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Yes N'Didi

The Race for Top 6

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25 minutes ago, Foxaholic ME said:

We have to learn to win when playing poorly all top teams do. So far Sheff u win looking better than at the time and the Man u  defeat worse as they are currently a very poor side.

so right. When we won the league, there was a run of games where we had to dig in and grind out the 1-0's.  When man utd were dominating the PL, they were not taking teams apart every week, often they had to win ugly. It is often said that a teams name is on the trophy when they are playing poorly yet still picking up points, and this is certainly true.  This is where we have fallen down over the last couple of years when we haven't been able to break teams down and then get caught by a sucker punch free kick or some such. If we have genuine top6/4 aspirations we need to pick up points in those sorts of games or when we are having an off day.

 

We all know that Man city and L'pool are a class above, yet even they have to dig deep and grind out the odd result over the course of the season to stay on top.

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  • 4 weeks later...
4 minutes ago, Yes N'Didi said:

5 more games +6 points on our expected results based on the last 5 years of data.

 

Spurs (H)

Result: Win

Average Points: 0.8 (1W/1D/3L)

Predicted Result: D

Verdict: +2

 

Newcastle (H)

Result: Win

Average Points: 1.5 (2W/2L)

Predicted Result: D

Verdict: +2

 

Liverpool (A)

Result: Loss

Average Points: 0.4 (2D/3L)

Predicted Result: L

Verdict +/- 0

 

Burnley (H)

Result: Win

Average Points: 2 (2W/2D)

Predicted Result: W

Verdict: +/- 0

 

Southampton (A)

Result: 

Average Points: 1.4 (2W/1D/2L)

Predicted Result: D

Verdict: +2

 

With 20 points from our opening 10 matches, and an average of 2 points per match, we are currently forecasted to finish with 76 points, which would be enough to have finished in the top four in the last 5 seasons. A top 4 finish is an average of 72 points and a top 6 finish an average of 65 points.

 

Our next 5 games are as follows. We have averaged 8.8 points over recent seasons. A return of 9 points (2 Wins, 3 Draws) would be expected. If we could turn Palace A and Everton H into wins, a draw at home to Arsenal and 4 wins from the next 5 games feels very achievable and would show another 4 point gain.

 

Palace (A)

Result: 

Average Points: 0.8 (1W/1D/3L)

Predicted Result: Draw

 

Arsenal (H)

Result: 

Average Points: 1.6 (2W/2D/1L)

Predicted Result: Draw

 

Brighton (A)

Result: 

Average Points: 2 (1W/1D)

Predicted Result: Win

 

Everton (H)

Result: 

Average Points: 1.4 (2W/1D/2L)

Predicted Result: Draw

 

Watford (H)

Result: 

Average Points: 3 (4W)

Predicted Result: Win

 

Did you predict we’d beat Newcastle 5-0 and Southampton 9-0?

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Just read the first couple pages... What difference can one month make, eh?

You might want to change the number in the title of this thread from 6 to 4*  

Other than that, good job with calculating all that! :thumbup:

 

*yeah I'm giddy and I don't care! Even if we were to finish beyond top 6 or 7... Gonna enjoy the ride while it lasts! :bounce::jump::banana:

Edited by Chester Dontlie
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21 minutes ago, Leeds Fox said:

 

4 of your 6 predictions were wrong lol

Not my predictions ha, this is using averages from the last 5 seasons to determine what the most likely outcome of each match is, this showing where improvements can be made to our overall points tally on a match by match basis. 

 

But it I don’t think anyone other than that nutcase from Bournemouth saw a 0-9 incoming lol

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5 minutes ago, Yes N'Didi said:

Not my predictions ha, this is using averages from the last 5 seasons to determine what the most likely outcome of each match is, this showing where improvements can be made to our overall points tally on a match by match basis. 

 

But it I don’t think anyone other than that nutcase from Bournemouth saw a 0-9 incoming lol

 

Fair enough mate, I was only messing.  

 

Who was the guy from Bournemouth? 

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Undefeated next 5 matches. All wins no draws. Have a feeling we're on a roll.

All matches will be hard fought with no more sugar highs like Southampton.

Forget about the draw against Crystal Palace. The past has no relevance now.

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10 minutes ago, SO1 said:

Undefeated next 5 matches. All wins no draws. Have a feeling we're on a roll.

All matches will be hard fought with no more sugar highs like Southampton.

Forget about the draw against Crystal Palace. The past has no relevance now.

 

Title is coming to Filbert Way again! :scarf::thumbup:

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49 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Am I the only one who doesn't see this as an effective way to determine this? 

It's not an effective way to determine what the result will be - but it is a good measure of where there is room for improvement. If the goal each season is to improve on our points tally each year then you can only look at where you have been. In the last five years we've had an incredible season, a season where we have scraped staying up and three mid table finishes. Based on where we are currently, you'd like to think we can win at least 4 of the next 5 matches, if not all 5. From a perspective of where can we improve our points tally, you would say turning an average return of 9 points from the same five fixtures into 12 or 15 points would show improvement.

 

There is a lot of hysteria (rightly so) about top 4 and top 6 - I think the ambition behind this exercise is to break it down into small segments where we can realistically see where improvements can be made. Like the dreaded xG stat, it is only as good as the information that goes into it - use it how you want, feel free to ignore it! :)

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21 hours ago, Yes N'Didi said:

5 more games +6 points on our expected results based on the last 5 years of data.

 

Spurs (H)

Result: Win

Average Points: 0.8 (1W/1D/3L)

Predicted Result: D

Verdict: +2

 

Newcastle (H)

Result: Win

Average Points: 1.5 (2W/2L)

Predicted Result: D

Verdict: +2

 

Liverpool (A)

Result: Loss

Average Points: 0.4 (2D/3L)

Predicted Result: L

Verdict +/- 0

 

Burnley (H)

Result: Win

Average Points: 2 (2W/2D)

Predicted Result: W

Verdict: +/- 0

 

Southampton (A)

Result: 

Average Points: 1.4 (2W/1D/2L)

Predicted Result: D

Verdict: +2

 

With 20 points from our opening 10 matches, and an average of 2 points per match, we are currently forecasted to finish with 76 points, which would be enough to have finished in the top four in the last 5 seasons. A top 4 finish is an average of 72 points and a top 6 finish an average of 65 points.

 

Our next 5 games are as follows. We have averaged 8.8 points over recent seasons. A return of 9 points (2 Wins, 3 Draws) would be expected. If we could turn Palace A and Everton H into wins, a draw at home to Arsenal and 4 wins from the next 5 games feels very achievable and would show another 4 point gain.

 

Palace (A)

Result: 

Average Points: 0.8 (1W/1D/3L)

Predicted Result: Draw

 

Arsenal (H)

Result: 

Average Points: 1.6 (2W/2D/1L)

Predicted Result: Draw

 

Brighton (A)

Result: 

Average Points: 2 (1W/1D)

Predicted Result: Win

 

Everton (H)

Result: 

Average Points: 1.4 (2W/1D/2L)

Predicted Result: Draw

 

Watford (H)

Result: 

Average Points: 3 (4W)

Predicted Result: Win

To be honest, we couldn't be facing Arsenal at a better time, as it's at home I'd hope for a win there. The most exciting win in those five fixtures though would definitely be against Crystal Palace, if we could kick that little bogey fixture in the bin it would lift our momentum even more. 

Edited by Nicolo Barella
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We have two tough matches followed b what should be 4/5 "easier" ones. We could easily go on an undefeated run up to xmas and be well into thirty odd points. having said that we will probably now thrash palace and Arsenal and lose the next four!

 

Seriously we have a real chance here to actually open up a significant gap. The final table is often not that dissimilar to what it looks like at the end of December (the usual spuds end of season meltdown apart). Arsenal usually have a dodgy patch around this time and with the shenanigans going on there at the moment I would not be surprised to see it happening again. I can actually see the top four staying exactly as it is at the moment.

 

Just cannot see Man utd getting top six at the minute, and Spurs not doing much better.  No doubt if we do finish in the top four it will not be because we have been good and deserve it, but because the rest were off form. This really could be the season that the established order of things gets turned over and two of the so called "big 6" find themselves lucky to be top half, and not just a one season wonder.

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4 minutes ago, urban fox said:

We have two tough matches followed b what should be 4/5 "easier" ones. We could easily go on an undefeated run up to xmas and be well into thirty odd points. having said that we will probably now thrash palace and Arsenal and lose the next four!

 

Seriously we have a real chance here to actually open up a significant gap. The final table is often not that dissimilar to what it looks like at the end of December (the usual spuds end of season meltdown apart). Arsenal usually have a dodgy patch around this time and with the shenanigans going on there at the moment I would not be surprised to see it happening again. I can actually see the top four staying exactly as it is at the moment.

 

Just cannot see Man utd getting top six at the minute, and Spurs not doing much better.  No doubt if we do finish in the top four it will not be because we have been good and deserve it, but because the rest were off form. This really could be the season that the established order of things gets turned over and two of the so called "big 6" find themselves lucky to be top half, and not just a one season wonder.

Personally think they will now get a run of form together. Their next six games are Everton (A), Sheffield Utd (H), West Ham (A), Bournemouth (H), Man Utd (A), Burnley (H). I think they would expect 3 points from every single one of those games.

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The key is to not constantly watch how the other top 6 is getting on, we have to worry about our own results & that’s it.

 

if I had to predict how many points we would get for the season after the start & form we are in it would look like this:

 

Palace - 1pt, Arsenal - 1pt, Brighton - 3pt, Everton 1pt, Watford 3pt, Villa 3pt, Norwich 3pt,  Man City 0pt, Liverpool 0pt, West Ham 1pt, Newcastle 1pt, Southampton 3pt, Burnley 1pt, West Ham 1pt, Chelsea 0pt, Wolves 1pt, Man City 0pt, Norwich 3pt, Villa 3pt, Watford 3pt, Brighton 3pt, Everton 1pt, Palace 3pt, Arsenal 0pt, Bournemouth 1pt, Sheffield Utd 3 pt, Spurs 0pt, Man U 0pt. 
 

leaves you with a total of 43 points + the 20 points we’ve already earned, gives you 63 points. I know some of the scores may seem a little harsh but would rather be more realistic & then anything better than that is just simply good going & should guarantee  you a place in Europe.

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8 minutes ago, Yes N'Didi said:

Personally think they will now get a run of form together. Their next six games are Everton (A), Sheffield Utd (H), West Ham (A), Bournemouth (H), Man Utd (A), Burnley (H). I think they would expect 3 points from every single one of those games.

Really? Everton are the most unpredictable side so you never know how they’ll turn out. Sheff Utd is a win, West Ham away is a really hard fixture, Bournemouth the same as Everton, Man U away again a really hard fixture & Burnley are the most solid team in the league. I would be very surprised if they expected 18 points from those 6 games.

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Under Rodgers we much better vs the weaker teams in the league but not there against the tougher teams.

 

I will expect us to beat arsenal due to their team issues and hapless manager.

Palace I will be happy with a draw.

The other 3 should be victories.

 

Whats so good feeling about my prediction is I think its realistic, not just been hopeful.

Edited by Chrysalis
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