The People's Hero Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 I mention this to give a bit of advice about betting on transfers. 2 weeks ago I got a note from one of the underwriters I do a bit of work with. He's connected at West Brom and advised I place the following bets: Sakho to move to West Brom Berahino to move to Tottenham. I elected not to, since my colleague is mate's with David Sullivan's son and already knew West Ham were struggling to get rid of Sakho. He wants a big wage and to live in London. Basically he doesn't want to leave, but West Ham really want rid due to a number of incidents, some public knowledge some not. I didn't bet. Plenty did though. You never know how true it is, but £500 bets in their multiples were apparently being placed. Within not long, the markets were suspended in respect of these two selections (but not in respect of other destinations, with stoke as short as evens for Berahino, which I think is a big naughty) This was 95% done and dusted when Sakho to West Brom fell through. Just a bit of a warning with all the 'pile on' advice in the Mahrez thread. Whether you hear he is staying or going, until a contract is signed and until he's seen either starting next season in a Leicester shirt or holding up an Arsenal (or whatever shirt), then don't believe anything is 100%. I just worry when we see people saying 'don't worry, he's 100% staying, pile on' - people can jump in with a big bet and a change of heart may occur on the player's part or a contractual issue arises. Now these people I talk about can afford to lose this money, but its still going to hurt them. Ok the moves may still be salvageable, but it looks like the bookies win again!
Jon the Hat Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 Same applies to our ITK friends. We ask them to tell us stuff, so they do, then last last minute change happens, or people do the opposite of what they said they were going to do. Human nature. You also have to assume bookies are very very well connected!
The People's Hero Posted 5 August 2016 Author Posted 5 August 2016 Just now, Jon the Hat said: Same applies to our ITK friends. We ask them to tell us stuff, so they do, then last last minute change happens, or people do the opposite of what they said they were going to do. Human nature. You also have to assume bookies are very very well connected! Indeed. If someone is ITK they can only tell you what they know at that time. There are so many variables in a transfer, that things can obviously change. Doesn't make the ITK individual a liar.
Lesteban Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 Exactly right, but you shouldn't be gambling anything you aren't prepared to lose anyway. When I bet on Mahrez to stay at 2/1, it wasn't because of a so-called ITK, it was because I saw nothing at all that suggested he was leaving, and I was prepared to lose the money I staked for the potential reward. It's obviously a risk every time, the market wouldn't be open otherwise. If you go into it thinking you can't lose your money because you have "inside info", you will be burnt.
st albans fox Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 Don't worry - I was told by someone at the club. Esteban is staying for another season! lump on
treer Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 If a transfer was 100%, you wouldn't be able to get a bet, so I really don't understand the point of the post.
Tielemans63 Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 32 minutes ago, treer said: If a transfer was 100%, you wouldn't be able to get a bet, so I really don't understand the point of the post. Think TPH is just making the very valid point that a lot of the 'knowledge' that gets put out there isn't reliable and / or can change very quickly. I worked for one of the big bookies when I left Uni and I know for a fact that said bookies employ people to generate rumours to get the markets going. I think TPH is just offering a bit of advice, take it or leave it.
Holly B Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 2 hours ago, The People's Hero said: Indeed. If someone is ITK they can only tell you what they know at that time. There are so many variables in a transfer, that things can obviously change. Doesn't make the ITK individual a liar. Thought with Bert and Rama gone there were no more ITK's ? Is Albert still about ?
Aleksz Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 10 minutes ago, Holly B said: Thought with Bert and Rama gone there were no more ITK's ? Is Albert still about ? Rama is still knocking about and giving info isn't he?
AKCJ Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 24 minutes ago, Aleksz said: Rama is still knocking about and giving info isn't he? Nah he threw a paddy the other day.
Aleksz Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 3 minutes ago, AKCJ said: Nah he threw a paddy the other day. Oh wow. Always ends in tears.
sylofox Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 Anyone betting money because some random on a forum deserves what they get. Also OP if you believe everyone that claims to have lumped on you are as daft as them that have.
LinekersApples Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 Mahrez going nowhere in this window. Free money
LinekersApples Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 Don't lump on at this price. Do, when previously suggested at 5/2 and above. You may need a time machine to take advantage of this "advice". OP makes a good point. Nothing is guaranteed. That's gambling isn't it??
filbertstreet Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 what am I meant to be doing with these lumps man
LinekersApples Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 Mahrez just picked up his new car. Who does that then leaves???
Bluearmyfox28 Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 11 minutes ago, LinekersApples said: Mahrez just picked up his new car. Who does that then leaves??? A clever man!
bluebeau Posted 5 August 2016 Posted 5 August 2016 6 hours ago, Holly B said: Thought with Bert and Rama gone there were no more ITK's ? Is Albert still about ? When did Bert leave & why?
GaelicFox Posted 6 August 2016 Posted 6 August 2016 23 hours ago, The People's Hero said: I mention this to give a bit of advice about betting on transfers. 2 weeks ago I got a note from one of the underwriters I do a bit of work with. He's connected at West Brom and advised I place the following bets: Sakho to move to West Brom Berahino to move to Tottenham. I elected not to, since my colleague is mate's with David Sullivan's son and already knew West Ham were struggling to get rid of Sakho. He wants a big wage and to live in London. Basically he doesn't want to leave, but West Ham really want rid due to a number of incidents, some public knowledge some not. I didn't bet. Plenty did though. You never know how true it is, but £500 bets in their multiples were apparently being placed. Within not long, the markets were suspended in respect of these two selections (but not in respect of other destinations, with stoke as short as evens for Berahino, which I think is a big naughty) This was 95% done and dusted when Sakho to West Brom fell through. Just a bit of a warning with all the 'pile on' advice in the Mahrez thread. Whether you hear he is staying or going, until a contract is signed and until he's seen either starting next season in a Leicester shirt or holding up an Arsenal (or whatever shirt), then don't believe anything is 100%. I just worry when we see people saying 'don't worry, he's 100% staying, pile on' - people can jump in with a big bet and a change of heart may occur on the player's part or a contractual issue arises. Now these people I talk about can afford to lose this money, but its still going to hurt them. Ok the moves may still be salvageable, but it looks like the bookies win again! Who exactly was laying multiple monkeys on markets like this ? And surely your stating the bleeding obvious ? Any numpty betting on info on any forum or fool claiming to be ITK deserves to loose thier cash ... So the saying goes my betfair account is constantly topped up by idiots ! Long may that continue
The People's Hero Posted 6 August 2016 Author Posted 6 August 2016 Don't know. Not seen the bet slips. Ive seen his previous slips though. He had 500 on West Ham to win the FA cup last season. Yiu have to remember as well that those who really want to get a lot of money on can do by using others to bet or using multiple markets. I only wanted to warn people since I've been a bit uncomfortable with some things posted which give the impression deals are done and bets should be placed.
The People's Hero Posted 6 August 2016 Author Posted 6 August 2016 But as usual with the Internet, I'm not going to take any offence and if it helps anyone then great.
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