at a defensive wall on the line or try and smash it into the 2ft gap above Kante's head :-)  The seethe from Spurs would be delicious.