David Hankey Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 What's all this bollocks folk are surmising. We draw at Old Trafford, Chelski beat the Spuds, title is ours and it's as simple as that.
Monk Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Or - we need to match or better Spurs result v Chelsea, with a win sealing it on Sunday.
Great Boos Up Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 So, just to clarify; it's statistically a one tenth chance of probability to assume that we will lose the title to mathematically speaking blade-toting meerkat's ?
Monk Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 No that's just % of the outcomes that could go our way but does not indicate the probability. Sorry. Geek here.
Alf Bentley Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Or - we need to match or better Spurs result v Chelsea, with a win sealing it on Sunday. A win seals it for us on Sunday (or in either of our other 2 matches), regardless of their results or our other results. If we win on Sunday, then lose 25-0 v. Everton & Chelsea, we'd have 79 points.....admittedly with a disappointing goal difference. If Spurs win all 3 of their matches 25-0, they'll have 78 points......admittedly with an impressive goal difference (which they'd use to claim a moral victory, of course ) If we win any of our 3 matches, we're champions. If Spurs lose any of their 3 matches, we're champions!
Manwell Pablo Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Anything other than us losing and them winning at the weekend I am happy. Even then, Everton at home's a better opportunity anyway.
Foxmeister Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Call me a sad case, but I had to work out the 10 "Spurs champions" outcomes (will leave the 719 "LCFC champs" outcomes to someone else).... 1. We lose v. MU & draw v. Everton & Chelsea; they win all 3 of their matches (78pts each) 2. We lose v. Everton & draw v. MU & CFC; they win all 3 (78pts each) 3. We lose v CFC & draw v MU & Everton; they win all 3 (78pts each) 4. We lose v. MU & Everton, draw v. CFC; they win all 3 (LC 77pts, TH 78pts) 5. We lose v. MU & CFC, draw v. Everton; they win all 3 (LC 77pts, TH 78pts) 6. We lose v. Everton & CFC, draw v. MU; they win all 3 (LC 77pts, TH 78pts) 7. We lose all 3; they win all 3 (LC 76pts, TH 78pts) 8. We lose all 3; they draw v. CFC, win v. Saints & NUFC (76pts each) 9. We lose all 3; they win v. CFC, draw v. Saints & win v. NUFC (76pts each) 10. We lose all 3; they win v. CFC & Saints, draw v. NUFC (76pts each) Attempt at a bonus point: It is now statistically impossible for us to win the title on goal difference, even if we win a match 20-0 or Spurs lose one by the same margin. Because if we win a single match, we're champions on points - and if Spurs lose a single match, we're champions on points. If we end up level on points, Spurs are champions. I won't call you a sad case, after all it was me who worked it out in the first place. You've got the 10 I got aswell and the bonus point! if our goal difference improves or there's get worse we win the title on points (not in the boxing sense). You can have another bonus point for listing the 719 that make us champions! One interesting question for me is would a draw on Sunday make us more or less likely to win it?
Foxmeister Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 A win seals it for us on Sunday (or in either of our other 2 matches), regardless of their results or our other results. If we win on Sunday, then lose 25-0 v. Everton & Chelsea, we'd have 79 points.....admittedly with a disappointing goal difference. If Spurs win all 3 of their matches 25-0, they'll have 78 points......admittedly with an impressive goal difference (which they'd use to claim a moral victory, of course ) If we win any of our 3 matches, we're champions. If Spurs lose any of their 3 matches, we're champions! If that happens Chris Kamara will combust!!
Sharpe's Foxes Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 While its unlikely anything is possible. All it takes is another Jon Moss in an Everton game to derail that game and equalize the quality on the pitch for Everton or a Jon Moss taking Mahrez away with red card in the Man U game. So until we officially have the points nothing is sealed.
KP Fox Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Am I right in thinking that if Spurs and us both draw our next games we will be champions?
ROB-THE-BLUE Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Am I right in thinking that if Spurs and us both draw our next games we will be champions? Yes. We'd be 7 points clear with 6 available
Alf Bentley Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 I won't call you a sad case, after all it was me who worked it out in the first place. You've got the 10 I got aswell and the bonus point! if our goal difference improves or there's get worse we win the title on points (not in the boxing sense). You can have another bonus point for listing the 719 that make us champions! One interesting question for me is would a draw on Sunday make us more or less likely to win it? I'll give the 719 a miss! I'm not enough of a statto to come up with a proper statistical response to your question about a draw on Sunday, but logic suggests to me that a draw makes us more likely to win it. For a start, it eliminates 7 out of 10 of their title-winning options. We'd be on 77 points. It's impossible for them to end up with 77 points, so they'd need 78 - so would have to win all 3 of their matches. Meanwhile, we'd still have our 2 matches that we're most likely to win (Man Utd is surely the hardest prospect of the 3?). While its unlikely anything is possible. All it takes is another Jon Moss in an Everton game to derail that game and equalize the quality on the pitch for Everton or a Jon Moss taking Mahrez away with red card in the Man U game. So until we officially have the points nothing is sealed. Absolutely right. As others have pointed out, it wouldn't be that massive a shock if we lost at Man Utd and Spurs won at Chelsea.....then a one-off stinker of a performance v. Everton, or a Jon Moss-type ref or simple bad luck and we could end up needing to win at Chelsea. I reckon it'll be done by Monday evening, though - Sunday would be good!
simFox Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Don't forget Spurs just took a massive kick in the scrote and may lose Muhammed Deli Ali for the rest of the season, not forgetting Dier bolical potentially injured. Kane was nearly balling during the post match interview and poch looked like a frustrated teenager on the sidelines. Chelsea are ready to pounce and give their fans a grand finale to a crap season, no doubt sensing the wounded little fledgling chickens the fighing cocks have turned out to be. We just need a drawer, Tottenham will do the rest themselves.
Sharpe's Foxes Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Don't forget Spurs just took a massive kick in the scrote and may lose Muhammed Deli Ali for the rest of the season, not forgetting Dier bolical potentially injured. Kane was nearly balling during the post match interview and poch looked like a frustrated teenager on the sidelines. Chelsea are ready to pounce and give their fans a grand finale to a crap season, no doubt sensing the wounded little fledgling chickens the fighing cocks have turned out to be. We just need a drawer, Tottenham will do the rest themselves. Once they lose Delli Ding Delli Dong it is pretty much over for them. They are not the same team without him and can't rely on 1-0 bunker siege clean sheet tactics like we can.
Oxfordfox83 Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Call me a sad case, but I had to work out the 10 "Spurs champions" outcomes (will leave the 719 "LCFC champs" outcomes to someone else).... 1. We lose v. MU & draw v. Everton & Chelsea; they win all 3 of their matches (78pts each) 2. We lose v. Everton & draw v. MU & CFC; they win all 3 (78pts each) 3. We lose v CFC & draw v MU & Everton; they win all 3 (78pts each) 4. We lose v. MU & Everton, draw v. CFC; they win all 3 (LC 77pts, TH 78pts) 5. We lose v. MU & CFC, draw v. Everton; they win all 3 (LC 77pts, TH 78pts) 6. We lose v. Everton & CFC, draw v. MU; they win all 3 (LC 77pts, TH 78pts) 7. We lose all 3; they win all 3 (LC 76pts, TH 78pts) 8. We lose all 3; they draw v. CFC, win v. Saints & NUFC (76pts each) 9. We lose all 3; they win v. CFC, draw v. Saints & win v. NUFC (76pts each) 10. We lose all 3; they win v. CFC & Saints, draw v. NUFC (76pts each) Attempt at a bonus point: It is now statistically impossible for us to win the title on goal difference, even if we win a match 20-0 or Spurs lose one by the same margin. Because if we win a single match, we're champions on points - and if Spurs lose a single match, we're champions on points. If we end up level on points, Spurs are champions. Massive round of applause for that last observation-excellent!
Number 6 Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Before this weekend I always thought 4 Spurs wins would make it very tough for us, but any dropped Spurs points would see us win it. I still think that's the case. We have 3 shots at winning the title now. Ok, we don't want it to go to the last day but even if it did, it's in our hands. Point at OT at least would be great: we're lacking Vardy and would mean we could still win title by drawing last 2. Also would mean Spurs have to win (although they kind of do need all 3 really anyway I think).
Rusko187 Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 I really can't see Spuds beating Chelsea, you look at their body language last night and they knew they blew it. Going to be without Alli and likely to be without Dier playing a Chelsea side which has just come off the back of a convincing win, the momentum will play into Chelseas hands.... They will throw the kitchen sink at Spuds to put that final nail in the coffin!
biggs Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 We will beat Man U 0 - 1 Leicester and after that it just won't matter anymore.
HereBeFoxes Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 So in a vain effort to stave off the again-growing anxiety following a brief respite after Swansea and another at 9:53 last night, I've made a simple run-in simulator. I've assigned probabilities to the 3 possible outcomes of the 6 remaining matches and then run 10,000 simulations of the set of results based on those probabilities, summed up the resultant points and see who comes out on top. I used the following (pessimistic?) probabilities: LCFC vs Man U: 20% win, 20% draw, 60% loss [in all these the 'win' is for either us or Spurs as may be] vs Everton: 40% win, 20% draw, 40% loss vs Chelsea: 30% win, 20% draw, 50% loss Spurs vs Chelsea: 40% win, 30% draw, 30% loss vs Soton: 60% win, 30% draw, 10% loss vs Newcastle: 80% win, 10% draw, 10% loss With these probabilities we come out on top in 90% of possible scenarios. This should make me feel better. For some reason it doesn't seem to be working... If anyone wants me to run it with other percentage chances for the outcomes happy to! Can eg assign say 100% chance that spurs will beat N'cslte and we'll definitely lose to Man U: with the other games' probabilities as above we still come out on top in 84% of scenarios.
ultrafox27 Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 I guess it will be LC Points this weekend Spurs points this weekend3 0 GAME OVER
Gerard Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Am I right in thinking that if Spurs and us both draw our next games we will be champions? We win the title this weekend as long as Spurs don't get a better result away at Chelsea than we do away at Man Utd.
jammie82uk Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 Am I right in thinking that if Spurs and us both draw our next games we will be champions?Correct To make it simple The title is ours if we win against Man Utd, it doesn't matter what Spurs do The title is ours if we draw against Man Utd and Spurs draw/lose against Chelsea The title is ours if we lost against Man Utd and Spurs lose against Chelsea It will only go to the next game if we lose against Man Utd and Spurs win against Chelsea in which case the same outcomes above will still apply but replace Man Utd with Everton and Chelsea with Southampton
stix Posted 26 April 2016 Posted 26 April 2016 If we win, do we get the trophy Sunday? I'd like to know this as well.
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