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[Buce]

2 hours ago, purpleronnie said:

It's incredible that someone linked to the right (the Thatcherite right) would at one time been run out of towns like fylde, now he's speaking in front of 1000's of cheering fans at their stadium.

 

I don't like him or his politics but has anyone else ever led 2 parties from nowhere to the brink of historic success?

 

Hitler managed one. 

 

Anyway success for Farage has been limited to the Euro elections. He has had zero impact in domestic elections. 

Edited 8 May 2019 by Buce

[David Guiza]

2 hours ago, purpleronnie said:

It's incredible that someone linked to the right (the Thatcherite right) would at one time been run out of towns like fylde, now he's speaking in front of 1000's of cheering fans at their stadium.

 

I don't like him or his politics but has anyone else ever led 2 parties from nowhere to the brink of historic success?

His sound bite politics is perfect for the world we live in where people want headlines and not articles. He can say so much (or in effect, nothing) in 140 characters and that's what plenty of people want to hear. It's the same reason Trump has such success too. When it comes to adding meat to the bones in the form of standing for election to the Commons he falls over and over again though.

 

It's amazing that he's had so many failures and still keeps popping up. The resilience of the man is impressive, even if he is just the turd that just will not flush. 

[Guest MattP]

7 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Is this the sort of company you should be keeping? This is the equivalent to me having "interesting conversations" with leading brewers about great new ales they're bringing out.... Get thee behind me, Satan! 

 

I presume Robinson is losing support due to all the brawling. I know opponents have chucked milkshakes on him, but coverage on local media showing you or your entourage getting handy with fists isn't a good look for folk who might agree with some stuff he says, but don't like thuggery & then see him on TV....

 

Doesn't surprise me that Brexit Party is leading in the Euros, especially with the Remainer side so fragmented and Labour's complicated stance. Did your contact say what figures they had for the Remainer parties in the Euros?

I'm guessing that Lib Dems and Greens will be up a bit due to the council elections and Change UK will nosedive unless they pull off a spectacularly good campaign - but Remainers still very fragmented, helping the Brexiteer cause given the electoral system.

 

As someone who wants the final outcome to be either Remain or, at worst, Soft Brexit, there's a major risk in the Brexit Party doing well.

We all know that they'll get a lot of votes as there's a sizeable minority who want Hard Brexit/No Deal regardless - and a lot more who just want us "to get it done" & govt to do other stuff.

 

Given Remainer fragmentation, it also looks likely Farage will top the poll. But there's a big difference between him topping the poll with, say, 25-30%, and getting 40%.

I'm concerned that 40% could be feasible if their Hard Brexit/No Deal vote is supplemented by a lot of protest votes - people just pissed off with the mess/govt/parliament/May&Corbyn.

I suspect there are an awful lot of people out there who don't have particularly strong views about Brexit either way, but who are sick of it dragging on, sick of the mess....and might express that by voting Farage. 

 

Peterborough is an interesting one. I was amazed that Labour picked up council seats off the Tories there after the MP scandal....but maybe voters draw a bigger distinction than I'd realised between local elections & national/European?

It was a phone call from an old friend and I couldn't put it down

He said they were prepared to offer Robinson at around 5/1 to start with but held off as they had no extensive polling, they'll put something up soon but he says he'll probably be about a 10% chance of being elected. They have the Brexit party at 1/6 to win the European elections which means they think it's about a 83% chance they'll win the European Elections. (35-36% is the current spread)

Remainers parties they expect the Lib Dems to be the highest but to still finish behind Labour (18-19%LIB DEMS - 27%LABOUR) - Change UK aren't even hitting 10%.

RE: Peterborough - the odds are pretty much even money the pair across the board so they all seem to have it as a 50/50 race between BP and Labour. Tories 16/1 to win a seat they won easily just over three years ago I can't believe how much the party has taken off, Flyde, Peterborough, Newport and Farage is selling out thousand+ seater arenas, I don't think many in parliament realise just how annoyed many people out there are.

 

2 hours ago, Buce said:

Hitler managed one. 

 

Anyway success for Farage has been limited to the Euro elections. He has has zero impact in domestic elections. 

I don't think that's accurate. He obviously hasn't been elected as it's very hard to do that with FPTP but it was the results and polling of UKIP that forced David Cameron to offer a referendum on Europe, I have no doubt Cameron would have given that away in a coalition but he ended up with him winning an election he thought he couldn't do and had to do it - that's a pretty big impact.

Farage could have taken a safe Tory seat at any point between 2005-2010 to just go away, I respect him for not doing so.

Edited 8 May 2019 by MattP

[Buce]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

It was a phone call from an old friend and I couldn't put it down

He said they were prepared to offer Robinson at around 5/1 to start with but held off as they had no extensive polling, they'll put something up soon but he says he'll probably be about a 10% chance of being elected. They have the Brexit party at 1/6 to win the European elections which means they think it's about a 83% chance they'll win the European Elections. (35-36% is the current spread)

Remainers parties they expect the Lib Dems to be the highest but to still finish behind Labout (18-19%) - Change UK aren't even hitting 10%.

RE: Peterborough - the odds are pretty much even money the pair across the board so they all seem to have it as a 50/50 race between BP and Labour. Tories 16/1 to win a seat they won easily just over three years ago I can't believe how much the party has taken off, Flyde, Peterborough, Newport and Farage is selling out thousand+ seater arenas, I don't think many in parliament realise just how annoyed many people out there are.

 

I don't think that's accurate. He obviously hasn't been elected as it's very hard to do that with FPTP but it was the results and polling of UKIP that forced David Cameron to offer a referendum on Europe, I have no doubt Cameron would have given that away in a coalition but he ended up with him winning an election he thought he couldn't do and had to do it - that's a pretty big impact.

Farage could have taken a safe Tory seat at any point between 2005-2010 to just go away, I respect him for not doing so.

3

 

That is an indirect impact at best, and certainly not 'leading a party to historic success' as Ronnie suggested.

[Guest MattP]

7 minutes ago, Buce said:

That is an indirect impact at best, and certainly not 'leading a party to historic success' as Ronnie suggested.

I think the "historic success" he referred to was winning the European election in 2014.

 

I think it was something like the first national election won by a party than wasn't Labour or the Tories for over 100 years - which is certainly historic. 

[davieG]

Former cabinet minister Esther McVey has announced she will stand for leader of the Conservative Party.

She told Talk Radio she had "enough support" from fellow MPs to "go forward" once Theresa May stands down.

International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has announced he will run and Commons leader Andrea Leadsom has said she is "considering" doing so.

Other senior Tories are expected to join them, with Mrs May promising to go once the first stage of Brexit is over.

The widely touted possible contenders include former and current members of the Cabinet, including Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss.

Ms McVey, a Brexit supporter and former TV presenter, quit as Work and Pensions Secretary last November in protest at Mrs May's withdrawal agreement with the EU.

[The Horse's Mouth]

On 08/05/2019 at 14:32, Buce said:

 

Hitler managed one. 

 

Anyway success for Farage has been limited to the Euro elections. He has had zero impact in domestic elections. 

He lead his party to have 13% of the vote share like, that's incredibly impressive for an outsider party. We'd have probably ended up with a minority government again as well, had it not been for UKIP taking Labour votes. 

[Alf Bentley]

8 minutes ago, davieG said:

Former cabinet minister Esther McVey has announced she will stand for leader of the Conservative Party.

She told Talk Radio she had "enough support" from fellow MPs to "go forward" once Theresa May stands down.

International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has announced he will run and Commons leader Andrea Leadsom has said she is "considering" doing so.

Other senior Tories are expected to join them, with Mrs May promising to go once the first stage of Brexit is over.

The widely touted possible contenders include former and current members of the Cabinet, including Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss.

Ms McVey, a Brexit supporter and former TV presenter, quit as Work and Pensions Secretary last November in protest at Mrs May's withdrawal agreement with the EU.

 

 

Sounds like it would be quicker to list the Tory MPs who are NOT planning to stand for the leadership.

[davieG]

26 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

Sounds like it would be quicker to list the Tory MPs who are NOT planning to stand for the leadership.

They should wait until after an election as there wont be quite so many to pick from.

[Buce]

 

How Remainers can tactically vote for the best result in the Euro election.

 

https://www.remainunited.org/

[Guest MattP]

15 minutes ago, Buce said:

How Remainers can tactically vote for the best result in the Euro election.

 

https://www.remainunited.org/

Link doesn't work.

[RoboFox]

19 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

How Remainers can tactically vote for the best result in the Euro election.

 

https://www.remainunited.org/

 

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

Link doesn't work.

 

Basically, if you're in England, vote Lib Dem.

 

[Buce]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

Link doesn't work.

 

Does for me.

[Buce]

4 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

 

 

Basically, if you're in England, vote Lib Dem.

 

 

It's subject to change, though, if Labour clarifies their stance - as things stand it treats them as a Leave party.

[Guest MattP]

28 minutes ago, Buce said:

It's subject to change, though, if Labour clarifies their stance - as things stand it treats them as a Leave party.

Labour stance is clarified now to be fair, it's just fantasy. 

 

We leave the European Union with their brilliant different customs arrangement that let's us be part of the decision making, failing that they want a general election. If Labour members are so keen on staying don't elect a lifelong Eurosceptic and his allies to run the party. 

 

Corbyn's position is smart and obvious, get Brexit but take no blame for it - if it goes wrong scream "Tory Brexit" in the same way you scream "Tory Cuts".

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, MattP said:

Labour stance is clarified now to be fair, it's just fantasy. 

 

We leave the European Union with their brilliant different customs arrangement that let's us be part of the decision making, failing that they want a general election. If Labour members are so keen on staying don't elect a lifelong Eurosceptic and his allies to run the party. 

 

Corbyn's position is smart and obvious, get Brexit but take no blame for it - if it goes wrong scream "Tory Brexit" in the same way you scream "Tory Cuts".

The idiot is not the one who screams it but the one who believes it without reason.

 

(Sorry I had to post this but to see the Royal Wedding thread at the top of the page makes me feel ill).

[Alf Bentley]

59 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

How Remainers can tactically vote for the best result in the Euro election.

 

https://www.remainunited.org/

 

Your link works fine for me. Sensible to vote with some awareness of the voting system.

 

Some of the assumptions on the site look dubious, though:

- They expect the Greens to lose all 3 of their MEPs despite their good result in the local elections & high profile of environmental issues?

- They expect Plaid to lose its MEP in Wales despite its main Tory & Labour rivals being so unpopular?

- They expect Change UK to get an MEP in the SE, but not the Greens?

 

I'm sure the Lib Dems will love this (part of me wonders if the whole thing is a dodgy Lib Dem scam - they're certainly not above dishonest campaigning).

I know they did well in the local elections, but I wonder if too much weight is being given to that - when the Greens didn't stand everywhere & Change UK didn't stand anywhere.

 

In some regions, recommending that people switch from Labour to Lib Dem risks electing Brexit Party MEPs instead:

e.g. East Midlands last time: UKIP 33%, Tory 26%, Labour 25%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 5%......and they're recommending a Lib Dem vote in a region where 15%+ will probably be required to elect an MEP?

I'm sure the Lib Dems will do better than in 2014, but more than 3 times better?! 

I suppose it makes sense if you view Labour as being the same as Farage (their current assumption).......but that's a pretty brainless assumption, in my view.

[Buce]

7 minutes ago, FIF said:

The idiot is not the one who screams it but the one who believes it without reason.

 

(Sorry I had to post this but to see the Royal Wedding thread at the top of the page makes me feel ill).

 

 

Sorry, mate.

 

If it makes you feel better my comment is nothing to do with it, just about knee-jerk censorship.

[Guest MattP]

8 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Your link works fine for me. Sensible to vote with some awareness of the voting system.

 

Some of the assumptions on the site look dubious, though:

- They expect the Greens to lose all 3 of their MEPs despite their good result in the local elections & high profile of environmental issues?

- They expect Plaid to lose its MEP in Wales despite its main Tory & Labour rivals being so unpopular?

- They expect Change UK to get an MEP in the SE, but not the Greens?

 

I'm sure the Lib Dems will love this (part of me wonders if the whole thing is a dodgy Lib Dem scam - they're certainly not above dishonest campaigning).

I know they did well in the local elections, but I wonder if too much weight is being given to that - when the Greens didn't stand everywhere & Change UK didn't stand anywhere.

 

In some regions, recommending that people switch from Labour to Lib Dem risks electing Brexit Party MEPs instead:

e.g. East Midlands last time: UKIP 33%, Tory 26%, Labour 25%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 5%......and they're recommending a Lib Dem vote in a region where 15%+ will probably be required to elect an MEP?

I'm sure the Lib Dems will do better than in 2014, but more than 3 times better?! 

I suppose it makes sense if you view Labour as being the same as Farage (their current assumption).......but that's a pretty brainless assumption, in my view.

Link works for me now as well.

 

Great analysis this, may well be a Liberal Democrat inspired project.

 

Totally baffled as to how they see Change UK ahead of the Greens in the South East - that's the area the Greens will be the absolute strongest.

[bovril]

1 hour ago, Buce said:

 

How Remainers can tactically vote for the best result in the Euro election.

 

https://www.remainunited.org/

 

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Link doesn't work.

Durr, doesn't work if you're not a remainer. 

[The Horse's Mouth]

dont think i could bring myself to vote lib dem, i'll most likely spoil my ballot 

[Alf Bentley]

39 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

Great analysis this, may well be a Liberal Democrat inspired project.

 

 

Web site belongs to  Centrum Campaign Ltd.

 

This company was set up by Gina Miller. As far as I'm aware she's not a Lib Dem member, but certainly a sympathiser.....to the extent that she had to deny rumours that she would stand to be the next LD leader!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45519607

[Dr The Singh]

Ester Mcvay is hot, looking forward to hearing she is our leader

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

Web site belongs to  Centrum Campaign Ltd.

 

This company was set up by Gina Miller. As far as I'm aware she's not a Lib Dem member, but certainly a sympathiser.....to the extent that she had to deny rumours that she would stand to be the next LD leader!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45519607

Outrageous.

 

Nothing to do with a Remain alliance or the best "anti-Brexit" result - all about the success of the Liberal Democrats. Shameless.

[Buce]

 

Has a government ever been as shambolic as this one?

 

 

Tories could come sixth in European elections, officials fear

Candidates say the party is ‘almost in denial’ over vote and will not publish manifesto

 

 

Conservative officials fear the party could come sixth in the European elections, with their support plummeting to single digits.

Candidates running in the election said the party was “almost in denial” that the poll was happening and continued to insist they would not need to take up their seats in the European parliament, despite fading prospects for a cross-party deal with Labour that would enable Brexit to happen before 2 July.

The fears of a dismal performance have been stoked by the fact that the party plans to spend no money on candidate campaigning, will not publish a manifesto and is refusing to hold a launch.

One MEP said candidates were funding their campaigns out of their own pockets, unlike previous years when there was a central pot of funding available. They have been told they are allowed to have their own regional manifestos, but many are not bothering, and there will be no central party manifesto.

“The thinking is that if we make no effort then we will have an excuse for having done so badly. But it is seriously embarrassing,” said one MEP.

 

Another Conservative source said internal data showed the party could do worse than the Brexit party, Labour, the Lib Dems, Change UK and even potentially the Greens, with support at less than 10%. That would translate to only a handful of seats, down from the current 22.

A second CCHQ source said the outlook was “absolutely dire” and worse even than the public pollsters were predicting because the party was planning to put in no effort whatsoever, apart from a free mailshot.

Part of the problem is the party’s activist base, as they are not motivated to campaign for the Conservatives when Brexit has not been delivered as previously promised. Surveys suggest around three in five members are planning to vote for Nigel Farage’s Brexit party.

After a meeting with Brandon Lewis, the Conservative party chairman, earlier this week, MEP candidates were left with the impression that Theresa May would give a speech next week setting out the party’s European election message. However, a No 10 source said there were “no plans” for such an intervention.

 

With a dire showing predicted, May is expected to make another effort to get her withdrawal bill through the House of Commons or let MPs vote on various different options for Brexit within the next two weeks.

The prime minister’s official spokeswoman said No 10 hoped to “bring forward” the bill before Whitsun recess on 23 May – the day of the European elections. However, she will only do this if there is enough support from across the House of Commons, including Labour, to stop it being voted down at the first hurdle.

One plan under consideration is publishing the bill before the 11-day break for MPs and then allowing them to debate and vote on it after they have had time to contemplate the results of the European elections, which are likely to lead to a strong showing for Farage’s Brexit party.

One cabinet minister said there was a case for daring Labour to vote it down, as that would put the pressure back on them.

However, if the withdrawal bill were to be voted down, the prime minister would have to prorogue parliament and put forward a new Queen’s Speech, but there is no certainty that she even has support for a new programme of legislation. If a Queen’s Speech fell then it could bring down the government.

Backing from the DUP would be crucial to getting through a Queen’s Speech but they could need a new agreement involving more money for Northern Ireland to achieve that.

In a sign May is gearing up for parliamentary battles ahead, she hosted lunch for Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, Nigel Dodds, the DUP Westminster leader, and Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the chief whip, at her Chequers country residence on Thursday.

The talks involved the drive to get the prime minister’s withdrawal agreement bill through parliament, as well as the confidence and supply deal that is due to expire at the end of this parliamentary session.

 

Sources close to the government said May made it clear she wants to restore the Northern Ireland assembly before leaving office and is open to a renewed confidence and supply agreement with the DUP.

May has refused to step down until Brexit is achieved, but a further array of Conservative candidates were jostling for position on Thursday in the expectation that she could soon be out of office.

Esther McVey, a Brexiter who quit the cabinet in protest at May’s Brexit deal, became the third Tory openly to declare her ambition to be prime minister, after Andrea Leadsom and Rory Stewart.

Another potential candidate, Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, also gave a wide-ranging speech on the future of the 21st century worker and warned that “a no-deal prime minister would not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons”.

David Gauke, the justice secretary who has his eye on the chancellorship, gave a speech warning against “culture wars” and against a no-deal Brexit, while Priti Patel, a former development secretary, gave a speech saying there should be a “new generation of political leaders to effectively take back control”.

 

Edited 9 May 2019 by Buce